Don't Kiss The Frog

You have to kiss a lot of frogs before you find your handsome prince.  So goes the fairy tale by the Brothers Grimm about the frog prince.  

The version ending with the Princess kissing the frog, who transforms to a handsome prince, is unfaithful to the original in both spirit and content. In the original tale it is the abject rejection of the frog that culminates in the princess violently hurling the hapless amphibian against a wall that transforms him.  The Brothers Grimm sometimes dispensed with nuance.

The version with the kissing is more about doing what you are told - and for women anyway - compliantly accepting their fate.  The original fairy tale is edgier, much more about societal status, the traditional role of women in general and the assertion of free will.  The tale is dripping in allegory and bears little resemblance to a Disney production.  Naturally, all things Disney become fantasized.  Besides, I have the book and have read the tale.  You can fight me over interpretation any time you care.

If only Russian dissident and opposition leader Alexei Navalny had an opportunity to toss his assassins against a wall. 

According to five European governments, recent forensic testing reveals that Navalny was likely murdered with epibatidine, a potent neurotoxin found in South American poison dart frogs.  This finding has resurrected scrutiny over the circumstances of Navalny's 2024 death barely two years ago. 

France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK have reported that independent laboratory analysis detected the rare toxin in preserved tissue samples from Navalny's body.  They argue that inasmuch as there is no credible natural explanation for its presence they have reported the findings to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons as a possible violation of international law.

I am not a biologist, but even I know that poison frogs are not native to Russian Gulags situated above the Arctic circle.  What I do know is that even small amounts of this toxin can disrupt the human nervous system, causing paralysis, respiratory failure and death. 

Navalny died February 16, 2024 imprisoned in a remote and frozen Soviet-era penal colony.  Naturally, the Putin regime denies any involvement insisting that their problematic citizen passed away of natural causes.  

Six years ago I had the opportunity to learn more about South American poison dart frogs on a museum tour.  You can see them here in captivity - duplicating their tropical environment.

 

Got to hand it to Vlad.  It used to be Sudden Russian Death Syndrome; the accidental falling from hotel windows phenomena that has claimed the lives of a mind boggling number of businessmen, bureaucrats, oligarchs and journalists as a mechanism to silence opponents would suffice.  Having dispensed with the messiness of Polonium-210 as the poison of choice the play list now includes a toxin from South American poison frogs. 

If only the Brothers Grimm were alive today to spin a fairy tale with this material.....

Big Gubmint

Scuttlebutt around here is that the president has manifested some sort of excess meddling in business, markets and government.  I'm not suggesting what we've grown accustomed to witnessing in other more authoritarian regimes such as Russia and Communist Red China; but more meddlesome than what some may consider a classic laissez-faire, free market perspective. 

Consider that the president fired Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, earlier this month after big downward revisions to jobs data.  Similarly, he ordered Goldman Sachs to fire an economist, Intel to fire its CEO, demanded a government ownership interest in Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel, demanded a 15% cut of AI chip sales to China.  Invested a total of $11.1 billion in chip manufacturer Intel for a 9.9% stake.  And shook down most of our trade partners to pledge billions of dollars of investment in negotiating export taxes.  

Compounding this our tariff policy has become a tool wielded at the sole discretion of the executive branch and varies haphazardly by country, product and fit of pique.  It's manic.

By all outward appearances you'd think that we've become a hybrid of Soviet-style centralized state-run economics. 

I would argue no; not yet anyway.

Government has a long and storied history of embedding itself in business and all things economic; even in a capitalist economy such as ours.  Until Obama rolled-around we legislated restrictions on crude oil exports.  We've instituted wage and price controls and interfered with the regulation of banks and savings and loans at our own peril.  

Farm policy pays farmers to grow and not to grow.  We've subsidized ethanol production and green energy technologies. Congress legislated how many gallons per flush and never consulted a plumber.  They also instituted TARP to bail out banks, automakers and organized labor. 

Furthermore, agencies like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae artificially impact mortgage rates distorting the housing market.  Similarly, Biden pushed to forgive student loans.  Once upon a time we took an ownership interest in a civilian passenger liner.

I could go on, but I think you get my drift.

On the happen chance you believe I support this; I do not.  I'm disinclined to political busybodies interfering in free markets.  Nevertheless, I expect the president is going to continue to pick winners and losers.  Every day is an opportunity to discover he got up on the wrong side of the bed and you, your business or country may join the ranks of losers.  

All of my previously self-identified libertarian acquaintances have suddenly gone deaf and dumb.  And I continue to have a tough time figuring-out how any of this advances your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  And is the world a safer place? Yet?

Faith

 

The dollar is off to its worst start since 1973.  And it has continued its slide even though President Trump has backed down from some of his tariff threats and the stock market has bounced back from earlier losses.

