It's The Economy, Stupid.

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers.  I've written about the subject several times over the years.

Last week the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by fifty basis points (half of a percentage point).  Mortgage rates are down.  Inflation has basically been beaten into submission having settled at historically normal levels.  Gasoline is below $3 a gallon in many locations.  Our nation is a net-exporter of petroleum and natural gas.  Unemployment remains low.  The financial markets are out-performing.  I look at the economic landscape thru the lens of a recovering financial advisor and happen to think that the fundamental economic picture is pretty darn good.

Nevertheless, former president Trump tells us we're basically an economic failed state.  His followers believe it too.  Polling data from the New York Times and Siena College reveals that only 2 percent of voters believe the economy is excellent.  21 percent call it good.  28 percent consider it fair; while nearly half, 49 percent, rated it poor.

I do not minimize the reality that some individuals and families find themselves in economic circumstances that are diminished.  Maybe they've struggled since the Great Recession of 2008 with the 2020 COVID-induced recession delivering a one-two punch.  Yet, clearly there is a perception problem; and it is a problem that the Democrats own and continue to struggle-with.  I happen to believe that this perception disconnect has its roots in something of an idealized view of where voters were in the pre-COVID years versus where they are today.

It is a fact that before COVID inflation and mortgage rates were lower.  Unemployment was slightly lower than today.  And, of course, all of that ended with the 2020 recession resulting in a ginormous spike in unemployment, negative economic growth and a crash in the financial markets.

Since then, and over the last four years, growth in household income has been higher year-over-year, the markets are at record highs and the US economy rivals any other similarly-advanced economy globally.

Kamala Harris needs to work on her economic messaging.

If she wants to win the election.

Election Economics

It should come as no surprise that for many individuals and households their standard of living improved during the time Donald Trump was in the White House.  That's not to say that things ended badly with the COVID pandemic and recession at the close of his term of office; people tend to remember the positive and discount the negative.

It is textbook economics that massive stimulus spending and supply chain disruptions during both the Trump and Biden administrations are the causal contributors to the recent spike in inflation.   The impact of inflation materialized during Biden's occupation of the White House.  Consequently, many individuals associate inflation as something Biden is solely responsible-for.  Surprised?  Voters aren't economists. Economics is complicated stuff for anybody who drinks from the Face Book cesspool of lazy economic thought.  Excess liquidity and stimulus largess was the primary cause and interventionist action by the federal reserve is the prescribed cure.  Sure, I get the politics of gaslighting the inflation issue.  But I digress.

Under Biden many individuals and families have struggled with inflation.  And while conditions have improved this may not be enough for some voters.  For Biden that is a burdensome problem.

Trump has any manner of personal flaws, admires bad guys like Vladimir Putin, tried to steal an election, fomented a riot and continues to deny his 2020 election loss.  For Trump that is a burdensome problem.

For both Trump and Biden their administrations enjoyed the benefit of economic success and the challenges of economic headwinds.  Nothing new under the sun there.

There are voters that loathe Donald Trump and there are voters who loathe Joe Biden.  Voters frequently judge their presidents based upon their personal economic gains or losses coincident with a given administration.  Confirmation bias too.  Because I go out of my way to not allow politics to infect financial decisions I've prospered during the reign of both of these presidents.  Actually every president for as long as it mattered.

As a recovering financial guy it's easy for me to view the current economic condition with a rational eye.  What I see is an American economy that grew at a healthy clip in 2023.  Unemployment remained low, inflation continued to drop, job growth is holding steady, real wages (adjusted for inflation) exceed pre-COVID levels.  And exceeding forecasts, GDP growth climbed by 3.3 percent in the last quarter.  Speaking of forecasts, a year ago expectations were for a recession.  Today it is expected that while growth may slow in 2024; in the absence of an unexpected outside event (read: wider middle east war), no major downturn.  Consumer sentiment should continue to rebound.

