During a Tuesday call in to the “Fox & Friends” morning television show, Trump said his orders have transformed Washington into -
Just an incredible place in literally four days. Did you see what’s happening with the restaurants? They’re bursting, they were all closing and going bankrupt.
It's gotten easier to fact-check misinformation, lies and the president himself with Open AI.
And for the record, Washington Post polling reveals the 69% of DC residents want the National Guard to go home. It's apparently a bad look and impacting local business..
It does not repeal federal income taxes on Social Security benefits. Instead, it introduces a temporary enhanced standard deduction—up to $6,000 for individuals (or $12,000 for married couples) - for taxpayers aged 65 and older. This deduction begins phasing out at incomes above $75,000 (individuals) or $150,000 (couples) and expires after 2028.
The White House Council of Economic Advisors cited estimates that roughly 88% of seniors would, thanks to the larger deduction, fall below the taxable threshold on their benefits. But that is not the same as eliminating the tax - it simply means my total income (post deduction) might result in a reduced tax owed this time around.
The SSA email implied a permanent repeal, rather than a temporary, income-based deduction.
While it may be true that a significant number of seniors (up to ~90%) might not pay federal tax on their social security benefits that tax will not be eliminated. It is just temporarily offset by a higher deduction, subject to caps, that expires in 2028.
Call it what it is; a one-off deduction; not a repeal.
The taxation of Social Security benefits adds revenue to the program’s
trust funds. The taxation of benefits began in 1983, in an effort to
stabilize Social Security’s finances. According to the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget this deduction hastens the projected insolvency of the trust fund by another year.
The European nations together have spent $100 billion, or maybe more than that, less than us.
- Donald Trump
This is on the subject of Ukraine. Donald Trump is either lying or confused (you pick) because he's got this turned-around.
The United States and Europeans spent roughly the the same amounts in the year immediately following Russia's unprovoked invasion and assault on their neighbor.
European aid continued to grow in 2023 while aid from the US flatlined without GOP support.
President Biden eventually secured a bipartisan aid package in April.
Americans are being squeezed out of the labor force and their jobs are taken. By the way, you know who's taking the jobs, the jobs that are created? One hundred and seven percent of those jobs are taken by illegal aliens.
- Donald Trump
Nope. It's a vast demographic shift Mr. Trump. I have blogged on this subject in the past as us retired (and planning to retire) Baby Boomers are the pig moving thru the python.
Unemployment as been at or below 4.1 percent for 30 months. We have a dearth of workers - not an excess. The number of native-born American workers has remained basically static since 2019. And this is a consequence of people retiring.
Immigrants - legal or otherwise - have nothing to do with it. Trump is confused or lying. Take your pick.
The tax cuts spurred the greatest economy that we've ever seen just prior to COVID. The country was going like never before. And we were ready to start paying down debt.
- Donald Trump
During President Trump's tenure in office the national debt exploded - adding 40 percent to the total outstanding debt. Nevertheless, if you read the reporting in the link there is nuance to this picture.
The national debt ballooned at a faster clip under Trump. This was driven by two things:
The Trump tax cuts increased the annual operating deficit to $1 trillion in 2019; up from $680 billion in 2017.
Pandemic spending under Trump increased the the national debt to $27.7 trillion; up from $19.8 trillion.
At no point during the Trump occupancy of the White House was the government ever in a position to pay down the debt. He's lying.
Deficit spending on this scale by any administration is unsustainable.
What we did was incredible. We got the largest tax cut in history.
- Donald Trump
The valid means by which to measure the size of any administration's tax cut is to compare it to the size of the economy at that particular point in time.
Using this yardstick, the tax cuts passed into law during the tenure of President Trump was the eighth largest of the past century.
This puts it significantly behind cuts enacted under Presidents Reagan and Obama.
I'm old enough to remember and was working pretty damn hard to launch a professional practice when Reagan signed into law the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. ERTA - sometimes called the Kemp-Roth Tax Cut - was enacted by the 97th Congress and targeted to encourage economic growth. It was seismic.
And remember - The Trump tax cuts favored individuals and large corporations who have significantly more income and personal wealth than you and I have. Middle America and small business start-ups got the equivalent of sloppy seconds.
