Moving The Goal Posts

Throughout his political career Donald Trump has often articulated a disdain for open-ended military conflicts.  You know; Forever Wars.    

He has often cited the trillions of dollars spent in Iraq and Afghanistan suggesting the US received nothing in return.  As an America First Populist he has argued that these resources are better spent on domestic priorities.  Both he and his followers have frequently blamed warmongering globalists, neocons, military leadership and a shadowy Deep State for dragging the country into unnecessary conflicts.  And he has been consistent in deriding the notion of nation-building.  

I cannot argue any of the foregoing as there is truth to be found in all of it; particularly the costs in lives, both military and civilian.  The purpose of this post is nothing more than to note, as an outside observer, the shifting rationales cascading in the wake of Operation Epic Fury. 

Following the January 2020 drone strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani Trump claimed the action was necessary to head-off imminent and sinister attacks on US diplomats and service members. Pressed by Congress the administration later moved the goal posts and in a formal memo to Congress, deleted any reference to an imminent claim, instead justifying the strike as a response to past attacks and to deter future aggression. 

In 2025 President Trump launched Operation Midnight Hammer striking Iranian nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow.  The president announced the facilities were obliterated, effectively ending Iran's nuclear ambitions.  In short order, and in direct contradiction of earlier claims, the administration moved the goal posts claiming Iran was rebuilding the same facilities as a rationale for the recent escalation of hostilities.

Then the goal posts were planted on Iran's ballistic missile program.  The rationale was the Iran was developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking our homeland soon. 

Defense Secretary Hegseth moved the goal posts arguing that Iran's conventional missiles and drones were a shield protecting their nuclear ambitions thus requiring the US to first dismantle Iran's conventional military.

Secretary of State Rubio suggested that the recent wave of attacks were preemptive in nature arguing that the US struck Iran because it knew Israel was planning an attack; consequently, the US had to strike first to neutralize Iran's capacity to attack our middle eastern bases.  Goal posts moved, again. 

Ironically the most inconsistent is the regime change rationale requiring moving the goal posts in both end zones.  Trump himself appealed to the Iranian people to take control of your government as he cheered the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as a turning point.  Simultaneously, Defense Secretary Hegseth stated that the operations are not a so-called regime change war, framing it instead as a narrow mission to destroy specific Iranian military assets.  

Trump Says Germany is Helping With Iran Strikes

Between you and me, and hopefully within a relatively short passage of time, the administration will settle on some sort of rationale.  The goal posts may look something like this:  With insufficient international and weakening domestic support, military losses, rising oil prices, market volatility, insufficient evidence of any Iranian opposition capacity for overthrowing the current theocracy and a general lack of progress towards whatever rationale the administration eventually settles-on, it will be TACO time. The President will declare a win and victoriously announce we've done all that is possible for freedom-loving Iranians and that it is now time to move-on leaving them to pick-up the pieces.

I happen to believe regime change is overreach.  For the sake of Americans who wear a uniform in service to this country and civilians caught in the crossfire I pray for sooner; rather than longer. 

EDIT to add one hour following publication:

Attacks have intensified, with Iranian drone and missile strikes heading towards the Arab Gulf states. Many of these states rely on costly U.S. interceptors, and with stockpiles dwindling, energy infrastructure could become exposed.

The End of Venezuela?

Geopolitical strategist, Peter Zeihan, posted this yesterday morning. 

 

United States forces have captured the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, in the capital of Caracas.  Peter suggests that this event marks the beginning of the disintegration of what is left of the country... 

 

 

I got all sorta questions.

 

If you watched Telemundo last night - Venezuelans were celebrating.  They appeared ecstatic that Maduro is gone.  How could that possibly mean the beginning of the end?   If Peter believes Venezuela was already a dead state and where civilization is going to disintegrate, then wouldn't this action be a positive one as it provides Venezuelans an opportunity to turn things around?  It might be more like the beginning of Venezuela as a functional state.  

 

The military operation was nothing less than a spectacular tactical success.  Yet, what is the strategy to follow?  Is there a plan, some sort of architecture to manage an orderly transition?​  Or will this be a nation building mission with a vague and nebulous end result?  

 

Venezuela could install opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado; whom Maduro didn't allow to take office and Trump has also dismissed out of hand. 

 

It will be interesting to see where things are in one month, three month and six month intervals. 

 

And ask yourself this.  What gives the United States the authority to attack another country and remove their leadership?  

 

Who is next?

 

Mexico or Greenland? 

 

You Read It Here First

 

Yup, sometimes the king of bad predictions finds a truffle.  I wasn't wrong after-all.

You read it here first

I suppose we'll have to see what comes on Sunday, Monday and thereafter. 

 

They stole our oil, and we'll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries.

