Crime Plunges

Marking the largest single-year drop on record and possibly the lowest murder rate since 1900, murders in major US urban centers  plummeted by over 20% last year.

Crimes in nearly all categories fell with 36% fewer robberies, 29% fewer carjackings and 25% fewer homicides compared to 2019.  

27 out of 35 cities surveyed saw declines in homicides chalking-up a year over year 20% decline nationwide compared to 2024.   At -60% Baltimore was witness to the largest drop while Los Angeles saw a 39% drop. 

According to the Council on Criminal Justice, burglaries fell by 45% and larceny by 20% compared to 2019. Despite remaining higher than 2019 levels, motor vehicle thefts fell by 27% last year compared to 2024.

The extent to which President Trump's policies are responsible is the subject of considerable debate between the administration and independent researchers.

The White House and Department of Justice (DOJ) cite several factors including the deployment of federal resources and army national guard personnel to major cities - specifically targeting Democrat-led Blue Cities characterized as war zones.  Surging ICE operations which targeted and removed thousands of criminal aliens from US streets.  And lastly encouraging stricter federal prosecutions and promoting a positive image of law enforcement to boost morale among rank and file police and recruitment.

In contrast, criminologists and organizations such as the Council on Criminal Justice and the Vera Institute argue that the 2025 drop is a continuation of a "virtuous cycle" that began in 2023.   Significant is as the social, economic, and psychological stressors of the COVID-19 pandemic receded, crime rates naturally began to revert to pre-2020 levels.  Experts credit the 2021 American Rescue Plan and the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which funded community violence intervention programs that reached peak effectiveness in 2024–2025.  Finally, policy changes typically take more than a few months to manifest in national statistics. Critics argue that Trump's 2025 cuts to DOJ grants for community safety may actually risk reversing these gains in 2026.  

On one hand factors contributing to this statistical avalanche include technology advances leading to precision policing and a reduction in court backlogs.  On the other hand, community-based programs implementing violence interrupters and even a generational shift in the data suggesting Gen Z committing fewer violent crimes are responsible.  

While the Trump administration's aggressive enforcement coincided with the record-breaking drop, the decline was already well underway by 2024. Most analysts believe the 2025 figures are too complex to parse and I'm disinterested in burning valuable bandwidth on someone's confirmation bias, selective cherry-picking or group-think.

Either way you slice it, crime in many cities has been falling since former President Biden's final two years in office.  The decline witnessed last year is a sharp reversal of the outlier pandemic-era surge that commenced during Trump's first term.   

For most of the last year I've been witness to more than enough reality television drama recently punctuated by the slaying of a couple of my countrymen; a singularly Trumpian Kent State moment. These deaths have had a profound impact upon my psyche; mostly a consequence of a small handful of acquaintances reveling and basking in the reflected glory of the slaying of Americans - for all the world to see on social media.  Absorb that readers; and allow it to register.  I don't care if it is Renee Good , Alex Pretti or Charlie Kirk; don't behave like a bloodthirsty damn ghoul.  Rejoicing in the gunning-down of other Americans reflects poorly.  

Drama-aside, there hasn't been much if any permanent progress on anything that will improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life. The budget and deficit have exploded to record levels and tariffs have increased the cost of living on all Americans. Nevertheless, this news from the crime blotter might just be evidence of our immediate world becoming a safer place.  Considering most everyone around here leave their keys in their vehicles I'm gonna embrace the drop.  Time will tell if it is lasting.  I'm a patient sort.....

Datapoint

I didn't see this coming; consequently, it caught me by surprise.  

Here we are, barely one month into the new year, and the Conference Board's long-running consumer confidence index fell 9.7 points from 94.2 in December.  This was a sharp drop with all five components of the index deteriorating making it one of the largest monthly drops in four years and placing American's confidence in the economy at the lowest it has been in a dozen years.  

click on image for a closer look

Popular sentiment about the economy is both a curious and fickle phenomenon.  Over the last couple of years consumer confidence did not necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the US economy.  This drop is an assessment of survey respondents' current state of economic affairs and their expectations for the future.  Notably, the index is now below the level it sank during the pandemic when unemployment was approaching 15%.