The Reagan tax cut was more than four times larger in scale. Donald Trump is a liar.
Our cities are flooded with illegal aliens. Americans are being
squeezed out of the labor force and their jobs are taken. And by the
way, you know who's taking the jobs? The jobs that are created, 107
percent of those jobs are taken by illegal aliens.
- Donald Trump
Nope. Undocumented immigrants are not taking jobs from US citizens. At least in any meaningful way. Employment for our country's native-born has increased by more than 7.2 million since 2021.
Furthermore, employment for foreign-born workers increased by almost 5 million over the same period. This figure includes undocumented, legally-admitted immigrants, refugees, students and temporary arrivals such as the seasonal workers that you'll find here on the peninsula.
Tariffs are not going to drive prices higher. It's just going to cause countries that have been ripping us off for years, like China and so many others. In all fairness to China it's going to just force them to pay us a lot of money.
Donald Trump seems to be enamored by tariffs. He wielded his tariff bludgeon frequently during his tenure as president. And he continues to express his fondness for tariffs on the campaign trail today.
Economics 101 - When you subject imported goods to tariffs (a form of taxation) the cost of those goods generally increases by the full amount of the tariff. Translation: Consumers pay them. And they contribute to inflation in our economy.
Fact: In my first year of retirement we purchased a Kawasaki Mule from a local implement dealer. Trump tariffs added more than $800 dollars to the purchase price.
In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally. Serious fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and California. Why isn't the media reporting on this? Serious bias, big problem! I will be asking for a major investigation into VOTER FRAUD.
- Donald Trump
For the very first time, in 2016, a presidential candidate (and winner) made the broad and sweeping claim of widespread illegal voting. Trump claimed anywhere from three to five million illegal votes were cast to deprive him of a popular vote victory. Consequently, in 2017 President Trump appointed a blue ribbon commission to find evidence of voting by undocumented immigrants in 2016.
A GOP-led audit in Georgia leading-up to the 2022 midterm elections found that while 1,634 non-citizens had attempted to register to vote in the state since 1997, not a single one was able to do so. Election officials caught and prevented every single attempt. Further evidence that existing compliance with state elections integrity works.
Without any evidence that undocumented immigrants are stealing elections why is MAGA world claiming that this is a clear and present danger to the integrity of our elections?
Occam's Razor suggests that the explanation that requires the fewest assumptions is usually best. The Trump campaign is setting the table. If Donald Trump loses the November election it will be illegal migrants who stole it. Unlike Smartmatic and Dominion voting systems; faceless, undocumented immigrants cannot sue you for making baseless and unproven accusations.
If you think about it, this strategy is sublime.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting that voter fraud doesn't happen; just not on the scale to invalidate a national election.
Consider this:
Non-citizens have been barred from voting in federal elections since 1924. Additionally, in 1996 Congress made non-citizen voting in federal elections a crime punishable by fines and imprisonment.
Under federal law a non-citizen who votes illegally can receive a prison term of up to five years and fined up to $250,000 if citizenship status was intentionally misrepresented. There are also immigration-related consequences. Casting just one solitary vote gets you deported. Just being registered to vote can be the basis for denial of a citizenship application.
Furthermore, there is a paper trail. There are records of who votes so it is an exceedingly simple task for elections administrators, political parties and activists of all stripes to identify anyone who is ineligible.
Detection can also come directly through US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) who can require naturalization applicants to furnish evidence that they have never registered or voted. Elections administrators are routinely required to produce documentation of compliance for non-citizens going through the process of becoming a naturalized citizen.
Finally, a non-citizen who votes illegally will add one vote to the final tally. Considering the penalties, paper trail (including a signature) and consequences of casting that one vote; is an exceedingly inefficient mechanism to steal an election. Undocumented individuals naturally prefer to fly under the radar of government scrutiny. This defies logic.
Nevertheless, if you lose an election fair and square, the undocumented are your scapegoat. Your people have already been conditioned to believe it before a single vote has been cast.
The only jobs Biden created are for illegal immigrants and bounce-back jobs - They're bounced back from the COVID.
