I had very low expectations and because it is in my personal enlightened self-interest that President Trump be successful I was hoping the president would not come across as falling under the thrall of a masterful East German KGB operative. I've been pondering yesterday's summit in Alaska overnight and this morning and have a few observations.
An American President applauds an indicted war criminal and ruthless assassin for the whole world to see.
Based on the press conference, Donald Trump got played again.
No ceasefire. None of the promised harsh sanctions. Nothing accomplished. Trump was too smitten to put Putin in his place and instead elevated Putin’s status on the world stage.
He’s so easy to manipulate with a few compliments. It’s pathetic and nationally embarrassing.
It is fascinating to me how what goes around comes around. Again and again. I first blogged about Russian meddling as long ago as 2017. And here, and here, and here and finally here.
When I started blogging further about the pro-Putin caucus, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other fringe GOP sympathizers of the Russian dictator it cost me a couple of relationships. Those posts are all still out there and easy to find using the search tool (upper left corner) or the tags in the left margin.
Maybe there's something to it after-all. A guy that knows more about it than I do is certainly speaking out.......
Honestly, I should hope there's nothing to any of this. But it sure makes you think...
The Cliff Notes for everyone watching these episodes.
Last Friday's Oval Office meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky was ostensibly intended to discuss peace negotiations concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to finalize a natural resources agreement. However the meeting devolved into a heated exchange with Trump accusing Zelensky of being ungrateful and risking global conflict by not pursuing peace with Russia. Vice President JD Vance criticized Zelensky for discussing policy matter publicly, leading to an abrupt end to the meeting without a signed agreement.
Naturally, the incident drew significant attention both here and abroad with numerous world leaders expressing support for Zelensky and criticizing President Trump's approach. Leaders from countries such as Canada, Norway, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and Moldova condemned Trump's remarks and reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia's invasion.
Given the contentious nature of the meeting, the choreographed timing of Vance's entry into the fray gives the appearance of not merely a theatrical performance, but a planned public setup. The first thing that came to mind was the boardroom scene of the Final Episode following another lame season of The Apprentice. I digress.
The lack of any substantive outcomes and subsequent international reaction seems to imply that the meeting had significant implications beyond just the political theater. Precisely what they are remains to be revealed. Is Trump ten moves ahead in a three dimensional chess match; or is he simply chaotic? You pick.
Nonetheless, I sort of saw it coming; like a slow moving train wreck. There were earlier signals from Secretary Hegseth, the US joining both North Korea and Russia in the vote at the United Nations (China abstained), along with Trump's parroting of Kremlin talking points. I shared with a couple of pals that I figured Trump was going to orchestrate things in a way that Putin would get the whole shebang in the end. Time will tell.
Does this suggest we've signaled to the world that we're done with 70+ years of transatlantic alliances; trading all of it for an alliance with a ruthless blood-soaked gangster like Vladimir Putin and his rapidly failing Russian state?
Or was this a garden-variety Mafiosi protection racket? Listen-up youse. Give us your raw earth minerals, or your dry-cleaning shop, izza gonna burn down, see.
Why does Trump have a hard-on for Putin?
Why isn't Putin being held to account?
Does Zelensky understand a bad deal is better than a good war?
Judging from the reaction in the cesspool called Face Book, the base is loving the red meat. Of course the base has also turned a blind eye, or loves, (you pick) the forcible abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. Similarly, supporters of Ukraine were quick to post their own collection of cut and paste unoriginal memes. Although I didn't note anyone volunteering to send their children or grandchildren over there to join the fight.
It's too soon and uncertain to know where this takes us. Although for the first time this year I watched all the Sunday morning talking heads on both sides as White House spokespeople twisted them selves in convoluted knots in an attempt to explain this is ten moves ahead three dimensional chess and not simply chaos.
What I've learned over the years is that Trump means what he says and he closed the Friday drama with this:
This is going to be great television. I will say that.
Thanks for reading and stay-tuned. Hardly a dull moment nowadays.
