Wilderness Of Mirrors

"Wilderness of mirrors" is a phrase used to describe a place where reality is not real, and everything is a reflection of a distant motive, nation, or ideology. It can also refer to a landscape where double agents and bad information are planted, and corruption is the base state.  

It's a cool phrase and I think I first heard it while watching a British series featuring spooks from MI6  and the FSB on streaming television.

A roomful of mirrors would be very confusing or disorienting making it quite difficult to distinguish between truth and illusion, between competing versions of reality

James Jesus Angleton, the CIA chief of counterintelligence from 1954 to 1975, used the phrase to describe the Soviet bloc's use of disinformation to confuse and split the West. Angleton may have taken the phrase from the poem Gerontion by T.S. Eliot, with whom he corresponded while editing the literary magazine Furioso at Yale. 

The phrase has since become common in spy novels and historical writing about espionage.

Just like Face Book....

Whitetail Deer Identification Guide

 

 

Today is the gun deer opener here in Wisconsin.

If you find yourself surfing around Facebook.

Be sure to look for this handy deer identification guide.

Print it-off for all your pals at deer camp....

Voodoo Economics

If your lord and savior is the former guy read no further as this post may possibly upset you. Which is not my intent. As it is, I’m likely going to be derided as an elitist by certain of my friends anyway.  Nevertheless, this real-life illustration of magical economic thought is worthy of sharing.

 

It is not fake.

 

For some people this is their belief system. Economic and otherwise.

 

This conversation took place last weekend in the context of an economic discussion on a closed Facebook group.  It began with my supposition that the current economic picture (by most metrics) put the economy on-par with where it stood pre-pandemic.  Sure, I know it’s behind in some areas and ahead in others - but for the stuff that really matters basically par for the course. 

Heretofore I made no mention-of, or couched anything I posted in a political context. I was just sticking with the data. It did not take long for the worm to turn.  

To set the stage, a commentator had previously advanced the notion that the former guy’s economy was the best ever in all of history.  Naturally, this is a subjective conclusion. I did not challenge it as the pre-pandemic economy under the former guy was in-fact doing swell. Between you and me this blogger was enjoying the ride.  

 

Nevertheless, I suggested that if something is held-out as the best in history - as bold a conclusion as that should be supported by data.

 

Alas, the commentator reached for a bridge too far adding (without any supporting evidence) that under the former guy's administration gasoline had also fallen to $.99 a gallon.

Said commentator lives in Sturgeon Bay and I live close-by.  I should think that I would have taken notice of 99 cent gasoline in 2020.  But I digress.

I did point-out that when the economy cratered in early 2020 the price of crude oil plummeted as global travel dried-up.  Gasoline prices tracked downward as expected.  Not likely to $.99/gal - but prices did fall considerably.

To which the commentator suggested that it was the former guy who negotiated cheap crude oil prices thereby keeping gasoline prices low for all of us.

So there you have it. What I learned about supply-demand pricing of fungible commodities is of little utility.  All you have to do is simply negotiate a lower price for a globally-traded commodity such as crude oil - and voilà - $1.50 gasoline.  Presumably, that is the price at the pump so state and federal taxes are included.  All-in the actual refinery price is  much lower.

I suppose with Apple Inc. trading in the neighborhood of $143 a share (NASDAQ: AAPL) the former guy should be able to negotiate for us a cheap double digit price around $72 a share?  

 

Just kidding. You readers are smarter than that. You know I'm being snarky.

 

But on a serious note it is clear to me that in some circles the belief system is dismissive of labyrinthine and complicated financial markets. An article of faith suggesting that only a single key individual's negotiating skills is all that is needed is easier to digest. And just like magic - low commodity prices materialize. As a recovering financial guy I have to wonder how the commentator (above) navigates saving and planning for retirement. And $3.00+ gasoline. 

 

This is a head-scratcher for sure.

I'll spare you readers the rest of the painful discussion thread. When pressed for supporting evidence only argumentative opinions were forthcoming and the comments basically ended with the accusation that I was a Biden supporter.  That, my friends, is an intellectual cop-out. A lame deflection used by someone bereft of facts.

 

Nonetheless, it was a fascinating thought exercise while it lasted - concluded with lazy thinking.  

 

The late great PT Barnum had a term for those who embrace such belief systems.

 

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There is a population of conservative, center-right and independent-minded voters who place a high value on facts and the truth. Marginalized because they do not demonstrate sufficient fealty and obeisance to the former guy - exile is their cross to bear.

