Gentlemen - Start Your Ovens

When the going gets tough;

The tough bake stuff.

During the recent cold snap we had the wood stove operating most of the day every day.  It actually does a reasonably good job of heating the west half of the house and sending heat up the stairwell to take the chill out of the second floor.  Nevertheless, as a consequence of thermostat placement the east side of the house (laundry, powder room and kitchen) remains moderately cooler.

When that happens more often than not we wear fleece and ignore it.  Otherwise, a partial solution is either to do laundry on that day and/or come-up with an excuse to use the kitchen gas range as the operation of the appliances serve to impart some additional heat to the space they occupy.

It's not a huge deal and even though in its 22nd year the house is becoming slightly more "leaky" in keeping the cold out and the heat in; the natural passive solar advantages of old-school farmhouse architecture including lots of tall windows to capture sunny winter daylight when Old Sol is low on the horizon really does work.  Don't let anybody tell you that settlers hundreds of years ago were witless about maximizing solar power in the winter and shade in the summer.  But I digress.

About the baking, I located the last of the Irish soda bread mix (imported from the land of my forebears) in the pantry and decided to bake a loaf.  Mainly for breakfast with a steaming cuppa joe on a cold winter morning.  I amped-it-up with some added cane sugar and a double fistful of dried cranberries (reconstituted).  This was the last of the Irish bread mixes and the last of the cranberries from the pantry imparting a satisfying feeling of inventory turnover.

Anyway,  a good use of a cold and sunny winter day.  And the results were pretty tasty.

Didn't last to the end of the week....

 

   

Time Out

Mr. Trump’s willingness to make a near-immediate conclusion about the deadly shooting appeared to be at odds with one of his senior advisers. Tom Homan, Mr. Trump’s border czar, told CBS News that he would not make a judgment call on video of the shooting circulating on social media.

“Let the investigation play out,” Mr. Homan said, “and hold people accountable based on the investigation.”

Homeland Security Secretary Noem commented on the fatal ICE-involved shooting in Minneapolis and claimed that the woman killed had engaged in an "act of domestic terrorism" by trying to target officers with her car. 

Ever since this happened is seems I cannot swing a dead cat without hitting someone someone falling over themselves to get into their respective echo chamber of righteous hyper-partisan outrage.  

 

Keyboard warriors out for blood.  

 

I got no interest in turning-up the volume on this as it is way too early in the process.

I'm willing to wait for investigators to do their job, allow the process to play-out and the conclusions released to the public.  

 

It is abundantly clear that the administration had basically decided-upon the narrative they chose to spin before the deceased had been positively identified.  And with the locals stonewalled in any investigative role that puts the FBI under additional scrutiny to not engage in a cover-up.  Appearances will count for a lot.  I'm willing to give the FBI a fair shot at interpreting the forensics.   

 

Time will tell.

 

And liars, where ever they may lurk, get found-out.  Eventually. 

Friday Music

The "Illitona Panpipe Group" refers to a traditional music ensemble hailing from the Solomon Islands.  Specifically the Illitona Bamboo Band from Santa Isabel.

Known for their captivating, toe-tapping, get-up-and-dance panpipe (bamboo pipe) music which is a key part of the local culture performed on the islands like Kolombangara.

They play indigenous, rhythmic music using traditional instruments fashioned from bamboo pipes and showcasing a unique island sound.

If you ask me I don't see bamboo - I see drain pipe, PVC to be sure.  I figure this western cultural addition may lend a uniformity in production value with the durability of polyvinyl chloride.  It is the world's third-most produced plastic after all.

Enjoy this really fun music and try really hard not to get sucked into more of it.

Turn-up the volume nice and loud for Illitona Panpipe Group: Morning Star.....

Highway Patrol

Dodge was a significant player in the the highway patrol and police cruiser marketplace over the years.  Here's a classic for you.

A 1965-66 Dodge Polara in dark blue and white livery sporting a Wisconsin State Patrol shield.  The officer in the photo is sporting the traditional State Patrol dress uniform of the era and a Smokey Bear hat that persists today.  

Chrysler's C-body lineup was a favorite of police departments for their durability and reliability, straight lines and wide stance and in Wisconsin for wintertime performance.  Powered by a standard 383 V8 rated at 330 horsepower; a 413 V8 and 440 V8 were also available.  A heavy-duty, police spec, Tourqueflite automatic transmission tied it all together.  

Naturally, the suspension, alternator, radiator, brakes, wiring harness and more were higher capacity and heavier duty that civilian models.  Upholstery was vinyl.  These vehicles were factory-equipped with a Motorola two-way radio (with a whip antenna), shotgun rack, a single red rotating "gumball" roof beacon and exterior siren.   

This smiling dude is the proud owner of a restored 1965 Dodge Cornet police cruiser...

 

   

Don't Get Fooled Again

Delcy Rodriguez - Venezuela's interim president

Meet the new boss

Same as the old boss

- Peter Townshend

 

Disinflation v. Deflation

Inasmuch as it is the start to a new year I figured this would be an opportune time to discuss something that has been on my mind and recently seems to be misunderstood by a significant number of lay individuals.

While the words in the title of this post may imply similarities they are differentiated by singularly unique identifiers and consequences.