 

What gives? 

It can be a mixed bag.  A weakening dollar, while potentially beneficial for some sectors, generally leads to increased import costs, higher inflation, and potentially higher interest rates.  This can impact consumers through increased prices on imported goods and potentially higher borrowing costs.  However, it can also make American goods more attractive to foreign buyers, boosting exports and potentially stimulating economic growth.

On the negative side of the ledger a weak dollar can lead to increased import costs.  As the US dollar buys less foreign currency it costs more to import goods from other countries.  Consequently this can lead to higher consumer prices in a wide range of imported products potentially fueling inflation.  

If a weaker dollar does lead to higher inflation the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in an attempt to curb rising prices.  This would make borrowing more expensive for consumers and business impacting everything from mortgages, car and small business loans. 

Is overseas travel on your agenda?  A weaker dollar means your money doesn't stretch as far as it used to and travel becomes costlier. 

On the positive side of the ledger a weaker dollar makes exported goods and services cheaper for foreign buyers.  Potentially this can increase export demand and boost the competitive edge for American businesses.  If there is an increased demand for US exports the can lead to higher production, job creation and overall economic growth.

And just like foreign travel is costlier for Americans the opposite is true for foreign tourists.  A weaker dollar means that overseas currencies are stronger relative to the dollar making travel here more affordable.

Bottom line?  US debt already exceeds $36 trillion. The passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, at a minimum, is going to increase Federal debt by $3.3 trillion; raising the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio from 124 percent today, raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability.  The mounting annual deficits would rise to 6.9 percent of GDP from about 6.4 percent in 2024.  Confidence in the US continues to erode.

Owing to our dominance in trade and global finance the dollar has been the world's reserve currency.  More than half of the world's exports are denominated in dollars, 60 percent of all bank deposits are denominated in dollars and 70 percent of all international bonds are priced in US currency.  And 57 percent of the world's currency reserves - assets held by central banks - are held in dollars.  All of this is supported by confidence in the US economy, our financial markets and our legal system.

President Trump is changing all of this; further spreading uncertainty. 

Presently, foreigners own $19 trillion in US equities, $7 trillion in Treasuries and $5 trillion miscellaneous US credit; and investors are beginning to realize they might be over-exposed to US assets and their trust is beginning to erode. 

If global investors continue to trim their positions the dollar's value could come under sustained pressure as the US becomes a less attractive place to invest these days.

Trust is like the air we breathe – when it’s present, nobody really notices; when it’s absent, everybody notices. 

- Warren Buffett

 

 

 

Ticking Time Bomb

The President's Big Beautiful Bill could possibly be beautiful and is certainly is big; but not simultaneously.  Setting a record for an all time high in deficit spending is the big part and that is hardly beautiful.  It is an economic time bomb that could eventually bring down our rather decent credit rating and our children's economic prospects along with it.

That is hardly a beautiful prospect.

This is spending on the scale of a wartime economy.  Last time I looked, we're not at war; a real one anyway.

There is momentum in the Senate to stop the process, at least "until the president gets serious about spending reduction and reducing the deficit," said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI). Johnson's concerns come as a number of GOP lawmakers, including Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), have indicated they will not back the bill in its current form.  

The administration and the house are whistling past the graveyard; the Senate has an opportunity to take a whack at the House Pinata and perhaps bring some sanity to this debauchery of spending.  

I hate to sound like a broken record and say I told you so; but the solution to our budget deficit is the 800 pound gorilla sitting with us in the room.  Namely, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  They need to be reformed.

Of course, that is a heavy lift and hard work.  The administration seems loathe to roll-up their sleeves and work hard.  And if Trump's party loses some or all of its power in the mid-terms the opportunity to take it on later will have passed.

Meanwhile we have reality television cage-match politics.  We are living in interesting times. 

Friday Music

Wednesday of last week Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band opened their Land of Hope & Dreams Tour in Manchester, England. 

Bruce launched this run of shows with three statements about the the current state of affairs in the United States, with comments preceding his songs "Land of Hope and Dreams," "House of a Thousand Guitars" and "My City of Ruins."  Naturally, this has gotten under some some people's skin.  

Snowflakes.

As a young man I came of age in the 1970s with Bruce Springsteen rocking my life via a four speaker Craig, surround sound, AM/FM, stereo cassette sound system in my trusty VW Westphalia camper van. I was a popular guy.  But I digress.

Not one to shy-away from politics Springsteen has long had an activist streak.  Which might explain why I've been a follower since I got hooked on the music with Greetings from Asbury Park.  And a fellow American who's grateful for patriots like Bruce to stick it to the oligarchs.

