It's The Economy Stupid

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers. 

As we began the second year of Donald Trump's second term in office by traditional measures our economy was in decent shape.  Most forecasts put 2026 GDP growth around 2 - 2.5% with a solid, steady expansion and little risk of recession.  

Interest rates were expected to ease or stabilize while tax and spending policies supporting business and consumers took effect.  

Productivity gains and demand would lead to business - technology in particular - to post record profits.  All while artificial intelligence would boost efficiencies, margins and long term growth potential.  

The labor market was expected to remain near full employment levels with the prospects for American business and consumers looked much brighter following SCOTUS' striking-down of the president's import taxes.

Then President Trump unilaterally decided to go to war with Iran.  He did not ask for, nor receive the approval of Congress.  The president did not take the matter before the American people to make the case for war; although roughly a month later he did did make a formal prime time address to the nation on April Fools Day.  We heard a restatement of already-familiar talking points and were told the war was near completion and wrapping-up along with something about bombing them into the stone age.  With the exception of Israel, the president did not consult with our European allies or other global partners.  

Why is any of this worthy of mention?  The year 2026 had bright prospects  and by the end of February the president set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.  I think the president has stepped in it this time.

With the exception of Trump's war-loving MAGA base most of America disapproves of the war.   

Consequently, it should come as no great surprise that recent surveys of self-reported well-being have suggested that Americans are feeling discouraged and possibly becoming grumpy.   

Why is this important?  I hate to sound like a broken record but the American economy is not driven by manufacturing; it is a service economy.  With summer approaching the expectation at the beginning of the year was that of consumers spending more on travel and entertainment than last summer.  Accounting for two-thirds of all economic activity, it is consumer spending that fuels the US economy.  With the global disruption of energy supplies and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz all bets are off.

I've blogged on this subject from time-to-time and mentioned the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey which came in with preliminary results late last week.

The Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 11% to a historic low of 47.6.  If these numbers hold by the time complete data is announced at the end of this month this represents the lowest reading in the survey's 74 year history.  In case you're interested, the previous record low of 50 was at the peak of Biden-era inflation.  

I'm not at all surprised.  I may be a retired financial guy but I know that average folks struggle with wrapping their mind around abstract economic data such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP), but everyone understands the gas pump.  Last week national prices for a gallon of regular gasoline hovered around $4.15 with diesel at $5.50; up roughly 39% from before Trump went to war.  Oh boy howdy.

Additionally, according to the US Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index, small business optimism fell for a second consecutive quarter this past week.  Just 28% of small business owners say the economy is in good health; down 10 points from the previous quarter.

Finally, driven by sharp spikes in energy costs, this last week we learned inflation is up Big Time. Raspberries and blueberries and fresh produce in general have risen in price as a consequence of increased transportation costs.  So when I suggest the President Trump has stepped in it; I'm doing so because his unilateral war in Iran may turn out to be a serious-bad unforced error.  While I may grouse about the increased cost of fresh produce the impact of Trump's excursion in Iran is being felt in both myriad and profound ways across the globe.

I don't want to come across as the skunk that showed-up at your garden party but these are three data points that are blinking like glaring red warnings on the instrument panel of the airplane you are piloting over a vast uninhabited rain forest without a landing strip in sight.

While not much of this is life altering to me; that is simply not the case for a many of my countrymen.  Worst-case, people are nervous about making ends meet. Best-case, they're anxious about possibly altering or canceling a summer family vacation.  Between you and me I think the president actually cares.  Less about anyone's hardships; but more about the midterms and polling. 

The missus purchased airline tickets since the war began and both wartime fuel and baggage surcharges were assessed.  So yeah, I'm feeling a wee bit grumpy too.  Hardly at all as a consequence of cost; but mostly because none of this nonsense has so far improved my lot in life and made the world any safer.  For my sake and yours I sure hope Trump fixes this.  

You can learn more about the University of Michigan data here.

American Culinary Dominance

As the resident food snob here at The Platz it is noteworthy that the price of Rao's pizza and pasta sauces have near doubled in the last year.  How do I know this?  I am the chief grocery shopper and resident Pantry Warrior in our household.  I am also a fan of imported Italian bottled sauces as a consequence of their quality ingredients (San Marzano tomatoes) and unlike American manufacturers their scorning of sugar and preservatives in their recipes.  

Some of the cost increase is a consequence of Donald Trump's taxes on imported goods and the rest is a consequence of inflationary pressure on raw materials, packaging, logistics and labor.  Some of it is what I attribute to the 'Snobbery Premium' or the cost of high demand for a quality reputation and the balance to the $2.7 billion acquisition of Sovos Brands by Campbell's.    

Which leads to this walk down memory lane.   

This image is a print advertisement from 1964-1965 for Chef Boy-Ar-Dee Spaghetti Sauces that were part of a mid-century marketing campaign that ran during the 1950s and 1960s.

Not surprising is the emphasis placed-upon the slow-simmered, hand-stirred, 'Old Italian Way' of authentic Italian sauces directly from Nonna's kitchen stove in Naples to your own kitchen from an American tin can.  Mind you, the theme is that this is a recurring 'secret' as no self-respecting American housewife would dare reveal the ease of which such gourmet results could be obtained simply by opening a can and rewarming the contents on a stove top and pouring it over boiled noodles.  Microwave technology improved-upon the concept by the 1980s.