If you want to throw your support to Biden because you believe you'll prosper knock yourself out.  If you're a Trump backer because you're convinced the current economy is a hell hole; hey, knock yourself out.  Know this:  election outcomes are more frequently determined by rational individuals found in the middle.  Namely independent and disaffected voters.

Just last month, polling by Gallup highlighted that more voters now identify as independent - forty-three percent - tying the previous high not seen since 2014.  Ponder the implications of this shift in light of the 2024 election.

The impact of a single president over something as huge and complicated as our economy is frequently overstated.

A platform of grievance and retribution doesn't cut it for me.

That's my nuance.

P.S. - At the time this is published the markets have also set record highs. Nevertheless, I acquired shares of BA at a significant discount recently.  An assembly mistake is not the same as a design defect.

More Voter Fraud

I've posted on this subject as recently as last month.

photo - Sumter County Jail

A fourth retiree from The Villages has been arrested as part of an ongoing investigation into voter fraud at the well-known central Florida retirement community. Charles Franklin Barnes, 64, was taken to Sumter County Jail on Tuesday night, and faces a charge of fraud, according to a spokesperson for the county sheriff’s office.  

Three other residents of The Villages, all reportedly registered as Republicans, were arrested last year for allegedly casting ballots in both Florida and their home states. Soon after, Lake County officials said they'd handed another six potential cases of double voting over to prosecutors.  As a consequence, additional arrests are likely to be made.  

Though records show Barnes is not registered with a political party in Florida, he allegedly voted there in the 2020 presidential election, as well as in Connecticut, where he is registered to vote. 

Mind you, this is not evidence of a vast conspiracy.  It is an example of the garden-variety fraud that goes on with every election.  

And none of it is of the scale that would likely impact the outcome of a national election.  Yet it does happen and it is committed by bad actors regardless of political party. 

Personally-speaking I'd like to see more of these morons caught, punished with fines, jail time and revocation of their voting privileges if convicted of a felony.  

Make and example of these fools.

Voter Fraud

What's not to like about closing-out the year with further evidence of voter fraud.

There is a retirement community in Florida called The Villages.  It is populated with individuals my age (or thereabouts) with a sizeable number of them not at all happy with the outcome of the 2020 presidential election

Their guy (the Former Guy) lost. 

In any event I'm gonna share that there seems to be no shortage of election fraud occurring amongst my Baby Boomer Brethren.  Except it is on behalf of the Former Guy.  You know, the guy who lost the election.  The guy who also lost the Senate along with the White House.  But let's not pile-on. 

Court records reveal that so far three residents of the community have been arrested for felony voter fraud in an ongoing investigation.  Jay Ketcik, Joan Halstead and John Rider are each charged with casting more than one ballot in an election, a third-degree felony.  Which happens to be punishable by up to five years in prison.

Ketcik, 63, is accused of voting by mail in Florida in October 2020 while also casting an absentee ballot in his original home state of Michigan, court records show.

Halstead, 71, voted in-person in Florida but also cast an absentee ballot in New York, prosecutors allege.

Rider, 61, was arrested by Brevard County deputies at the Royal Caribbean cruise ship terminal at Port Canaveral on December 3rd.  Prosecutors have indicated he cast ballots both out-of-state and in Florida. 

Voter registration records reveal that all three of these felonious personalities are registered as Republicans in Florida.

Mind you, this is an example of the garden-variety fraud that goes on with every election. And none of it is of the scale that would likely impact the outcome of a national election.

Yet it happens.

On both sides.

And in my view if it is proven in a court (our judicial system DOES work) maybe some people should pay ginormous fines, lose their voting privileges (if convicted of a felony) or maybe even do some time in prison. Make an example of stooges and cheaters.