More than fifty years of rockin' the lives of ordinary Americans; yes, us little people. The Boss speaking truth to power.  

Some things never change.....

Follow The Money

The Wisconsin Supreme Court election was held yesterday with candidate Susan Crawford besting Brad Schimel in what everyone has concluded was very much a national race.  And by any measure the costliest judicial race in our country's history.

With ideological control of the court again at stake, the race shattered the record set just two years ago. Through April 1, WisPolitics tracked $107 million in overall spending through independent expenditure filings with the state, data from AdImpact, information from media buyers and sources with knowledge of the efforts. That includes $58.2 million by Schimel and those supporting him and $48.8 million by Crawford and those backing her.

Still, no donor was more influential than Elon Musk.  

The billionaire oligarch and top aide to President Trump plus two aligned PACs put in more than  $24 million, according to the WisPolitics tally. That includes $12.6 million by America PAC and another nearly $8.7 million by Building America’s Future PAC. 

Oh Boy, Howdy!

Key Points

• Records show that more than 100,000 people from all 50 states have sent money to the campaigns of liberal Susan Crawford and conservative Brad Schimel in hopes of helping them across the finish line.
• Overall, Crawford has raised more than $26 million, almost double the $14 million Schimel has raised.
• Some 77% of Crawford's donors come from outside Wisconsin, compared with only 13% of Schimel's backers. Still, both drew the bulk of their cash from Wisconsinites.
  

 

Link to excellent local coverage of the donor class for each candidate.

Notable Quotable

Russia should 'introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social, and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics'.

 - Alexander Dugin - Foundations of Geopolitics, 1997

Is It Only The Economy, Stupid?

A variation on the title of this post was coined by strategist James Carville as a missive to campaign workers leading up to Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush.  I've written about the subject many times over the years.  Is it only about the economy?  Or is there more?  I would postulate that it is the economy and much  more.

Tomorrow Donald J. Trump will be sworn-in as America's 47th President.  Who, in the lead-up to the festivities, would tell you that he alone can fix our country's hellscape of lawlessness, disorder, economic collapse, inflation, energy dependence, mobocracy, crisis and chaos.

Perhaps you share that view.  Not me; I would submit that by any rational measure of the condition of the United State of America the president-elect will be taking over a country in rather decent condition. Let's take a walk thru the relevant numbers.

Contrary to what the president-elect will tell you drug overdose deaths are down and the manufacturing sector has created more jobs than at any time in the last decade and a half.  Although some prices remain stubbornly high; inflation is down significantly.  Inasmuch as federal largess under both Trump and Biden contributed to the expansion of the money supply Trump now shoulders the burden to reduce the cost of my groceries.  Fair is fair. 

December delivered an overall blowout jobs report and wages are up and continuing to rise, all the while unemployment is at levels before the COVID shitshow hit the fan.  Domestic energy production of crude oil and natural gas are at record levels and we are now the global leader in production and export of crude oil.  Meanwhile, a gallon of regular unleaded, around here anyway, will set you back less than $2.50.  We are awash in an embarrassment of energy and production.

Nevertheless, it goes beyond the economy.  Illegal immigration is belatedly, but at long last down and we've found ourselves with the lowest violent crime rates in fifty years.  No American military forces are in a hot war elsewhere in the world and Trump's go-to Gold Standard for how he's doing - the stock market has set a new record for the past two years.  Finally, Americans have shown signs of coming around to actually recognizing and accepting the reality that conditions on the ground are pretty darn good.   

I'll bet you a steak dinner that in reasonably short order President Trump will take credit for the strong economy he is about to inherit.  That's because as I gaze across my landscape I don't see a hellscape; I see prosperity and the best economy on the planet.  If you think I'm making this up out of thin air; fight me.

Do not get the impression I am diminishing the reality that not each and every single last American, shares the same upwardly economic prosperity and living conditions.  Poor people and economically disadvantaged families are real.  Nor am I blind to politics.  It is certainly in Trump's self-interests to paint as bleak a landscape a possible for his base.  Nothing new under the sun there.

As Trump assumes office there are no shortage of challenges ahead.  Russia, China and Iran are failing states.  Russian and North Korean military personnel allegedly execute Korean wounded to erase evidence of North Korean involvement in the war against Ukraine. Ugh.

Here at home, domestic terrorism has, again, reared its head.  There is funding the budget and passage of a reconciliation bill, the DOGE, the debt ceiling, tax policy, Social Security and Medicare.  Will there be a comprehensive immigration policy?   99 cent a dozen eggs?

Placing a higher value on action I try to tune-out the talk.  Consequently, I'm looking forward to detailed policy to materialize.  You know, policies which will improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  And maybe make the world a safer place.