Chef Boy-Ar-Dee was a real person - his name phonetically spelled so salesmen could pronounce it correctly - Ettore 'Hector' Boiardi (1897-1985) was a honest-to-goodness world-renowned chef. Born in Piacenza, Italy, he immigrated to the states at age 16 and was employed at the prestigious Plaza Hotel in New York City.

Striking out on his own he opened his own restaurant in Cleveland in 1924 - Il Giardino d'Italia.  His sauce was such a customer favorite that he bottled it in repurposed milk bottles for customers to take home. Due to high demand he and brothers Paul and Mario opened a small canning operation in 1928 producing a Ready-To-Heat Spaghetti Kit.  Included was a small can of grated Parmesan cheese making Boiardi the largest American importer of the product at the time.  By 1938 operations had outgrown the Cleveland facility and moved to Milton, Pennsylvania where it could grow its own tomatoes and mushrooms to keep up with national demand.   

In 1942 Chef Boiardi transformed his highly successful commercial pasta business located in Milton into a massive 24/7 operation supporting the war effort producing beef ravioli and other canned pastas for C rations.  At its peak the operation employed 5,000 workers producing roughly 250,000 cans of food per day.  This immigrant chef encouraged his employee with the patriotic slogan: Keep 'em flying! Keep 'em rolling! Keep 'em well-fed!  In 1946 the War Department awarded Hector Boiardi with the Gold Star Order of Excellence - one of the highest honors a civilian can receive from the military. 

Post-war Boiardi faced a dilemma: his factory was too large for civilian demand and he did not wish to lay-off the thousands he hired for the war effort.  He sold the company to American Home Brands in 1946 and remained the public face of his brand until his passing in 1985.  

Immigrant child laborer, chef, entrepreneur, patriot and promoter of affordable canned pasta and sauce.  This is the stuff that made America great!

Friday Music

Born of the American rock band Guns N' Roses in 1987 it was released on their debut album - Appetite for Destruction – later in 1988.  The tune topped the Billboard Hot 100 chart to become the band's only number 1 US single.    

Various covers of this tune have found their way here from time to time.  And for something completely different; this is a really fun cover of Sweet Child o' Mine... 

Wireless

I've previously blogged about REMCO (Remote Control Manufacturing Company) and toys from the 1960s.  It was a golden age and Remco dominated the marketplace for creating toys that made children feel like a cold war spy, a scientist or a backyard warrior.  Including fun stuff that you could assemble like a radio.

Before the age of microchips Remco sold a kit that a kit that included all of the components - transistors, capacitors and resistors - that a kid could put together by means of spring-terminals and screws to create a working AM radio.  

To keep costs down most models used a one-transistor circuit requiring a long antenna wire that you could clip to a metal window screen or bed frame to enhance reception.  Most included a single crystal ear plug while others used a speaker.  An entire generation of baby boomers found their way into an engineering career or became ham radio enthusiasts as a consequence of Remco radios.

And if you have a working model with the original packaging and instructions you would learn that collectors and radio hobbyists will pay handsomely to get their hands on it.

Spot The Critter

Unless it happens to be wild turkeys, birds aren’t easy to photograph on a trail camera without something to attract them.  Which is an OK idea.  Every summer I've been putting a camera on the oriole feeder to record who's visiting and this winter I've been doing the same with a peanut feeder.  But if you really want results put a camera on a road-killed whitetail.  Oh boy howdy.

Anyway, I captured a rare photo of this bird recently and I figure it likely pounced on some prey animal to trigger the camera shutter.  It also took me awhile to ID it and I ended-up emailing the photo to a wildlife biologist for verification.

It's a red-shouldered hawk (Buteo lineatus); a very rare winter sighting as this raptor migrates south to the gulf coast and at least to Illinois for the winter. This bird is characterized by striking black-and-white checkered wings and a loud 'kee-aah' call.  Their red shoulders are visible when perched or in flight. 

Their diet includes small mammals, amphibians and reptiles.  While this sighting is a first, they do nest here and are highly territorial returning year after year to the same location to breed.

This bird requires large, contiguous blocks of mature forest, particularly bottomland hardwoods near rivers or wetlands.  As a consequence of habitat fragmentation this bird’s status in Wisconsin is threatened.

Every once in a while the trail cameras deliver a real keeper image.

And this is a bonus. 

Smoke 'Em If You Got 'Em

On the subject of cigarettes there is this:

A perfect example of Yankee Ingenuity - a cigarette holder for nudists.

If a smoker finds their self at a nude beach, colony or camp what do you do besides carry a purse or a fanny pack (pardon the pun) when you haven't any pockets?

I am told by the Gemini AI that historically this device was pitched by a delegate to a nudist convention.  A sporty leather case that holds a standard pack of cigs to the wearer's leg by means of an elastic band.

Brilliance!

Happy Easter

Once upon a time we would watch the President and his family walk across Lafayette Square to attend Easter morning church services.

Today we get potential war crimes.

Happy Easter, Passover, or whatever or however you celebrate the season.