In closing, how many of you readers remember Rosemarie Hartle? The Former Guy couldn't  keep his trap shut over how she voted in Nevada three years following her death. Hartle was married to Las Vegas businessman Donald Hartle – also a registered Republican. Last year Hartle expressed disbelief when it was learned that a mail-in ballot had been cast in his late wife’s name.  He was aghast and stated he was sickened by this and that he couldn’t possibly know how it came to happen. The case has been solved. Hartle cast the ballot himself.   And earlier this month he plead guilty to the crime of voting more than once in the same election.

You're welcome.

So do like me - a guy who almost always supports intelligent and honest GOP candidates in an election.  Dishonest or crappy GOP candidate?  Don't vote for them.  Do not compromise your scruples.  And for the love of God and all that is holy - don't cheat.  Cheaters are gonna get caught.......

An Election Prediction

Imagine a baseball game if you will.  It is the Top of the Ninth and the visiting team is up by one run over the home team.  The manager of the visiting team suddenly declares.  That's it.  Game over.  We win!  And with one remaining inning of play the visiting team calls the game and declares victory.

Crazy, eh?

Watch for something similar tonight.  At some point Donald Trump is going to step to the podium and before all the votes are counted is going to declare that he won the election.  Any further counting is not only unneeded, it is illegitimate.  He will declare any further counting of the votes is evidence that the election is rigged.

Crazy, eh?

Just because a candidate declares victory it does not mean the election is over, but such a move could be used to create a false political reality to build momentum behind subsequent legal challenges. 

I predict that this will happen.

Of course, if Trump is appearing to be winning by a landslide of the popular and electoral vote I will predict the same.  So either way - this is a very safe prediction to make as far as predictions go. 

One more safe prediction.  Just for good measure.

Win or lose - Donald Trump is going to fire Dr. Anthony Fauci.  That's a fact!

Trump is quite predictable in some ways after-all.....

Vote

It's election day people.

If you haven't already done so - get your a$$ to your polling place.

Do it.

Do it now!

Doing the Right Thing

Tomorrow is election day and with it comes the opportunity to either continue with more of the same or to change the face of government beginning with 2021.  I'm no different than roughly half of my friends, family and acquaintances - we have Trump fatigue.  After four seasons of reality television governance I've had my fill of chaos.  It's time to move on.  

Those of you readers who know me - already know that I'm no fan of Donald Trump.  I have never been a fan of Donald Trump.  When I first became aware of him some three and a half decades ago I pretty much figured him for something of a con-man and braggadocio who was the star of a really lame television production.  I never did - and still do not - understand the attraction.  

Nevertheless, he was elected president and I had some hope that he would evolve and grow into presidential material. That did not happen.  What followed was bad trade policy, ad-hoc domestic economic policy, inconsistent foreign policy, random agricultural policy - almost all of it directed by means of absurd tweeting.  

And the interesting thing about all of this was that the economy Donald Trump inherited from Barack Obama remained strong.  If not for the stifling impact of punitive tariffs GDP growth would have been stronger - but I'll take strong any day of the week.  Under ideal circumstances - at this point in time - there would have been a high probability that Donald Trump would be sailing to another electoral victory on the coattails of the economy.  He may yet sail to an electoral victory - but there is the very real possibility we won't know that for sure until the end of the week. 

Unfortunately for Donald Trump he made a strategic error.  He allowed his singular fixation-upon the investment markets as the key to reelection get the best of him.  And at this point in time it is now all about the pandemic.  From the interweb are a couple of historical factoids to provide perspective. 

In the depths of World War II American soldiers were dying at a rate of 9,200 a month.  That is less than one-third the pace of deaths from this pandemic.  

By 1945, Henry Ford’s Willow Run assembly plant was producing a new B-24 bomber every hour of every day.  Donald Trump hasn’t demonstrated the leadership necessary to ramp-up domestic  production of a sufficient number of simple and uncomplicated N95 masks.  

I’ve been following this closely since the early part of 2020.  I am struck that Donald Trump’s leadership sabbatical from managing the pandemic stems largely from his preoccupation with reelection.  More concerned about ‘spooking’ the markets Trump’s strategy was to soft-peddle the virus and push back on the very real danger to this nation in an effort to keep the economy roaring. 