Donald Trump has been dealt a solidly good hand and I'm looking forward to being witness to how he plays it.

Bring it on.....

Independence Day

The week preceding my South Dakota vacation (likely Monday, October 28 or thereabouts) a couple of economic news feeds caught my attention with some pre-election chatter.   

Equity, fixed income and currency markets were beginning to signal a Trump win.  

With that I thought to myself:  Election too close to call.  Bad news for Team Harris.  All of which was confirmed Wednesday morning November 6.  Donald Trump had won both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

With this came a big mandate for change.  And a bit of relief for me about something long in the making and now confirmed.  The party of Ronald Reagan was dead.  I take no joy in its passing; only relief in that it is now over and done with.

As a general rule my opinions about Donald Trump have reflected that I do not think very much of him as a person.  Nothing in this recent election outcome has changed that view.  His exhortations invalidate everything I have been taught about how to live my life and everything I've imparted to my daughter about being kind, generous, loving your neighbor, being accepting, showing understanding, empathy, being truthful, ethical, sensible and levelheaded.  Not being a bully, selfish and an asshole.

There is a reasonably good possibility that about half the people reading this would tell me that they like Trump because he says what's on his mind, he tells it like he sees it and doesn't have a filter.  Well, sometimes it's OK to have a filter.  There was a time, not so long ago, when being an asshole wasn't cool.  If you were a shitty person and kept it to yourself, society was a better place because of it. 

I am the product of a lifetime of unintentional, prior influences and imprints.  Dig deep enough into my implicit biases and you'll likely catch a whiff of cold war.  So, get over it. 

In 2016 I considered Donald Trump to be a goof and a joke; not to be taken seriously.  While my life got along swimmingly with his policies during the first three years of his administration all of that changed with the COVID shit show of 2020.  In over his head, by the time the election rolled-around more than enough people had enough of the drama that I believe it cost him the election.

2024 was different.  In a disciplined fashion Donald Trump tapped-into working class anxieties and resentment over inflation and the general economy.  It doesn't matter a lick if I feel my world is doing better if a plurality of my countrymen do not. I've learned to be cognizant of this.  I can do better.  We can do better.

Donald Trump won the White House, the Senate and the House.  The Trifecta.  SCOTUS is icing on the cake.  Donald Trump is no goof or joke.  He brought home the first popular vote win for the GOP in two decades.  He is the real deal. He expanded the GOP base to broadly include a meaningful number of minority voters.  He deserves a great deal of credit for that.  Consequently, he has a ginormous mandate for change and an abundance of goodwill.

Speaking of which, political parties undergo generational change.  And my generation has been shuffled aside as there is no place or role for us any longer in what was previously known at the Party of Reagan.  Social media has been fertile ground for fourth grade caliber ridicule.  Being derisively called a NeoCon is apparently a new pejorative.  Who knew? 

None of the foregoing amounts to much.  Sticks and stones.  It is the loss of friends and acquaintances who have excommunicated one another over perceived grievances that is the real tragedy.  Perhaps this will heal with the passage of time.  We'll see.

In the fourth paragraph of this post I alluded to a feeling of relief.  A consequence of the election outcome is being relieved of the burden of party.  Doesn't matter which party either.  I'm done rolling that boulder up the hill.  I'm basking in the warming glow of something I find strangely liberating; and it is not my laptop.  My newfound independence is a second chance to look at the world with a clean slate.  Independence Day has come to November 6.

Meanwhile, I'm going to try to stand for something other than our base instincts. I'm capable of better.  Donald Trump won fair and square and there wasn't even a whiff of political violence as a consequence.  That speaks volumes.  So, I'm going to sit on my hands for a bit and wait for detailed policy proscriptions to materialize.  You know, stuff that will improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  Along with making the world a safer place.

Bring it on....

Don't Forecast The Election

Last week, and before I left for South Dakota for a vacation and escape from the election nonsense, an email from a neighbor showed-up asking for me to make sense of an October Market Recap he had received from his financial guy.  This was a lay-up for me and I notified my pal that I would be happy to oblige - after I had returned from my ringneck-chasing getaway.  

I emailed him last evening as my last task before going to bed bone-tired.  What follows is a distillation of what I shared:

Neighbor...

What you received from Mr. So And So, CFP® is a rather detailed recap of the investment market's out-performance for YTD 2024.  It is nicely summarized and annotated with supporting details.

Contrary to some of the political rhetoric we've been subjected-to in the run-up to the election is the fact that the US economy is on a tear in most all of the sectors that matter.  Inflation has returned to normal and I paid $2.77 last week at the Brussels BP for a tank of unleaded regular.  You needn't look any further beyond the same observations and additional stats your guy provided.  None of that data is imaginary and the markets reflect it.  You, myself and others similarly situated in the 'ownership class' (retired owners of stocks, bonds and real estate with little if any debt) benefit greatly from an economic cycle such as this.  Emancipated from raising and educating our children our focus turns-back to children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren - but without the demands of a day job.

