Polezniy*

Astronauts from the International Space Station (ISS) safely returned to earth today.  This tidbit has been floating around on the cesspool of Face Book misinformation.

The truth is easy people. And as AI Technology evolves it might possibly inject thought into social media. Thanks to the ChatGTP and other AI sources it takes only a couple of taps on a device to reveal the facts. 

Besides, do the people that re post these lame and lazy memes understand they're largely regurgitating content served-up by Russian and Communist Red Chinese troll farms?

You’re welcome…..

NASA astronauts Sunita “Suni” Williams and Barry “Butch” Wilmore returned safely to Earth today, March 18, 2025, after an extended mission aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Their mission, initially planned for eight days to test Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft, was prolonged to over nine months due to technical issues with the Starliner capsule. Consequently, their return was facilitated by SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission, which successfully splashed down off the coast of Florida.    

During their extended stay, political figures, including former President Donald Trump and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, alleged that the Biden administration had neglected efforts to expedite the astronauts’ return. However, these claims have been refuted by NASA officials, who emphasized that the astronauts were safe throughout their mission and that the delays were due to technical challenges rather than political decisions.   

Therefore, the assertion that President Biden abandoned the astronauts is unfounded. The delays in their return were primarily caused by technical issues with the Starliner spacecraft, and NASA ensured the astronauts’ safety and well-being during their extended mission. 

*Translation - Useful Idiot
 

FOIA

The DOGE has penetrated the IRS, Social Security and Medicare.

 

The DOGE now has access to all of my financial info and personal identifiers. I did not consent-to nor authorize Elon Musk’s access to this privileged and confidential information.

 

The DOGE has not disclosed what they are going to do with this information; or how they will protect me from identity theft or fraud.

 

Nobody has been able to explain how Elon Musk’s possession of this information makes me safer, more prosperous, improves my lot in life or makes my government more efficient. To what purpose is it they have my bank account and routing numbers, brokerage accounts, charities, medical records and more?

 

Come to think of it, if my former employer allowed a data breach on this order of magnitude they would be out of business.

 

 

So, last Friday I figured what the heck; I'll make an inquiry under the Freedom Of Information Act.  Maybe I can ascertain what DOGE has on me.  I figure there are three possible responses:

 

1. We have nothing.

2. We have something and here it is

3. Get lost.

 

An attorney pal tells me that all of the FOIA officers at federal agencies have been terminated; but to let him know if I get a response that is other than claimed exemption from disclosure.  A retired acquaintance informs me that FOIAs are the language of government procurement; that they have been for many many years.  Furthermore, they often go unanswered.  And a non-reply is standard and customary.

  

Stay-tuned.

 

And if anybody can answer paragraph four I'm all ears.  Even the most brilliant of my MAGA friends cannot.

DOGE - American Style

If you think giving DOGE access to all your tax records is no big deal, you are suffering from a lack of imagination.

Theater At The DOGE

I asked ChatGPT: 

How much budget savings so far from Musk's Department of Government Efficiency?

As of March 2, 2025, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), let by Elon Musk, reported the cancellation of 128 contracts recently, resulting in approximately $60 million in savings.  Since Its inception, DOGE reports terminating over 3,000 wasteful contracts.

However, analyses by external organizations have raised questions about these reported savings.  An NPR investigation found discrepancies in DOGE's claimed savings, suggesting potential overstatements. 

Additionally, data from DOGE's "Wall of Receipts" indicates that nearly 40% of the cancelled contracts are expected to yield no actual savings. 

In specific instances, DOGE identified inefficiencies in software licensing.  For example, the General Services Administration (GSA) reportedly held 37,000 WinZip licenses for 13,000 employees, leading to a claimed $9.6 million in savings after addressing the surplus.

While DOGE reports significant contract cancellations and some specific savings, external evaluations suggest that the actual budgetary impact may be less substantial than claimed.

Despite these efforts, the reported savings represent a fraction of DOGE's ambitious goal to cut $2 trillion in federal spending by July 4, 2026. 

