Monday, March 10, 2025

Noteable Quoteable

Russia should 'introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social, and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics'.

 - Alexander Dugin - Foundations of Geopolitics, 1997

Highway Patrol

Here's some recognition of Wisconsin's contribution to the Highway Patrol.  

The 1972 AMC police patrol cars, the Ambassador and Matador, were specially designed law enforcement vehicles offered by American Motors Corporation (AMC). These vehicles were built to compete with police packages from the "Big Three" automakers—Ford, Chevrolet, and Chrysler—offering durability, performance, and affordability.


1972 AMC Ambassador Police Package

The AMC Ambassador was the larger of the two police models, featuring:

  • Wheelbase: 122 inches
  • Length: 210.78 inches
  • Width: 77.24 inches
  • Trunk Capacity: 18.2 cubic feet
  • Turning Circle Diameter: 40 feet 5 inches
  • Engine Options: Likely included the 360, 401 CID V8 engines, providing high torque for police pursuits.

The Ambassador was used by many police departments, including the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), which needed powerful, full-size patrol cars for highway and city duty.


1972 AMC Matador Police Package

The AMC Matador was a slightly smaller, more maneuverable police vehicle, featuring:

  • Wheelbase: 118 inches
  • Length: 206.05 inches
  • Width: 77.24 inches
  • Trunk Capacity: 18.2 cubic feet
  • Turning Circle Diameter: 39 feet
  • Engine Options: Similar to the Ambassador, the Matador could be equipped with 360, 401 CID V8 engines for high-speed pursuits.

The Matador became more widely used by police departments across the U.S., especially in city patrol roles. It gained significant recognition when the LAPD adopted it as their primary patrol car from 1972 to 1975.


Performance & Legacy

Both AMC police cars were known for:

  • Powerful V8 engines suitable for high-speed pursuits.
  • Spacious interiors accommodating police equipment.
  • Durability & reliability under tough patrol conditions.

The Matador, in particular, gained a strong reputation and was even featured in various TV shows and movies depicting law enforcement. By the late 1970s, however, AMC faced stiff competition from Ford and Chevrolet, leading to a decline in AMC's police vehicle sales.

Sunday, March 9, 2025

Child Safety

From the 1961 Sears Catalog: Auto Strap for front-seat tots.
 
My generation is further evidence of the Survival of the Fittest…..



Tariff Fatigue

Depending on various factors, opening an automobile assembly plant typically takes 2 to 5 years.  
 
Here’s a breakdown of the timeline:
 
1. Planning & Site Selection (6 months – 2 years)
Finding a suitable location
• Negotiating land acquisition and incentives
• Conducting feasibility studies and regulatory approvals
 
2. Design & Permitting (6 months – 1 year)
• Designing the plant layout and infrastructure
• Obtaining environmental and construction permits
 
3. Construction & Facility Setup (1 – 2 years)
• Building the factory, utilities, and support structures
• Installing assembly lines, robotics, and automation systems
 
4. Hiring & Workforce Training (6 months – 1 year)
• Recruiting workers and management
• Training employees on assembly processes and safety protocols
 
5. Testing & Production Ramp-up (6 months – 1 year)
• Testing machinery, refining processes, and ensuring quality control
• Gradually increasing production to full capacity
 
Factors That Can Affect the Timeline:
 
• Government approvals and incentives
• Supply chain readiness and equipment availability
• Labor market and workforce training needs
• Complexity of the vehicles being produced
 
Consider this; Tesla’s Gigafactories typically take 1.5 to 2 years, while traditional automakers can take 3 to 5 years to fully operationalize a new plant.
 
The bottom line is this is exceedingly complex and expensive.  It is not easy.  
 
Last week we were witness to serious stock market volatility following the President's announcement that tariffs would go into effect on all automobiles manufactured outside of our borders.  We can argue all day long about who should have seen this coming; but the markets don't like tariffs.  Nonetheless, it looks like Howard Lutnick, former head of Cantor Fitzgerald, who is a moderate on trade and is now commerce secretary may have gotten the ear of President Trump.  
 
One of the endearing qualities of Donald Trump is his fascination with the stock market as a barometer of his success.  Consequently, the White House has paused tariffs on automobiles assembled in Mexico and Canada for 30 days so that Ford, General Motors and Stellantis can produce their plan for re-shoring all of the manufacturing and assembly to the US.   As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt put it:  Get on it., start investing, start moving, shift production here to the United States of America, where they will pay no tariffs.
 
This is easier said than done because in the many decades that have passed since the North American free trade zone was created in 1992 automakers have built complex supply chains that cross multiple borders.
 
You're probably scratching your head and wondering what the heck.  It's not rocket science. Manufacturers achieve economies of scale by means of multiple large plants both here and abroad to supply assembly operations across North America* with stuff like engines, EV batteries and motors, transmissions, suspensions, body panels, seats and wiring harnesses.  Everything that is required to build an automobile.  I couple of years ago a handful of us got a tour of a Volkswagen assembly plant located in Dresden, Germany.  This is not unique to North America.
 
The brilliance of this manufacturing model is vehicles would be less affordable if all of their component parts had to be made in one country.    

In our household we have two newer vehicles.  A Ford Mustang Mach-E; assembled in Cuautitlan, Mexico with parts sourced in Europe and North America.  In December we purchased a Honda CR-V Hybrid; assembled in Greensburg, Indiana with parts sourced in Japan and North America.  We still have our trusty 1998 Chevy Silverado.  It was assembled in Pontiac, Michigan with parts sourced in North America.
 
A vehicle is considered an import when it is shipped to the states after final assembly in another country.  Factually, because of the complexity of supply chains nowadays it is almost next to impossible to tell an American car from and import by simply looking at the brand.
 