Getting back to the markets, and pointing out something your financial guy did not address, is an interesting implication for tomorrow's election.  When the S&P 500 Index rises in the final three months before the election the incumbent party typically remains in office.  Conversely, a drop in the index has historically indicated that the opposition will claim victory.

In 12 out of the 15 presidential elections since 1926 the ruling party has benefited from a strong stock market performance in the three months leading up to the election and went on to win.  That is an 83% streak.  

While a streak such as this would signal a Harris win; a streak is nothing more than a streak.  Streaks can be broken and I happen to believe that this election is too close to call.  Even the betting markets are evenly divided tonite.

If I was still in the day job, and was communicating with my clients, I would be telling them something on this order:  'It is important to be mindful that the outcome of the election (whether it suits your personal politics or not) is not a reason to react emotionally.  That invites investment mistakes.  If you don't like the outcome of this election, there is a high probability you will be pleased with the mid-term elections in 2026.  This is because the party that loses the race for the presidency this year will likely win the House in two years putting a halt to the new President's legislative agenda.  That's just the way things happen to play-out most of the time. '

I went on the explain that polling suggests that neither party will hold a super-majority.  In other words there will be divided government much as the Founders intended.  This will require compromise.

So, as we watch the returns tonite we should remain mindful that our Constitution has survived 235 years.  This will not be the last election and if the people dislike the policies they get; they'll get around to changing them eventually.   Blah, blah, blah.

I closed with an admonition on a subject (I have blogged about many times) - that being the federal debt and deficit.  The budgets under both Trump and Biden have manifested unprecedented deficits.  Given the reality of record high employment and our country not being at war this aberration absolutely requires attention in the years ahead.

What I did not share is my skepticism over either candidate rising to this task.  So time will tell.

All I gotta say is it has been a terrific game to watch for the last 16 weeks.  Sudden Death Overtime?  Who knows?

Sometimes elections, investment markets and football, are a roll of the dice.

See you all on the flip side....

Purple Predicter

In the Republican primary election earlier this year Nikki Haley garnered 20% of the vote total here on the peninsula. Trump, Haley and DeSantis were on the ballot and even though Haley had previously withdrawn from the race she still garnered a fifth of the Republican vote.  I wonder if anyone on Team Trump has this on their radar screen.

Why, you ask?

Because the County of Door has correctly backed every presidential winner for almost three decades, including Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.  This deeply purple peninsula has picked the winning presidential candidate since 1996.

Is it something in the water?  More likely it's something in the population dynamic.

The year-round permanent population here is only about 30,000 individuals (give or take).  Naturally not all are voters.  But the population also holds title to the highest percentage of adults over the age of 65 of any county in Wisconsin.  Not in total numbers; but as a percentage of the total population.  There's a large number of retirees who live here permanently.  Not everyone wants to live in Florida.  Florida has cockroaches as big as your hand, termites, fire ants, boa constrictors, alligators, heat, humidity, mold and rot.  If you're paying attention to the news Florida has hurricanes and flooding.  Florida is also home to nutty people who want to dictate what you check out of the library.  No way would I choose to live there.  Nevertheless, I'd visit during the Christmas or Easter holidays because Florida is home to the National Naval Aviation Museum in Pensacola and isn't as much of a fever swamp that time of year.  But I digress.  

In my discussion groups - beside me - you'd find retirees that include a business executive, dentist, molecular biologist, naval architect, doctor, civil engineer, an arson/insurance fire investigator, sheriff deputy, shipyard worker, groundwater geologist, teacher, medical examiner, constitutional lawyer, fisheries biologist and much more.  The peninsula is sorta like the Bermuda Triangle of knowledge.  A ginormous retirement brain trust. Thoughtful people choose to make their home here.  Shoot, if I had a sail boat, motor cruiser or liked to fish I'd move here when I retired.  No matter where you live you'd be fifteen minutes from a boat launch or marina.

My unscientific and casual take on this is that my neighbors and acquaintances have productive, intellectual and political conversations and are willing to share thoughts and opinions.  The basis for what they believe doesn't come from an echo chamber.  Like I said - they're thoughtful.  They engage in civil discourse and disagree without being disagreeable.  I've never lived in a place like this before.  It agrees with me. 

So, getting back to Nikki Haley; the GOP primary vote count and the up-coming 2024 election have created conditions that might be interesting.  There is much anticipation over how things will play-out.  Trump lost in 2020 yet every single down-ballot republican was elected.  All of them.  And they were in the majority too.

