Highway Patrol

Dodge was a significant player in the the highway patrol and police cruiser marketplace over the years.  Here's a classic for you.

A 1965-66 Dodge Polara in dark blue and white livery sporting a Wisconsin State Patrol shield.  The officer in the photo is sporting the traditional State Patrol dress uniform of the era and a Smokey Bear hat that persists today.  

Chrysler's C-body lineup was a favorite of police departments for their durability and reliability, straight lines and wide stance and in Wisconsin for wintertime performance.  Powered by a standard 383 V8 rated at 330 horsepower; a 413 V8 and 440 V8 were also available.  A heavy-duty, police spec, Tourqueflite automatic transmission tied it all together.  

Naturally, the suspension, alternator, radiator, brakes, wiring harness and more were higher capacity and heavier duty that civilian models.  Upholstery was vinyl.  These vehicles were factory-equipped with a Motorola two-way radio (with a whip antenna), shotgun rack, a single red rotating "gumball" roof beacon and exterior siren.   

This smiling dude is the proud owner of a restored 1965 Dodge Cornet police cruiser...

 

   

Don't Get Fooled Again

Delcy Rodriguez - Venezuela's interim president

Meet the new boss

Same as the old boss

- Peter Townshend

 

Disinflation v. Deflation

Inasmuch as it is the start to a new year I figured this would be an opportune time to discuss something that has been on my mind and recently seems to be misunderstood by a significant number of lay individuals.

While the words in the title of this post may imply similarities they are differentiated by singularly unique identifiers and consequences.

Disinflation is a slowdown in the rate of price increases.  In the real world prices prices might be continuing to climb but they're rising at a slower pace.  Think: 18 months ago inflation was 6%; today it is 3%.  Causes of disinflation include central bank (Federal Reserve) policies that tighten credit by means of raising interest rates to cool consumer demand for goods and services.  If the policy is successful it results in slowing the growth of inflation by stabilizing growth in prices. 

Deflation is a decrease in the general price of goods and services (negative inflation) meaning prices are actually falling.  Think: 18 months ago the price of a gallon of unleaded regular was $3.15 a gallon; today it is $2.30 a gallon.  Causes of deflation can include oversupply or increased productivity as well as tightening of monetary policy leading to decreased demand.  Generally-speaking, deflation can be harmful as consumers naturally may delay purchases if their expectation is for lower prices in the future.  This can lead to a drop in demand, reduced business profitability, wage reductions and a deflationary spiral.

So, what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?  Not much.  It has more to do with perceptions and messaging. 

During his campaign, and since taking office a year ago, Donald Trump has made repeated promises to bring down the overall price level - a goal of price reductions.  He has made specific promises that the price of various and sundry goods: gasoline, groceries and utilities would decrease from their inflated, post-pandemic levels.  To be sure, the president has promised what would amount to deflation, or falling prices.  The ramifications of this is two-fold; consumer expectations and economic consequences.

Consumers would be better served by a steady dose of disinflation and slowing the growth of inflation.  The economy would be better served avoiding an across the board sustained decrease in prices; the unintended consequence of which might lead to a recession.

My sense is that consumers seem to have placed a higher value on prices actually coming down than they want inflation to slow and prices to stabilize.  In my view, they don't completely understand the consequences of these two choices; and if I had to hazard a guess it may be a result of the president's own rhetorical excess. 

Donald Trump has promised, Prices will come down.  You just watch;  They'll come down, and they'll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.   

He promised that: Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.

Only last month the president suggested that inflation was essentially done but cautioned that he did not want actual deflation, saying this:  We don't want it to be deflation either.  You gotta be careful.  

In case your memory needs a refresh; the troubled period of time spanning The Great Recession gave us a taste of everything. 

Inflation-Disinflation-Deflation Illustrated - Data BLS

The bottom line is that since he took office Trump has begun to walk-back any number of his promises as a consequence of two incontrovertible truths.  First, price reductions are more easily said than done.  Second, broad price drops can expose the economy to self-inflicted and unintended consequences.  Moreover, with consumers smarting from rising pressures in the cost of living, Trump has begun to walk-back and delay implementation of many of his import taxes.

Where does this leave us?  Three things to watch.

