What To See In The June Sky

Looking to take a walk down memory lane?  

Indulge a childhood memory?

Indulge in wishful thing?

Consider making a wish-upon a star after the sun goes down.  To make it easy I'll give you a couple to look for beginning this evening and it doesn't even require you to stay up late or rise from your slumber in an early morning.

After sunset and as the sky darkens step outside and cast your gaze to the southern sky.  

Image credit - Starry Night

You will be able to spot yellow-orange Arcturus in the constellation Boötes (the Herdsman)  This happens to be the fourth-brightest star found in the whole of the night sky worldwide.  

Next, cast your gaze to the east  to locate an equally bright star Vega in the constellation Lyra (the Harp).  Two very bright stars in the June night sky to wish-upon.

Go ahead.

Make a wish.

Sometimes you never know what will happen....

Speaking Truth To Power

This, on student protests—Salman Rushdie in a May 19 interview with Bild, a German tabloid:

Right now, [one] has to be distressed by what is happening in Gaza because of the quantity of innocent death. I would just like some of the protests to mention Hamas, because that’s where this started. 

 

And Hamas is a terrorist organization, and it’s very strange for young, progressive student politics to kind of support a fascist terrorist group. They’re talking about “free Palestine,” and I mean, I’m somebody who has argued for a Palestinian state for most of my life—I mean, since the 1980s, probably. 

 

Right now, if there was a Palestinian state, it would be run by Hamas, and that would make it a Taliban-like state, and it would be a client state of Iran. And is that what the progressive movements of the Western left wish to create? To have another Taliban, another ayatollah-like state in the Middle East, right next to Israel? 

 

So I feel that there’s not a lot of deep thought happening. There’s an emotional reaction to the death in Gaza, and that’s absolutely right. But when it slides over towards antisemitism, and sometimes to actual support of Hamas, then it’s very problematic.

 

Learn more here.

Economics 101 and the Impact on Rising Gas Prices

As a recovering financial guy I am both bemused and chagrined on nearly a daily basis by the abundance of delusional and wrong-headed economic thinking (much of it magically wishful) that seems to fill every corner of social media as it relates to the subject of rising gasoline prices. 

It is apparent to me that confirmation bias has replaced Economics 101 as vast numbers of disaffected people pine for the return of the low oil prices of a year ago.  Perhaps they have forgotten this so I want to be absolutely clear -  the price of crude oil and gasoline tanked a year ago as the impact of the pandemic laid waste to the global economy AND PEOPLE STOPPED TRAVELING.  The truth of the matter is that demand fell off of a cliff.

Fast forward to today - a recovering economy is heralded with a rise of gasoline prices.

The price of crude drives two-thirds of the cost of a gallon of gasoline. The balance is refining, distribution, taxes, marketing and demand. 

On the demand side of the equation the increasing strong demand for gasoline (and other petroleum-based products) places pressure on the supply.  Basic economics dictates that as demand increases and supply remains static the higher demand leads to a higher equilibrium price.  And vice versa.

        

      Click on the image for a closer look at the graph

 

As individual consumers, higher prices at the pump means that some of us will have less money in our household budgets to spend on other goods and services.  As a consequence higher gasoline prices have an effect on the overall economy.  Nevertheless, high gas prices are a principal sign of a strong economy.  If you remember nothing else – remember that. 

If you want to forget something you can dispel the notion that Presidents Trump and Biden determine gasoline prices. 

That is not only lazy thinking - it is silly.

Frivolous Lawsuit

A few remaining words about Friday's unanimous SCOTUS ruling dismissing Donald Trump's baseless claims.

In the real world of laws and courts there is a standard for a meritorious claim.

The definition of meritorious is something that has value or that is deserving of praise or rewards. A lawsuit that actually makes a valid legal claim for which the plaintiff should receive legal relief or compensation is an example of a meritorious lawsuit.

