Don't Look Up!

Earth safe from 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4!

Hey, Space Fans!

Happy Monday and we're starting off the week with a big (think huge space rock wize) weight off our minds as astronomers just dramatically reduced the potential threat risk of the newfound asteroid 2024 YR4 down to miniscule odds. The asteroid briefly set a record for the highest threat level ever, at a 1-in-32 chance of hitting Earth in 2032.

"The NASA JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) now lists the 2024 YR4 impact probability as 0.00005 (0.005%) or 1-in-20,000 for its passage by Earth in 2032," Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and creator of the Torino scale exclusively told Space.com. "That's impact probability zero folks!"

Whew!

Don't Look Up

In the unlikely event that you haven't got enough things on your mind to worry about; here is a tidbit that crossed my news feed recently.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 of last year and is estimated to be 196 feet wide - about the size of the Statue of Liberty and 27 million miles distant. If it were to strike planet earth there is a high probability that it could result in significant damage; likely similar to the 1908 event which flattened a vast forested area in Tunguska Siberia.

Yesterday NASA announced that this chunk of galactic rock  had an estimated 3.1% chance of impacting earth on December 22, 2032 - a 1 in 42 chance of collision.

It is useful to note that the probability of an impact can change as additional data is collected.  Asteroid 99942 Apophis was initially considered at high risk of colliding with earth; and with continued monitoring these worries were ruled out. 

NASA and other space agencies are actively monitoring 2024 YR4 as the asteroid is currently rated as a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale ranking this as a close-enough encounter with a 1% or greater chance of impact capable of causing localized destruction.  Who knew?  As events unfold the asteroid's trajectory and probability of impact will be updated.

If the impact probability remains significant there are further options.  NASA could attempt to deflect the object by means of altering its trajectory.  NASA mounted a successful DART mission in 2022 to test the feasibility of this as a defense strategy. 

With a 3.1% probability of an impact this is worth paying attention.  Of course there is a much higher probability that Elon Musk will dismantle and defund NASA, furlough all of the agency's slothful and ungrateful workers, disappear the NASA.gov website, strike the name from all of the empty buildings and for good measure supplant it with his own company.

In which case I recommend you interview a contractor who can construct for you a sturdy bunker.  

You can learn more about the science of tracking a predicting all of these near-earth objects that keep you up at night.