It's The Economy, Stupid.

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers.  I've written about the subject several times over the years.

Last week the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by fifty basis points (half of a percentage point).  Mortgage rates are down.  Inflation has basically been beaten into submission having settled at historically normal levels.  Gasoline is below $3 a gallon in many locations.  Our nation is a net-exporter of petroleum and natural gas.  Unemployment remains low.  The financial markets are out-performing.  I look at the economic landscape thru the lens of a recovering financial advisor and happen to think that the fundamental economic picture is pretty darn good.

Nevertheless, former president Trump tells us we're basically an economic failed state.  His followers believe it too.  Polling data from the New York Times and Siena College reveals that only 2 percent of voters believe the economy is excellent.  21 percent call it good.  28 percent consider it fair; while nearly half, 49 percent, rated it poor.

I do not minimize the reality that some individuals and families find themselves in economic circumstances that are diminished.  Maybe they've struggled since the Great Recession of 2008 with the 2020 COVID-induced recession delivering a one-two punch.  Yet, clearly there is a perception problem; and it is a problem that the Democrats own and continue to struggle-with.  I happen to believe that this perception disconnect has its roots in something of an idealized view of where voters were in the pre-COVID years versus where they are today.

It is a fact that before COVID inflation and mortgage rates were lower.  Unemployment was slightly lower than today.  And, of course, all of that ended with the 2020 recession resulting in a ginormous spike in unemployment, negative economic growth and a crash in the financial markets.

Since then, and over the last four years, growth in household income has been higher year-over-year, the markets are at record highs and the US economy rivals any other similarly-advanced economy globally.

Kamala Harris needs to work on her economic messaging.

If she wants to win the election.