Picking Winners and Losers

I'm feeling pretty good about front-running the most serious impact of tariffs on our household economics.   New appliances, vehicles, water heater, laptop, tablet, iPhone, including locking-down the pricing of a steel roof on the house eighteen months ago.  

I know I sound like a broken record but contrary to what White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt or Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will tell you about other countries paying the tariffs they're not playing it straight.  Tariffs (sometimes called a duty) are a tax on imports.  Tariffs are not paid by the other countries.  They are paid by the US importer.  The importer might "eat" some of the tax but because they have to turn a profit they generally pass it on to the purchaser of the imported goods.  

Tariffs are a tax (just like a sales tax) paid by US companies and consumers. 

Which leads me to this tidbit.

American-made steel is now the most expensive steel on the planet.

Only about twenty percent of the steel sold domestically is imported.  The steel tariffs, previously at 25%, were raised last month to 50%.  Consequently, steel imports became more expensive.  Naturally, imported steel has declined in volume allowing American companies to increase their market share and raise prices to match that of imported steel.

Domestic trade policy has created an opportunistic landscape that allows domestic producers to simply charge more.  Why, you ask?  

Because they can.  

Scott Lincicome, vice president for trade policy at the Cato Institute said it well - It's just pure protectionism and cronyism. 

Heretofore, president Trump has not imposed tariffs on imports of raw materials such as iron ore, pig iron and other products that are precursors to steel production.  Nevertheless, that could change if he imposes a threatened fifty percent tariff on all imports from Brazil.

In a fit of pique Trump has accused Brazilian leadership of conducting a witch hunt against his pal former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro; menacing the South American country with a retaliatory tariff over internal politics.  This personal retribution against Brazil means American consumers would pay more for coffee, orange juice, paper and pulp and steel precursors sold to American mills. 

White House trade policy is bananas.  Does any of this come as a surprise to you?

This is called picking winners and losers.  And it seems like all of my previously, self-identified libertarian friends have gone silent.

Meanwhile, I'm having a tough time figuring-out how any of this improves your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  And maybe make the world a safer place.

Pants On Fire

In an email I received last Thursday from the Social Security Administration (SSA) I was told - Nearly 90 percent of beneficiaries will no longer pay federal taxes on their benefits.  

True or false?

That claim is false and misleading.

It does not repeal federal income taxes on Social Security benefits.  Instead, it introduces a temporary enhanced standard deduction—up to $6,000 for individuals (or $12,000 for married couples) - for taxpayers aged 65 and older.  This deduction begins phasing out at incomes above $75,000 (individuals) or $150,000 (couples) and expires after 2028.

The White House Council of Economic Advisors cited estimates that roughly 88% of seniors would, thanks to the larger deduction, fall below the taxable threshold on their benefits.  But that is not the same as eliminating the tax - it simply means my total income (post deduction) might result in a reduced tax owed this time around.

The SSA email implied a permanent repeal, rather than a temporary, income-based deduction.

While it may be true that a significant number of seniors (up to ~90%) might not pay federal tax on their social security benefits that tax will not be eliminated.  It is just temporarily offset by a higher deduction, subject to caps, that expires in 2028.

Call it what it is; a one-off deduction; not a repeal.

The taxation of Social Security benefits adds revenue to the program’s trust funds. The taxation of benefits began in 1983, in an effort to stabilize Social Security’s finances.  According to the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget this deduction hastens the projected insolvency of the trust fund by another year.

What To See In the June Sky

Argh!  

They're at it again.  Social media memes are circulating suggesting a planetary alignment early this month.

True or False?

Night sky expert Deborah Byrd of EarthSky has the straight scoop - including a reliably real planet forecast for the month of June...

Friday Music

Wednesday of last week Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band opened their Land of Hope & Dreams Tour in Manchester, England. 

Bruce launched this run of shows with three statements about the the current state of affairs in the United States, with comments preceding his songs "Land of Hope and Dreams," "House of a Thousand Guitars" and "My City of Ruins."  Naturally, this has gotten under some some people's skin.  