Without proof it is a baseless - or frivolous - lawsuit.

 

Psychology 101

Leon Festinger's (1957) cognitive dissonance theory suggests that we have an inner drive to hold all our attitudes and behavior in harmony as a means of avoiding disharmony - or dissonance. This is known as the principle of cognitive consistency. 

Festinger first investigated this by means of an observational study of a cult which believed that the earth was going to be destroyed by a flood and the ensuing impact this had upon the membership. In particular, the really committed members who had given up their homes and jobs to work for the cult when the flood did not materialize. 

While fringe members were more inclined to recognize that they had made fools of themselves and to 'put it down to experience,' committed members were more likely to re-interpret the evidence to show that they were right all along. 

And as a consequence the earth was not destroyed because of the faithfulness of the cult members. 

If members of a modern day cult call for more ballots to be counted in one state and fewer in another do they experience any dissonance?

Reason to be Hopeful

If you have nothing better to do some day take a drive along the western shore of Lake Michigan from Kenosha County to Door County.  It’s easy as you can stay on a four-lane highway for the entire stretch. 

If you are observant you will see large swaths of dead trees.  On either side of I-43 in Ozaukee County you will note that a considerable portion of the visible forest is either dead or dying.  The destruction is horrifying in southeastern Wisconsin and is becoming more evident in Sheboygan, Manitowoc, Kewaunee and Door Counties. 

This is the handiwork of the emerald ash borer – an insect native to Asia that was discovered in southeastern Michigan in May of 2002.  It likely traveled here in the wood of a packing crate and in short order Michigan and Ontario became ground zero to this destructive insect.  Like the radiating ripples formed when a stone is cast into a pond the invader continues to expand its range.  The host for this killer are native ash trees.  And because ash in North America did not co-evolve with the borer these trees have no natural defense or resistance.  

Around here ash makes-up a sizeable component of the forest canopy.  It is well-suited to the heavy clay soils and thrives in the wetter bottomlands where it is a dominant species.  Green, black and white ash replaced much of the elm that died several generations ago.  You cannot miss the dead ash trees in and around Sturgeon Bay.  And in the vicinity of where I live I’ve noticed some sick-looking ash, crown die-back, bark flaking and woodpecker activity.  The ash is dying. 

It is easy to become discouraged by the grim notion of large woodlots of dead trees and the impact-upon all of the critters and resident landowners that make their home here.  The direct impact upon Jill and me is mitigated to some degree by the composition of our woods.  Because we planted most of it – it happens to be diversified.  Just like building a stock portfolio when you start a forest from scratch you plant an excess of a larger variety so as to account for mortality and not concentrate your bets.  Nevertheless, there is no getting around the reality that we also have a sizeable number of ash.  Some was  already here and thousands more were planted.  Most all of it carries a death sentence. 

As a consequence my retirement will include dropping trees, bucking logs and an endless supply of stove wood along with plenty of fresh air and exercise.  That is heartening.  There are additional reasons to be encouraged.  For starters it is not unusual to find elm still growing around here.  They are few and far between and it doesn’t get very large before it dies.  Strangely-enough not every last elm was killed so it persists in small numbers.  Maybe the ash will follow suit. 

There is also encouragement to be taken from the fact that trees planted decades-ago are propagating.  If I walk our woods I’ll find numerous small tamarack and spruce cropping-up in the understory.  If the deer don’t eat them all maybe enough of them will eventually fill-in where the ash die.  Forests have a way of healing after-all. 

And this year we’re finding tiny swamp white oaks growing all over the place including our yard.

I certainly didn’t plant them – some critter did.   The oaks we planted several decades ago were no larger than the tiny trees pictured above.  Since then they have become mature oaks and are now producing these.   

Click on images for a closer look

From acorns grow mighty oaks. 

Witnessing this natural regeneration is reason to feel encouraged.  So if your glass is half-full – you raise a toast to sustainable forestry.

