Managing Pond Scum

Schadenfreude is the pleasure we feel when witnessing the misfortune of others.  While it may seem mean-spirited, and even vindictive; if you feel guilty about the satisfaction you experience when someone else messed-up don't be too hard on yourself.  It happens.  I admit to feeling a wee bit mirthful over the president's ongoing battle with pond scum.

Anybody who has lived on a farm, had a neglected backyard pool, pond, gone fishing or otherwise been anywhere near a body of water knows that algae happens once the weather warms-up.  Where I live excess nutrient runoff can create entire dead zones in Green Bay and close beaches to swimmers.  When that happens both us and our dogs stay out of the water until the danger passes.  Hey!  What about your ponds and creek?

Good question.  All three bodies of water on our property support a wealth of diversity including aquatic plant life to animals.  There is no excess nutrient runoff in the ponds because we don't apply any.  Natural algae growth and protozoans support insects and animals on the low end of the food chain. Which, in-turn, support amphibians and reptiles and birds like cranes, ducks and herons.  I can't speak for runoff in the creek because I cannot control agricultural applications upstream or downstream; but it certainly supports bait fish and crawdads.  Speaking for myself, we use best management practices (BMPs) for riparian habitat.

Does the water on my ponds and creek look like drinking water?   Nope.  Would I drink it?  Nope.  Does it look better than the Reflecting Pool water?  Absolutely.  The biophilia is in balance.  You cannot win a fight against Ma Nature and science.

Algae blooms have long thrived in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool since it opened in 1922.  It is filled with stagnant tidal water from the Potomac River further enriched with excess nitrogen and phosphorus runoff which algae loves.  Mr. Trump's own Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will tell you that the water in the pool is unsafe for swimming, fishing or supporting aquatic life.  It is hazardous.  

The president has insisted that his $14 million renovation this spring would forever banish the cloudy, algae-infested water as a consequence of sealing the leaks, filtering the water and painting the bottom American Flag Blue.   

Following the renovations it was refilled with the same nutrient-rich tidal water (not treated city water), wildlife defecated in the pool, it is shallow, fetid and foul and warmed-up in the summer sunshine.  Summers in D.C. are sweltering and the dark blue bottom exacerbated the problem by absorbing more heat and voilà, the largest algae bloom in recent memory!

Mr. Trump wanted blue and he got green.  And lots of it. 

He looked at the algae and blamed imaginary enemies, because enemies are easier than learning.  In the last five days it seems at least five individuals have been cited, arrested or otherwise detained for poisoning or vandalizing the Reflecting Pool.  I don't believe the Reflecting Pool was sabotaged; because I haven't been witness to mug shots or the drama of  a Trumpian perp walk.  The real cause is usually the obvious; it is simply dirty water, full of food for algae, followed by hot weather and now the bottom is delaminating possibly because of shoddy installation by a no-bid contractor and/or the president's own motorcade driving across it.   

 

The president called it an attack because the real answer is too complicated for him to grasp.  Another excuse from the man who shouts at people but cannot shout science out of the water. I guess he missed the class. 

The toxic Reflecting Pool is actually a perfect metaphor for Mr. Trump; and he created it himself. He's gonna drain it, repaint it and start over.   All the while expecting a different result.

So here we are; the National Guard has been tasked with watching paint peel from behind a newly-installed chain link fence and Donald Trump may go down in history as the only US President to be outwitted by a single celled organism.

You can't make this stuff up if you tried.... 

 

Mixed Messages

I've published on this subject previously and reflecting-upon recent gains in the investment markets, a reasonably robust jobs report, the peace process (or lack-there-of) for the Iran war why are the people seemingly down on their economic situation and possibly even a wee bit grumpy?

Consumer sentiment has dropped again.  According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 48.2. from 49.8 in April.  The numbers are preliminary and subject to revision; nevertheless, this is the second consecutive all-time low in a data set that has been collected since the late 1970s.