Leadership on a comprehensive plan to fight Covid was replaced with willful blindness. 

This was further complicated by the embrace of anti-intellectual sentiment and dismissal of science in the face of wishful thinking.  At the end of last February Donald Trump had this to say about the virus - 'It’s going to disappear one day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.' 

Donald Trump proceeded with the following:  

He politicized and discouraged mask wearing.  

His administration bungled an initial attempt at testing. 

His administration delayed a roll out of contact tracing. 

His administration failed to isolate the infected and exposed.  

His administration failed to protect assisted living communities and nursing homes.  

Trump contributed to the initial confusion with his bizarre, incoherent and nonsensical advice about injecting bleach into the bodies of the infected, exposing the sick to intense ultraviolet light and the use of an untested and dangerous antimalarial drug - hydroxychloroquine. 

True to form - Trump refused to lead and rejected responsibility.  Predictably, he dismissed any unified countermeasures instead shifting all responsibility to the states and local municipalities to persecute the war on Covid.  Chaos prevailed.  And blame-shifting is what Trump does.   

To be fair – he did yeoman's work accelerating the pace of vaccine research and development. Better late than never.  

Great leaders are endowed with great qualities.  Among them are an ability to act immediately and to place the interests of the citizenry above their own. Great leaders seek advice, embrace experts and science. They speak the truth.  They unify and lead states and municipalities for the greater good.  

Alas, Donald Trump devalues science and denigrates and expresses contempt for experts. He refers to them as idiots.  He divides the nation and pits Republican states and municipalities against Democrat-leaning states and municipalities.  Trump is not a unifying force. 

He is not a leader.

He is a chronic liar and seemingly incapable of telling the truth even when it is in his own best interests to do so. 

Doing the right thing is not in his lexicon.

As evidence of his bungling the best tool for saving our economy was to control the virus.  Sure, I understand that this pandemic would challenge any president.

Nobody can control it completely.

Donald Trump chose to ignore the virus. 

As a consequence we have a seriously wounded economy.  It took more than three months for the first 500,000 Covid cases to be tallied in the US.  Just last week the US smashed another record with more than an additional 500,000 cases in a single week - 92,000+ in a single day. 

Even as the Trump administration announced last week that it has ended the Covid pandemic as a first-term scientific accomplishment - hospital admissions climbed more than fifty percent in one month.

At last count there are more than 9,300,000 coronavirus cases, more than 233,000 Covid deaths - growing by more than 1,000 a day.  Hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of additional individuals have dodged a death sentence only to be hobbled by chronic Covid complications.  

Millions of my countrymen are unemployed, three-fifths of U.S. businesses that have closed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic will never reopen.  Donald Trump has blown thru the previous bankruptcy record set in 2008.  Foreclosures and evictions are manifest. 

It is a mess and because he has lorded over all of it Donald Trump owns all of it.  

I do not make it a practice to take politics personally.  Explain to me the rules and I can navigate life with a reasonable degree of success.  I can do a decent job of compartmentalizing the emotional element to the politics. Nonetheless, I hold Donald Trump personally responsible for taking from me a valuable year of my remaining life. 

No grand-kids.

Multiple vacations cancelled.

No foreign or domestic travel. 

No school garden with the local kiddos.

No socializing with friends.

No nothing. 

It did not have to be this bad.

Ample-enough reason for him to be fired.  Harsh words from a guy that typically has been a reliable supporter of Republican presidents.  Not this time.  I'd like to see the GOP I knew rid itself of the decay, stain and sin of Trump and Trumpism.  

That said, the remaining half of my friends, family and acquaintances are to some degree Trump supporters.  They range from die-hard personality-cult Trumpers to others that hold their nose and vote for him because they are single issue anti-abortion voters, desire to pack the courts or harbor some other personal or policy grievance.  For them a vote for Trump is doing the right thing.  I get it.  