Snowflakes.

As a young man I came of age in the 1970s with Bruce Springsteen rocking my life via a four speaker Craig, surround sound, AM/FM, stereo cassette sound system in my trusty VW Westphalia camper van. I was a popular guy.  But I digress.

Not one to shy-away from politics Springsteen has long had an activist streak.  Which might explain why I've been a follower since I got hooked on the music with Greetings from Asbury Park.  And a fellow American who's grateful for patriots like Bruce to stick it to the oligarchs.

More than fifty years of rockin' the lives of ordinary Americans; yes, us little people. The Boss speaking truth to power.  

Some things never change.....

Spending Plan

click on the chart to enlarge

 

 

Cast your gaze to the chart.

The White House is calling this a budget; but since it only addresses some domestic discretionary portions of federal spending; it's not a real budget.

To qualify as a budget it has to also include defense, interest on the debt, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

It is a spending proposal.

The King's Speech

On Tuesday, March 4th President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress.  I do not begrudge our President the opportunity to take a victory lap; particularly on the heels of six busy weeks of cabinet hearings, executive orders, reductions in force, court hearings, spending freezes, tariffs followed by pauses, starts and follow-up pauses of the the latter.

The speech was exceedingly long however; meaning the volume of dubious claims or lies was target-rich.  Nothing new under the sun; nevertheless, worthy of truthful daylight.  Consequently, from time to time one of more of the King's gems will be featured here.

Enjoy. 

“We have had $1.7 trillion of new investment in America in just the past few weeks.”

This is a spurious figure, and Trump frequently takes false credit.  Most of this claim comes from statements by Apple ($500 billion) and Saudi Arabia ($600 billion). But Apple has a practice of making this sort of announcement after the installation of a new president.  In 2018, Apple announced it would contribute $350 billion to the US economy over five years; it made a similar commitment in 2021 during the Biden administration. The most recent announcement mostly overlaps with the latter 2021 announcement.

As for Saudi Arabia, who knows.  Word is that this was floated in a phone call between Trump and the Saudi leader.  In 2017, Trump claimed Saudi Arabia had struck $350 billion in deals.  Yet, after further inspection and analysis we learned that the "deal" was a haphazard collection of magical wishful thinking, fuzzy math and double counting.  In the end almost all of the investment occurred in Saudi Arabia - no the United States.

The president also talked-up a $100 billion investment in AI data centers; truthfully, OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman had launched the Stargate deal almost a year before Trump was inaugurated.  

Finally, a $100 billion investment announced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was originated by former president Biden and included funds from the Chips and Science Act, a bipartisan piece of legislation that passed in 2022.

So yeah, wink wink, tall tales and don't pay any attention to that man behind the curtain. 

The King's Speech

On Tuesday, March 4th President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress.  I do not begrudge our President the opportunity to take a victory lap; particularly on the heels of six busy weeks of cabinet hearings, executive orders, reductions in force, court hearings, spending freezes, tariffs followed by pauses, starts and follow-up pauses of the the latter.

The speech was exceedingly long however; meaning the volume of dubious claims or lies was target-rich.  Nothing new under the sun; nevertheless, worthy of truthful daylight.  Consequently, from time to time one of more of the King's gems will be featured here.

Enjoy. 

“We’re also identifying shocking levels of incompetence and probable fraud in the Social Security program for our seniors, and that our seniors and people that we love rely on. Believe it or not, government databases list 4.7 million Social Security members from people aged 100 to 109 years old. It lists 3.6 million people from ages 110 to 119. I don’t know any of them. I know some people that are rather elderly, but not quite. 3.47 million people from ages 120 to 129, 3.9 million people from ages 130 to 139, 3.5 million people from ages 140 to 149. …”

This is false.  From all outward appearances the President was repeating fabrications posted on social media by Elon Musk.  As has been covered in the media this is a consequence of the Social Security Administration's (SSA) maintenance of their data bases using COBOL - a computer code invented when I was a toddler.  