The notion that Elon Musk and his government efficiency apparatchiks can bring down the debt is a tall order.  To be clear, I take no issue with rooting-out waste fraud and abuse; just give the chainsaw schtick and lame theatrics a rest.  

At this particular moment in time our outstanding debt stands at $36 trillion (give or take).  Closing a handful of government agencies and laying-off government workers makes for great theater but it isn't gonna get the job done.  The savings are much, much too small to achieve the stated goal. Anybody who actually believes nibbling around the edges like this will fix the real problem is engaging in what I call magical wishful thinking.

You see, just like a household budget that has gotten out of control, fixing this problem is going to require hard work and making difficult choices.  

You're probably thinking - Like what?

Like raising taxes, cutting defense spending or reforming Social Security and Medicare.  Or all of the foregoing.  These are unpopular choices for good reason.  Nobody wants to do them.  They're like going to the theater to watch a crappy production.  Nobody wants to do that.  The people demand good theater.  Bread and circuses if you will.  I might be wrong, but I happen to wonder if the current collection of clowns places a higher priority on theater and spectacle than hard work.

So, are we going to continue to be witness to the slow roll reality TV performance or get serious about fixing the real problem for the next couple of generations.

Anyone care to make a friendly wager?

Don't Look Up

In the unlikely event that you haven't got enough things on your mind to worry about; here is a tidbit that crossed my news feed recently.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 of last year and is estimated to be 196 feet wide - about the size of the Statue of Liberty and 27 million miles distant. If it were to strike planet earth there is a high probability that it could result in significant damage; likely similar to the 1908 event which flattened a vast forested area in Tunguska Siberia.

Yesterday NASA announced that this chunk of galactic rock  had an estimated 3.1% chance of impacting earth on December 22, 2032 - a 1 in 42 chance of collision.

It is useful to note that the probability of an impact can change as additional data is collected.  Asteroid 99942 Apophis was initially considered at high risk of colliding with earth; and with continued monitoring these worries were ruled out. 

NASA and other space agencies are actively monitoring 2024 YR4 as the asteroid is currently rated as a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale ranking this as a close-enough encounter with a 1% or greater chance of impact capable of causing localized destruction.  Who knew?  As events unfold the asteroid's trajectory and probability of impact will be updated.

If the impact probability remains significant there are further options.  NASA could attempt to deflect the object by means of altering its trajectory.  NASA mounted a successful DART mission in 2022 to test the feasibility of this as a defense strategy. 

With a 3.1% probability of an impact this is worth paying attention.  Of course there is a much higher probability that Elon Musk will dismantle and defund NASA, furlough all of the agency's slothful and ungrateful workers, disappear the NASA.gov website, strike the name from all of the empty buildings and for good measure supplant it with his own company.

In which case I recommend you interview a contractor who can construct for you a sturdy bunker.  

You can learn more about the science of tracking a predicting all of these near-earth objects that keep you up at night. 

Begging The Obvious

How Many Federal Worker Resignations Would Be a Lot?

Seventy-five thousand have submitted resignations as part of Elon Musk’s “fork in the road” offer. 

But 150,000 voluntarily leave every year anyway.

Feel free to parse the data here. 

EDIT To Add:

A federal judge in Massachusetts allowed the Trump administration's bid to offer "deferred resignations" to federal workers who voluntarily leave government service to continue and lifted a previous court order pausing the program's deadline.

Shortly after the ruling, Office of Personnel Management spokesperson McLaurine Pinover said in a statement that the office was "pleased" with the court's decision and that the deferred resignation program was closed as of 7 p.m. Wednesday. Roughly 75,000 federal workers have accepted the offer to leave their government positions, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. The White House had expected as many as 200,000 workers to accept the offer.

 

DOGE Update

In the aftermath of the inauguration of Donald Trump we've witnessed the exiling of DOGE Bro Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk's waffling on his promise of $2 trillion of government spending cuts.   

I have two DOGE updates:  Privacy and Theatrics.

