What's For Breakfast?

Yard Eggs.

One of the benefits of living in rural flyover country is neighbors who raise chickens and have eggs for sale or barter. They're fresher, more wholesome than factory eggs, and come in all sorts of fun colors including brown, green, blue and basic white.

Check this guy out for size and color (it's actually light greenish-blue).

That is a meal in itself...

 

 

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

 

Raising a toast to roast chicken dinner.

Mashed baby reds, homemade stuffing, leg and thigh, garden peas and gravy.

It's a winner.

That's for sure.

Sunday Morning Budgeting

Save your pennies; the dollars will follow

A favorite saying of my grandfather - a thrifty guy who barely squeaked by the catastrophe of the Great Depression.

Today I want to speak briefly, by means of words and charts, about budgeting, a distracting bump in the road and the gorilla in our living room. 

In 2022 two major federal programs accounted for 49 percent of all of our spending. 

Source: Office of Management and Budget, 09.27.22

 

Beginning this year spending for these programs will exceed that portion of the budget that accounts for everything else.  Folks, these budget items are the proverbial 800 pound budget gorilla.  

On a daily basis I am amused by members of congress talking about balancing the budget.  They make it sound easy.  It is so simple that if we stopped aiding Ukraine, cut the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or denied the FBI a new building or put an end to the practice of earmarks in budget agreements all of our financial worries would be resolved.

Nonsense.  All of it.  

The sum of all of this wouldn't amount to a hill of beans in the grand scheme of the federal budget.  

It's chump change. 

A handful of forward-looking and seemingly suicidal souls have dared to broach the subject of reforming entitlement spending; albeit inelegantly and without nuance. They have been castigated, browbeaten and cowed by members their own parties as a consequence.  This interests me as I think they are on to something. A subject deserving of serious discussion about taxation and spending.

Our Come To Jesus Moment  is recognition and acceptance of the brutal truth that our federal budget is simply not sustainable in its current form.  Expenditures exceed revenues and the difference is financed.  If spending was high and borrowing low the consequence would be prohibitively high taxes. 

The root of the problem is excessive government spending and insufficient revenue.

This is not a new problem.  Going all the way back to our country's infancy we had a debt problem.  Our war of rebellion against British rule resulted in a large debt load.  We had the same problem after the Second World War.  Our current problem is different in that it is not a consequence of war expenditures.  It is indeed a fairly recent phenomenon - a consequence of the federal response to the economic downturns of the 2008 financial crisis the the 2020 pandemic crisis.

Source: Congressional Budget Office, 10.04.22

It would be unfair to lay all of this at the feet of a couple of modern crises.  Bigger yet is the 800 pound gorilla.  If you were to have a talk with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is projected to grow from 10.7 percent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 15.1 percent in the next thirty years.  That is a big deal.

Let's put this in perspective in a way that is easy to grasp.  Imagine a median-income American family conducting its financial affairs like the US government. 

Source: Congressional Budget Office, 01.14.22

Change of subject.  Kevin McCarthy's caucus is home to a handful of nihilists who most days want to just blow shit up and burn it down.  Their style of politics is not about governing. It is not forward thinking.  None of it is enlightened thought. For them it is about performance, false indignation and sometimes bat-shit craziness like talk of secession.  This level of performative outrage is highly correlated with clicks and cable news coverage.  Which naturally leads to useless drama such as playing chicken with the debt limit.  As someone who has a normal, thoughtful Congressman as my representative I struggle with any tolerance for bat-shittery.

Nevertheless, in my world of normality I know that in the unlikely event the debt ceiling isn't raised the US Treasury would still have sufficient revenue to cover payments to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and government bonds as they came due.  Everything else would have to be dramatically cut so as to prioritize these payments.  I take no comfort from this as it doesn't quantify the associated damage this would cause to the global financial markets and our economy.  When you tolerate bat shit crazy you might just get what you ask for.

I do not believe we'll go down that path for reasons previously stated here.  The previous paragraph is a worse-case scenario. 

