BDA

Saturday evening President Trump claimed that United States strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had been completely and totally obliterated.   

Bomb damage assessment (BDA) is the process of assessing damage inflicted on a target following aerial bombing or following a strike from a stand-off weapon; this continues.

Clearly the sites Iran had been using to produce highly enriched uranium have been seriously damaged as a consequence of US bombing.  The question on everyone's minds is whether Tehran's program had been decapitated or simply pushed into smaller, secretive scattered facilities.  In the run up to the latest hostilities it was assumed that most, if not all, of Iran's cache of 60% enriched uranium was stashed at the bombed locations.    

There are plenty of analysts who believe Iran moved much of its enriched uranium—especially its 408 kg (~900 lb) stockpile enriched up to 60%—to undisclosed or underground locations before the strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. 

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access is now severely restricted following the strikes.  Inspectors have no immediate access to key sites and the IAEA is presently unable to conduct comprehensive assessments to confirm damage to centrifuges and other production technology, confirm damage to actual uranium, or if it has been removed. 

The strikes appear to have slowed Iran’s nuclear program temporarily, but not destroyed it. Iran likely relocated both enriched uranium and centrifuge assets beforehand. Without full IAEA access, the true scope of Iran’s enriched stockpile and hidden capabilities remains unclear. Analysts estimate Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for 6–10 bombs within weeks given its current enriched stock and capacity.  Considering that Iran has patiently proclaimed Death To America for fifty years; proliferation risks persist.

I could be wrong, but without further information, verification and diplomacy I'm unconvinced President Trump has made your and my world a safer place.  And, jessus, this second rodeo has so many bright shiny objects it's enough to make the heads of us great unwashed spin faster than an enrichment centrifuge.  

Note: In the early-mid 1990s The Missus and I were on a western road trip and found ourselves slightly lost while looking for Knob Noster State Park. Stumbling-upon the guard gate to Whiteman Air Force Base we asked for directions, got turned around and set straight for the campground. I actually spotted a B-2 Spirit bomber on that drive to the state park.  Low on the horizon it was possible the aircraft was making an approach for landing.  Distinctive in that it could be seen in thin profile during a turn; vanishing from sight on the level.  It is still amazing to me these messengers of death and destruction can depart from a sleepy Missouri location, travel to the other side of the world, wreak havoc and return home in the space of a four shift workday.  

Photo Credit - Air and Space Forces Magazine

 

Speaking Truth To Power

This, on student protests—Salman Rushdie in a May 19 interview with Bild, a German tabloid:

Right now, [one] has to be distressed by what is happening in Gaza because of the quantity of innocent death. I would just like some of the protests to mention Hamas, because that’s where this started. 

 

And Hamas is a terrorist organization, and it’s very strange for young, progressive student politics to kind of support a fascist terrorist group. They’re talking about “free Palestine,” and I mean, I’m somebody who has argued for a Palestinian state for most of my life—I mean, since the 1980s, probably. 

 

Right now, if there was a Palestinian state, it would be run by Hamas, and that would make it a Taliban-like state, and it would be a client state of Iran. And is that what the progressive movements of the Western left wish to create? To have another Taliban, another ayatollah-like state in the Middle East, right next to Israel? 

 

So I feel that there’s not a lot of deep thought happening. There’s an emotional reaction to the death in Gaza, and that’s absolutely right. But when it slides over towards antisemitism, and sometimes to actual support of Hamas, then it’s very problematic.

 

Learn more here.

Start Your Weekend

Jon Stewart tackles the media's obsession with Trump's hush money trial, while the GOP freaks out over Biden's new energy efficiency standards and a name change for the Boy Scouts. Meanwhile, Biden slows the flow of weapons to Israel, and after Trump shames Jewish Biden supporters, the Best F**kin' News Team stops by to give Jon a guilt trip.

Have a terrific weekend people.....

Where Does The Money Go?

There has been a considerable amount of talk of late about military aid to Israel and Ukraine.   To suggest it must be either one or the other is a false dilemma fallacy.  For reasons that I will get to in the conclusion of this post I believe it can and should be both.  If you want to condition it on a more muscular approach to securing our southern border I'm OK with that too.  Horsetrading is how you govern.  As you read this you will get the impression I'm comfortable with security; both here and abroad.

Today I want to dispel some of the misinformation I catch from media soundbites and from the general cesspool of deceptions planted on social media by Russian and Communist Red Chinese trolls specifically as it relates to aid to Ukraine.

Congress has appropriated $113.3 billion since February of 2022 to assist Ukraine in its fight against Russia's unprovoked invasion.  This money has been provided in four tranches known as supplementals.  

To better understand  the purpose of the support these funds are divided among nine buckets including:  Economic support, weapons back-fill, Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, Defense Department accounts, humanitarian and civil society assistance, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), other non-defense efforts, oversight and other defense efforts.