The White House's unilateral use of executive authority to arbitrarily impose broad trade duties (tariffs) on imported goods has most certainly contributed to inflation.  Thus, prices for consumers and businesses have continued to increase while at the same time the rate of inflation has slowed.  Perhaps as early as Friday it is expected the Supreme Court will rule on this matter providing guidance to the administration and the rest of us going forward.

The US economy finished the year on a strong note - gross domestic product grew at a 4.3% annual rate, faster than the previous three months.  The president will try to laissez les bon temps rouler.  

I expect him to continue badgering the Fed to reduce interest rates and he'll be announcing a pick for a new Fed chair before too long.  At the same time, corporate tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill will be kicking-in this year and could juice spending. Will this stimulus and tariffs goose inflation?  If so, how will the Fed respond?  

Since I lack the powers of clairvoyance my only prediction is that 2026 may shape-up to be an interesting year.  I'm sleeping very well lately; yet because we've all been to this rodeo before only time will tell.

Anniversary

Sometimes you cannot celebrate anniversaries enough.  Wedding, first buck, deer camp and more.  The post card above arrived in the mail the other day reminding me that this is the seventh anniversary of the deployment of a Snapshot Wisconsin DNR trail camera on our property on October 20, 2018.

The Snapshot program utilizes volunteers to help identify and count the animals recorded on these trail cameras.  Crowdsourcing the data of where and when each photo was taken will hopefully lend further understanding of wildlife population distributions across Wisconsin and how these distributions change over time. Snapshot Wisconsin is a consistent mechanism to monitor all types of wildlife throughout the year.   The most frequently photographed animal happens to be Odocoileus virginianus, the whitetail deer.  Same here.  The top four animals captured here are as follows (in rank order) - Deer, Turkey, Cottontail and Racoon

Funded primarily through Pittman-Robertson dollars provided by the Federal government to Wisconsin DNR. Other funding is provided by a grant from the NASA Applied Science Program through the University of Wisconsin – Madison. Other partners include UW-Extension, Adler Planetarium, Zooniverse, Wisconsin Society of Science Teachers and the Wisconsin Environmental Education Board. 

Having commenced year number eight this last autumn I deployed the third camera having lost the previous two to critter damage and a technology failure.  With five additional cameras deployed on the property this is nothing new. 

Anyway, to celebrate the occasion I thought I'd share a handful of some of my favorite photos captured from the same location.  

 

 

 

From the top: a buck, fisher, coyote, turkey, bald eagle, fawn and some river otters.  Time flies when you're having fun. 

Fun Fact:  In July of last year the Snapshot program celebrated their 100 millionth photo.  The photo featured for Door County was taken by the camera we host.  

Manifestly Monroe

James Monroe served as the fifth president of the United States from 1817 to 1825.  

As a student at William and Mary he left school to enlist with the 3rd Virginia Regiment in 1775 joining thousands of colonists on our road to independence from British tyranny.  He participated in the New York and New Jersey campaigns and crossed the Delaware with Washington.  He was critically wounded at the Battle of Trenton nearly costing him his life.  He eventually rose to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel before studying law and beginning his lengthy political career.  This patriot was the last Founding Father to serve as president.

American Battlefield Trust

He is also remembered for the Monroe Doctrine - a foreign policy recently resurrected as one of several justifications for regime change in Venezuela.  I would like to take a few moments to walk down U.S. History's Memory Lane to refresh my reader's memories of the origins and particulars of Monroe's preeminent foreign policy.

It was 1821 when Secretary of State John Quincy Adams first expressed the notion that the American continent should be closed to colonization by other countries.  Adams felt strongly that any further colonization in America - excepting for Canada - should be left exclusively in the hands of the Americans.  As the principal architect and author it was his ideas that were subsequently adopted by President Monroe as the Monroe Doctrine.  Formalized in1823 this policy declared American dominance in the region and closed the Western Hemisphere to future European colonization and intervention. 

In simple terms the Monroe Doctrine put the European powers on notice to not colonize or interfere in the Americas anymore; in return, the United States would keep its nose out of European politics and conflicts.  President Monroe's intent was to affirm the influence of the United States in protecting newly independent countries in our hemisphere.  

Does the Monroe Doctrine allow or uphold regime change in the Western Hemisphere?  

It does not.