Asked about jobs the share of consumers who shared that jobs are plentiful fell to 23.9% from 27.5% in December.  Similarly, 13.9% expected more jobs to be available in the next six months compared with 17.4% in December. 

Economists suggest that these data point are the latest evidence of American's perceptions of a weaker labor market than the actual numbers may imply.  It this a wariness of potential impacts from artificial intelligence?

Again, economists over at the Conference Board suggest that respondent's answers to the survey continues to trend pessimistic with elevated concerns over food and grocery prices, health insurance, utilities, future business conditions, income prospects and trade war impacts.

Despite robust GDP growth and an overall low unemployment rate U.S. consumers are pessimistic about the general economic outlook.

Go figure. 

Shooting The Messenger

It’s worth noting that economic numbers get revised all day long.  These numbers are constructed by hundreds of people. They're finalized by about 40 bean counters. These 40 people are very professional people who have served under Republicans and Democrats.

The commissioner does not see these numbers until the Wednesday prior to the release on Friday. By that time, the numbers are completely set into the IT system. They have been programmed. They are simply reported to the commissioner, so the commissioner can on Thursday brief the president's economic team.

The commissioner doesn't have any hand or any influence or any way of even knowing the data until they're completely done. That's true of the unemployment rate. That's true of the jobs numbers.

Nevertheless, because this report didn’t conform with Trump’s narrative he killed the messenger. 

Intentionally, or not, if you want to instill a distrust in economic stats this is the playbook. 

Of course, we’ve all been to this rodeo before….

Laissez Les Bons Temps Rouler

Popular sentiment about the economy is both a curious and fickle phenomenon.  Over the last couple of years consumer confidence did not necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the US economy.  I've blogged about it from time to time as I've scratched my noggin over perceptions of what is real versus perceived.  As a recovering financial guy I periodically puzzled-over this disconnect.  Perhaps that is exactly the point - perceptions in and of themselves are naturally fickle.  Which is why they are nothing more than perceptions.  Don't over analyze it; what is perceived is frequently not founded in reality.

Now we learn that popular sentiment over the economy has flipped.  A majority of consumers (among Republicans anyway) now perceive that the good times are about to roll.

Last week, the New York Fed's monthly consumer survey revealed that an increasing number of us now share the expectation that our financial situation is likely to improve in the coming year.  Remarkably, this optimism has reached its highest level since the period of time immediately preceding the COVID shit show of 2020. 

This is further bolstered by the University of Michigan measure of US Consumer Sentiment indicating that it increased for the fifth consecutive month, the highest level since April.

Some may suggest this this is a consequence of the reelection of Donald Trump.  I am unconvinced as this has been percolating for the better part of 2024; but I'd not disregard the possibility of confirmation bias.  I am certain that the president-elect will take credit for the strong economy he will inherit. The only Trump Effect I can discern is found in reading the University of Michigan data.  Current conditions have been led by a surge in the purchasing of durable goods - a consequence of the perception that purchases of durables today would enable a buyer to avoid price increases in the future.  Which takes us to that nagging matter of inflation.

To be certain the economy remains healthy; the labor market is stable, consumer spending is robust and growth has been steady.  The core consumer price index (excludes volatile energy and food prices) has grown at an annual rate of 3.3% year-over-year; stubbornly remaining above the Fed's target rate of 2%.  

Domestic retailers are warning that proposed tariffs would result in higher prices to US consumers.  The president-elect himself has said that he can't guarantee anything when it comes to the impact of tariffs on Americans at the checkout.  This, along with immigration restrictions, may contribute to our ongoing inflation challenges.

So, stay-tuned.  None of this would be so consequential except that 70% of the US economy is consumer spending.  The remaining 30% is government spending, manufacturing and everything else.  So maybe sentiment counts for something after all.

Fact Checking

The European nations together have spent $100 billion, or maybe more than that, less than us.