Cheers! 

Theater of the Absurd

There are nine congressional districts that are associated with our 2,000-mile southern border. 

While the notion of a wall is popular among Trump supporters in North Dakota, Montana and Wisconsin it is a fact that each and every one of the members of congress representing the good people of these nine border congressional districts have one thing in common. 

Each is against President Donald Trump's border wall.  They’re all in favor of stronger border control and security measures but they’re all in agreement that walls don’t work and are a waste of taxpayer resources

Go figure….

Theater of the Absurd

Reasonable people support smart and reasonable border security.  That this has become a crisis is not supported by the facts. 

For starters the number of apprehended individuals at the southern border has declined 75 percent in the past two decades — from 1.6 million in 2000 to 397,000 last year. 

The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States is at a 15-year low.  Of those undocumented immigrants that are here – most of them arrived here legally and have overstayed their visas.  The truth is that they exceed the number who crossed a border illegally by almost two to one. 

Immigrants - legal and illegal - commit fewer crimes than native-born Americans.  The truth is that there has never been a terrorist attack in the United States carried out by terrorists who entered the United States from Mexico.  

To be sure there is a problem with undocumented immigrants and drugs entering the United States.  Nevertheless, it is also a fact that most drugs and undocumented immigrants arrive through legal ports of entry. 

It is also a fact that there is a real immigration problem on the border - Central American migrants have figured out that by showing up at the border in family units, they will be admitted into the country pending the adjudication of an asylum claim.  As a consequence of this the asylum system is overwhelmed and adjudications take what seems like forever. It is a fact that very few Central Americans succeed in their asylum claims.  Yet, almost all end up staying here.  This is because long before the case receives a hearing these would-be migrants can disappear into the U.S. labor market.  Poof!  The truth is that this is a problem.  However, the fix to that particular problem is not a wall. 

This is all quite logical to me – walls take a long time to build.  First of all you have to design your wall.  Then you have to perform the very un-republican act of condemnation and expropriation of privately-owned property by means of imminent domain.  Once you have gotten past the laughable notion of pulling this-off in south Texas – you still have to excavate, grade and build your wall.  That aside – walls make poor barriers.  A determined individual will tunnel under it, climb over it or go around it.  That is the truth – I’m not making it up.  Yeah, I know, railing about a wall can gin-up the faithful and cause rally attendees to get sweaty and aroused.  Nevertheless, with the exception of strategic and specific tactical applications walls are not as impactful on criminal activity as staffing and technological interdiction at legal ports of entry.   

The solution to the Central American  asylum problem is to get more adjudicators into the asylum system.  Right now. This can happen faster than the couple of years it will take to build a wall.  If cases are resolved fast, and border-crossers removed promptly, the surge of asylum seekers will abate.  Just like in 2015 after a crack down on the 2014 Central American border surge. 

Beyond that I’m not sure that there is anything to negotiate.  

I may be wrong but I think there is a very low probability of the Democrats caving on the shutdown.  Paying ransom for hostages only encourages more of the same bad behavior.  Just ask the Israelis.  Besides, Trump has said over and over - Mexico will pay for his wall.  That is the truth. 

In closing I would like to add that my disdain for liars refuses to be tempered. 

The truth hurts sometimes…
   
 

Sic Semper Tyrannis

As a casual observer to the manure storm Oscar Munoz (United Airlines CEO) created with his tone-deaf and continually-evolving non-apology, now-apology, for dragging a booked, paid and seated customer off of an aircraft I will make only one observation.  Maybe two.

I am exceedingly disturbed by the use of law enforcement personnel to enforce United Airlines policy.  The passenger did not pose a threat to the passengers or aircraft and broke no laws.  The officers should have simply informed United that there was no law enforcement issue at hand, that this was an airline policy matter and politely vacated the aircraft.  Instead, they acted as bouncers and enforcers for what should have remained a seemingly benign matter.