Reflecting on The Washington drama I've come around to entertaining the notion of the debt ceiling subject being a bright shiny object; a distraction.  I'm not totally convinced of this, yet might it be simply a bump in the road?  The road that takes us on our travels to the bigger problem embedded in the budget picture?

Ultimately we need to focus on the problem that overspending our budget has gotten us into.  That's a big, important deal worthy of critical thought, serious discussion and creative solutions.  Nihilism is a waste of valuable bandwidth.

Your head likely hurts so I'll stop here.  Rant and ramble over for now.  More about the 800 pound gorilla to follow.....  

Sunday Morning Economics - An Update And A Prediction

The over-expansive monetary policy and flooding of the economy with liquidity in 2020 under the Former Guy and continuing with the largess under the rule of the Current Guy it should come as no surprise the surge in inflation that we have been witness-too.

There is a combination of good and bad news with regard to the United States' near economic future.  Which would you like first?  Good news or bad news?  Good news you say?  I agree - eat dessert first.

The good news is that the Fed would appear to be putting the brakes on inflation.  Not a full stop - rather a slowing of growth and a retreat in a handful of sectors.  The bad news is that there is a very real possibility that this will come at the cost of a recession.  Is this an absolute certainty?  Nope.  But it is a probability.  Compounding this is the specter of a fight over the debt ceiling. 

In 2022 the Fed spurred interest rates four times in increments of 75 basis points.  And they did it again at the beginning of this month - which is kinda a big deal inasmuch as this old man hasn't seen that since the early 1980s.

Coincidentally, the Fed reduced market liquidity at the breathtaking pace of $95 billion a month by choosing NOT to rollover its portfolio of maturing Treasury securities.  The swing from loosey-goosey Covid policy to the belt-tightening of the last year is quite unprecedented.

A handful of forward-looking economic indicators suggest that housing costs (accounting for 40% of the CPI) are now falling.  No surprise there - mortgage rates today are double what they were at their historic lows in 2022.  Additionally, wage inflation has softened to 4.5% and the Purchasing Managers Indices imply the economy is at the possible threshold of a recession.

The country is reporting blow-out job growth with unemployment at its lowest level since 1969.  If you want a job in America you can probably get one.

Conclusion:  the tea leaves are mixed.  Under ordinary circumstances a recession might be mild or avoided altogether in the form of a soft landing.  Unfortunately, the circumstances are neither ordinary nor fortuitous.  The nihilists (a minority of Kevin McCarthy's caucus) still seem bent-upon blowing shit up and burning it to the ground.  This is hardly good faith bargaining or governing by means of responsible forward-looking budgeting. 

Sigh.

The last time this happened in 2011, vulnerable financial markets were rattled by the mere prospect that our government would default on its obligations which led to a downgrading of Treasury Bonds by the ratings agencies as it became clearer that we might not be a reliable borrower.

Do I think there will be a default?  

First-off, this blogger had to turn-in his crystal ball when he retired from the day job.  But my reading of the tea leaves suggests that there will be an agreement at the last minute of the last hour.  There will be an abundance of drama - followed by an agreement.  It will likely take the form of caps on discretionary spending, the formation of a commission or committee that will propose entitlement reforms along with rules for any proposals to come to the floor for a vote. 

Or I could also be full of it.  Or just pulling your leg for fun.

You're probably scratching your head and wondering.  To which my answer would be this:

McCarthy's caucus is singularly focused on one thing and one thing only: 

Restoring the Former Guy to the White House 

I think they understand that if they reach for another bridge too far a default would instantaneously result in a collapse of the global currency markets, throw the US economy into a deep recession, further cascading into a shit show of economic nonsense.  As their nest eggs evaporate retirees would revolt at the ballot box, Trump would be thumped in 2024, McCarthy would lose the house, the Dems would increase their hold on the Senate and Old Uncle Joe would have to don his crazy aviation glasses to avoid the glare of victory.  

Or maybe they don't understand this.

If it were me, I wouldn't want to die on that hill.  But nobody listens to me anyway.