A couple of weeks ago Russian President Vladimir Putin sat down with Tucker Carlson for an interview. I finally got around to watching it myself.
Having been critical over the years of those who are cozy with the former KGB Colonel I was curious as to what Carlson was going to say and what the interview might reveal. Heretofore, Carlson has been largely critical of any aid or support for Ukraine's defense. In November of 2019 he said he was rooting for Russia. Since Putin launched his war on Ukraine almost two years ago Carlson has been supportive of Putin and claimed (without any evidence) that financial support for Ukraine went to Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife. Let me be clear, Carlson is not a journalist; he's a commentator. I wanted to watch the interview in its entirety and form an opinion afterward.
Key takeaways include the following:
In a rambling forty minute homily Putin justified his invasion of Ukraine arguing that Russia has a historic claim to much of western Ukraine reaching back to the 13th century. And that Ukrainian territory bordering the Black Sea has no historical connection to Ukraine whatsoever.
Furthermore, Putin claimed that it was Ukraine, following Russia's annexation of Crimea, that instigated the war in 2014. He denied any responsibility for provoking hostilities.
Carlson did push back on Putin's revisionist history lecture including Russia's role in WWII and the formation of the Soviet Union asking what history had to do with what happened a couple of years ago.
Putin also complained about the eastern expansion of NATO and that Russia had to push back against this expansion; again. leading up to the war in Ukraine.
Finally, Putin played the Nazi card claiming that one of Russia's goals is the de-Nazification of and prohibition of Neo-Nazi movements in Ukraine.
Carlson asked Putin if he has evidence supporting the claim that the CIA was responsible for the destruction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea. Putin offered no tangible evidence but claimed that Russia should look for someone who's interested and has capabilities.
Asked if Putin would be willing to release Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Putin told Carlson a prisoner exchange would probably lead to his release and is essentially controlled by the US authorities.
So, was this a propaganda win for Putin? A blockbuster interview for Carlson? My sense is that Putin saw this interview as an opportunity to telegraph to the US that there is no further point to assisting Ukraine with more weaponry and financial support as the war will continue regardless. Putin is in for the long term and is willing to wait, at least until after the 2024 election, with the hope that Donald Trump is returned to the White House. I think Putin believes Trump and a far right congress will be more pliable and sympathetic to Moscow's narratives. He views Americans as fundamentally weak.
And speaking of elections, Mr. Putin has a presidential election next month. The outcome of which cannot be in any doubt. That said, he has to play to his Russian audience as a leader with a global platform. State-controlled media outlets breathlessly hyped Carlson's visit as if it were that of a head of state.
On balance I call this a win for Putin and given the state-sponsored lecture from one of the world's great villains; a disappointment for Carlson. The interview was lame; it was one-sided and anticlimactic.
I've never understood the far right's fatuous admiration and embrace of Putin. Of course, I don't understand the far left's pro-Hamas love affair either. I guess the fringe has a high tolerance for stone-cold killers and war criminals. Which would explain why they're the fringe.
So,
is Tucker Carlson a useful idiot? Consider the history of this term.
It originally applied to Western intellectuals who naively supported the
Bolsheviks and Soviets by ignoring the universal truths of a brutal
dictatorship. Stalin despised such people yet considered them helpful
in advancing his message. Yesterday the death of Russian
dissident Alexei Navalny was confirmed. Until then I would have characterized Mr.
Carlson as a garden variety Putin shill. Today he has been promoted to useful
idiot.
Perform your own due diligence and watch the interview in its entirety here. My readers are smart enough to draw their own conclusions.....
Further evidence that in Putin's Russia if you stand up to the former KGB colonel you might perish from a 6th floor defenestration, your aircraft may fall from the sky or you die in a Soviet Gulag.
It was only a few short months ago when a puzzling mutiny led by Wagner mercenary group strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin rattled Vladimir Putin and the Russian military.
This blogger has been wondering ever since why Putin, who accused Prigozhin of treason, allowed him to live. Ordinarily, Vlad's enemies suffer radioactive polonium poisoning or strangely fall to their deaths from eighth floor windows. Maybe Putin was waiting for the perfect opportunity?
