Buyer's Remorse?

If anyone had any doubts about the incompetence of President Trump and his administration the Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with Iran proves it.  Russia and the United States misunderstood the inability of military might alone to crush small nations like Ukraine and Iran.  Britain's King George learned that lesson 250 years ago; yet that historic parallel is apparently lost on Donald Trump.

There is no regime change, no obliteration of the Iranians' nuclear ambitions, no end to their support of terrorist proxies and no unconditional surrender.  Sure, the Strait of Hormuz may eventually reopen; which is a return to the status quo that existed on February 27 before Donald Trump made a unilateral decision to go to war.  While Iran suffered substantial losses they have emerged from a conflict with the world's most powerful military having learned they can close the Strait any time they choose; and force the world to bend to their will by means of economic extortion.

We gained nothing. 

Iran holds all of its enriched uranium and one solitary man set in motion a cascade of gravely destabilizing events that have had all manner of adverse consequences for global stability, security and the world economy.  All of this at a cost of thousands of lives, billions upon billions of dollars and diminished American prestige.  With global petroleum reserves nearly exhausted; Trump capitulated.

No matter how you spin it, Mr. Trump lost his own war.  

The final deal, if it comes, must hold every red line; no enrichment, full removal of the existing stockpile, verification with teeth, the Strait open and free, permanently.  

Redemption demands nothing less.

Let's Make a Deal

Ships of the world, start your engines.  Let the oil flow!

- Donald Trump 

Trump sought to break Iran's regime and for the present has to settle for reopening the Strait.   

As of the publication of this post at 2:30 PM, Monday nobody has seen the text of "The Deal" opening the Strait of Hormuz.  Perhaps this emerging agreement ends a costly war but it leaves Iran's leadership intact and its nuclear future unclear.  Nevertheless, this is good news.  I'll join the president in celebrating a resumption of the way the world was on February 27, the day before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.  Ending one of the biggest global supply disruptions in decades  is hardly a victory; but it is good news.  

Some immediate thoughts.

The market for oil and other critical products (fertilizer components come to mind) will remain tight for weeks and months while ships are repositioned, damaged infrastructure is assessed and repaired, depleted inventories are rebuilt, mines are removed, crew changes are made and navies, insurers and shipowners are convinced the channel is safe.  Even after traffic picks-up, another 50+ days are needed for oil to arrive in Asia and begin to be refined.  Supply chain relief  won't materialize  until late August and any meaningful normalization would only happen in September at the earliest.

Before this deal crude oil flows have recovered only slightly this month with roughly 10 ships transiting the strait  per day according the commodities and shipping data provider Kpler; a far cry from the normal prewar ship transits of 100+ daily.

Remember this; under Obama's JCPOA no soldiers or civilians were killed, no US bases attacked, no aircraft or ships were lost, no treasure was expended on a war and Iran's enriched uranium was turned over to the custody of the Russians.

Donald Trump unilaterally walked-away from that agreement and in the absence of a replacement Iran embarked on a frenzy of nuclear enrichment.  In 2025 Donald Trump claimed to have obliterated Iran's nuclear program.  And earlier this year unilaterally decided to go to war with Iran.  Consequently, American service members and Iranians were killed and wounded, US bases in the Middle East were targeted and attacked and $34 billion of our treasure expended.  Iran still possesses its enriched uranium, the regime is intact and their nuclear ambitions unresolved. 

Happy Birthday Mr. Trump.  Stay-tuned...

Who Wants To Make A Deal?

Last week a buddy and I were pondering the Iran war, the nuclear deal (or lack thereof) and was Iran cheating when Donald Trump exited from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018.  And for some strange reason a day later it occurred to me that Mr. Trump's situation is similar to that of the popular game show Let's Make a Deal that aired from 1963 to 1976.

If you're old like me you may recall that costumed audience members had to deal with fast-talking host Monty Hall in choosing what might be lurking behind up to three doors or curtains.  Was it a fabulous prize - like an automobile?  Or a lesser prize - called a Zonk?