Bottom line is Kevin is talking.  Biden is talking.  Which is good. There will be an agreement and I don't think the debt ceiling will be breached. Some forward-looking budget restraint would be a good thing.  Nevertheless, there will be theatrics.  Strap-on your harness and buckle-up.  As the days lengthen, spring is going to be awash in drama.

Stay-tuned......

Hostage Taking

So it would appear that we're going to be witness to a grand game of chicken as our nation has once again bumped up against a technical limit on how much debt it can issue.  Before too long, all the moving of chess pieces on the financial board will be exhausted.  Analysts from the realm of my former day job are already warning that the fight could tip from partisan brinkmanship into some serious economic and market badness. 

The GOP holds the House by a slim majority and Speaker McCarthy has made it clear that they want deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit.  To be clear, raising the debt limit is a requirement to paying for all that has been previously spent on behalf of all of the previous Presidents and Congresses.  Think of going to a restaurant and after reviewing the menu you order several courses of delicious food, you consume it and it is well on its way to digesting.  Now you have to pay the tab.  If you refuse to pay the bill that is bad form.  

You are a deadbeat.

If you are fond of wagers take note that Bank of America has suggested that a default in late summer or early fall is the odds-on favorite.

This blogger takes no issue with sensible budgeting and fiscal responsibility.  Along with keeping their nose out of my business and personal life my daddy's GOP was all over that.

On the other hand if all you want to do is blow-up shit and burn it to the ground that's called nihilism.  Nihilism is not Conservatism. 

Good governance is more aspirational.  

It's not hostage-taking.

Stay-tuned for the shit show and hope for normal congressmen to prevail over the nihilists.

I'm fully-stocked with Merlot and popcorn.

Nobody Here But Us Chickens

It has been snowing lately and if I had chickens this is the sort of door I would put on my coop.

Handyman Pro-Tip of the day......

 

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

Time got away from us today what with cleaning out and rearranging garage crap. 

Put this big-ass bird on the Slow ‘N Sear® XL at 4 PM with Penzeys Galena Street rub and a healthy spritz of EVO.  

 

By 6 PM this happened. 

 

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!

 

The Age-Old Question

 

Running an errand the other day and I had to stop for the chicken to cross the road.  

Why, you ask?

The answer is obvious.

She wanted to get to the other side.

The Incredible Edible Egg

In an Irish supermarket you will find chicken eggs in these convenient six-packs.  And they are not refrigerated.     

I’ve taken note of this in France and you will find it to be generally true throughout Europe.  You go the grocery and you’ll find the eggs either at the end of an isle or on the shelf along with routine canned goods, pasta, rice or other nonperishable foods.  In the US the eggs are found in the refrigerated dairy case along with milk, butter, cheese and orange juice.     

Why is this?      

In the states egg production occurs in large-scale vertical operations. We go big.  Nevertheless, while this occupies less space the eggs are more susceptible to contamination by hen feces raining down from above.  As a consequence they have to be washed and decontaminated.  In Europe free-range systems are preferred.  The priority is to produce clean eggs at the point they are collected instead of cleaning dirty eggs after the fact.  It is also useful to know that washing an egg damages the outside layer known as the cuticle.  Without that natural protective barrier it becomes easier for bacteria to penetrate the egg.  Finally, vaccination has been linked to a rapid decline of salmonella cases in the EU.  US regulators have still not mandated immunizations - although many eggs producers do vaccinate their hens nowadays. 

In the end a freshly-laid Irish egg can hang-out on your kitchen counter or in a cool dry pantry for more than a week.  Although once you put it in the fridge it has to stay in the fridge.      

I’m not suggesting one paradigm is necessarily better than the other – they’re different.  And anyone that has barnyard, free-range, or backyard chickens already knows this. 

Clean eggs are next to godliness. 

And they taste great.     

According to the US Food and Drug Administration salmonella remains the most common cause of food poisoning in the United States.

Nobody Here But Us Chickens

There is no doubt in this blogger’s mind that human activity has altered life as we know it on this planet.  Consider the following:  The introduction of agriculture which led to population growth.  The industrial revolution and the expansion of commerce.  Deforestation and the taming of the wilderness.  Plastics are showing-up everywhere.  Humans have left a mighty big footprint on planet earth. 