A report issued by the inspector general for SSA as recently as 2023 documented that virtually every beneficiary who lacked a date of birth was deceased.  Coincidentally, neither the DOGE, White House, member of Congress or the media has been able to positively identify a an individual that falls into any category of the President's fabrications.

The Golden Age

The president celebrated Liberation Day by announcing an avalanche of tariffs on dozens and dozens of countries.  His plan has evolved.  Tariffs to stem the flow of fentanyl across the border, tariffs to return all manufacturing to the US, tariffs to punish our adversaries, tariffs to punish our friends, tariffs to make us rich and prosperous and to return America to the late 1800s; a time when tariffs financed the government.  

JP Morgan Wealth Management analyst Michael Cembalest had this to say - This borders on twilight zone territory. 

To be clear, a tariff is a tax paid by an importer on a product or service originating overseas.  It is a barrier to trade and a useful tool if applied selectively.  A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more goods and services than it exports.  In other words, the value of what the country buys from other countries is greater than the value of what it sells to them.

                                            If imports > exports, it's a trade deficit

                                            If exports > imports, it's a trade surplus

Is a trade deficit bad?  It depends.  Trade deficits in and of themselves are neither good or bad; its impact depends on what is causing it and what else is happening in the economy.  If you are like me you likely have a trade deficit with your favorite grocery.  Foreign trade frequently works the same way.

The administration's calculation of 'reciprocal tariffs' is flawed because it is not based-upon tariffs (a trade barrier) but on trade deficits (balance of trade).  The calculation goes like this:  The 'tariff rate' for each trading partner is a function of trade aggregates - specifically, the deficit divided by US imports, then divided by one-half, with a minimum of 10%.  

Remarkably, no allowance anywhere is made for specific barriers such as actual tariffs, digital services taxes, value-added taxes or monetary policy.  Furthermore, the value of services are omitted from the Trump calculation.  Only the trade deficit in goods is measured.  Avocados are quantified and the intellectual capital and contributions of a software engineer are not.  Considering that our GDP (total economy) is 68 to 70 percent services this omission has left the economic community scratching their collective heads.

For example, Singapore is a relatively free-trade-oriented country, while Brazil makes considerably more use of tariffs and other trade manipulations.  However, both end up with the 10 percent rate because of their goods trade balances with the US.  By contrast, Vietnam, which exports a great deal to the US  yet has worked to make its policies amenable to the US gets no credit for the effort.  Trump announced a 46 percent tax on all Vietnamese imports.

In a recent piece published by Axios, flaws of this calculation reach all the way to Madagascar; a small, poor country with an abundance of vanilla.  The US is a large and wealthy country with a sweet tooth; consequently, there is a natural trade to be made.  They send us their precious vanilla pods, we send them dollars they need for day-to-day necessities.

By the logic of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs that's not a natural trade at all. To quote Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick on CNBC this is evidence of tiny Madagascar picking on us.  Because it runs a trade surplus with the United States, Madagascar is being hit with a 47% tariff, not only on vanilla but also on everything else it exports to us. 

Given that Madagascar has precious little need for US exports, that means in practice that the tariff has to be big enough to bring that trade deficit down to zero and stop Americans from consuming more than a thousand tons of vanilla every year.  Or switch to domestically produced artificially-flavored vanilla. 

So let's be truthful; a tariff is a tax on consumers.  And while this tax won't be a problem for a billionaire it will be a costly annoyance to the middle class.  It will be a burden to the aspiring middle class and devastating to everyone else.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said it best - It’s now clear that the Administration computed reciprocal tariffs without using tariff data. This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy, or "RFK thought" is to vaccine science. The Trump tariff policy makes little sense EVEN if you believe in protectionist mercantilist economics.

 

Do Vaccines Cause Autism?

Reported cases of autism have been rising for several reasons, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that autism itself is becoming more common. There are a half-dozen key factors at play that explain the increase:

• Improved Awareness – More people, including parents, teachers, and doctors, recognize the signs of autism.  Consequently, better and more frequent diagnoses.