To these people I would say that I bear you no animus.  Many of you are counted among my closest friends.  Some of you are family.  All of you are my countrymen.  We share a difference of opinion.  

After this election is behind us and the winner is duly declared roughly half the nation will likely be in a dark place for a spell.  

Yet, the sun will surely rise every day as there are some laws of nature that are immutable.  Life will go on.  What never changes is that we have a duty to each other as contributing members of society to look out for one-another and advance the greater good.  

Let's all get on with life continuing to do the right thing.

 

Hospital

It didn't have to get this bad.

Republican voters against Trump are going to send this man packing.

Vote..... 

The Walk of Shame

Republican voters against Trump.

It's not too late to join the growing movement...

Gasping for Air

Republican voters against Trump.

It's not too late to join the growing movement...

 

Shining City on a Hill

Republican voters against Trump.

Consider joining and supporting the growing movement.......

Rare Invasive Species

This brought a smile to my lips.

Meet Impotus Americanus - is one of the heaviest leaders in the animal kingdom.  Field marks include an orange, ruddy color not found in nature.

Conservative, Republican and Independent voters that are committed to eradicating this invasive species come November.

Consider joining and supporting the growing movement...

 

The Embarrassment of the Truth

A day does not pass without President Trump claiming – without any evidence whatsoever – that November’s election is ‘rigged’ because of rampant mail-in ballot fraud.  What else is new?  That's just part of Donald Trump's shtick - and we've been forced to listen to it for more than five years.       
 Nevertheless, it has gained some traction on various social media platforms as a source of fakery, agitprop and disinformation. 

Let's be absolutely clear - I am not saying that voter fraud DOES NOT exist.  It does. On a national scale it occurs in remarkably small amounts.    

There is this, lifted verbatim, from a Face Book page: 

Talked to a fellow I used to work with. He lives in Madison. Tells me his neighbor is trying to figure out how to handle 7- thats 7 absentee ballots mailed to her for her husband. Who died 3 years ago. All signed and ready to be mailed back.

What could possibly go wrong with other than in person voting? I'll let you figure that out.     

Ummm.  Let’s call it what it is.  A fairy tale. Basically a lie.

In Wisconsin mail-in ballots simply do not magically materialize out of nowhere. The meme about dead people makes it even more fanciful.

I hate to repeat myself but once-again let’s review how voting by mail works here in Wisconsin.

1.  If I wish to vote by mail I first have to be registered to vote 

2.  I have to provide acceptable photo identification 

3.  I have to initiate the request in writing 

4.  I have to do this for each election (it is not automatic)  

5.  The ballot is mailed to me 

6.  After completing my ballot I seal it in a post-paid return envelope  

7.  I sign the envelope (under penalty of perjury)  

8.  I have my signature witnessed by another adult 

9.  After mailing it I can track the return of my ballot online 

10.  Upon receipt by my Town Clerk the ballot is logged-in and further tracked  

11.  The signature must match the one on file with my voter registration 

12.  The address must match that on file with the registration* 

13.  One ballot per voter         

*Noteworthy is that addresses for voter registration are updated via Wisconsin DMV for both drivers licenses and state-issued IDs.  If you move you have to notify the DMV of your new address.  As a result - if you are a registered voter - your registration is also updated with your new address and your former registration at the old address if purged from the voter rolls.  You are unable to vote twice using a new and former address.  

This entire process is a product of Republican voting reform measures enacted into law under Governor Scott Walker's administration.  It is a solid system with little, if-any, opportunity for fraud. 

So please tell me where the forgery, fraud, foreign interference, ballot-stuffing, tampering, counterfeiting and ‘rigging’ of the election occurs? 