- Donald Trump 

This is on the subject of Ukraine.  Donald Trump is either lying or confused (you pick) because he's got this turned-around.

The United States and Europeans spent roughly the the same amounts in the year immediately following Russia's unprovoked invasion and assault on their neighbor. 

European aid continued to grow in 2023 while aid from the US flatlined without GOP support. 

President Biden eventually secured a bipartisan aid package in April.

Four Years Ago

Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

Good question.  I suppose from a crime perspective I am. 

To be fair, I live in rural America, where there is some crime but not enough to stop me and my neighbors from leaving our keys in our cars.  Having said that, national figures concerning crime are universally available and quite measurable.

Four years ago in 2020 we were witness to the largest increase in the murder rate in the history of this country.  Things were not going well.  America was not great again.  Since then the murder rate has fallen each and every year.  The decline from 2022 to 2023 represents one of the largest declines in the murder rate in the history of our country.

With the exception of motor vehicle theft and shoplifting (which remain shockingly high) most of the remaining crimes covered in this analysis are either below or have returned to approximately 2019 levels.  Most notable are declines in drug offenses and residential burglary.

So, yeah.  As a nation we're safer and better off than we were four years ago.

Go Pack

There is a NFL Wild Card game tomorrow that you might not want to miss.

Sure, the Cowboys are seven-point favorites, while the over/under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored is 50.5 in the latest Packers v. Cowboys odds from SportsLine consensus.

Of course, there's no denying these numbers.....

 

My Kingdom for a Leader

Yesterday more than 3000 of my countrymen died of Covid.  Do you remember as recently as only several months ago when the daily death toll of 1000 lives was alarming? 

Let's think about this carnage in scalable terms.

This is the largest number of dead in a single day during this pandemic - and it is higher than the death toll in the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001.  For you older students of history the daily death toll alone now surpasses those killed in the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.

The total number of dead approaches 300,000. 

More than 947,000 workers filed new claims for state unemployment benefits last week. 

Foreclosures and evictions will reach record levels this holiday season. 

By the close of 2020 Donald Trump's economy will own the largest number of business bankruptcies in the entire history of the United States. 

Congress continues to dither on an economic relief package as the Trump economic damage continues to pile-up. 

Food lines soar as hunger reaches record levels in the wealthiest nation on earth. 

And in the midst of this hot mess the president hits the golf course daily and obsesses over crazy legal efforts to overturn a legitimate election that he lost fair and square. 

We are living in interesting times for sure......

 

My Kingdom for a Leader

As the economic damage continues to mount the COVID crisis is looking more and more like the Great Recession.   

I find it oddly puzzling that the Trump campaign has made the strategic decision to force-feed the public a daily feast of rioting and lawlessness.  I look around and what I see is that the vast majority of our countrymen do not riot, burn or take the law into their own hands and murder their brethren. My community is at peace and everyone is actually quite friendly.

This shrill pageantry of imagined violence doesn't do anything for me.  How about you?  There is growing evidence that Wisconsinites aren’t falling for it.  A Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday showed virtually no movement in voter attitudes toward mass protests.  

In my law-abiding world peaceful and civil society continues uninterrupted across virtually all of our great nation. 

I'd be willing to bet that most anyone reading this shares a similar perception of the real world.

We do not scare easily and it is as quiet as a tomb around these parts. 

If I were advising the Trump campaign I would suggest that if they wanted to gain some traction with voters who are not members of his base it would be helpful if they wouldn't insult anyone's intelligence.

And no amount of LOOK! SQUIRREL!! is going to distract the discerning voter from the real shit show - namely the mismanagement of the economy and pandemic - which is the purpose of this post and happens to be the 900 pound gorilla in the room.

Congratulations to the US for the stunning success in the international news cycle. Inasmuch as we lead the world in both total COVID cases and deaths the media has now chosen to ignore our placeholder status to focus on whether India or Brazil captures second place.  

6,500,000+ reported cases of COVID. Almost every day for the past six months more than 20,000 Americans have been diagnosed with the virus.