-Donald Trump
During the Trump presidency the economy generated an average of 182,000 jobs a month, significantly smaller than 277,000 a month during the Biden presidency. Bill Clinton's average monthly jobs gain happened to be 242,000.
In the interest of fairness to both sides, these figures excluded the impact of the COVID pandemic during the last year of Trump's term of office and the post-pandemic bounce for Biden.
From the FB cesspool of lazy economic thought there is this click bait making the rounds of the most fervent of my MAGA pals.....
Her unrealized TAX isn’t only applicable to your home. It’s applicable to any asset you own.
Car
Guns
Furniture
Jewelry
Art
Pensions
Stocks
Land and one of the biggest ones of them all 401K’s!
This precious nugget (likely the work of a Russian or Chinese Troll Farm) is hilarious. Thanks for bringing a grin to the face of this recovering financial guy.
It is important to note that, as always, major tax proposals like this face significant hurdles to becoming law. Even if Harris becomes President of the United States, any major tax changes that might impact entrepreneurship and venture capitalism would require congressional approval. Considering the deep divide in Congress the likelihood of a controversial proposal such as a tax on unrealized gains has an exceedingly low probability of passing into law.
So, aside from the fact that capital gains tax treatment does not apply to pensions, 401ks, IRAs and other retirement plans this presupposes the following:
Kamala Harris wins the Presidency.
The democrats win the House.
The democrats win the Senate.
The proposed legislation passes the House and Senate without any modification or mark-ups.
And President Harris signs it into law.
So, before my Face Book friends pee their pants over this; this is what it looks-like. (Edited for brevity):
It
applies only to individuals with at least $100 million in wealth (.01% of the population) who do
not pay at least a 25% tax rate on their income (inclusive of
unrealized capital gains). Payments can be spread out over subsequent
years.
Within that $100 million club, you'd only pay taxes on
unrealized capital gains if at least 80% of your wealth is in liquid assets such as stocks, bonds and crypto currencies; not shares of privately-held business or real estate. One caveat
for this illiquid group is that there would be a deferred tax of up to
10% on unrealized capital gains upon exit.
In short, it would not apply to middle-income Americans like you and me. Or most startup founders or investors. If I had to hazard a guess, it singles-out top hedge fund managers.
This was an overthrow of a president. This was an overthrow. They deposed a president. It was a coup of a president. They forced him out. It was a coup. That was the first coup of the history of our country, and it was very successful.
- Donald Trump
Our ride on the Trump Train has predictably made a whistle stop at the Rigged Election Station.
Since Old Uncle Joe abdicated the reelection throne. And following a vote of the delegates, at none other than the national party convention, the Democratic party's presidential nominee is officially Kamala Harris.
In the last month things have gotten a bit more difficult for candidate Trump. The polling has shifted. The Vegas betting line isn't going in his favor. And inasmuch as Donald Trump is incapable of political failure; naturally, this is all about dark forces conspiring to keep him out of power.
Election interference arrives attired as a coup. Consequently, the election is rigged and the results cannot be trusted.
It's the same old shtick.
If you're not already riding the Trump Train with me; All Aboard! The next stop will be unpredictable and fun.
We have an inflation crisis that is making life unaffordable,
ravaging the incomes of working and low-income families, and crushing,
just simply crushing, our people like never before.
- Donald Trump
The monthly inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) soared to a high of 9 percent in June of 2022. The annualized rate has dropped considerably since then with the year-over-year rate last month of3 percent.
Former president Trump would lead you to believe that President Biden is solely responsible for the recent rise in prices. Of course I'm old enough to to have lived with inflation and have even blogged about it from time-to-time. I purchased my first house in the early 1980s when inflation was roaring-along at double digits and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would set you back 14.5 %. But I digress.
As a recovering financial guy I know a few things about this subject. First, inflation usually (but not always) rises quickly and falls slowly. Second, we live in a market economy and therefore inflation rises and falls as a consequence of market forces and not by a president flipping a switch.