Telegram/WAGNER_svodki
And Prigozhin's private aircraft fell from the sky last Wednesday. Let's be clear, I've watched enough aircraft disaster episodes on the Smithsonian Channel to know that burning aircraft do not ordinarily drop from the sky.
We don't know for sure if a bomb planted on board caused the aircraft to explode or if it was destroyed by antiaircraft fire. Has anybody said for sure that the mercenary chief's remains have been recovered? It has been reported that seven passengers and three crew members perished in the crash less than 200 miles north of Moscow.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Perskov would tell you any involvement by Putin is: an absolute lie. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko obliquely suggested: I cannot imagine that Putin did it; that Putin is to blame.
Nothing like a healthy dose of Kremlin intrigue. I've got some acquaintances who insist nothing coming out of Russia should be taken as factual or the truth. Russia and its leaders have historically had an uncomfortable relationship with purges, coups, disappearances and assassinations. And I suppose that amongst the elite gangster class of Russian oligarchs anyone who previously thought they might voice criticism of Putin is going to clam-up with the knowledge that any challenge to his authority is going to lead to a death sentence.
Of course there's likely more than a handful off pissed-off Wagner people out there. I wonder what's to come of this hired gun empire?
The Kremlin's war against Ukraine will likely persist and whispers about Putin's management of the conflict will persist as well. One has to wonder if any of this is a morale boost for the conscript army being squandered on Putin's unprovoked invasion. What a waste.
The bottom line is the public assassination of Prigozhin highlights the decades-long descent of Russia into a mafia state. A vast criminal enterprise barely held together with barbarousness and completely incapable of global leadership. A failed state.
The people over at the Wall Street Journal have had, what I consider, the best coverage of this unfolding event. They published a terrific piece on the Wagner Chieftain's last days. Check it out; it's a good read.
I
cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. it is a riddle, wrapped
in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key. That key is Russian
national interest.
-Winston Churchill
Edit to add - Sunday morning (08.27.23), in a statement published on the Telegram messaging service, Russia's Investigative Committee said the identities of all of the aircraft's passengers had been confirmed with "molecular-genetic examinations."
Wagner sympathizers had held out hope that the mercenary leader was somehow still alive and that his death was faked.
The state apparatus reports he's dead. And, of course, Russian state media is unimpeachable.
The North Atlantic Treaty
Organization, or NATO, was created in 1949 by 12 countries to provide
collective security against the Soviet Union.
Commonly recognized as deterrance.
To this day NATO's stated
purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through
political and military means.
The Secretary General concluded the NATO Summit held in Vilnius, Lithuania on Wednesday of last week. And following the requisite amount of drama President Erdogan of Turkey relented and agreed to Sweden's application for membership to proceed. Holdout nation Hungary also followed.
This is interesting on several levels. First, since the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO has more than doubled in size to include 28 European countries, Canada and the U.S. Finland came on board in April of this year with Sweden now to follow.
Second, it is possible that Vladimir Putin calculated his unprovoked invasion of neighboring Ukraine would lead to the fracturing of NATO. Nope. Previously non-aligned and neutral Finland and Sweden requested, hand-in-hand, membership in the alliance. As a consequence, NATO has expanded and strengthened as an outcome of Putin's (not the Russian people's) aggression.
And since the last presidential election we've learned that the former guy was going to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from the NATO alliance in his second term of office. Inasmuch as he may win the 2024 election there is bipartisan legislation that will likely come to a floor vote before then which would nullify executive action of this nature; instead, requiring an act of Congress or the Senate to exit the alliance.
War and elections have consequences.
Anyway, Article 5, which stands at the heart of NATO's founding says that an attack on any member of the alliance would be viewed as an attack on all. If such an attack does occur, each member will take measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security. Article 5 has been invoked only once; following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. NATO came to America's aid.
It's good to have friends.
NATO is not a monolithic organization and its membership doesn't always agree. Such is the nature of a diverse membership of democracies, nonaligned nations and tolerance for differing points of view.