After the November election Nikki Haley might just say, I told you so.  Time will tell.

I think this election is too close to call and if Trump wins not much changes for me.  If he loses my expectation is that most everything will go into Sudden Death Overtime. 

You can learn more about the phenomenon of this purple county here.

We got a game on people.  Exciting stuff.

It's The Economy, Stupid.

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers.  I've written about the subject several times over the years.

Last week the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by fifty basis points (half of a percentage point).  Mortgage rates are down.  Inflation has basically been beaten into submission having settled at historically normal levels.  Gasoline is below $3 a gallon in many locations.  Our nation is a net-exporter of petroleum and natural gas.  Unemployment remains low.  The financial markets are out-performing.  I look at the economic landscape thru the lens of a recovering financial advisor and happen to think that the fundamental economic picture is pretty darn good.

Nevertheless, former president Trump tells us we're basically an economic failed state.  His followers believe it too.  Polling data from the New York Times and Siena College reveals that only 2 percent of voters believe the economy is excellent.  21 percent call it good.  28 percent consider it fair; while nearly half, 49 percent, rated it poor.

I do not minimize the reality that some individuals and families find themselves in economic circumstances that are diminished.  Maybe they've struggled since the Great Recession of 2008 with the 2020 COVID-induced recession delivering a one-two punch.  Yet, clearly there is a perception problem; and it is a problem that the Democrats own and continue to struggle-with.  I happen to believe that this perception disconnect has its roots in something of an idealized view of where voters were in the pre-COVID years versus where they are today.

It is a fact that before COVID inflation and mortgage rates were lower.  Unemployment was slightly lower than today.  And, of course, all of that ended with the 2020 recession resulting in a ginormous spike in unemployment, negative economic growth and a crash in the financial markets.

Since then, and over the last four years, growth in household income has been higher year-over-year, the markets are at record highs and the US economy rivals any other similarly-advanced economy globally.

Kamala Harris needs to work on her economic messaging.

If she wants to win the election.

Skin In The Game

So here we are; several months since Joe Biden abdicated the throne and Vice President Harris and Governor Walz have turned the election campaign on it's head.  If you watch the polls the democrats have turned the tables in several battle ground states and possibly reversed the trend in others and nationally.  What I would give to be a fly on the wall in Trump or Harris campaign HQ.  But let's not get over our skis -  is this a sugar high, a honeymoon or an implosion?  No way to know for sure.  Besides,  polls have been sketchy the last couple-three national elections; and I happen to believe that the outcome remains a tossup.  So I want to speak to the subject of gambling, or wagering.  

I've touched-upon this subject from time to time; sometimes from the POV of a financial guy and sometimes outright humor.  Back in the first week of June I took a stab at a topic I had been reading-up on and listening about; a subject that I thought was maybe gonna gain some traction - that of actually wagering on US Elections.  With every passing week it seems to be gaining traction now that we have a real competitive campaign.

For some time government regulators with oversight on Wall Street have been trying to clamp down on growing election wagering in the US.  With a completely reconfigured presidential race a tsunami of trading on this fall's election has taken-off.  At the time of the publication of this post, traders (gamblers) favor Harris over Trump.

PredictIt, formerly a largely academic pursuit and now off-shored was witness in July to its busiest wagering volume reaching roughly 120 million contracts - a spike of more than 500% over June.  $1.1 billion has been bet on crypto-based Polymarket since June, according to Dune Analytics, and 88% of that has been political bets on the U.S. election.

Consequently, this has the increased attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) who has proposed rule-making that would expressly outlaw wagering of this sort with scattered support in the US Senate.

As a recovering financial guy with almost forty years in the wealth management biz I've seen more than my share of feeding frenzies in the equity, fixed-income, commodities, futures and other derivatives markets; and market bubbles, more often-than not, end badly.  After-which seasoned veterans, put on their boots, roll-up their sleeves, slip-on their autopsy gloves and sift thru the bloody detritus of mostly novice online traders who got themselves slaughtered chasing phantom profits.

Markets always correct.

Nevertheless, none of this is outlawed or banned.  Financial markets are regulated and there is ample opportunity for the unguided to squander their savings on dreams, brass rings or Pumpkins and Mice.  The CFTC needn't ban wagering on election outcomes as much as they might regulate them with reasonable guardrails just like any other market. 

The UK has grappled with their own tempest in a teapot with the revelation that some conservative members of parliament got caught placing bets on the timing of their recent snap election.  Did it impact the July 4th outcome?  Who knows?  Considering the level of outrage when this got found-out it's entirely possible.  Should politicians be barred from betting on elections?  Or allowed to do so at their own political peril?  