• Expanded Diagnostic Criteria – Over the years, the definition of autism has broadened to include a wider range of symptoms and severity.  This is referred to as Autism Spectrum Disorder, or ASD.

• Better Screening and Early Diagnosis – Many children are now screened for autism at an early age, allowing for earlier detection compared to past decades.

• Changes in Reporting Practices – Schools, healthcare providers, and government agencies track autism diagnoses more systematically than before.  Improved reporting results in more diagnoses. 
  

• Reduced Stigma – As society becomes more accepting of the manner an individual's brain works.  This results in more families and individuals seeking evaluations and support.

• Environmental and Genetic Factors – Some researchers have examined whether environmental influences such as parental age or prenatal factors may contribute to a genuine rise.  Causal relations are inconclusive.

Changes in diagnostic criteria have played a major role in the rising number of reported autism cases. The definition has been broadened.  Autism was first described in the 1940s, but its definition has evolved since. Previously, autism was diagnosed in individuals manifesting severe symptoms. Nowadays it includes a spectrum of behaviors ranging from mild to severe. 

The introduction of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in the DSM-5 (2013) now includes several previous diagnoses, including Asperger’s Syndrome and Pervasive Developmental Disorder-Not Otherwise Specified (PDD-NOS), under one umbrella. This change meant that many people who wouldn’t have been diagnosed before were now considered autistic.

There has also been a shift from other diagnoses to autism. Before ASD was widely recognized, many children with mild social or communication difficulties were diagnosed with conditions like intellectual disability, ADHD, or speech and language disorders instead of autism. Individuals previously labeled with other conditions were reclassified as autistic.

Screening tools have improved with diagnoses being made as early as 18-24 months of age.  Before the 1990s many children with autism went undiagnosed or were diagnosed much later in life.

Finally, schools and medical institutions now have stronger incentives to diagnose autism, partly because children with ASD qualify for special education services and therapies. Better tracking and reporting of cases leaves the impression that autism is increasing dramatically.

As for the theory that vaccines are a causal factor of autism - they do not.

This misconception originated from a 1998 study by Andrew Wakefield, which was subsequently debunked and retracted due to serious flaws, unethical practices, and conflicts of interest. Since then, numerous large-scale scientific studies have found no link between vaccines and autism. Consider this:

Large studies of millions of children have confirmed that vaccines, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine, do not increase autism risk.

A 2019 Danish study involving over 650,000 children found no difference in autism rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated children.

If anybody tell you that vaccines contain mercury, they're liars.  Concerns about thimerosal (a mercury-containing preservative) led to its removal from most vaccines in the early 2000s.  Autism rates continued to rise even after thimerosal was removed, proving it wasn’t a factor.

Lastly, avoid vaccines at your own peril.  The anti-vaccine movement led to outbreaks of measles, whooping cough, and other preventable diseases.  Vaccines protect children and communities from serious illnesses.

The truth of the matter is that there is no scientific evidence that vaccines cause autism. The idea has been thoroughly investigated and debunked. Vaccines are safe, effective, and essential for preventing deadly diseases.

Link to a Guest Editorial over at the New York Times.

The King's Speech

On Tuesday, March 4th President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress.  I do not begrudge our President the opportunity to take a victory lap; particularly on the heels of six busy weeks of cabinet hearings, executive orders, reductions in force, court hearings, spending freezes, tariffs followed by pauses, starts and follow-up pauses of the the latter.

The speech was exceedingly long however; meaning the volume of dubious claims or lies was target-rich.  Nothing new under the sun; nevertheless, worthy of truthful daylight.  Consequently, from time to time one of more of the King's gems will be featured here.

Enjoy. 

“But it was built at tremendous cost of American blood and treasure. Thirty-eight thousand workers died building the Panama Canal. They died of malaria. They died of snakebites and mosquitoes.”