The recent bout of inflation has its roots in the COVID pandemic. Lock downs caused pent-up consumer demand to spike as the economy eventually recovered from the Trump recession of his last year in office. This was further aggravated by global supply chains disrupted by the pandemic. Add-in the the government largess (expansion of the money supply or M-2) that began with stimulus spending under Trump that continued in the early years of Biden's term of office.
A simple supply and demand equation. Economics 101.
It was a perfect storm of events the likes of which we haven't seen before; with responsibility shared by both presidents. Corporate greed is the cherry on top.
Because this was a global phenomenon I would submit that Old Uncle Joe is incapable of influencing global economics on this scale.
I won't bore you any further; if you'd like to learn more on the subject simply type 'inflation' in the search box in the upper-left corner of the blog and a bunch of posts on the subject will pop-up for your late night reading pleasure.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is playing fast and loose with the facts.
We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country by
far. We are a nation that has the opportunity to make an absolute
fortune with its energy.
- Donald Trump
Nottrue. This lie is easily disputed.
If you visit the Energy Information Administration, at 44 billion barrels of proven oil reserves we rank 10th. Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Canada and Iraq rank (in that order) in the top five.
As a recovering financial advisor I happen to follow this sector closely and in a shameless plug for the blog encourage you to search for posts in the subject of energy markets. Go to the Labels on the left margin of the homepage and click on Energy Markets. Or use the search tool in the upper left corner for subject matter.
In
what became known as Black Monday II, this was one of three days in March
of 2020 that the sell-offs were so extreme that the New York Stock
Exchange temporarily suspended trading. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average plummeted nearly 3,000 points, wiping out 13 percent of its
value. It was a chaotic time for the chaos president.
The
cratering stock market presaged the coming economic calamity including a
unemployment rate that would more than triple to a high of 13 percent.
To
be clear, I think presidents get too much blame for bad economies and
take too much credit for strong economies. Truthfully, it is a heavy
lift for a president to move something as complex as the US economy.
Nevertheless, as of the publication of this post the broad market indices have doubled since their nadir in 2020.
The S&P 500 index gained about 70 percent during Trump's first term. It has risen another 50 percent under Biden. Obama beats them both.
Of
course I'm smart enough to know markets periodically correct. And
investing in a single index does not constitute a diversified portfolio
or appropriate investment policy. I am also smart enough to understand
you should not solely conflate the rise of a stock market as a barometer
of economic success. That can lead to a bad case of schadenfreude.
Pro Tip -
Significant market corrections can present opportunity for savvy
investors. Another reason I prospered as a consequence of all four
years of the Trump presidency. Same for Biden.
With all due regard and respect for Dragnet's Joe Friday, Thursday evening's debate was rife with inaccuracies. I'm not talking about the typical election year hyperbole; I'm talking about intentional mistruths and outright lies.
A couple of the whoppers that stand out include:
We have a thousand millionaires in America, I mean billionaires. And what's happening? They're in a situation where they in fact pay 8.2 percent taxes.
- Biden
Pants on fire! Biden is referencing a 2021 White House study concluding that the 400 wealthiest taxpayers paid an effective tax rate of 8 percent.
Because the estimate included unrealized capital gains in the calculation the resulting effective tax rate is fallacious. Smoke and mirrors wrong. A deception. That is not the way the tax code works in real life.
People are taxed on capital gains only when the asset (stock, real estate, business, whatever) is sold.
According to the IRS, the top 1 percent of taxpayers (defined as income of $548,000 and up) paid taxes averaging 26%.
He's destroying Medicare because all of these people are coming in. They're putting them on Medicare. They're putting them on Social Security. They're going to destroy Social Security. This man is going to single-handedly destroy Social Security.
- Trump
Some of you readers may recall my own experience with applying for Medicare the summer of 2020.
My application for coverage was declined.
Yup. Because I happen to have been born in another country; Germany in-fact. No matter that I have been paying into the system forever and hold a valid US passport. The Social Security Administration had me classified as a non-citizen. I was undocumented and therefore ineligible. I can only speculate; but this was likely a bureaucratic record-keeping holdover traced to my registration for the draft in the very early 1970s. The local draft board was somehow convinced that because I held both a US Army birth certificate and a German birth certificate my dual citizenship would entice me to flee the country and thereby circumvent any attempt at conscription and free trip to Vietnam. The fix was I had to renounce any claim to German citizenship. After I raised my right hand and swore an oath to absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and
fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty, of
whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen, I was issued a Certificate of Naturalization. As a sole citizen of the US of A my draft-dodging moment was over.
