Depending on various factors, opening an automobile assembly plant typically takes 2 to 5 years.
Here’s a breakdown of the timeline:
1. Planning & Site Selection (6 months – 2 years)
• Finding a suitable location
• Negotiating land acquisition and incentives
• Conducting feasibility studies and regulatory approvals
2. Design & Permitting (6 months – 1 year)
• Designing the plant layout and infrastructure
• Obtaining environmental and construction permits
3. Construction & Facility Setup (1 – 2 years)
• Building the factory, utilities, and support structures
• Installing assembly lines, robotics, and automation systems
4. Hiring & Workforce Training (6 months – 1 year)
• Recruiting workers and management
• Training employees on assembly processes and safety protocols
5. Testing & Production Ramp-up (6 months – 1 year)
• Testing machinery, refining processes, and ensuring quality control
• Gradually increasing production to full capacity
Factors That Can Affect the Timeline:
• Government approvals and incentives
• Supply chain readiness and equipment availability
• Labor market and workforce training needs
• Complexity of the vehicles being produced
Consider this; Tesla’s Gigafactories typically take 1.5 to 2 years, while traditional automakers can take 3 to 5 years to fully operationalize a new plant.
The bottom line is this is exceedingly complex and expensive. It is not easy.
Last week we were witness to serious stock market volatility following the President's announcement that tariffs would go into effect on all automobiles manufactured outside of our borders. We can argue all day long about who should have seen this coming; but the markets don't like tariffs. Nonetheless, it looks like Howard Lutnick, former head of Cantor Fitzgerald, who is a moderate on trade and is now commerce secretary may have gotten the ear of President Trump.
One of the endearing qualities of Donald Trump is his fascination with the stock market as a barometer of his success. Consequently, the
White House has paused tariffs on automobiles assembled in Mexico and Canada for 30 days so that Ford, General Motors and Stellantis can produce their plan for re-shoring all of the manufacturing and assembly to the US. As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt put it: Get on it., start investing, start moving, shift production here to the United States of America, where they will pay no tariffs.
This is easier said than done because in the many decades that have passed since the North American free trade zone was created in 1992 automakers have built complex supply chains that cross multiple borders.
You're probably scratching your head and wondering what the heck. It's not rocket science. Manufacturers achieve economies of scale by means of multiple large plants both here and abroad to supply assembly operations across North America* with stuff like engines, EV batteries and motors, transmissions, suspensions, body panels, seats and wiring harnesses. Everything that is required to build an automobile. I couple of years ago a handful of us got a tour of a Volkswagen assembly plant located in Dresden, Germany. This is not unique to North America.
The brilliance of this manufacturing model is vehicles would be less affordable if all of their component parts had to be made in one country.
In our household we have two newer vehicles. A Ford Mustang Mach-E; assembled in Cuautitlan, Mexico with parts sourced in Europe and North America. In December we purchased a Honda CR-V Hybrid; assembled in Greensburg, Indiana with parts sourced in Japan and North America. We still have our trusty 1998 Chevy Silverado. It was assembled in Pontiac, Michigan with parts sourced in North America.
A vehicle is considered an import when it is shipped to the states after final assembly in another country. Factually, because of the complexity of supply chains nowadays it is almost next to impossible to tell an American car from and import by simply looking at the brand.
With the exception of the Great Recession and COVID; over the past couple of decades the annual number of imported vehicles sold in the US has consistently hovered around 8 million units. Countries of origin, ranked from high to low are as follows: Mexico, Japan, South Korea and Canada. Domestic production peaked at 13 million units in 1999, fell during the Great Recession and rebounded to 12 million as consumer confidence returned. Annual production since has been 10.6 to 11 million units. As a recovering financial guy and erstwhile observer of all of the drama my take goes something like this:
- The threat of tariffs appears to be real. Is Trump bluffing? Or is he willing to kill the hostages? Who is the angel and devil sitting on his shoulders?
- Last month, Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would blow a hole in the US auto industry; the largest manufacturing contributor to domestic GDP.
- Moving everything to here is disruptive and would unnecessarily hobble the US auto industry. Besides, it has the stink of Soviet central planning and government meddling with business all over it.
- US automakers built their business models around government trade agreements; NAFTA (Clinton) and USMCA (Trump). Commencing the undoing of more than thirty years of sophisticated business in thirty days is complicated and expensive. It is not easy. Much of it would be unfinished when Trump leaves office in four years.
- There is that nagging likelihood of negative first quarter GDP. The growing polarization of Elon Musk, falling consumer confidence, no budget reconciliation (yet), a looming debt ceiling and threat of government shutdown and the chaotically messy on-again, off-again policy messaging from the White House. Business and markets abhor uncertainty.
- Trump
is sensitive to market volatility, drops in particular. He's also
sensitive to polling of his approval rating.
- Finally, there is this immutable Rule of Thumb: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth = Recession.
We shall see what we shall see.......
*North America includes Canada, Mexico and United States