Last week we learned that a federal judge halted access to the US Treasury's payment systems by Elon Musk's team of DOGE apparatchiks. The order came in response to a lawsuit filed by 19 state attorneys general accusing the president of failing to faithfully execute the nation's laws when he granted DOGE unfettered access to the federal payments system.

The White House had previously defended the DOGE's access as READ-ONLY, yet in the ruling the judge specifically invoked the Watergate Era Privacy Act of 1974, which states:  no agency shall disclose any record which is contained in a system of records by any means of communication to any person or to another agency.  

Let me begin by making abundantly clear I'm all about rooting out waste, fraud and abuse.  I embrace audits that adhere to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. I believe in accountability. I place a high value on transparency. I hold close Reagan's admonition to Trust, But Verify.  Privacy is at the top of my list; which happens to be why I applaud the court ruling.

I would not voluntarily release my tax returns, charitable contributions, investment account and banking information, social security records, medicare details (including health records) or any other personal identifiers or privileged information to anyone without my prior written consent and assurance this information would be safeguarded.  

Rooting out fraud while simultaneously erecting appropriate firewalls to protect the integrity of a citizen's privileged personalty are not mutually exclusive. In my previous life my employer guarded this same information on behalf of their clients as if it were the Crown Jewels.  A security breach was always on the short list of of existential risks facing any financial services firm.  

To-wit, a couple of my MAGA pals think I'm nuts.  I'm overreacting.  Between you and me, for a couple of guys who howl at every opportunity about their impeccable conservative credentials; privacy ranks close to the bottom of priorities.

Go figure.  

Considering that Mr. Musk hasn't passed senate review or approval, has not received a security clearance, issued written ethics guidelines, or defined for anybody what he and his team intend to do with this data; naturally many of us have concerns.  Will they safeguard your identity?  Share it with whomever they please?  Retain it indefinitely?  Sell it?  Blackmail people with it? 

The question to you, dear readers, is the defense of personal information unreasonable?  

Would YOU voluntarily release the foregoing to Elon Musk without reservation?

Ponder that.

Meanwhile, DOGE has dismantled a Federal agency - USAID.  I've substituted a WIKI web link as the official .Gov website has been disappeared.  Meanwhile the name of the agency has been stricken from the building.  

Image - NBC

To be clear, the loss of USAID has no direct impact on my life so I don't have a dog in this fight.  Although I wonder if this signifies that we've thrown-in the towel on soft-power influence in response to stuff like Communist Red China's Belt and Road initiative, or North Korean and Soviet designs on African natural resources. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, I want to highlight the messaging power of what is known in political vernacular as a Play to the Base*  

Both Democrats and Republicans engage in these dramatic flourishes; and in this instance Elon Musk is championed for slaying the Great White Whale of foreign aid corruption.  Apologies for the Herman Melville metaphor but Trump is a master of this sort of theater.  

Consider this:

As crazy as it sounds opinion polling suggests that a plurality of Americans believe anywhere from 25 to 31 percent of the entire federal budget is foreign aid.  Wasteful fraud and abuse.  Every last damn dollar going to ungrateful heathens.  Naturally, that belief is fallacious because it is opinion and not fact.  US foreign aid (economic, nutrition, health and military) has historically hovered around 1% of the entire US budget; with USAID a small part of that total.  I've blogged about this before.

2023 aid managed by USAID totaled about $40 billion. You and I would likely agree that this sounds like a king's ransom to an average American; correct?  Yet in the grand scheme of our federal budget it is pocket change in the government's couch cushions.

If you unpack the numbers in the context of the entirety of the federal budget the savings amounts to 2% of Elon Musk's $2 trillion savings boast. 

Considering the context of erasing an entire agency; and assuming Washington never feeds another hungry Sub-Saharan child, vaccinates any heathens suffering an epidemic or offers any similar disaster aid these savings become basically permanent.  I take no issue that they are savings.  They are permanently exceedingly small.  

Even so, in the eyes of Trump supporters Musk is a Giant Killer.  

The melodrama of sweeping furloughs of slothful and ungrateful government workers, the erasure of an entire agency along with the trope of chiseling the name from the facade of the empty building is as close as you can get to modern-day angry Jesus giving the money changers the heave-ho from the temple.  