A week and a half ago, a federal judge cleared the way for Americans to place bets on the outcome of congressional elections via a prediction-market startup.  A ruling that may potentially expand further legalized wagers on elections in this country.

Wagering requires bettors to put their money where their mouth is.  Betting markets may be useful when politics are chaotic.  With skin in the game facts displace misinformation.  

We got a game-on folks....

Shorter Is Better

With 66 days remaining in this year's topsy-turvy presidential election campaign - last week I shared with The Missus how much I was enjoying the change in venue.  The absolute lightness to be found in a dramatically shortened campaign season.  Restricted to only a handful of months it has a decidedly European flavor to it.  Short and sweet.

Presidential campaigns nowadays seem to start the day following the last campaign and drag-out in a long, slow, bloated, slog.

This year some of my Trump-supporting friends have been grousing and grumbling about how Kamala Harris wasn't selected by means of a presidential primary.  Consequently, democratic voters have been somehow disenfranchised and her elevation to the candidacy has been a presidential coup.  Sour grapes.  Political parties make the rules.

Frankly, if the former president, and luckiest man on the planet, hadn't dodged an assassin's bullet the GOP would be faced with the same conundrum of selecting a candidate at the last moment.

What people have forgotten is that presidential primary elections are a relatively recent phenomenon.  Immediately following the ratification of our constitution a convention of state delegates chose electors to represent their interests in the Electoral College.  The top two vote-getters in the Electoral College became president and vice president.  This worked for America's first couple of elections; but the wheels came-off with the rise of political parties after Washington left office. 

After a messy 1800 election and runoff between Jefferson and Burr, in 1804 the 12th Amendment was ratified.  Congressional caucuses were then used to pick presidential and vice presidential candidates.

With the passage of time, party nominating conventions supplanted the congressional caucuses as the mechanism for selecting nominees.  This convention system with its smokey back rooms and party bosses persisted until the 1970s.

Following the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago both parties implemented reforms to allow voters a greater role in selecting nominees.  By 1976, roughly seventy percent of convention delegates were chosen by means of the primary election process.

By 1984, primaries had morphed into a form of grand colossus (think: Super Tuesday) where as many 40 to 60 percent of party delegates might be selected in one day. 

Naturally, when Joe Biden abdicated the throne on July 21, the campaign of Kamala Harris was restricted to less than four months.  Leaving this blogger to scratch his head and ponder why we don't do this all the time. Speaking for myself, I like a short sprint - not a long, protracted, bloated, boring, trudge that saps your interest.  You know, the same old shtick.

There are plenty of other world democracies that don't spend anywhere near the amount of time that we do on election campaigns.  French presidential races cannot begin until two weeks before the first round of voting.  In Japan it is twelve days.  The UK conducted a parliamentary election in six weeks this summer.

I think Harris is presently benefiting from a short campaign.  Yeah sure, Trump is pissed because someone moved his cheese at the last moment.  Nikki Haley saw this coming; was the Trump campaign asleep at the switch?  Hmm?  Nevertheless, this race remains a toss-up. 

Anyway, what if campaigns began after Memorial Day?  Or states held their primary on the same date?  What if we weren't subjected to Super PAC advertising ad-nauseam?  Throughout our country's history this process has continually evolved.  I think we've spent a sufficiently long-enough time in our rut and it's about time to extricate ourselves from the current primary mire.   A break-out with some open field running.  It might be good for all of us.

Just like removing a BAND-AID^®, you don't slowly pick at it.  You rip it off.  Because shorter is better.

We got a game-on.

You're Fired!

Last Sunday we got together with a couple of neighbors to grill out before the Graham Nash performance.

Naturally, our conversation touched briefly on politics.  My pal shared this.  He postulated that once the DNC concludes their party convention Trump is going to fire JD Vance. 

 

His theory is that Trump is gonna do something singularly Trumpian to shake up his campaign and retake the initiative from candidate Harris.

 

My response was how long before he fires his campaign team. 

 

Having noodled this around my brain for a few days I’m not so sure about firing the team vs. firing Vance. 

 

Considering the topsy-turvy electoral path of the past month maybe the GOP is poised for a coup and a reset?

 

Convention ends tomorrow.  Stay tuned.....

Saturday Night Live

I hear it's not going to happen.

But if it did, SNL would be SOOOO good...

 

Free Speech

It should come as no surprise that Vice President Kamala Harris has long been the target of racist and misogynistic online attacks as a consequence of her Black and South Asian ethnicity.  

As a candidate for president the gendered, sexualized and racial attacks aren't going away.  In some respects they've become worse.  In the absence of any personal restraint on the part of internet users combined with lackadaisical oversight by tech companies, the close to this election cycle will likely set a new standard for tastelessness.