From a defense perspective, the supplemental appropriations allow for the rapid transfer of equipment and supplies from Department Of Defense (DOD) stockpiles to Ukrainian forces under something called the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA).  This is an executive power granted by congress in 1961 to the commander in chief.

Some have mischaracterized US support to Ukraine as a blank check.  The political spin is to leave an undiscerning individual with the impression we are shipping pallets of cash currency to a country at war.  The truth is that the vast majority of the money is actually spent here at home for production contracts with US companies manufacturing ammunition, weapons and equipment to back-fill our own stocks.

Almost all of the military aid sent to Ukraine is older cold war weapons systems and materiel.  This stuff represents a sunk cost budgeted under prior defense authorizations dating back as far as the 1970s.  There is no small amount irony in the knowledge that stuff our military purchased for an expected European land war with the Soviets is being given to Ukrainians to defend against Russians.  It also happens to save the US taxpayer the cost and trouble of eventual disposal.

Naturally, older inventory sent to Ukraine has to be replaced.  It is important to note that the replacement of US weapons stocks will include the latest version of war fighting technology and will stimulate the development of newer, necessary technologies.  Why is this important?  The nature of warfare has changed and if expensive systems such as HIMARS can be electronically jammed, then we'd be well-served to know that now and build replacements that cannot be compromised. 

Before Ukraine who knew we had the capability to shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles with the Patriot system?  Or how to deal with the broad deployment of drones on the battlefield - something US forces have not had to face.  This is real-time testing of American military equipment against the best Russia has to offer. This affords us an opportunity to build better systems to defend against a sophisticated adversary.  Peace through strength.

And yes, helping Ukraine defend itself against an unprovoked Russian invasion is money well-spent because Russia will not stop at Ukraine.  Putin has stated that his next objective after Ukraine will be Poland and the Baltic states.  Sweden and Finland have joined NATO as they know they are targets of Russian expansionism.  And China would see our non-support of Ukraine as an open invitation to invade Taiwan.  But I digress.

Getting back to where the money is going, about $69 billion of the $113 billion (60 percent) will be spent in the United states, benefiting our armed forces and US industry. 

In conclusion, I do not support Ukraine because it is better for our military preparedness, the economy or as a shareholder.  To be absolutely clear, we should never forget the human cost of war.  And this disastrous conflict wasn't started by the west or Ukraine.  Russia picked this fight and if Russia is allowed to succeed the US may pay for it many times over, in treasure and in lives.  

I believe it is proper to be thoughtful and judicious about military and humanitarian aid to others.  This is not warmongering jingoism.  Consider this:  Russia and Hamas are the nexus of aggression and disinformation along with their Iranian patrons.  You can bet that China and North Korea are paying close attention.  Countries such as Ukraine and Israel are worthy of our material support to defend themselves from aggressors bent-upon their annihilation.

The moral depravity of the pro-Hamas left and the pro-Putin right have made our world an exceedingly dangerous place.  Helping Israel and Ukraine stand up to the bad guys is doing the right thing.  

Charts: American Enterprise Institute

Evil Personified

Russia’s bloody and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has strategically made use of rape, abductions, torture and the targeting of civilians.  These are war crimes and evil personified.

Hamas’ bloody and unprovoked attack on Israel has been rife with rape, abductions and the slaying of civilians; including children.  All war crimes and stunningly evil.

 

Iran is a twisted degenerate theocracy; a barbaric defilement of one of the religions of Abraham.

 

Russia, Iran and Hamas are complicit. 

 

The war in Ukraine has seen Russia become reliant on Israel’s most serious rival in the Middle East. Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles have become vital to Moscow’s war efforts due to their effectiveness and affordability. Additionally, Tehran is seeking billions of dollars of Russian military goods in exchange for its support, which includes allowing Moscow to create its own versions of Iranian attack UAVs.

 

There are Russian remarks directed at Zelensky, who is Jewish. Last month, Putin himself said Western Masters put a person at the head of modern Ukraine an ethnic Jew, with Jewish roots, with Jewish origins to help glorify Nazism.  This has been a tiring and oft-repeated trope.

All the while the war in Ukraine has drawn Russia closer to Iran, Israel’s most powerful regional rival and a key backer of Hamas.  It is the attacks by Russia and Hamas that are harrowing echoes of Nazi massacres. 

 

Meanwhile, China is watching and waiting to see how things play out for those who ‘went first’. And BTW - North Korea’s role in this makes the circle complete. 

 

Yup, Russia, Iran, China, North Korea.

 

I know evil and I know bad guys and their apologists when I see them.   Including the moral depravity of the pro Hamas left and the pro Putin cheerleaders of the right. They disgust me. Their machinations have caused the world to become a more dangerous place.

 

How hard is it to condemn and stand-up to the murder of civilian noncombatants?