Fast Facts

Baird Maritime photo

 

Global seaborne crude oil shipments have fallen ~16% since the start of the Iran war. We are currently down ~14 million barrels/day out of a total of ~103 total barrels of oil/day used globally. Empty tankers that previously would have picked up oil in the Persian Gulf are now heading to other destinations to pick up oil - including the U.S. These increased exports may potentially go from 4 million barrels/day to 6 million barrels/day. Robbing Peter (U.S. Citizens) to pay Paul (the rest of the World). It takes 22 days to transport oil from Saudi Arabia to Shanghai by sea; versus 52 days to transport oil from Houston to Shanghai by sea. For a Houston-to-China run, we would need to quadruple crew-hours: over twice as many crews to man over twice as many tankers - over twice as long for each voyage. A Houston-to-China run will require more than twice the fuel and twice the wear-and-tear on the ships.

 

We would need over twice as many tankers to transport oil from the U.S. to China. But those tankers do not exist. Oops.

 

I suppose China is going to have to figure this out. But, there again, the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed anyway; as a consequence of the blockade by both Iran and the United States.

 

At some point in the future (weeks, months, years, whatever), and after a cessation of hostilities, it will take weeks to reposition most all of these ships back to their normal runs. As a follow-up to Sunday's post on the Iran-Trump negotiating situation; it is my opinion that the longer Iran holds out, the greater the international chaos and the stronger Iran's negotiating position becomes. Does Trump's negotiating position becomes weaker? Dunno for sure; but the polling is getting worse with the passage of time.  

Of course, Iran is aware we have a midterm election coming-up.

Who knew a war in the Middle East could be so complicated?

 

 

 

 

Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/

The Great Flood

We were out of town when this occurred; which is not to say we weren't concerned.  I was.  In fact I found myself nervously expecting an alert on my device notifying me of water in the basement.  Thankfully that alert never arrived and upon our return the basement was dry.  Not so much for some of our neighbors who had up to 2-4 feet of ground water in their cellar.

Anyway, we found ourselves on the receiving-end of roughly 8-10 inches of rain in relatively short order around April 14-15.  Noteworthy, is that we were still drying-out from three feet of snow a month earlier and additional inches of rain in the interim.  Things were rather soggy around here.   

I took this photo on April 21.

The view is east and the trail parallels Silver Creek which is out of sight immediately to the right.  A couple of things to note; The ruts in the trail left behind by the smaller Polaris ATV I was riding and the standing water.  Also, the grass covering the trail and to the left and right is all laid flat.  Clearly by water from the creek overflowing its banks. 

How much water?

From the trail camera positioned immediately in the flood plane are a couple of photos that show the extent.

Under normal circumstances there is never standing water in the viewfinder of the trail camera.  In this case Silver Creek flooded beyond its normal bank by about thirty-five yards, give or take.  And to a depth of about 8-10 inches; not enough to drown the camera, but certainly enough to float a wood duck.  First time photo of that critter.

As of today, the creek continues to run full-bore and we're a long way from drying-out. 

Ramps

Allium tricoccum - wild leek or ramps.  The leaves and bulbs are used in cooking, pickling, seasoning, salads and much more.  Years ago we owned a trailer home in the woods adjacent to Potawatomi State Park and there was a patch of these growing beside our shed; a handy source of wild onion.

They're found in the rich, moist soil of deciduous woodlands ranging from southern Canada to Appalachia.  Commonly fried-up with potatoes in bacon fat or scrambled eggs served with beans and cornbread they are a tasty and renewable wild edible used as a substitute to onions and garlic.

So, the first week of November last year a decided to plant some in our woods as an experiment.  Why I didn't think to do this twenty years ago is beyond me.  I wish I had.  Nevertheless, I figured better late than never.

Anyway, I sourced dormant root stock from a native nursery and planted a dozen bulbs in four locations along with an ounce of seed for good measure.  I figured the location was perfect and I crossed my fingers hoping the critters wouldn't eat the bulbs.  I figured the seeds would scarify over the winter during the freeze-thaw cycle and with a bit of luck some might germinate.  I marked the location with fluorescent flag tape so I could locate it again.

Yesterday we were out in the woods cleaning bird boxes and running the trail camera trapline and wouldn't you know it; they're up!  A whole bunch of them.