More than 194,000 people have died of the virus with hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of additional survivors crippled with disabling complications.

The death toll exceeds more than 1,000 of our countrymen each and every day.  

There are some that shrug-off the dead as immaterial.  They'll tell you that more than 6,000 Americans die of all causes every day anyway.  So what if there are a thousand more, give-or-take?

Can you imagine the outcry if more than 1000 people were killed by drunk drivers each and every day?  Or if more than 1000 children were slain in school shootings each and every day?  How about more than 1000 servicemen and women dying each and every day?  If rioting resulted in more than 1000 deaths every day Team Trump would be wetting their pants.

These deaths are not background noise - they are our countrymen.  Pro-life movement?  Crickets.

The job market is in absolute ruin. Initial (new) jobless claims this week came in at a stunning 884,000 (830,000 to 850,000 was forecast). And continuing jobless claims are likely to remain close to 13 million. Total ongoing unemployment claims in all programs remain close to 30 million - or nearly 20 percent of the current civilian labor force.   My own close circle of friends has been touched by this with all of those impacted by the permanent loss of their jobs.

2020 will likely witness more bankruptcies than in anyone’s lifetime. The magnitude of bankruptcies this year has already surpassed that of 2008 and it isn’t just big household names like Chesapeake Energy, Stein Mart, Lord and Taylor, Virgin Atlantic, Briggs and Stratton, JC Penney, Hertz, J.Crew or Neiman Marcus. 55% of businesses shuttered during the worst of the pandemic in March will never reopen. 

The economy so far has replaced less than half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April.  

And in the midst of this economic carnage the president tells us to be afraid.  

I guess I am supposed to be very afraid. 

Open your eyes to the looming avalanche of bankruptcies, evictions and homelessness.  Lives, fortune and potential lost forever.  That is actually worthy of concern.

Trump broke it. He owns it. 

*Data courtesy of Axios, Fox News, MarketWatch, Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Bankruptcy Institute and the Centers for Disease Control

My Kingdom for a Leader

​As of today there is this:

6,117,000 reported cases of COVID.  

The death toll exceeds more than 1,000 of our countrymen each and every day.

More than 179,000 people have died of the virus with hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of additional lives surviving and crippled by disabling complications. 

The national unemployment rate is 10.2% with 31.8 million people claiming jobless benefits. 

Do you hear that rumble in the distance? That is not a protest march or even rioters – that is a growing avalanche of business bankruptcies headed directly at us.

55% of businesses shuttered during the worst of the pandemic in March will never reopen. 

The economy so far has replaced only about 9 million of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention implemented a temporary eviction moratorium through the end of the year which – according to the Treasury Secretary – will delay (not prevent) as many of 40 million people being turned out on the street.     

About the rioting and destruction of property? The truth of the matter is that the vast majority of our countrymen do not riot, burn or take the law into their own hands and murder their brethren.  

Law-abiding, peaceful and civil society continues uninterrupted across virtually all of our great nation. 

The real shitstorm is the absence of leadership on the pandemic and the economy.  

 Everything else is: LOOK! SQUIRREL!!

 

*Data courtesy of Axios, Fox News, MarketWatch, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Centers for Disease Control   

ALICE

In the news there is this.

ALICE - an acronym for “Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed,” is defined as those households earning more than the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) but less than Wisconsin's basic cost of living. The report describes the basic cost of living and being employed in the modern economy the ALICE Threshold.  The old-school term for this was the Working Poor.

In Door County, 22 percent of all households fall within this threshold, while another 9 percent fall below the FPL.  One third of our countrymen.  For many of these families the cost of living may routinely exceed what they earn. And when funds run short - these households are forced to make difficult choices - such as deciding between child care, rent, filling a prescription or fixing a car. These short-term decisions have long-term consequences not only for these families but for our communities. The brutal reality is that these workers perform jobs that are critical to the functioning of our local economy.  