On balance I believe that NATO has been good for Europe and good for Canada and the U.S. It has been good for our economies and good for our defense forces. It has been good for the world.
For sure there is a minority that will take issue with my view; nevertheless, in a world with dangerously bad actors, in my opinion for more than 70 years NATO has been a force for good and it's better to be aligned with the good guys instead of the bad guys.
One of the side benefits of retirement is the amount of time that you have to devote to other interests. Volunteering, education, cooking and baking, community service, reading and your thoughts.
The thing about thinking and thoughts is that you get to speculate. I'm not talking about speculating in the investment world of stocks and bonds or commodities. I'm smart enough to avoid that like a case of the clap. I am referring to speculation as it applies to conjecture on a subject without firm evidence. There are times I like to indulge in speculation on political, social, geopolitical and related subject matter - local and otherwise. The good news is that it earned me the role of being a class coordinator for a current affairs class at the community college - a good thing. It also earned me the label of Armchair General as it relates to my musings on Russia. I don't believe it was intended as a pejorative; likely more out of frustration over my standing firm on hostile actors and performative politicians.
No big deal on my end as I get called plenty of names for standing firm. Besides, I am also an armchair gardener, armchair class coordinator, armchair pizza maker, armchair astronomer and so on. Last month I got a bartender license; add that to the list. Jack of many trades and master of none. You get the drift. But I digress.
A week has passed since Wagner Group strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin ended his march on Moscow thusly avoiding large-scale Russian on Russian bloodshed. In and of itself this was both disorienting and alarming. And after the passage of seven days I am unconvinced that any layperson has absolutely definitive knowledge about the causes for how events played-out. Although there is plenty of speculation.
For the record I haven't any inside information. Although it appears that Russian leadership has, temporarily at least, descended into the national equivalent of a dumpster fire.
Some observations and and idle speculation.
Was what transpired an elaborately staged deep fake? Was Prigozhin out to topple Vladimir Putin? I don't think so.
Was Prigozhin trying to save his business enterprise (his sweat equity in Wagner) from being subsumed into Russian command? And save his own scalp? These have possibilities.
Did he have co-conspirators in the Kremlin or Russian military? Will Wagner fighters follow their boss to Belarus? Will they return to carry the fight to Ukraine? Has Prigozhin triggered a Kremlin purge? Is this the end of Prigozhin or the beginning? All of this is anybody's guess.
What I think is that Prigozhin's folk hero send-off as he prepared to depart Rostov for life in Belarusian exile was a bad look for Putin. The normally reclusive Putin spent considerable time last week posing for staged selfies. It is impossible to know if events have left Putin weakened, strengthened or vindictive. Prigozhin has suggested that Putin's reasons for invading Ukraine were based on lies fed to him by the Kremlin's top brass; a fraud. Has this struck a chord with ordinary Russians?
A falling out amongst gangsters comes with all manner of loyalty complications; including, but not limited to, poisoning by means of polonium and falling from a sixth floor window. Gangsters typically feel compelled to reassert their primacy.
Either way you slice it Putin clearly does not have a succession plan in place and the notion of Russia (with all of its nukes) descending into civil war is unnerving. The dimmest of armchair generals understands this. It would probably be a good idea to give the Russians sufficient space to sort this out on their own.
Of course there's a candidate for POTUS who claims he can fix all of this in 24 hours. If any of you readers know what the recipe is for the Secret Sauce I'm all ears. Otherwise it's just more speculation.
In closing there is this. This last week Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. hosted former U.N. arms inspector and convicted child sex predator,
Scott Ritter on his podcast to rhapsodize over CIA conspiracy theories
and defend Russian president Vladimir Putin as a man who will go down in history as one of the greatest leaders of all time.
Seriously, you can’t possibly make this stuff up....
Beginning Friday evening and extending into all day yesterday what appeared to be a fast-moving mutiny in Russia unfolded and was resolved in a matter of hours.
Was Wagner Group strongman Yevgeniy Prigozhin fomenting an insurrection or a putsch?