The President is ignorant of history.  An earlier failed attempt by France to construct a canal resulted in 22,000 deaths, mainly a consequence of yellow fever and malaria.  The American engineering enterprise resulted in 5,609 deaths (out of 56,000 workers); mainly a consequence of injury and disease.  Most were Black workers from the Caribbean; only 31 Americans perished.

Polezniy*

Astronauts from the International Space Station (ISS) safely returned to earth today.  This tidbit has been floating around on the cesspool of Face Book misinformation.

The truth is easy people. And as AI Technology evolves it might possibly inject thought into social media. Thanks to the ChatGTP and other AI sources it takes only a couple of taps on a device to reveal the facts. 

Besides, do the people that re post these lame and lazy memes understand they're largely regurgitating content served-up by Russian and Communist Red Chinese troll farms?

You’re welcome…..

NASA astronauts Sunita “Suni” Williams and Barry “Butch” Wilmore returned safely to Earth today, March 18, 2025, after an extended mission aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Their mission, initially planned for eight days to test Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft, was prolonged to over nine months due to technical issues with the Starliner capsule. Consequently, their return was facilitated by SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission, which successfully splashed down off the coast of Florida.    

During their extended stay, political figures, including former President Donald Trump and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, alleged that the Biden administration had neglected efforts to expedite the astronauts’ return. However, these claims have been refuted by NASA officials, who emphasized that the astronauts were safe throughout their mission and that the delays were due to technical challenges rather than political decisions.   

Therefore, the assertion that President Biden abandoned the astronauts is unfounded. The delays in their return were primarily caused by technical issues with the Starliner spacecraft, and NASA ensured the astronauts’ safety and well-being during their extended mission. 

*Translation - Useful Idiot
 

The King's Speech

On Tuesday, March 4th President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress.  I do not begrudge our President the opportunity to take a victory lap; particularly on the heels of six busy weeks of cabinet hearings, executive orders, reductions in force, court hearings, spending freezes, tariffs followed by pauses, starts and follow-up pauses of the the latter.

The speech was exceedingly long however; meaning the volume of dubious claims or lies was target-rich.  Nothing new under the sun; nevertheless, worthy of truthful daylight.  Consequently, from time to time one of more of the King's gems will be featured here.

Enjoy. 

“We inherited from the last administration an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare.”  

Nonsense.  I have covered the subject of the economy more times than I can count.  All you have to do is click on the the subject Economics Label on the left side of the page or in the bottom margin of this post.  Recent detailed coverage here.  Only weeks before the election, the Economist newspaper published a cover story declaring that the U.S. economy was The Envy of the World.

The King's Speech

On Tuesday, March 4th President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress.  I do not begrudge our President the opportunity to take a victory lap; particularly on the heels of six busy weeks of cabinet hearings, executive orders, reductions in force, court hearings, spending freezes, tariffs followed by pauses, starts and follow-up pauses of the the latter.

The speech was exceedingly long however; meaning the volume of dubious claims or lies was target-rich.  Nothing new under the sun; nevertheless, worthy of truthful daylight.  Consequently, from time to time one of more of the King's gems will be featured here.

Enjoy. 

“I withdrew from the unfair Paris Climate accord, which was costing us trillions of dollars.”

This is false. Each country set its own commitments under the Paris accord, so Trump’s comment makes little sense. He could have unilaterally changed the commitments offered by Presidents Obama and Biden, which is technically allowed under the accord. Indeed, the agreement is nonbinding, so there was nothing in the agreement that stops the United States from building, say, coal plants, or gives permission to China or India to build coal plants. 

Government doesn't build or operate power generation stations.

Is It Only The Economy, Stupid?

A variation on the title of this post was coined by strategist James Carville as a missive to campaign workers leading up to Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush.  I've written about the subject many times over the years.  Is it only about the economy?  Or is there more?  I would postulate that it is the economy and much  more.

Tomorrow Donald J. Trump will be sworn-in as America's 47th President.  Who, in the lead-up to the festivities, would tell you that he alone can fix our country's hellscape of lawlessness, disorder, economic collapse, inflation, energy dependence, mobocracy, crisis and chaos.