- Donald J. Trump  

Intentions

Sniff, sniff.  Do you smell what I smell?  

Yup. 

Profits.  

Venezuela is teetering at the brink and there is money to be made.

The first whiff of this has been what's going on for quite some time in the markets with Venezuelan bonds.  Prices of Venezuelan debt securities; including bonds that have been in default since 2017 have doubled in price since the start of the year.  Because they're garbage that's not saying much, yet Wall Street is betting that the Trump administration may be successful in ousting Nicolás Maduro and replacing his government with one likely headed by - drum roll please - opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Machado.  If successful, this could possibly right the Venezuelan economic ship, lead to debt restructuring and a big payout to bond speculators.

The second whiff is that this is more about oil and little to do with drug smuggling.  All of this business of targeting purported narco terrorist drug running boats like a video game is another Trumpian bright shiny object.  Both a distraction and mechanism to apply pressure on Maduro.  Evidence of this you ask?  First-off, fentanyl is made with precursors from China and having been manufactured in Mexico comes to America by land borders; namely Mexico.  Secondly, cocaine comes from Columbia, Peru and Bolivia as a consequence of coca leaves being grown in Andean nations.  Venezuela has little to do with either fentanyl or cocaine.  And if the Navy interdicted and boarded the boats, summarily executed everyone on board and then sank the boats, bodies and cargo the net result is unchanged.  The hi-tech, standoff nature of these strikes doesn't reduce the horror of the policy.  

It is wrong.

The third whiff is that Donald Trump doesn't want to be bothered by many things including affordability issues for working families and cares little about the drug trade.  Evidence of the latter is his absolute pardon of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández.  You know, the guy tried in an American court and sentenced last year to 45 years in U.S. prison for helping drug traffickers to safely move hundreds of tons of cocaine north through his country to the U.S.  Yes, that guy, the Cocaine Kingpin and wing man to the Sinaloa Cartel's leader Joaquín Guzmán Loera, alias 'El Chapo'.  Consider what my Libertarian survivors at the Cato Institute have to say on the subject.

I'm not particularly fond of conspiracy theories but much of this isn't passing the smell test.  What I know for sure is that Donald Trump has spent a lifetime running various hustles, grifts and scams; and the position of the Office of the President is a once in a lifetime opportunity to enrich himself and his family.  Consequently, a pardon to anyone may result from millions upon tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars washed by means of untraceable Trump Meme Coin, bond profits as a result of regime change and future oil revenues as the cherry on top.  

Winning the drug war and building Latin American democracies have nothing to do with it.  Our government has a long and sordid history of failing at both.

To be fair, I also have a sketchy record of predictions; nevertheless, Latin American leaders such as Columbia's President Gustavo Petro suggest that - Oil is at the heart of the matter.  And Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves.

Data shows estimates of proven oil reserves for 2025  

Source: Oil & Gas Journal

Moreover, Trump's candidness is usually a clear insight into his intentions.  In September of 2016 nominee Donald Trump said repeatedly the United States should take Iraq's oil as the spoils of war.  

At a 2023 political rally Donald Trump lamented in a speech that his first administration had been close to 'taking over' Venezuela for its oil reserves.  Venezuela. How about we're buying oil from Venezuela?  When I left, Venezuela was ready to collapse.  We would have taken it over.  We would have gotten all that oil.  It would have been right next door.    

Trump's administration has previously used sanctions on the Venezuelan state oil company -  Petróleos de Venezuela - (PDVSA) as a tool to apply pressure, at times revoking or reissuing licenses for U.S. companies like Chevron to operate there.  Naturally, internal political instability, mismanagement, international sanctions along with the built-in inefficiencies of a state-run enterprise in a socialist country has resulted in wide-reaching problems requiring complex arrangements with foreign firms like Chevron to operate joint ventures under restrictions imposed by both Venezuela and the U.S.  

Notably, U.S. refiners are expertly-equipped to process Venezuela's heavy, sour crude and the country's location makes it a strategically valuable resource as with the passage of time our own domestic production will likely level-off.

And because I hold any number of energy producers as a direct shareholder, including Chevron, this tangent has caught my interest.  Besides, if Venezuela cannot someone has to do it. 

The Trump administration has officially framed its actions - including a military build-up that includes moving roughly fifteen percent of our Navy to the Gulf of Mexico - as an effort to stop drug trafficking and illegal migration from Venezuela.  This complex mix of national security concerns are likely superseded by the President's own comments and equally complex economic interests related to Wall Street and Venezuela's oil wealth.  

Seems to me that at first blush MAGA world seems to have embraced and endorsed regime change and the profits that will undoubtedly follow by means of military force; or at a minimum, the threat thereof.  

Who knew?

I'm willing to be wrong about all of this.  Time will tell.....