The march on Moscow came to an abrupt halt with what appeared to be a deal brokered by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Prigozhin will live in exile in lovely Belarus, Wagner Group mercenaries will alternately be disbanded or absorbed into the Russian command structure.
What does this mean for Vladimir Putin? What does this mean for Prigozhin? Does this development have meaningful
consequences for Ukraine? Does Russian instability impact their
unprovoked invasion of a neighbor? What red lines have been crossed? What are the implications for gangster loyalty? What next?
Or was this a non-coup? A deep fake choreographed by Putin and Prigozhin? A retreat from defeat in Ukraine disguised as a coup. Or an excuse to consolidate Wagner into the regular Russian army?
Speculation and conspiracy theories are cheap.
Churchill said it best -
I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.
Among other expert podcasts I digest among my favorites includes Peter Zeihan. Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst. He studies how place impacts financial, economic, cultural, political and military developments; and makes them understandable to a layperson.
This is the fifth question of his Q&A series: Who is the ultimate provocateur in the Ukraine War? He doesn't think his answer will surprise anyone.
If Russian propaganda has led you to believe that nazi-jewish-gay-demons run Ukraine maybe this isn't the video for you. Equally as absurd is the idea that NATO and the US are responsible for Ukraine being in this situation.
The US has seen NATO growth since the Cold War's end; roughly 20 countries have joined, and many of them are former Soviet territories. But joining NATO is no cakewalk. It's a grueling process and must be unanimously agreed-upon by all members.
So the idea that NATO started this war and has been plotting to eliminate Russia is a stretch.
Besides, when you actively send tens of thousands of troops into another country, it's pretty hard to get the red off your hands.
I got to know a lot of the foreign leaders, and let me tell you, unlike
our leader, they’re at the top of their game. These are like central
casting. There’s nobody that could play the role in Hollywood, all of
Hollywood, nobody can play the role of President Xi China. Nobody could
play the role. He’s a fierce person. Putin, fierce, is smart. A lot of
times I’ll say somebody’s smart and the fake news will go, “He called
President Xi smart.” He rules with an iron fist 1.5 billion people.
Yeah, I’d say he’s smart. Wouldn’t you say he’s smart?
So I’m with President Xi and I got along with him very well. . . . I
really had a great relationship with him. And then I asked him a
question. I said, “President,” He’s president for life, by the way. So I
call him King. I say, “King.” He said, “But I am not king.” I said,
“You are to me. You’re president for life, it’s the same thing.” He will
be very soon.
Anybody who knows me would know that 95% of my T-shirt inventory is comprised of bike ride shirts.
Not this.
I
wasn’t particularly thinking about it when we stopped at the Sturgeon
Bay Farmers Market this morning when all of a sudden total strangers all
over came up to me to compliment and share their approval. Same for
folks at the grocery store.
There
are plenty of descriptors for Old Vlad that are inappropriate around
children and social media. Nevertheless, there seems to be near
universal agreement that Putin Is A Dick.
Just about the time you think that the Trump-Putin wing of the GOP would run out of gas something else pops-up from MAGA World.
Seriously, it's like bad fungus sprouting overnight on a rotten stump.
I’m
further, I think, than he (Trump) is on the issue of NATO. He demanded
that the partners pay their share. I would withdraw us from NATO. It’s a
Cold War relic. Our involvement should have ceased when the [Berlin]
wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed.
-Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.)
Just like Donald Trump, Massie is a fond admirer and supporter of Vladimir Putin.
Consider this:
He was the
sole congressional vote against condemning Putin's annexation of Crimea.
In Massie's view that we should withdraw from NATO.
He also wants us to withdraw from the
United Nations.
Massie's
refusal to support nations defending themselves against Russian invaders does
not reflect a pacifist viewpoint.
Twitter
He has expressed dismay at the terrible
persecution of Marina Butina.
A couple of weeks ago the House voted to pass a bill denouncing rising antisemitism. Massie was the only lawmaker to vote against it. It's pretty unusual for a lawmaker to vote no on a noncontroversial, nonbinding resolution. Oh, I forgot. He is also an anti-Israel holocaust denier.