With the exception of the Great Recession and COVID; over the past couple of decades the annual number of imported vehicles sold in the US has consistently hovered around 8 million units.  Countries of origin, ranked from high to low are as follows:  Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Canada.  Domestic production peaked at 13 million units in 1999, fell during the Great Recession and rebounded to 12 million as consumer confidence returned.  Annual production since has been 10.6 to 11 million units.

As a recovering financial guy and erstwhile observer of all of the drama my take goes something like this:
  • The threat of tariffs appears to be real.  Is Trump bluffing?  Or is he willing to kill the hostages?  Who is the angel and devil sitting on his shoulders?
  • Last month, Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would blow a hole in the US auto industry; the largest manufacturing contributor to domestic GDP.
  • Moving everything to here is disruptive and would unnecessarily hobble the US auto industry.  Besides, it has the stink of Soviet central planning and government meddling with business all over it.
  • US automakers built their business models around government trade agreements; NAFTA (Clinton) and USMCA (Trump).  Commencing the undoing of more than thirty years of sophisticated business in thirty days is complicated and expensive.  It is not easy.  Much of it would be unfinished when Trump leaves office in four years.
  • There is that nagging likelihood of negative first quarter GDP.  The growing polarization of Elon Musk, falling consumer confidence, no budget reconciliation (yet), a looming debt ceiling and threat of government shutdown and the chaotically messy on-again, off-again policy messaging from the White House.  Business and markets abhor uncertainty.  
  •  Trump is sensitive to market volatility, drops in particular.  He's also sensitive to polling of his approval rating.
  • Finally, there is this immutable Rule of Thumb:  two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth = Recession. 
We shall see what we shall see.......

*North America includes Canada, Mexico and United States
 

 

Saturday, March 8, 2025

The King's Speech

On Tuesday, March 4th President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress.  I do not begrudge our President the opportunity to take a victory lap; particularly on the heels of six busy weeks of cabinet hearings, executive orders, reductions in force, court hearings, spending freezes, tariffs followed by pauses, starts and follow-up pauses of the the latter.

The speech was exceedingly long however; meaning the volume of dubious claims or lies was target-rich.  Nothing new under the sun; nevertheless, worthy of truthful daylight.  Consequently, from time to time one of more of the King's gems will be featured here.

Enjoy. 

“I withdrew from the unfair Paris Climate accord, which was costing us trillions of dollars.”

This is false. Each country set its own commitments under the Paris accord, so Trump’s comment makes little sense. He could have unilaterally changed the commitments offered by Presidents Obama and Biden, which is technically allowed under the accord. Indeed, the agreement is nonbinding, so there was nothing in the agreement that stops the United States from building, say, coal plants, or gives permission to China or India to build coal plants. 

Government doesn't build or operate power generation stations.

Lock The Clock

If you’re like me this semiannual switch between Standard Time and Daylight Saving Time is maddening.  Tomorrow I will lose an hour of sleep and in November after I set my clock back an hour I’ll still get out of bed in the dark to turn the coffee on.  At the end of the day I’ll pour myself a glass of Merlot in the dark.  This resetting of the clocks is messing with my circadian rhythms.

Daylight Saving Time is associated with the Western world as most countries outside Europe and North America don't observe the ritual. 

Courtesy of CNN research the notion of Daylight Saving Time has a curious pedigree.

1784 - The idea of daylight saving is first conceived by Benjamin Franklin.

1914-1918 - Britain goes on DLS during World War I.

March 19, 1918 - The Standard Time Act establishes time zones and daylight saving. Daylight saving is repealed in 1919, but continues to be recognized in certain areas of the United States.

1945-1966 - There is no federal law regarding Daylight Saving Time.

1966 - The Uniform Time Act of 1966 establishes the system of uniform Daylight Saving Time throughout the United States. The dates are the last Sunday in April to the last Sunday in October. States can exempt themselves from participation.

1974-1975 - Congress extends DLS in order to save energy during the energy crisis.

1986-2006 - Daylight Saving Time begins on the first Sunday in April and ends on the last Sunday in October.

August 8, 2005 - President George W. Bush signs the Energy Policy Act of 2005 into law. Part of the act will extend Daylight Saving Time starting in 2007, from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November. 
 
In 2022, the Senate unanimously approved the Sunshine Protection Act which would make daylight saving time permanent.  The House did not pass it and then-President Biden did not sign it.  Whether the 119th Congress will pass the Sunshine Protection Act of 2025 remains to be seen.  
 
As for making Daylight Savings Time permanent there is evidence that the frequency of heart attack and stroke increases around the ritual resetting of clocks twice a year.  Benefits of Daylight Savings Time enhance public safety and make better economic sense.  Proponents of Daylight Saving Time argue that most people appreciate an increase in daylight hours after coming home from work.  

Speaking for myself - I like the notion of longer, lighter evenings and a happier more prosperous United States.   

Make it permanent. Lock the clock.

Friday, March 7, 2025

Friday Music

 A favorite of mine going back to the day.  It remains apropos.

I said ‘mama I come to the valley of the rich
 

Myself to sell’
 

She said ‘son this is the road to hell’

The Road to Hell" is a two-part song written by Chris Rea and released on the album of the same name. It was released as a single, with only part 2 on the A-side of the 7". The single was his biggest success in the United Kingdom, peaking at #10 on the UK Singles Chart.

Chris Rea - Guitar
Neil Drinkwater - Keyboards
Sylvin Marc - Bass Guitar
Kirt Rust - Drums
Anto Drennan - Guitar


Crank-up the volume......