What it stipulates is threefold. That European powers shall not colonize or interfere in the Americas.  That the United States is opposed to external influence over newly independent nations in our hemisphere.  And it specifically does not authorize the United States to overthrow governments.  This critical distinction is that the doctrine was about keeping Europe out and not about the United States choosing governments in our hemisphere.

It was US foreign policies and actions in the late 19th and 20th centuries that went beyond the Monroe Doctrine that has contributed to misinterpretations and revisionist mashups both then and persisting to present time.  Specifically, interventions as a consequence of the Roosevelt Corollary.  Multiple subsequent Cold War interventions bastardized and reinterpreted the Doctrine to justify meddling in foreign governments including regime change.  

If you know your history you would know that the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 was a foreign policy warning to Europe; it says nothing about US expansion or territorial control.  Armed with this knowledge you would also know from our history that in the 1840s there evolved an expansionist dogma (not specific foreign policy) that the U.S. had a divine right to spread its power, way of life and expand its domain.  As a pervasive cultural attitude it justified imperial ambitions that led to the annexation of Texas, the Mexican-American War, and acquisition of the territories of Hawaii and the Philippines. 

This expansionist ideology was characterized as Manifest Destiny. 

I was wondering aloud the other day to an acquaintance who is a history nerd if there was some possibility that President Trump or Steven Miller somehow mangled their knowledge of U.S. history and got cattywampus with legitimate foreign policy and divinely-inspired expansionism.   

His short answer was yes; but it would be more accurate to say that the President has conflated the ideas in a rhetorical jumble, but not formally redefined them.

Trump's sonorous flourishes have drawn on themes about US dominance in the Western Hemisphere calling for the exclusion of Russian, Chinese and Iranian influences.  From time-to-time he has invoked the Monroe Doctrine as justification for strong action in Latin America.  Historians suggest that this framing treats our Western Hemisphere as a sphere of US influence and control more often aligned with the tenets of Manifest Destiny and to a lesser extent the policy of the Monroe Doctrine.

To be clear, the Monroe Doctrine is about excluding foreign empires; Manifest Destiny is about asserting U.S. power and expansion.  When the Monroe Doctrine is used to justify coercion, intervention, dominance, territorial expansion or regime change these motivations are more accurately a pretense for invoking Manifest Destiny. 

The President has implied a re-imagined Monroe Doctrine as a modern day equivalent he coined the 'Donroe Doctrine'.  Foreign policy and US history scholars suggest that renaming the Gulf Of Mexico and promising to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland echo Manifest Destiny in actual practice.

You're probably thinking:  Geeze Tom lighten-up on the semantics. You're being way too picky; cut the Prez some slack.  

To which my response would be:  Don't be a slacker.  And don't take my word for it.  Read your history.

The End of Venezuela?

Geopolitical strategist, Peter Zeihan, posted this yesterday morning. 

 

United States forces have captured the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, in the capital of Caracas.  Peter suggests that this event marks the beginning of the disintegration of what is left of the country... 

 

 

I got all sorta questions.

 

If you watched Telemundo last night - Venezuelans were celebrating.  They appeared ecstatic that Maduro is gone.  How could that possibly mean the beginning of the end?   If Peter believes Venezuela was already a dead state and where civilization is going to disintegrate, then wouldn't this action be a positive one as it provides Venezuelans an opportunity to turn things around?  It might be more like the beginning of Venezuela as a functional state.  

 

The military operation was nothing less than a spectacular tactical success.  Yet, what is the strategy to follow?  Is there a plan, some sort of architecture to manage an orderly transition?​  Or will this be a nation building mission with a vague and nebulous end result?  

 

Venezuela could install opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado; whom Maduro didn't allow to take office and Trump has also dismissed out of hand. 

 

It will be interesting to see where things are in one month, three month and six month intervals. 

 

And ask yourself this.  What gives the United States the authority to attack another country and remove their leadership?  

 

Who is next?

 

Mexico or Greenland? 

 

You Read It Here First

 

Yup, sometimes the king of bad predictions finds a truffle.  I wasn't wrong after-all.

You read it here first

I suppose we'll have to see what comes on Sunday, Monday and thereafter. 

 

They stole our oil, and we'll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries.

- Donald J. Trump