The theatrics are priceless.

So, let's agree this scalp in Musk's belt in only the first three weeks of the administration is yeoman's work. Or is it like the Battle of the Greasy Grass?  Spoiler Alert: The plains Indians took many scalps and still lost the war.

Ask yourself this:

Is the DOGE willing to hunt and scalp the prize 800 pound gorilla?

Or the administration to settle on collecting some small scalps for Reality TV* and forfeit the war?

Only time will tell.

Pro Tip Alert!  Be sure to stock-up on popcorn and adult beverages.  Both a Budget Reconciliation and the Debt Ceiling are in the on-deck circle.  I'm told it's gonna be easy peasy as Trump controls both Houses of Congress.

 

Doge - American Style

Doge - Venetian Italian for Duke - the highest official of the Republic of Venice.  Spanning the 8th to 18th centuries, more than a thousand years, the Doge was the sovereign ruler of the Venetian State.  

The palace of the Doge is famous for its flamboyant gothic architecture and its Great Council Chamber which houses possibly the largest oil on canvas painting in the world:  The Glory of Paradise by Jacopo Tintoretto.  As the primary residence of the Doge of Venice the palace was the physical manifestation of this supreme sovereign authority.

It is fitting that billionaire oligarchs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed sovereigns of the incoming Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE.  Of course, lacking the authority of a real government department there is no supreme authority.  

Sigh. 

Trump's transition team tells us that Musk and Ramaswamy are going to solve our country's debt problem. The DOGE is going to reduce the government's power, slash its workforce and crack-down on waste, fraud and abuse.  The sovereign oligarca announced they intend to reduce the federal budget by nearly thirty percent ($2 trillion).  So far, the chatter has been largely about cuts without much bandwidth devoted to a single ducat of additional revenue or investment in efficiency.  

Sure, I know it's early in the game and the president elect has yet to be sworn into office.  As a consequence I am resigned to the notion that for the present I will be subject to random dictum from Ramaswamy and Musk highlighting: The Usual Bill Of Fare.  Pledging to battle waste, fraud and abuse in Washington is as old as the hills.  Having been trotted-out with incessant frequency as a campaign promise by both sides it has become tread worn.  This spent refrain has become wearily uninspired.  It is tiresome.

Where to begin?  Try to stay with me as we take a deeper dive in the numbers. 

I've taken a run at this stuff before and it all comes down to money coming in (revenue) and money going out (expenses).  Nuanced by what is non-discretionary versus discretionary.  With a dose of old-fashioned politics thrown-in for good measure. 

The revenue side of the ledger includes a couple of large contributions; namely individual income taxes (about $2.2 trillion) and payroll taxes (about $1.6 trillion).  Smaller are corporate income taxes (about $420 billion) and various duties and tariffs, sales, estate and excise taxes (roughly $228 billion).  For the 2023 fiscal year money-in totaled $4.4 trillion+.

The president-elect has promised to reduce individual and corporate income taxes by at least $5 trillion over 10 years; reducing the money coming-in.  He has also promised substantial new tariffs on imports; although no estimates have been revealed for these tax increases.

Social Security and Medicare would be difficult to cut as Trump has promised he would not.  Nevertheless, both programs are living on borrowed time.  Without additional revenues and changes to the retirement formula, the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are already under stress from an aging population.  They will run out of money in 2033 and 2036 respectively.  This means that current retirees will experience a significant cut to their benefits anyway.  Trump's promise to end taxes on Social Security would accelerate the arrival of these cuts.

On the expense side of the ledger the three largest non-discretionary expenditures include the fore-mentioned Social Security and Medicare, federal civilian and military retirement and veteran benefits.  Total non-discretionary spending for 2023 was $3.8 trillion. 

There is an additional $659 billion of net interest (give or take) on the outstanding national debt.  It stands alone; but added to the non-discretionary component of the federal budget gets us to a grand total of $4.5 trillion.