Perhaps you share that view.  Not me; I would submit that by any rational measure of the condition of the United State of America the president-elect will be taking over a country in rather decent condition. Let's take a walk thru the relevant numbers.

Contrary to what the president-elect will tell you drug overdose deaths are down and the manufacturing sector has created more jobs than at any time in the last decade and a half.  Although some prices remain stubbornly high; inflation is down significantly.  Inasmuch as federal largess under both Trump and Biden contributed to the expansion of the money supply Trump now shoulders the burden to reduce the cost of my groceries.  Fair is fair. 

December delivered an overall blowout jobs report and wages are up and continuing to rise, all the while unemployment is at levels before the COVID shitshow hit the fan.  Domestic energy production of crude oil and natural gas are at record levels and we are now the global leader in production and export of crude oil.  Meanwhile, a gallon of regular unleaded, around here anyway, will set you back less than $2.50.  We are awash in an embarrassment of energy and production.

Nevertheless, it goes beyond the economy.  Illegal immigration is belatedly, but at long last down and we've found ourselves with the lowest violent crime rates in fifty years.  No American military forces are in a hot war elsewhere in the world and Trump's go-to Gold Standard for how he's doing - the stock market has set a new record for the past two years.  Finally, Americans have shown signs of coming around to actually recognizing and accepting the reality that conditions on the ground are pretty darn good.   

I'll bet you a steak dinner that in reasonably short order President Trump will take credit for the strong economy he is about to inherit.  That's because as I gaze across my landscape I don't see a hellscape; I see prosperity and the best economy on the planet.  If you think I'm making this up out of thin air; fight me.

Do not get the impression I am diminishing the reality that not each and every single last American, shares the same upwardly economic prosperity and living conditions.  Poor people and economically disadvantaged families are real.  Nor am I blind to politics.  It is certainly in Trump's self-interests to paint as bleak a landscape a possible for his base.  Nothing new under the sun there.

As Trump assumes office there are no shortage of challenges ahead.  Russia, China and Iran are failing states.  Russian and North Korean military personnel allegedly execute Korean wounded to erase evidence of North Korean involvement in the war against Ukraine. Ugh.

Here at home, domestic terrorism has, again, reared its head.  There is funding the budget and passage of a reconciliation bill, the DOGE, the debt ceiling, tax policy, Social Security and Medicare.  Will there be a comprehensive immigration policy?   99 cent a dozen eggs?

Placing a higher value on action I try to tune-out the talk.  Consequently, I'm looking forward to detailed policy to materialize.  You know, policies which will improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  And maybe make the world a safer place.

Donald Trump has been dealt a solidly good hand and I'm looking forward to being witness to how he plays it.

Bring it on.....

New Year Night Sky

Not surprisingly Face Book also happens to be a vast cesspool of astronomical information.

Sheesh!

Anyway, here's the straight scoop debunking what you can and cannot see during this month of stargazing.

You're welcome.

Bounce Off The Bottom

Are you better-off today than you were four years ago?

This photo is making the rounds on social media as evidence that gasoline prices were cheaper during the Trump administration four years ago.

I recently paid $4.15/gallon for non-ethanol premium for our small engine stuff; so factually the photo is correct.  What isn't told is that this was in the midst of the COVID recession the last year of the Trump presidency.  There was ample supply and nobody was traveling.  Gas and diesel prices cratered along with everything else.  Including the financial markets, employment numbers and the national economy. Inasmuch as this was a global phenomenon blaming Trump for any of this is a specious supposition.

While Trump didn't cause the pandemic, in my personal view his mishandling of the government response to the pandemic certainly contributed to a sharp, short-lived recession and likely contributed to his reelection loss in November of that year.

To be clear, I think presidents get too much blame for bad economies and take too much credit for strong economies.  Truthfully, it is a heavy lift for a president to move something as complex as the US economy. For the record, supply/demand markets determine gasoline prices. Not presidents.  If you believe otherwise I've got a bridge to sell you.

I am better-off today than four years ago.