Unexpectedly called-off yesterday, if nuclear talks resume in Pakistan sometime soon President Trump will be facing a similar conundrum mostly a consequence of his own making.  The President had previously characterized the JCPOA as "a horrible, one-sided deal."   And now he has the opportunity to make a new deal.  Will it be Door Number One, Two or Three?  But first, let's put to bed anything about cheating back in 2018.

Whether Iran was cheating at the time Trump withdrew from the JCPOA is debatable.  At the time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was monitoring sites on the ground and had confirmed that Iran was staying within the limits allowed for uranium enrichment and stockpile size.  Senior officials in the Trump administration, including Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, testified to Congress that Iran was in technical compliance with the agreement.  Consequently, the consensus among both international monitors and the US intelligence community was that Iran was not cheating.

That the agreement had flaws and shortcomings is not debatable. Everyone knew that; including the Iranians.  Trump's primary argument for withdrawal wasn't that Iran was breaking any rules but that  the agreement itself was fatally flawed including a sunset provision that would allow Iran to pursue enrichment activities after the passage of fifteen years and that the deal did not address Iran's ballistic missile program.

So Trump tore-up the agreement and walked away.

And in the absence of a replacement agreement Iran set in motion an enrichment spree and expansion of their ballistic missile program leaving them closer to a bomb than ever before.  Today, the IAEA tells us Iran likely has a total of 11 tons of uranium at various enrichment levels.  With further purification that is sufficient to build up to 10 to 11 nuclear warheads.  All of this happened in the open and without an inning of cheating.

It is noteworthy to remember that Iran had previously lived up to its pledge under the JCPOA to ship to Russia 12.5 tons of its overall stockpile of enriched uranium.  After which, Iran's weapons industry didn't have sufficient material to build even a single bomb. 

The actions of president Trump have had all manner of consequences; intended and otherwise.  Going back to 2018, ask yourself, was the original deal an OK deal?  Was abrogating it a better deal?  And who owns the results?  

From 2021 to 2025 the Biden administration was unsuccessful in negotiating new limits.  And throughout the negotiations Iran kept enriching and expanding its cache of enriched uranium.

Then, in June of last year, Trump bombed Iran's enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordo including underground storage tunnels and facilities at Isfahan.  He famously declared to the world that Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated."   

But probably not.  

In very short order, Operation Epic Fury was launched in late February of this year.  Two months later the Straits of Hormuz are blockaded and effectively closed and presently the US and Iran have entered a period of tentative diplomacy.  President Trump has previously dispatched Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan; and until yesterday planned to send real estate developers and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad to conduct indirect talks presumably to secure a replacement nuclear agreement. 

A fragile ceasefire has been extended.  The president tells us that the military operation has decimated Iran's industrial base, ballistic missile production, drone manufacturing and sunk the navy.

President Trump's decision to unilaterally go to war with Iran without consulting Congress, the American people or (excepting for Israel) any of our global allies; set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.

Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has explicitly ruled-out direct talks with Witkoff and Kushner leaving Pakistan serving as an intermediary shuttling messages between the US and Iran. 

The administration is wise to seek an agreement that permanently eliminates any path to nuclear weapons, including restrictions on ballistic missiles and a cessation of support for Hezbollah and Hamas.

Intelligence reports suggest Iran still has its stockpile of highly-enriched uranium.  The president has to come up with a plan for that and Iran has to agree to it.  

Iran has signaled an openness to discussing nuclear concessions contingent-upon sanctions relief, reparations and a formal end to hostilities.  The missile program appears to be a non-starter.  

I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office inasmuch as a rushed-deal (to end the war) has a high probability of being a sloppy deal.  I do not think that Trump has the attention to detail or the patience for arduous negotiations that would lead to a real deal.  I have little faith in Trump getting this right.  I think he wants to save face.  He wants to say his deal is better than Obama's.  He wants to get the heck out of this morass as soon as he can; slapdash deal notwithstanding.  Furthermore, with a decapitation of Iranian leadership and wholesale destruction of Iran's economic base what are the implications for a civil war and expansion of unrest in the Middle East?  Would you agree the situation is disordered and chaotic?