I have some advice for Munoz - if you want to seat a deadhead crew in lieu of paying customers you simply have to free-up the necessary seats by upping the ante for the privilege.  Raise the bid price so to speak.  Suck it up.  UAL can pay the freight.  Capitalism works most of the time you know. 

And for anyone holding out the false hope that a boycott of United Airlines is going to change their behavior - fuggetaboutit.  With only a handful of airlines dominating the major routes that is simply impossible.  Wishful thinking.  A good YouTube video, Facebook posting or twitter storm yields better and fast results - particularly if you lose market cap in the process.

Flying sucks nowadays as it is.  This goon squad thuggery simply rubs salt in the wounds.  A good beat-down on social media hurts.  Particularly since the SCOTUS has ruled that corporations are the same as living, breathing people...

Sloganeering

On February 23^rd President Donald Trump made it exceedingly clear to US Steel Chief Executive Mario Longhie that Keystone XL had to Buy American:  We put you heavy into the pipeline business because we approved, as you know, the Keystone Pipeline, but they have to buy ... steel made in this country and pipelines made in this country.  

If you were paying attention to the President’s speech to Congress a few days ago You observed and heard this:  New American pipelines be made with American steel.  

Two statements from Trump.  Are they one and the same?  Or has the earth under the pipeline shifted?

Consider this.  Trump’s Executive Order calls for U.S. steel to be used in “all new pipelines, as well as retrofitted, repaired or expanded pipelines”.   Keystone XL (first proposed in 2008) is currently in the process of being constructed and as a consequence we learned today that it does not meet the definition of a new, retrofitted, repaired or expanded pipeline.  It does not count.

Alas, if I had to hazard a guess I’d bet The Base still believes that only good-old, red-blooded, all-American, US steel is going into Keystone XL because they heard Buy American.  And that's what will make America great again.   Correct?  

Nope.   

And the old switcheroo is slicker than snot.  Steve Bannon's fingerprints are all over this.  Nice.  The man is a master propagandist.  You can learn more here.

Sales Pitch

President Donald Trump basically told Americans last night that he’s going to make sure we can have our cake and eat it, too—and by the way it will be a spectacular cake, it won’t cost much, and it’s going to help us lose a lot of weight.

Story here...

Magical Thinking

If a presidential candidate claims to have a "secret plan" to defeat ISIS overnight (if he really has such a magical plan) wouldn't it make sense to share this with our military (who is quite capable of keeping a secret) instead of allowing terrorist attacks to continue both here and abroad?

Or maybe boasting about it for eighteen months makes better sense.  Why let the rabbit out of the hat.

It's magic after all.

Hard to believe that people fall for this bull manure.

Wishful Thinking

My dogs engage in wishful thinking.  A great deal of it on a regular basis.  Just like the photo above they wish that the entire chicken enchilada casserole will magically fall from the counter top and land at their feet.  The Mother Lode.  If the casserole won't slide and fall to the floor maybe The Frau will drop her plate.  While it is an exceedingly low-probability event It could happen you know.  It would be like magic.  Which I suppose is why they persist in their wishful ways.

I think that people engage in their own version of wishful thinking.  Maybe somehow their circumstances will travel back in time to a place where things are as they were and not as they are today.  Of course, we all know that time travel doesn't exist. If it did it would be like magic.

But if someone promised you the moon and the stars and convinced vulnerable minds that somehow, magically, things would magically be as they used to be I suppose that an individual predisposed to do someone else's bidding might embrace wishful thinking.

If it made them feel better.

At least until the magic bubble is popped.

Wishful Thinking

Between 1999 and 2011 the US lost somewhere around 2 million jobs to trade competition with China—about 10 percent of all manufacturing job losses during that time.

What The Great and Terrible Oz does not tell his followers is that those jobs are gone for good.  

Done-for they are.

They have moved on from China to even lower-wage countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

The Terrible Oz is a fraud.