Peace.

Total Recall

Seems to me that about half the population has no memory of life four years ago.  I certainly remember it.  I made a point of documenting events on the ground in real time because I had a hunch that there would be revisionist history afoot before too long.    

Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

Consider this.

Four years ago the stock market had collapsed - hitting the worst weeks since the Great Recession of 2008 - as the country spiraled into a years-long pandemic that claimed more that 1 million American lives, cratered the economy, upended our daily lives and arguably costing Trump the election.

I don't believe for a moment that voters blame Trump for the pandemic - a once-in-a-lifetime calamity thrust upon the entire world.  But they did fault his response to it.  The pandemic showcased a leader who exhibited the full panoply of characteristics that his supporters love and his detractors revile.

Excess Deaths - New York Times

Don't take my word for this as you can readily navigate this blog for a post history.  Simply use the TAGS feature in the left margin and click on key words like: COVID, Doing the Right Thing, Donald Trump, Healthcare, Liars or Quarantine Living.  Or use the search function in the upper left corner and search under Willful Blindness or any other discrete subject you think might be relevant.

A year ago the President was talking about shining ultraviolet light inside our bodies and injecting ourselves with disinfectant.  That's nuts.

 

So to answer the question of whether you or I were better off four years ago I would say, nope.  Six seven or eight years ago are debatable.  Four years ago was an absolute shit show.  Donald Trump struggled mightily during the pandemic and he failed to protect us.

Four Years Ago

Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

Good question.  I suppose from a crime perspective I am. 

To be fair, I live in rural America, where there is some crime but not enough to stop me and my neighbors from leaving our keys in our cars.  Having said that, national figures concerning crime are universally available and quite measurable.

Four years ago in 2020 we were witness to the largest increase in the murder rate in the history of this country.  Things were not going well.  America was not great again.  Since then the murder rate has fallen each and every year.  The decline from 2022 to 2023 represents one of the largest declines in the murder rate in the history of our country.

With the exception of motor vehicle theft and shoplifting (which remain shockingly high) most of the remaining crimes covered in this analysis are either below or have returned to approximately 2019 levels.  Most notable are declines in drug offenses and residential burglary.

So, yeah.  As a nation we're safer and better off than we were four years ago.

Setting The Record Straight

It is not a crime to pay hush money. 

It is a crime to cook the company books to hide it.

It is the cover-up that gets you in trouble. 

Who Owns Our Farmland?

There's been plenty of chatter lately on the interweb about foreign ownership of US farmland - much of it singling-out China in particular for scorn.  Anyone who follows me here or knows me on a personal basis would tell you that I am no fan of Communist Red China.  We can have a discussion another day about all there is to dislike about these commies and the teetering and dire condition of their economy and social state resulting from insular autocratic rule.  Today I would like to set the record straight on the foreign ownership matter.

Foreign persons or entities held an interest in over 43.4 million acres of US agricultural land as of December 31, 2022.

This is 3.4 percent of all privately held agricultural land and nearly 2 percent of all land in the United States.  The Top Ten countries who own the most acres are as follows:

Canada (12,845,000 acres)

Netherlands (4,875,000)

Italy (2,703,000)

United Kingdom (2,538,000)

Germany (2,269,000)

Portugal (1,483,000)

France ( 1,316,000)

Denmark (856,000)

Luxembourg (802,000)

Ireland (760,000)

According to a USDA report from 2021, China owns roughly 384,000 acres of US agricultural land.  Of that, 195,000 acres, valued at almost $2 billion at time of purchase, are owned by 85 Chinese investors, which could be individuals, companies or the government. 

Of the 109 countries that own US farmland, China ranks No. 18, far behind No. 1 Canada (12.8 million acres) and even the Cayman Islands (672,000). 

Chinese agricultural land ownership increased significantly under the Former Guy.  Only about 550 acres were purchased from 2015 to 2019.  Chinese ownership jumped 30% from 2019 to 2020, from 247,000 acres to roughly 352,000.

You're welcome.....

 Source:  Forbes