And, of course, the Strait remains effectively closed leaving global supply chains seriously messed-up with all sorta unintended consequences.  So, I'm still waiting on President Trump to improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  Along with making the world a safer place.

I sure hope he gets this right....

 

The Big Lift

As of last evening a long-awaited ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is finally underway.  An end to the conflict is still up in the air with all of the obstacles to be found in the remaining 20 points in the Trump plan to end the war in Gaza.

I've actually read the plan and found particularly-detailed coverage in the Times of Israel (linked below).  It's a solid proposal and there's not much to it to take exception-to.  It will be a heavy lift and it is in the world's enlightened self interest that president Trump is successful. As they say - the devil is in the details - and there will be ample opportunity to debate specifics in the months and years to come.

If Trump pulls-it-off maybe he'll earn that elusive Nobel Peace Prize he so earnestly covets.  If he succeeds he deserves it.  Time will tell. 

Here are the 21 points as reported in the media summarizing Trump’s “21-point peace plan” for Gaza / the Israel-Hamas war:

Source: The Times of Israel (paraphrased) The Times of Israel

1. Gaza will be a de-radicalized, terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.

2. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of its people.

3. If Israel and Hamas accept the proposal, the war will immediately end: Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) halt operations and gradually withdraw from the Strip.

4. Within 48 hours of Israel publicly accepting the deal, all living and deceased hostages will be returned.

5. After hostages are returned, Israel will free several hundred Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences, over 1,000 Gazans arrested since the war began, plus return bodies of Palestinians.

6. Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence will be granted amnesty; those who wish to leave Gaza will be given safe passage to receiving countries.

7. After agreement, aid to Gaza will surge—at least at levels from earlier benchmark deals (e.g. 600 aid trucks/day) plus rehabilitation of critical infrastructure.

8. Aid will be distributed without interference from either Israel or Hamas, via the UN, Red Crescent, and other international organizations not tied to either party.

9. Gaza will be administered by a temporary transitional government of Palestinian technocrats, supervised by a new international body (established by the US in consultation with Arab and European partners).

10. An economic plan will be created to rebuild Gaza, using experts with experience in modern Middle Eastern cities, and existing investment plans.

11. A special economic zone will be established, with reduced tariffs and preferential access to participating countries.

12. No one will be forced to leave Gaza; those who choose to leave may return. Gazans will be encouraged to remain and build a better future there.

13. Hamas will have no role whatsoever in Gaza’s governance; all offensive military infrastructure (e.g. tunnels) must be destroyed.

14. Regional partners will guarantee security: ensure that Hamas and other factions comply, and Gaza stops posing threats.

15. The US will work with Arab/international partners to form a temporary international stabilization force (ISF) to deploy in Gaza immediately, oversee security, and train Palestinian police.

16. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza; the IDF will gradually hand over territory as security forces assume control.

17. If Hamas delays or rejects the proposal, its provisions will still be applied in “terror-free” areas: the IDF will hand them over to the international stabilization force.

18. Israel agrees not to carry out future strikes in Qatar; the US and international community acknowledge Doha’s mediating role in the Gaza crisis.

19. A process will be established to de-radicalize the population, including interfaith dialogue to change mindsets and narratives in both Israel and Gaza.

20. Once Gaza redevelopment advances and the Palestinian Authority’s reform program is completed, conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood (recognizing it as the aspiration of the Palestinian people).

21. The US will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful coexistence.

---

Caveats and observations:

• The plan is often referred to as a 20-point plan in several media outlets, but in the version leaked / reported by The Times of Israel it includes 21 items (the last being the U.S. dialogue to set a political horizon).

• Many of the points are broad commitments rather than detailed operational mechanisms; key issues (e.g. timing, enforcement, funding, oversight) remain under negotiation.

• Points like “if Hamas delays or rejects, proceed in terror-free areas” imply partial implementation even without full consensus.

• The plan envisions sidelining Hamas entirely from governance in Gaza, replacing it with technocratic administration under international supervision.

• The pathway to Palestinian statehood is conditional and not immediate; it depends on reforms, redevelopment, and progress on Gaza.