Interesting to me is that of my 348 Face Book friends virtually everybody (on both sides of the aisle) have refrained from posting or reposting crude and vulgar content related to any candidate on their FB pages.  If anybody is talking politics they're going about it correctly;  sticking with policy differences, tasteful humor and witty sarcasm.  Personally, I avoid it.  If I have anything to say on politics I do it here because reading the blog is voluntary.  There is no faceless algorithm to foist it upon you.  If you're bothered or troubled about anything I publish;  don't come here.  But you already knew that.  Getting back to the subject of Face Book there are four acquaintances of mine who cannot seem to help themselves.

Moreover, the curious thing is that all four of these acquaintances have a great deal in common with me.  We're all within a year of each other in age, grew up in the same neighborhood, went to the same schools and for some the same church.  By all outward appearances they're upright citizens.  If you met them socially you'd find them personable and likeable.  Not a criminal amongst us.  But when it comes to the volatile mix of Face Book and political speech you might just think that from time-to-time they've lost their minds.

A couple of days following President Biden's abdication of the throne I spent a few moments  sampling of the Face Book pages for these four individuals and collected these screen shots.

Frankly, this sort of behavior is a turn-off.  And I don't think it's restricted to a conservative-leaning independent like me.  Many of my acquaintances who are Trump supporters likely share this sentiment.  Can you believe these are adults?

Are these four individual's under the impression that licentious posts are going to polish Donald Trump's brand?  Advance their cause?  Attract voters from the Big Fat Middle who are necessary to win an election?  It hasn't let-up either.

Thankfully it's a small number.  But Holy Cow, they've sure got a hard-on for sexualized hate speech. 

Meanwhile, last Wednesday, former President Trump questioned the racial identity of Vice President Kamala Harris during a tense appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists conference in Chicago.  He asked, Is she Indian or is she Black?  He falsely claimed that Harris, who has long identified as Black, attended a historically Black university, used to identify as Indian and then, all of a sudden, she made a turn, and she became a Black person. 

This is all part of the Trump campaign play book.  Skip the policy and dominate the media cycle.  Like I said earlier; looks like this election is game-on.

Pro Tip - Watch the Vegas Line and the odds-makers......

Idolatry

I've blogged on the subject previously and here we go again.

Last weekend former president Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt which has stoked chatter amongst his supporters that the adulterer, groper of women, liar, adjudicated sex offender,  convicted felon and whore mongerer is the messiah.  Chosen and sent by God to deliver our troubled nation from godless leftists.  Trending is a new term - GEOTUS - God-Emperor of the United States. 

At the RNC convention in Milwaukee, performer Lee Greenwood said, God saved Trump's life so he could be the next president.

Trump posted on Truth Social - It was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening.  We will FEAR NOT, but instead remain resilient in our Faith and Defiant in the face of Wickedness.

The Old Testament is a mixed bag on the subject.

Exodus 29:20 - God tells Moses to sanctify his brother as a priest by smearing blood on his right ear.  

Revelation 13:3 - tells us that a beast understood to be the Antichrist (Satan) heals from a head wound and is then idolized.

Between you and me I do not pretend to divine the Almighty's intentions on any of this.  I do not wear my faith and belief system on my sleeve.  I'm smart enough to understand why some believe otherwise.  Everyone is entitled to a belief system after-all.

What I know is that political violence is wicked and some folks need to pour themselves a big cuppa simmah-down.  A rally attendee was murdered and two others gravely wounded.  Donald Trump is the luckiest guy on the planet.  If he genuinely believes that God saved his life I pray that it brings him peace, comfort and and humility.

A Fine Kettle Of Fish

Of likely Scottish genesis the title of this post is said to have its origins when the fishing catch was cooked in a fish kettle and served as a picnic meal.  Sounds like a Door County fish boil; but I digress.   

After the feast all the leftover bones, heads and skin would be left in the kettle resembling a mess. 

It is also the name of the current affairs class I help coordinate for the Learning In Retirement program at the local community college.

There is also a gathering on most Friday mornings of locals who meet at the offices for the Door County Community Foundation.  

You're probably scratching your head wondering, where is he going with this brain fart?

I've learned a great deal.  Covering a lot of ground I've covered much new subject matter.  I've learned about things I did not know before and become a better listener.  I still hold opinions.  A few of my opinions have changed.  Most have not.  A few of my opinions have become stronger.  Through both of these venues I've learned much and made many new friends - most of whom share a differing point of view or political opinion. We also share a common trait.

Respect.

It is sad to lose a friendship over a differing point of view or opinion.  And it is joy to maintain friendships and make new friends because it is OK to have differing views and be okay with each other.

No echo chamber.

Lesson learned.