 

Who Wants To Make A Deal?

Last week a buddy and I were pondering the Iran war, the nuclear deal (or lack thereof) and was Iran cheating when Donald Trump exited from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018.  And for some strange reason a day later it occurred to me that Mr. Trump's situation is similar to that of the popular game show Let's Make a Deal that aired from 1963 to 1976.

If you're old like me you may recall that costumed audience members had to deal with fast-talking host Monty Hall in choosing what might be lurking behind up to three doors or curtains.  Was it a fabulous prize - like an automobile?  Or a lesser prize - called a Zonk?

Unexpectedly called-off yesterday, if nuclear talks resume in Pakistan sometime soon President Trump will be facing a similar conundrum mostly a consequence of his own making.  The President had previously characterized the JCPOA as "a horrible, one-sided deal."   And now he has the opportunity to make a new deal.  Will it be Door Number One, Two or Three?  But first, let's put to bed anything about cheating back in 2018.

Whether Iran was cheating at the time Trump withdrew from the JCPOA is debatable.  At the time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was monitoring sites on the ground and had confirmed that Iran was staying within the limits allowed for uranium enrichment and stockpile size.  Senior officials in the Trump administration, including Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, testified to Congress that Iran was in technical compliance with the agreement.  Consequently, the consensus among both international monitors and the US intelligence community was that Iran was not cheating.

That the agreement had flaws and shortcomings is not debatable. Everyone knew that; including the Iranians.  Trump's primary argument for withdrawal wasn't that Iran was breaking any rules but that  the agreement itself was fatally flawed including a sunset provision that would allow Iran to pursue enrichment activities after the passage of fifteen years and that the deal did not address Iran's ballistic missile program.

So Trump tore-up the agreement and walked away.

And in the absence of a replacement agreement Iran set in motion an enrichment spree and expansion of their ballistic missile program leaving them closer to a bomb than ever before.  Today, the IAEA tells us Iran likely has a total of 11 tons of uranium at various enrichment levels.  With further purification that is sufficient to build up to 10 to 11 nuclear warheads.  All of this happened in the open and without an inning of cheating.

It is noteworthy to remember that Iran had previously lived up to its pledge under the JCPOA to ship to Russia 12.5 tons of its overall stockpile of enriched uranium.  After which, Iran's weapons industry didn't have sufficient material to build even a single bomb. 

The actions of president Trump have had all manner of consequences; intended and otherwise.  Going back to 2018, ask yourself, was the original deal an OK deal?  Was abrogating it a better deal?  And who owns the results?  

From 2021 to 2025 the Biden administration was unsuccessful in negotiating new limits.  And throughout the negotiations Iran kept enriching and expanding its cache of enriched uranium.

Then, in June of last year, Trump bombed Iran's enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordo including underground storage tunnels and facilities at Isfahan.  He famously declared to the world that Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated."   

But probably not.  

In very short order, Operation Epic Fury was launched in late February of this year.  Two months later the Straits of Hormuz are blockaded and effectively closed and presently the US and Iran have entered a period of tentative diplomacy.  President Trump has previously dispatched Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan; and until yesterday planned to send real estate developers and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad to conduct indirect talks presumably to secure a replacement nuclear agreement. 

A fragile ceasefire has been extended.  The president tells us that the military operation has decimated Iran's industrial base, ballistic missile production, drone manufacturing and sunk the navy.

President Trump's decision to unilaterally go to war with Iran without consulting Congress, the American people or (excepting for Israel) any of our global allies; set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.

Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has explicitly ruled-out direct talks with Witkoff and Kushner leaving Pakistan serving as an intermediary shuttling messages between the US and Iran. 

The administration is wise to seek an agreement that permanently eliminates any path to nuclear weapons, including restrictions on ballistic missiles and a cessation of support for Hezbollah and Hamas.

Intelligence reports suggest Iran still has its stockpile of highly-enriched uranium.  The president has to come up with a plan for that and Iran has to agree to it.  

Iran has signaled an openness to discussing nuclear concessions contingent-upon sanctions relief, reparations and a formal end to hostilities.  The missile program appears to be a non-starter.  