How does a guy dead more than three years pull this off?  The short answer is that this is fiction.  As proof, why would someone intent-upon committing voter fraud bother with mailing forged and signed ballots to a surviving spouse?  Not very creative.  And it won't work.    
 It is a small matter to conjure-up a fabrication and post it on Face Book or Twitter. The amount of wasted bandwidth amounts to nothing.  Call it what it is - a fanciful prevarication. A lie. And individuals who pull this stuff out of their ass are liars. 

Consider this tall tale might conceivably have happened.  Then by extension, a failure to report it to law enforcement or carry it through would be complicity to commit voter fraud. Crowing about it on social media would be really stupid. With a high probability of being caught and to your embarrassment and possible loss of employment you would join the small list of convicted Wisconsinites found on the link above.       

That you know to be the truth.

Here's a handy guide to fighting lies, fake news and other social media fabrications.  

Proof

A day does not pass without President Trump claiming – without any evidence – that November’s election is ‘rigged’ because of rampant mail-in ballot fraud. 

It also appears to have become the latest and greatest form of Faux Face Book Outrage.   

A few months ago I challenged my FB friends to furnish evidence of how a fraud could be perpetrated in Wisconsin’s vote by mail process.  Not surprisingly nary a solitary individual stepped-up to explain how it could be accomplished. Yet, the claims of fraud persist.  These same individuals insist it is widespread.

So let’s review how it works here in Wisconsin. 

If I wish to vote by mail I have to be registered to vote. 

I have to initiate the request in writing.

I have to provide acceptable photo identification. 

The ballot is mailed to me. 

After completing my ballot I seal it in a post-paid return envelope, sign the envelope (under penalty of perjury) and have my signature witnessed by another adult. 

Upon receipt by my Town Clerk the ballot is tracked and the signature on it must match the one on file with my voter registration. 

My address must match that on file with the registration. 

Edit to add:  Addresses for voter registration are updated via Wisconsin DMV for both drivers licenses and state-issued photo IDs.  If you move - and wish to vote - voter registration is updated for the new address and old registration/address purged from the voter rolls. 

One ballot per voter. 

That appears to me to be a rather solid system with all kinds of security measures.  So please tell me where the forgery, fraud, foreign ballot-stuffing, tampering, dead people, counterfeiting and ‘rigging’ of the election occurs?

Anyone? 

Please?

Election Day

Voter apathy was around forty-six years ago.  It has always been around.  Do your civic duty today.

 

VOTE ! 

 

Exercise your Franchise

A right conferred or established by a government, such as the right to vote (exercise one's franchise) in a local or national election.

Ballot Access

I had a dust-up today with a poll worker at my new polling place.  He was not going to give me a ballot because the address on my driver license did not match the voter registration address following a recent move.

I explained to him in an adult voice loud enough for the entire room to hear that a Wisconsin DOT-issued driver license is an accepted form of photo ID and DOES NOT have to be reissued to reflect a change of address.

After some discussion - and another poll worker setting him straight - I was allowed to vote.

After I arrived home I sent the City Clerk an email detailing the events.  I received the following in response:

Thanks for the feedback – I do appreciate it. We did hit on the difference at training between photo ID and proof of residence, and that the photo ID proves who you are and not where you live. Evidently we need to hit on it harder at the next training. Again, thanks for taking the time to let me know. It is concerning to know that the November election is looming , turnout will be much higher, and training points haven’t ‘sunk in’ for some people.

City Clerk

I shared this with my wife who is a supervising poll worker.   She told me they get a few complainers and it really doesn't make her day go great.  Moreover it makes her and her colleagues wonder why they bother to get up at 5 AM to do their civic duty.  She suggested that a volunteer with a whopping one hour of training beforehand might not remember everything.

I think that the takeaway from this is that I had to provide proof of residence when I registered to vote.  To cast a ballot I have to furnish an acceptable photo ID as evidence that I am who I am – ostensibly to prevent voter impersonation.

The poll worker was possibly confused, over-zealous or simply being a jerk. 

I was number 90 today.  Might there have been someone else turned away?