The people over at the Social Security Administration eventually cleared-up any confusion over my citizenship status and I am covered by both Medicare and Social Security. Happy ending to a stressful three months.
Donald Trump is a liar. And this lie is a howler. Sure, I know his followers believe this BS but the truth of the matter is that undocumented individuals are ineligible for both Social Security and Medicare.
That a dazed and confused Joe Biden didn't nail Trump to the wall over this has me stumped.
The entire Thursday event over at CNN was an unparalleled shit show.
Fresh on the heels of her vaping, groping, crotch grabbing and general bad behavior that got her thrown out of a Denver theater, Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) has been outed by the Fact-Checkers over at The Washington Post over a wacky claim about payments to undocumented immigrants - which also happens to be almost a couple of decades old and irrelevant to the US. According to Boebert:
Biden is giving each illegal family $2,200 per month plus a free plane ticket and free medical care. If you come to this country illegally, you get everything handed to you on a silver platter. If you're a struggling American citizen, you get nothing. You actually just subsidize this foolishness.
Of course all of this is made-up. Under US law, documented migrants who have made a valid and successful claim to have fled persecution or war receive a one-time payment of $2,375, of which $1,275 may be used for critical direct assistance such as rent, food, clothing and furnishings. That's it. If you are undocumented you get nothing.
As it turns out, variations of this hoax have been circulating on social media for more than seventeen years; originating with immigrant policy in Canada.
Alas, this is what passes for intelligentsia in the GOP nowadays. I suppose if you are a little bit slutty, being a little bit nutty gets you more clicks and a thumbs-up amongst the performative politics crowd.
If you're old like me you may recall Jack Webb's portrayal of detective Joe Friday in the television series Dragnet. His famous line: Just the Facts, ma'am made those episodes a cult favorite.
As a general rule I don't watch Sunday morning television; but I did last week. Not to watch Dragnet but to watch the Kristen Welker Meet The Press interview of former president Trump. While watching, it was Joe Friday's famous line that came to mind. I'm not making this up.
A link to the entire interview is included in this post and I've summarized a handful of Trump's distortions, hyperbole and disinformation for your erudition and entertainment.
Immigration and border control
I saw some statistics, and it said in 2019, there were no terrorists. They caught no terrorists. And now this year, it's a record number like they've never seen before.
While US Border Control agents are interdicting more individuals on the terrorist watchlist; as of July for fiscal 2023 the total is 216. For the fiscal year 2022 the count was 165. When Trump was president the number was at its highest - 280 during fiscal year 2019.
Millions of illegal immigrants are coming into our country, flooding our cities, flooding the countryside. I think the number is going to be 15 million people by the time you end this by the end of the year. I think the real number is going to be 15 million people.
Border Control has interdicted and turned away more than 2.5 million people during the 2023 fiscal year. For fiscal year 2022 apprehensions topped 2.7 million. This number is likely imperfect inasmuch as some migrants make multiple attempts to cross. And not every attempt is successfully interdicted and turned back. In any event, Trump's figure exceeds the total estimated number of undocumented individuals who have arrived here under the combined tenure of presidents Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden. That figure is estimated to now total 11.4 million.
Withdrawal From Afghanistan
We gave $85 billion worth of equipment to the Taliban.
No, we didn't. The DOD estimated that the Afghans had in their possession about $7.1 billion of US-funded military stuff when it fell to the Taliban. Since the war began in 2001 over those years of occupation the US spent an estimated $83 billion training and equipping the Afghan military and security forces. It is possible Trump was confused.
2020 Election Denial
If this were ever before a court, we would win so easy. There is so much evidence that the election was rigged.
Only about 80 miles of new barrier was constructed during Trump's term of office. This included 47 miles of primary
fencing and 33 miles of secondary fence. Mexico did not contribute a
single peso to build it. It is estimated that it would require an
investment of $25 billion for a Great Wall.