Anthropology - the study and impact of humans and their impact on ethnology, culture and environment.   It is said that we are likely experiencing the beginning of a new geologic epoch - the Anthropocene.  Not to be confused with the preceding epoch – the Late Holocene.  The Anthropocene would be the Age of the Human.

And wouldn't you know it - the broiler chicken figures significantly in this emerging epoch.  That is correct - the chicken phenomenon.  Nowadays, chickens are poised to overtake pigs as the largest contributor to our food pyramid.  This is an amazing accomplishment as archaeologists have concluded that it was roughly 2000 years ago that chicken began to be consumed in any significant numbers.   A couple of thousand years seems like a long time ago - yet it is barely the blink of an eye in geological time. 

There is science on this subject that is deserving of attention.  From the other side of the Big Pond researchers have studied the enormous impact that the chicken is having on that Human Footprint.   You see – humans – by means of breeding, diet and agricultural advances have doubled the size of this bird from the late medieval period to the present.  This includes a fivefold increase in body mass since the mid-twentieth century. 

According to the National Chicken Council on any given day there are about 23 billion chickens (give or take) strutting their stuff.  The chicken constitutes the single largest species of bird on the planet.  Astonishingly, 65 billion chickens are consumed each year – which explains who came first – the chicken or the pig.  The net result of all of that chicken carnage is a boatload of discarded chicken bones that have to be dealt-with year-in and year-out.  And while bird bones don’t fossilize well a bazillion chicken carcasses buried in countless landfills are going to be anaerobically-preserved for eons.  Imagine their discovery by alien archaeologists visiting during some future geological epoch. 

You have to wonder what they’ll conclude about a civilization that buried so many chickens.  Perhaps we won’t be remembered for the human footprint after all.  Just as earlier epochs are fondly remembered as the age of the dinosaurs it is entirely possible that the Anthropocene will be remembered as the age of the chicken...

Nobody Here But Us Chickens

Kentucky Fried Chicken ran out of chicken in the United Kingdom over the weekend forcing them to temporarily close most of their stores.   A few restaurants were continuing to offer a limited menu during shortened business hours; yet the chicken delivery problem is so severe that the company cannot say when operations will be back to normal.  

It’s not like there are no chickens to be had as there is plenty of chicken.  The issue is getting the chicken to the outlets that prepare it for consumption and sale.   Logistics firm - DHL - which took over deliveries for KFC recently - told Mirror Online: “Due to operational issues a number of deliveries in recent days have been incomplete or delayed”.   

While you wait you can learn more about the bottle neck here.

Friday Morning Humor

TacoTruck

 

The Chick-fil-A ad campaign could only last for so long before the chickens took action against the cows.  When hardly a day goes by with so many grumpy people sometimes you just need a senseless laugh, eh?

Day is Done

It's been a busy, fun-filled day and this blogger is getting ready to turn-in.  

Two last highlights are worthy of a post. 

This evening's gorgeous sunset...

And a beer can chicken basking in the glow... 

Cheers!

Locavore

click on the eggs for a better view

 

No, these are not Easter eggs.  These eggs came this way when I purchased them from the local grocer who is retailing them for a local producer.  They're of varying sizes and range from dark brown to light brown to cream-colored, speckled and pale green.  Yup, green.  The first time I've ever seen green eggs. 

According to Michigan State University Extension, egg color is determined by the genetics of hen that laid it. The breed of the hen will indicate what color eggs she will produce. For example, Leghorn chickens lay white eggs while Orpington's lay brown eggs and Ameraucana produce blue eggs.

The Ameraucana breed is responsible as the green falls into the category of eggs in shades of blue.  This breed is also noted for sporting a feathered muff and a beard (in lieu of ear tufts) and they are quite hardy and sweet-tempered.

You can learn more about this chicken breed at the Ameraucana Alliance.

If I have green eggs I need ham.  Green ham.  Green eggs and ham - Sam I am...