My Kingdom for a Leader

From time-to-time I have resorted to the use of this platform to give voice to my thoughts and opinions about Donald Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis.  I even generated and updated a chronological timeline of his litany of lies and excuses.  His own words.

Anyway, I recently did something I ordinarily wouldn’t do.  I opined on the matter in a comment I made on another individual’s Facebook page.  I implied that Trump’s obfuscation and delays caused the pandemic to worsen in its spread and that Trump was a con man who had blood on his hands.  Consequently, another friend replied to my comment:  the blood on his hands thing is bullshit and partisan and too easily fought at home on keyboards.  Government at all levels is not a nimble instrument.   

Fair-enough.

My first observation is that it is refreshing to share a difference of opinion respectfully.  My second observation is that nobody called me out for calling Trump a con man. In the absence of any objection I conclude there to be general agreement on that point.  Thirdly, I would agree that governments are not nimble.  They are vast bureaucracies.  As for the blood on his hands assertion – I dunno.  Perhaps my provocateur personality missed a guardrail.  Nevertheless, someone bears responsibility for failing to act on the threat in a timely manner so I will draw-upon a comparison I have used previously.   

Both the US and South Korea had evidence of Covid-19 around January 20^th.  The first deaths for each country were registered in late February.  At that point the course of the pandemic for each nation diverged.  South Korea responded proactively and decisively with large-scale testing, contact tracing and quarantining.  I published a post about it here.  To-date South Korea has suffered the loss of 220 lives without more than a dozen in any given day.   Back here in the homeland the situation is dramatically different.  Presently, about 2,000 of our countrymen are dying each and every day with the total topping more than 23,000 total lives lost by the time I retired last nite. To be clear, the US is much larger than South Korea and the raw numbers can be expected to be larger. But South Korea flattened their curve quickly by means of acting-upon the threat quickly.   

Last weekend any number of mainstream news sources published, broadcast or posted evidence of the early warnings and alarms coming from the highest levels of our not-so-nimble government.  It is unlikely that all of that reporting is fantasy.   My point is that when the alarm bells sounded they went unheeded by Donald Trump.  I wrote about that too – how Trump had plenty of time to tweet, play golf and hold rallies throughout January and February.  All the while he downplayed and lied about the gathering storm.   

In my former day job there was a name for that - willful blindness. As a general rule it applied to turning a blind eye to money-laundering and fraud - not encouraging the spread of disease and death.  Convicted of this crime - financial advisors have received prison sentences.  The product of Donald Trump's willful blindness has been lives and fortunes lost.  Much of it likely preventable in the face of prompt and decisive action.  Marinate on that thought - lives and treasure lost.  Much of it avoided by prompt and decisive action.   

I also predicted that Trump apologists would mount an effort to rewrite the historical narrative of his bungled delays.  And now - every afternoon - there is a self-congratulatory circle jerk glossing-over a rather extensive trail of bread crumbs chronicling Trump’s inaction and dismissal of scientific advice from public health experts and even his own advisors.  

In all fairness to the President - he did not cause Covid-19.  However, he is responsible and should be held to account for the months of delay (deliberately self-inflicted loss of nimbleness) from our government and for his obfuscation and blame-shifting.  

And the lies. 

Trump continues to lie.  It is stunning that Donald Trump is such a habitual liar that he is incapable of being honest – especially when honesty would serve his own interests.   

So, perhaps the term:  Blood on his hands is too provocative.  Let’s settle on this: The buck stops here and grown men take responsibility for their actions. Or lack thereof. Responsible men tell the truth.   

We see evidence every day of Trump's dysfunctional behavior and many of us have become immunized to his egregious lies and blaming.  If you want to see it conveniently summarized in one place you might consider reading a piece by David Frum published last week in The Atlantic.

Frum is a former speech writer for George W. Bush.  He authored the first book about The Bush presidency written by a former member of the administration. He is also credited with inspiring the phrase ‘axis of evil’ in Bush's 2002 State of the Union address.   

As the revisionists of history continue to spin an alternate reality Frum’s fact-filled recitation reminds us of the many ways Trump failed to protect us.

Stay-tuned.....

Quote Of The Day

On this day in history, 2016 this prescient boast was uttered...

We are in a bubble; it could be an ugly bubble; when they burst it’s not a good thing.  We’re going to go into a massive recession. But I always say, if I’m president it’s not going to happen.

-Donald Trump 

Hat Tip - Facebook Memories