Hatred-aside, he's just an anti-democracy malcontent. He refused to support a Congressional commendation for the law enforcement officers who protected his life, and refusing
to vote for a measure reaffirming commitment to a peaceful transfer of
power.
When you peel the onion the
Trump-Putin caucus is fundamentally an anti-democracy caucus. It is a
pro-authoritarian caucus. Calling these people
"isolationist" is missing the point entirely. It is a pro-Putin caucus.
How some elements of the Republican Party devolved to this level sure has me flummoxed. They actually admire and support Soviet war criminals who commit barbaric acts of rape, torture and murder upon civilian noncombatants.
How did these sociopaths get so nutty in my lifetime?
Related to today's video from Peter Zeihan As a presidential candidate the senator from Utah was equally Prescient. In 2012, he noted that Russia was the biggest geopolitical adversary to
the United States. Today that threat has been magnified in scale and should be a source of great concern to
both Republicans and Democrats.
Romney was and is spot-on. Given the magnitude of consequence of a
nuclear strike, our potential options merit thought, by our leaders and
by American citizens alike. If Putin uses a nuke or weaponizes a
Ukrainian nuke plant NATO should give thoughtful consideration to obliterating the Soviet military from the
face of the earth.
By conventional means.
Better yet, Russian military leadership should eliminate the cancer in their midst, retreat to 2013 borders and reach a negotiated settlement to repair and rebuild the destruction they inflicted-upon the Ukrainian people.
Short of that I would be confirmed in my belief that the Russians are garden variety barbarians. Rape, brutality and depravity is embedded in their DNA. Godless they are.
This is a country convinced it is in it's last generation
Yikes!
My pal, Braumeister, recommended that I check-out material that Peter Zeihan has published.
This presentation from 2017 nailed-it, spot-on.
I had always understood the basic crumbling demographics in Russia and how this was contributing to it's growing status as a failed state. Nevertheless, watching this in 2022 is pretty incredible - the main points he made in 2017 (falling population, degrading demography) are contributing circumstances behind the Ukrainian invasion.
On Friday the Soviets announced they were eliminating age limits for military service. Clearly the demographic squeeze has been complicated by the growing casualty toll from the Ukraine aggression and now requires that Putin cast a wider net for additional cannon fodder. Just as the Nazis had to conscript children and old men before their capitulation so does the Russian warlord.
Russia announced today that it has banned 963 Americans from entering Russia — a largely symbolic move
featuring a wide-ranging collection of Biden administration members,
Republicans, tech executives, journalists, lawmakers who have died,
regular U.S. citizens and even actor Morgan Freeman - and would continue to retaliate
against what it called hostile U.S. actions.
Mitch McConnell returned to Washington this week following a rare overseas trip that included additional Senate GOP leadership
determined to stomp the isolationist wing that is poisoning the Republican party.
The Republican leader is
determined to stamp out a pro-Trump wing of his party that has pushed
back on $40 billion in aid to Ukraine.
As the barbarity of Russian war crimes and atrocities continues to be revealed to a civilized world the Trump-Putin Wing of the GOP has become slightly less strident in their support for their Soviet Savior.
Why do you suppose this is?
Has it simply become more difficult to rationalize the looting, rape and horrific noncombatant death toll to a rational audience?
Maybe it makes polite individuals uncomfortable?
No need to over-analyze these sociopaths; the Trump-Putin apologists are basically loud-mouth cowards.
For instance an intellectual MAGA heavyweight had this to say...
“So far, Putin hasn’t killed as many people as the Clintons.”
Only 5 percent of Republicans support Russia over Ukraine. Fortunately it is a minority. I can only hope it is a shrinking minority. Nevertheless, the Trump-Putin wing of the GOP has continually sided with Putin and against Ukraine.
From MAGA land there is a near limitless supply of this...
Putin is a very strong leader. He’s been in charge for a
long time. And he’s not going to put up with the nonsense he’s seeing in
Europe.
Mike Flynn, former Trump National Security Advisor
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