Disinflation is a slowdown in the rate of price increases.  In the real world prices prices might be continuing to climb but they're rising at a slower pace.  Think: 18 months ago inflation was 6%; today it is 3%.  Causes of disinflation include central bank (Federal Reserve) policies that tighten credit by means of raising interest rates to cool consumer demand for goods and services.  If the policy is successful it results in slowing the growth of inflation by stabilizing growth in prices. 

Deflation is a decrease in the general price of goods and services (negative inflation) meaning prices are actually falling.  Think: 18 months ago the price of a gallon of unleaded regular was $3.15 a gallon; today it is $2.30 a gallon.  Causes of deflation can include oversupply or increased productivity as well as tightening of monetary policy leading to decreased demand.  Generally-speaking, deflation can be harmful as consumers naturally may delay purchases if their expectation is for lower prices in the future.  This can lead to a drop in demand, reduced business profitability, wage reductions and a deflationary spiral.

So, what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?  Not much.  It has more to do with perceptions and messaging. 

During his campaign, and since taking office a year ago, Donald Trump has made repeated promises to bring down the overall price level - a goal of price reductions.  He has made specific promises that the price of various and sundry goods: gasoline, groceries and utilities would decrease from their inflated, post-pandemic levels.  To be sure, the president has promised what would amount to deflation, or falling prices.  The ramifications of this is two-fold; consumer expectations and economic consequences.

Consumers would be better served by a steady dose of disinflation and slowing the growth of inflation.  The economy would be better served avoiding an across the board sustained decrease in prices; the unintended consequence of which might lead to a recession.

My sense is that consumers seem to have placed a higher value on prices actually coming down than they want inflation to slow and prices to stabilize.  In my view, they don't completely understand the consequences of these two choices; and if I had to hazard a guess it may be a result of the president's own rhetorical excess. 

Donald Trump has promised, Prices will come down.  You just watch;  They'll come down, and they'll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.   

He promised that: Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.

Only last month the president suggested that inflation was essentially done but cautioned that he did not want actual deflation, saying this:  We don't want it to be deflation either.  You gotta be careful.  

In case your memory needs a refresh; the troubled period of time spanning The Great Recession gave us a taste of everything. 

Inflation-Disinflation-Deflation Illustrated - Data BLS

The bottom line is that since he took office Trump has begun to walk-back any number of his promises as a consequence of two incontrovertible truths.  First, price reductions are more easily said than done.  Second, broad price drops can expose the economy to self-inflicted and unintended consequences.  Moreover, with consumers smarting from rising pressures in the cost of living, Trump has begun to walk-back and delay implementation of many of his import taxes.

Where does this leave us?  Three things to watch.

The White House's unilateral use of executive authority to arbitrarily impose broad trade duties (tariffs) on imported goods has most certainly contributed to inflation.  Thus, prices for consumers and businesses have continued to increase while at the same time the rate of inflation has slowed.  Perhaps as early as Friday it is expected the Supreme Court will rule on this matter providing guidance to the administration and the rest of us going forward.

The US economy finished the year on a strong note - gross domestic product grew at a 4.3% annual rate, faster than the previous three months.  The president will try to laissez les bon temps rouler.  

I expect him to continue badgering the Fed to reduce interest rates and he'll be announcing a pick for a new Fed chair before too long.  At the same time, corporate tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill will be kicking-in this year and could juice spending. Will this stimulus and tariffs goose inflation?  If so, how will the Fed respond?  

Since I lack the powers of clairvoyance my only prediction is that 2026 may shape-up to be an interesting year.  I'm sleeping very well lately; yet because we've all been to this rodeo before only time will tell.

Anniversary

Sometimes you cannot celebrate anniversaries enough.  Wedding, first buck, deer camp and more.  The post card above arrived in the mail the other day reminding me that this is the seventh anniversary of the deployment of a Snapshot Wisconsin DNR trail camera on our property on October 20, 2018.

The Snapshot program utilizes volunteers to help identify and count the animals recorded on these trail cameras.  Crowdsourcing the data of where and when each photo was taken will hopefully lend further understanding of wildlife population distributions across Wisconsin and how these distributions change over time. Snapshot Wisconsin is a consistent mechanism to monitor all types of wildlife throughout the year.   The most frequently photographed animal happens to be Odocoileus virginianus, the whitetail deer.  Same here.  The top four animals captured here are as follows (in rank order) - Deer, Turkey, Cottontail and Racoon

Funded primarily through Pittman-Robertson dollars provided by the Federal government to Wisconsin DNR. Other funding is provided by a grant from the NASA Applied Science Program through the University of Wisconsin – Madison. Other partners include UW-Extension, Adler Planetarium, Zooniverse, Wisconsin Society of Science Teachers and the Wisconsin Environmental Education Board. 

Having commenced year number eight this last autumn I deployed the third camera having lost the previous two to critter damage and a technology failure.  With five additional cameras deployed on the property this is nothing new. 

Anyway, to celebrate the occasion I thought I'd share a handful of some of my favorite photos captured from the same location.  

 

 

 

From the top: a buck, fisher, coyote, turkey, bald eagle, fawn and some river otters.  Time flies when you're having fun. 

Fun Fact:  In July of last year the Snapshot program celebrated their 100 millionth photo.  The photo featured for Door County was taken by the camera we host.