Record Deficits
We had the greatest economy in history, and then we got hit with COVID. And we had to keep this, this beautiful; thing going. We had to do things that were very severe. We had to let some money come out.
Things are not going right now very well for the consumer. Bacon is up five times. Food is up horribly worse than energy.
Yes, food has risen in price. In 2022 the price of bacon temporarily spiked about +30%. Nevertheless, the price of sliced bacon has risen by 2% since its peak under Trump.
Capitol Riot
These people on January 6, some of them never even went into the building and they're being given sentences of many years.
Ringleaders like Enrique Tarrio (Proud Boys) and Stewart Rhodes (Oath Keepers) did not enter the Capitol but received significant sentences as they were convicted of seditious conspiracy. Seditious conspiracy is serious-bad stuff.
Those who committed violent acts also received significant sentences. Others received the equivalent of a parking ticket for trespassing with everything else in-between. Details here.
I have a suspicion if I and my posse dressed-up in ballistic kit and assaulted the Door County Government Center, breaking-down doors and smashing windows, followed by attacking responding sheriff deputies with bear spray, axe handles and pike poles we'd be shot dead on the spot. Any survivors would be chilling-out in prison following a swift trial by jury. My CC instructor had sage advice: If someone hosts a riot - run the opposite direction.
Murdering Infants
The radical people on this are really the Democrats that say after five months, six months, seven months, eight months, nine months and even after birth, you are allowed to terminate the baby. You have a New York or California governor who said after the baby is born, you will make a determination, and if you want, you will kill that baby.
It's hard to unpack this; however some Democrats do support broad access to abortion without regard to gestational age. The bottom line is that only one percent of all abortions are performed after twenty-one weeks. Infanticide is a crime and Trump is untruthful. Either way, if the GOP is convinced that this subject is the path to winning a general election; I say, Bon Chance!
Russia's Ukraine War
They don't report about the war anymore. You don't find much reporting. That means that Ukraine's losing. OK? I see very little reporting from NBC, your network. I see very little reporting from NBC, ABC, from CBS, from anyone about the war.
Nonsense. As a matter of fact it is difficult to avoid a fire hose of daily news about Russian aggression against Ukraine. If you Google: "volume of coverage of Ukraine war 2023" you will get about 16,600,000 results in .43 seconds.
Conclusion
In the interests of keeping these posts digestible that's just ten items. My personal fave is the bacon. Who knew? Feel free to fact-check these and other tidbits from the full interview. I have to say that having watched Welker's inaugural interview my initial impression was that she failed. The interview came across as inadequate.
Upon further reflection over the past week I've modified my conclusion. Arguably, is there any need to interview Trump? What new enlightenment and illumination would be revealed? Quite predictably any news outlet will record a mix of grievances about how unfairly he is being treated, curious absurdities and misinformation, lame equivocations and outright falsities. Seriously, any effort to fact-check him live is akin to nailing jello to the wall. This is how Donald Trump rolls.
Candidly, since he lost the election I've sorta missed the kooky Trumpian word salad of sophistry and jive. If he wins reelection I suppose I'll be immoderately entertained. In the White House spotlight possibly even over-served. And there will be fresh subject matter to talk about here on a regular basis.
Further evidence that a bad deal is better than a good lawsuit any day of the week.
Predictably, the lawyers for both sides hadto
weigh the present value of $787.5 million in hand against the prospect
of a bigger number 3 to 5 years down the road. And after navigating the appeals and
delays.
Jury trials are always risky, especially in the midst of all the disinformation, delusion, and division. Smart decision.
Oooh. It is far from over too. Dominion is suing Newsmax and OAN, along with the MyPillow guy, Mike Lindell, Overstock.com founder Patrick Byrne, Rudy Giuliani, and Sidney Powell.
And
Smartmatic still has a multi-billion dollar suit pending against Fox
News. Dominion's litigation exposed some of the misconduct and damage
caused by Fox's disinformation campaign, the company said yesterday. Smartmatic will expose the rest.
Stay-tuned. The Big Lie is the gift that keeps on giving.....
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