What's left?  Discretionary spending of $1.7 trillion.  Included in this category is defense and roughly $9 trillion in non-defense spending.

Non-discretionary and discretionary explained

Non-discretionary programs are deemed mandatory spending which means funding doesn't require passage of an annual appropriation by Congress.  By example: if the DOGE Bros want to reduce Social Security, Medicare, federal retirement benefits (military and civilian) Congress would have to pass legislation reducing or defunding these benefits.  

There is net interest on the national debt -  almost $700 billion.  The credit-worthiness of our nation hinges on our promise to pay our debts.  I don't believe the DOGE Bros would recommend defaulting on the debt or devaluing our currency putting their own wealth at great peril.

On the discretionary side of the spending ledger the DOGE Illuminati have tweeted about unsupported billions upon billions of defense payments that cannot be tracked or audited. I'll not argue there isn't waste, fraud and abuse or other similar leakage in the defense budget; but not enough to reduce the federal budget by 30 percent.  I suppose Musk and Ramaswamy might recommend that Congress kill the F-35 program.  Alas, there is that nagging matter of Congress, national security and jobs. 

What's left? 

That leaves a grab-bag of leftovers the DOGE can submit to Congress and the President for elimination and defunding.  In the grab-bag is found Assistance to Individuals (namely nutritional and healthcare programs), transfers to states (Medicaid coverage for poor people, education, roads, bridges, highways, ports, airports and other infrastructure), National Parks, the National Weather Service, arts funding (public broadcasting); you get the drift.  

Of course, in the grand scheme of things, this grab-bag of leftovers doesn't even come close to scratching the surface of reducing the federal budget by thirty percent.  And here's the catch; a considerable portion of the grab-bag is decidedly popular with much of the public.  Defunding it would result in a cascade of serious budget shortfalls for the states leaving all the governors and the people very grumpy.  

The challenge for Trump and the DOGE is that a 10,000 foot view of the discretionary side of the federal budget reveals that it is just two things - military and defense; including a vast health and social insurance program that comes with it; and everything else.  Compared to defense, the rest of the discretionary budget is much more transparent because average Americans are witness almost on a daily basis to weather forecasting, highways, air traffic control, public broadcasting, national parks and monuments.  They cost relatively little money in a ginormous federal budget and are generally liked.

I readily admit I struggle with coming-across as slightly snarky about quirky oligarchs like Musk and Ramaswamy; they're billionaires after-all.  Who among us actually believe they are sincerely empathetic to the needs and wants of ordinary Americans?  How many of you think they relish the attention of the Trump reality show?   These juxtapositions mean they have to work harder at candor and authenticity if they want to be taken seriously and actually add value to the incoming administration.

If the DOGE only looks at cutting the budget their task may become virtually impossible as it would result in a significant disruption of services average Americans have come to expect from government.  The DOGE must explore creative initiatives that require investment in efficiencies and alternative sources of revenue and think big.  They need to go after the big money to make a historic splash. 

I'll let you in on a secret:  They need to shift that thing we refer to as an 800 pound gorilla.  They need to look to Social Security and Medicare - the root cause of our budget woes.  The subject politicians are so loathe to speak-of that they tip toe and shrink from it like timid sissies.   

I am not being snarky - if Elon and Vivek put their thinking caps on and put their minds to meaningful reform of both of these programs with a view to securing their future for the next couple of generations it would be earthshaking and enshrine their boss in history.  Who knows, I might even become a believer.

To be clear this would be a heavy lift.  Politically-fraught too.  The last president to pull it off was Ronald Reagan.

I wish them well as President-elect Trump will be a lame duck president; with effectively only a couple of years to implement meaningful change.   Which may partially explain why only a few days ago the richest man in the world is now walking-back his boast of $2 trillion budget cuts.    

There is enough meat on this bone there is a high probability of another couple-three blog posts to do it justice.  And since it is very early in the game there is ample time for bonafide policy to evolve and unfold.  Detailed policy which will improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  And perhaps make the world a safer place.

Of course, There is time for additional hedging and moving of goal posts; so stay tuned.

Cheers!