That statistic and others were reported in the state’s third ALICE report, released recently by United Way of Wisconsin in partnership with United for ALICE and local United Ways across the state, including United Way of Door County.

Those households are dispersed across the county. For example, 36 percent of the households in Brussels, 38 percent in Sturgeon Bay and 46 percent in Sister Bay fall below the ALICE Threshold.

A discouraging thought is that the measures in this report are from data collected in 2018 - pre-Covid and obviously before our previous robust economy fell into a deep recession.  If I had to hazard a guess the stats today would be frighteningly alarming.  Look no further than the avalanche of data that has revealed the extreme vulnerability of ginormous numbers of households that lived paycheck to paycheck and had no cushion to manage for the economic shock of of a shutdown.  Millions upon millions remain unemployed.  Our economy remains a train wreck and has yet to be back on track.  Work is more than a paycheck it is personal satisfaction and self-worth too. 

So, do the right thing and step-up to support your local businesses and lend a hand to those who could use a leg-up. And support your local United Way by volunteering, advocating and contributing.

My Kingdom for a Leader

 Last week President Trump had this to say….        

So we have the best testing in the world.  It could be the testing’s, frankly, overrated?  Maybe it is overrated.         

By the time I tapped-out this post last evening our country is coming-up on close to 1.7 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and by Trump’s low standards for convoluted logic this is largely because the U.S. has carried out more tests.  

Donald Trump is lying to us again.         

Nationally, roughly 146,000 people per day have been tested for coronavirus this month.  Don’t take my word for it – you can find the documentation here.  We currently are testing an average of 45 per 100,000 people per day.  Experts tell us that we have to ramp-up that testing to an average of 150 per 100,000 people per day.  It was done in Korea and Germany and the smaller death toll reflects that universal truth.       

With most states beginning to reopen plenty of people are going to be tempted to look at the data over the next week or so and will boast and gloat on their Face Book pages that Trump has conquered the virus.      

Consider a careful and reasoned analysis of the data.

Never forget that tests yield data and data is king - because in the near term the data will reflect the continuing lock-down of early May and late April.  This is a consequence of the lag time in the pandemic numbers.  Infected individuals don’t typically become symptomatic for roughly 5 to 7 days with the very worst of this disease materializing 2 to 3 weeks later.  There is a built-in lag before greater outbreaks of COVID-19 are obviously in your infected face.  The 'experts' with their hasty Face Book expert medical conclusions do so at great personal peril.  Party in the bars if it trips your trigger - but for the love of God and all that is holy please stay away from grandma. I digress.

Getting back to the beginning of this post it is important to recognize two things:       

• We still do not have mass testing.  Testing and contact tracing along with quarantining of the sick and exposed from the healthy population is key to anything close to a return to normalcy.         

• President Trump lies even when it is in his own best interests to tell the truth.  

Sure, it’s weird, but that’s the truth.           

On the latter point v. the former; if the president says to you that everyone who wants a test gets a test. That is a lie.         

Stop lying to me.       

Now.

Boom or Bomb?

I happen to be a baby boomer.  Baby boomers are that demographic cohort born between 1946 and 1964. We are called ‘boomers' because during this period of time, there was a statistically significant increase in the number of births.  Our parents were making babies – resulting in a boom or bulge in the broader, general population.  I am fond of this analogy - boomers are the pig moving through the python.

It should come as no surprise that I have boomer stuff on my mind.  First, I recently retired.  Second, I spent almost four decades counseling people on how to plan for a financially-secure retirement.

Using your imagination I'd like you to think about our world a decade from now.  

In 2019 the youngest of the baby boomers will turn 65.  Stated differently - all of the baby boomers will be age 65 and older.  This also means that for the first time people over 65 will comprise a whopping 20 percent of the population.  This has multiple implications. 

On our journey to 2029 about 10,000 boomers will turn 65 each day.  The growing ranks of retiring boomers is expected to have a direct impact on the number of available workers in the U.S. workforce.  As boomers retire, younger people will climb their career ladders to replace them.  This turnover in the labor force creates opportunity.