I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office inasmuch as a rushed-deal (to end the war) has a high probability of being a sloppy deal.  I do not think that Trump has the attention to detail or the patience for arduous negotiations that would lead to a real deal.  I have little faith in Trump getting this right.  I think he wants to save face.  He wants to say his deal is better than Obama's.  He wants to get the heck out of this morass as soon as he can; slapdash deal notwithstanding.  Furthermore, with a decapitation of Iranian leadership and wholesale destruction of Iran's economic base what are the implications for a civil war and expansion of unrest in the Middle East?  Would you agree the situation is disordered and chaotic?

And, of course, the Strait remains effectively closed leaving global supply chains seriously messed-up with all sorta unintended consequences.  So, I'm still waiting on President Trump to improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  Along with making the world a safer place.

I sure hope he gets this right....

 

Southern Poverty Law Center In The News

 

 

Some days the White House Information Minister, Karoline Leavitt, is beginning to sound more and more like Baghdad Bob, dontcha think?  She's off on maternity leave now so we're gonna score a break from it.

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) has been indicted.  An indictment is not a conviction it is simply the Department of Justice's (DOJ) allegation that donor disclosures around its informant program were misleading. The organization’s defense is that it used confidential informants in extremist groups as part of legitimate intelligence gathering to prevent violence; a practice that overlaps with standard law-enforcement practices all day long. The legal question is not whether informants were used, but whether donor communications were sufficiently transparent to meet nonprofit fraud standards.

Until trial, claims that this proves intentional wrongdoing or “funding extremism” remain unproven allegations, not established fact.

This is the same DOJ that indicted James Comey and Letitia James, only to have those indictments dismissed once they made it to the legal system. The John Brennan and John Bolton indictments are also stuck in the mud. 

In my view, the odds are better than even that this is just another poorly-conceived retribution indictment. It alleges that the SPLC was supporting the Ku Klux Klan by paying confidential informants who happened to be members of those organizations.  I am not a lawyer but the entire premise seems a stretch.

As for their donor disclosures, since SPLC has used CIs before, I think they'll be able to successfully argue they're not actually "supporting" the Klan, Nazi or White Supremacist organizations.  I think the hypothetical reasonable person would expect that this practice would continue - unless the SPLC explicitly promised in the solicitation that it wouldn't (which also seems unlikely.)   Time will tell.

 

Any good prosecutor can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich. 

- Associate Judge Sol Wachtler 

Vacation Cruiser

Spotted in the wild of a grocery store parking lot:

A 1985 Oldsmobile Custom Cruiser complete with fake wood vinyl siding.

Ubiquitous in the 1980s, stumbling across a genuine land yacht in pristine condition is exceedingly rare.  They enjoy something of a cult status as not many of them are left 40 years later.  GM's Oldsmobile Division assembled fewer than 15,000 Custom Cruisers in 1985 and only a few are left on the road.  Driven into the ground hauling kids, dogs and groceries most rusted-away from Midwest winters long ago only to be replaced by more popular minivans and SUVs.

Without peaking under the hood this model is likely equipped with a 5.0L (307 CID) V8.  At 140 HP it wasn't a speed demon but a steady and quiet cruiser.  It sits on a GM B-body frame shared with the Buick Estate and Chevrolet Caprice.  This model has a three-way tailgate.  The body panels are straight, the chrome is perfect and the rear window isn't sagging from the massive tailgate speaks to terrific maintenance.  Even the 'Got Wood' window decal is a tongue-in-cheek nod to the vinyl woodgrain paneling.

A quick check on the interweb reveals this boat retails between $6,000 and $12,000 - compared to an MSRP of $14,500 - $15,000 as new.  Low-mileage exceptional specimens can fetch up to $20,000 at auction.

Sounds like a fair price to me for a genuine National Lampoon Family Vacation ride.

Happy motoring.... 

Friday Music

This Irish rock band came together in 1989 composed of Niall Quin, Noel Hogan, Mike Hogan and Fergal Lawler.  Dolores O'Riordan replaced Quinn in 1990.

Tragically, O'Riordan struggled with depression and bipolar disorder and died in 2018 as a consequence of accidental drowning due to alcohol intoxication.  

Following her death the group released In The End, highlighting her final recordings; after which the group disbanded.

From a 1999 live performance in Paris, O'Riordan and the Cranberries - Dreams