Because the Social Security program is primarily funded by payroll taxes assessed on wages there will be a shrinking number of workers contributing payroll taxes and an increasing number of retirees tapping their benefits.  This introduces an element of risk.  The good news is that we know about it and thus can (and should) plan for it.  Without a plan it could lead to a crisis.  Delay simply increases the risk and scale of potential crisis.  

Along those lines only 55% of my boomer cohort has some retirement savings.  And of those who have saved - 42% have less than $100,000 set-aside. As a consequence, roughly half of retired boomers will have to rely on Social Security as their principle source of retirement income.  That is scary.

Compounding this is most of us are living longer than our parent’s generation and certainly our grandparent’s generation.   That aside, boomers suffer higher rates of hypertension, higher cholesterol, obesity and diabetes.  These complexities are going to impact the cost of health care – likely increasing it.  Nevertheless, I smell opportunity - namely swelling jobs in the healthcare sector as boomers age.

You're probably thinking - Hey!  You're scaring me.  Now I'm not going to be able to get to sleep tonite with all of your scary population statistics rolling around in my head. 

Not at all gentle reader.  There is likely opportunity that can spring from crisis.  And a clever individual will embrace the opportunity not the crisis. 

As long as you have your imagination activated – visualize this:  One fifth of the nation telling you to get off their lawn.

Yote

click on the image for a closer look

 

Another cool coyote photo taken by the trail camera north of Silver Creek and not far from the western boundary.  If any of my hunting pals are reading this is the wildlife opening where the shitter is situated.

Anyway, it's a Moultrie A-25 photo taken on March 8th at 4:32 PM.  The lighting was just right with the pink sunset peeking thru in the background and the ethereal blues reflected off the snow.  Ma Nature was fiddling with the color spectrum at the time.

The statisticians here at The Platz tell me that The Law of Large Number and Averages suggest that if you take enough photos with enough trail cameras and repeat it enough times you stand a chance of snapping a really nice random photo from time-to-time.

Raising a toast to cameras that cost less than $100.

Cheers! 

A Troubling Statistic

Here’s an interesting factoid I studied yesterday.... 

One half of American households hold more debt than assets. That is correct - they have a negative net worth!  I don’t know about you but as a retired financial guy I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around this most basic of balance sheet statistics.  Holy moly - one freakn' half.  Stunning.  Who knew? 

The blue line (top 10% of the population) holds 73.2% of America’s wealth while the red line (bottom 50% of the population) holds -.5%.  If you look at the trend line the wealthy are wealthier than any time since before the Second World War. 




Sure, I know I've spent a career working in relatively rarified atmosphere as those with a negative net worth have little use for wealth management. I've always had a sense for these wealth inequalities lurking out there but hadn't paid attention to the scale.  My sanitized experience has left me a bit unprepared for what the implications of this might be.  Some economists have theorized that circumstances such as this constrain economic growth, restrict educational opportunity (which stunts potential wage growth) and may contribute to an increase in criminal behavior.  It certainly has policy implications from a governance and social perspective.

What I know for sure is that Henry Ford paid his workers a better than average wage – not out of kindness – but because he wanted the guys who worked in his factories to be able to purchase the automobiles manufactured by Ford Motor Company.  You would think Jeff Bezos would like that everyone had enough income and wealth to purchase all of the stuff sold thru Amazon, eh? 

Far be it from me to suggest that everything should be equal as income and wealth inequality has existed from the time income and wealth became measurable and important to commerce.  Naturally, some level of income inequality has to exist to incentivize innovation and entrepreneurism which leads to new products and services. 

Nevertheless, it would appear that this trend is not likely to reverse and may in-fact experience a widening gap.  Whether this will lead to social or political unrest is not known.  Time will tell.  If I had to hazard a guess - with the 2020 election looming on the horizon we’re likely to hear more about this subject in the months to come. 

With that in mind be an informed voter and learn more about this topic at the World Inequality Database.  This is an interactive database and you can build your own charts and graphs by means of checking the boxes to select specific key indicators.