I look at the economic world through the eyes of a recovering financial advisor and while I'm not wearing rose-colored glasses my sense is that excepting for global economic instability and rising energy costs as a consequence of the Iran war, economically-speaking, things are generally OK.  

What gives?  

Seems like the culprit are those nagging exceptions; namely the war, inflation due to energy costs and tariffs along with generalized economic uncertainty; all of which conspire to create bad vibes that bleeds into weakness in the mood of consumers.  This is important as the lion's share of our domestic economy is driven by consumers and their consumption.

According to the survey's director, Joanne Hsu, the drop is; "Owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases."  One-third of respondents mentioned gas prices as the biggest cause for concern; and another one-third cited tariffs. 

Stock indexes held positive in the wake of this news; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job creation was stronger than expected in April with non farm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000 and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%.  A recession is presently a low-probability event.  Further evidence that things, economically-speaking, are generally OK.  

My sense is the weakness in the Michigan survey numbers reflect public opinion in light of soaring prices for gas and diesel at the start of the summer travel season.  Consequently, there is a political shadow over all of this.  People are pissed-off and tiring of the drama have contracted a case of Trump fatigue.  And I get it; we just purchased airline tickets for a family vacation and with the cost of jet fuel doubling it's not a cheap date.

My preference is for policy that improves your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  Along with making the world a safer place; so, where’re we at?

On one hand the stock market is on an absolute tear, with the NASDAQ up 5% last week and nearly 13% year-to-date.  The proximate causes include a shaky cease-fire with Iran, a 28% surge in S&P corporate profits for the first quarter and some consensus-beating economic reports, like Friday's payroll numbers. 

On the other hand, there is this. 

The Strait remains off-line, inflation is up, Iran holds all of its enriched uranium and President Trump's war has set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have all manner of consequences for global stability, security and the world economy.  

Meanwhile there is a billion dollar+ ballroom, a triumphal arch, a glowering visage of Trump on passports and national park passes and a no-bid, resort-blue paint job for the historic Washington Monument Reflecting Pool.  

It's a mixed message for sure.

Good grief.... 

It's The Economy Stupid

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers. 

As we began the second year of Donald Trump's second term in office by traditional measures our economy was in decent shape.  Most forecasts put 2026 GDP growth around 2 - 2.5% with a solid, steady expansion and little risk of recession.  

Interest rates were expected to ease or stabilize while tax and spending policies supporting business and consumers took effect.  

Productivity gains and demand would lead to business - technology in particular - to post record profits.  All while artificial intelligence would boost efficiencies, margins and long term growth potential.  

The labor market was expected to remain near full employment levels with the prospects for American business and consumers looked much brighter following SCOTUS' striking-down of the president's import taxes.

Then President Trump unilaterally decided to go to war with Iran.  He did not ask for, nor receive the approval of Congress.  The president did not take the matter before the American people to make the case for war; although roughly a month later he did did make a formal prime time address to the nation on April Fools Day.  We heard a restatement of already-familiar talking points and were told the war was near completion and wrapping-up along with something about bombing them into the stone age.  With the exception of Israel, the president did not consult with our European allies or other global partners.  

Why is any of this worthy of mention?  The year 2026 had bright prospects  and by the end of February the president set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.  I think the president has stepped in it this time.

With the exception of Trump's war-loving MAGA base most of America disapproves of the war.   

Consequently, it should come as no great surprise that recent surveys of self-reported well-being have suggested that Americans are feeling discouraged and possibly becoming grumpy.   

Why is this important?  I hate to sound like a broken record but the American economy is not driven by manufacturing; it is a service economy.  With summer approaching the expectation at the beginning of the year was that of consumers spending more on travel and entertainment than last summer.  Accounting for two-thirds of all economic activity, it is consumer spending that fuels the US economy.  With the global disruption of energy supplies and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz all bets are off.

I've blogged on this subject from time-to-time and mentioned the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey which came in with preliminary results late last week.

The Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 11% to a historic low of 47.6.  If these numbers hold by the time complete data is announced at the end of this month this represents the lowest reading in the survey's 74 year history.  In case you're interested, the previous record low of 50 was at the peak of Biden-era inflation.  

I'm not at all surprised.  I may be a retired financial guy but I know that average folks struggle with wrapping their mind around abstract economic data such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP), but everyone understands the gas pump.  Last week national prices for a gallon of regular gasoline hovered around $4.15 with diesel at $5.50; up roughly 39% from before Trump went to war.  Oh boy howdy.

Additionally, according to the US Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index, small business optimism fell for a second consecutive quarter this past week.  Just 28% of small business owners say the economy is in good health; down 10 points from the previous quarter.

Finally, driven by sharp spikes in energy costs, this last week we learned inflation is up Big Time. Raspberries and blueberries and fresh produce in general have risen in price as a consequence of increased transportation costs.  So when I suggest the President Trump has stepped in it; I'm doing so because his unilateral war in Iran may turn out to be a serious-bad unforced error.  While I may grouse about the increased cost of fresh produce the impact of Trump's excursion in Iran is being felt in both myriad and profound ways across the globe.

I don't want to come across as the skunk that showed-up at your garden party but these are three data points that are blinking like glaring red warnings on the instrument panel of the airplane you are piloting over a vast uninhabited rain forest without a landing strip in sight.

While not much of this is life altering to me; that is simply not the case for a many of my countrymen.  Worst-case, people are nervous about making ends meet. Best-case, they're anxious about possibly altering or canceling a summer family vacation.  Between you and me I think the president actually cares.  Less about anyone's hardships; but more about the midterms and polling. 

The missus purchased airline tickets since the war began and both wartime fuel and baggage surcharges were assessed.  So yeah, I'm feeling a wee bit grumpy too.  Hardly at all as a consequence of cost; but mostly because none of this nonsense has so far improved my lot in life and made the world any safer.  For my sake and yours I sure hope Trump fixes this.  

You can learn more about the University of Michigan data here.

Compulsion

The primary diagnostic source for psychologists and psychiatrists is the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM).  The current revised text editions is the DSM-5-TR, and is published by the American Psychiatric Association.  Known both here and abroad, it is the standard reference for the classifying and diagnosing of mental disorders.

While I majored in psychology as an undergrad a million years ago I'm not suggesting I have even the slightest capacity to diagnose even a quirk in personality, much less a serious psychosocial disorder.  Nevertheless , in case you have been wondering lately about what's going on here at the blog; there is this....

 

Datapoint

I didn't see this coming; consequently, it caught me by surprise.  

Here we are, barely one month into the new year, and the Conference Board's long-running consumer confidence index fell 9.7 points from 94.2 in December.  This was a sharp drop with all five components of the index deteriorating making it one of the largest monthly drops in four years and placing American's confidence in the economy at the lowest it has been in a dozen years.  

click on image for a closer look

Popular sentiment about the economy is both a curious and fickle phenomenon.  Over the last couple of years consumer confidence did not necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the US economy.  This drop is an assessment of survey respondents' current state of economic affairs and their expectations for the future.  Notably, the index is now below the level it sank during the pandemic when unemployment was approaching 15%.

Asked about jobs the share of consumers who shared that jobs are plentiful fell to 23.9% from 27.5% in December.  Similarly, 13.9% expected more jobs to be available in the next six months compared with 17.4% in December. 

Economists suggest that these data point are the latest evidence of American's perceptions of a weaker labor market than the actual numbers may imply.  It this a wariness of potential impacts from artificial intelligence?

Again, economists over at the Conference Board suggest that respondent's answers to the survey continues to trend pessimistic with elevated concerns over food and grocery prices, health insurance, utilities, future business conditions, income prospects and trade war impacts.

Despite robust GDP growth and an overall low unemployment rate U.S. consumers are pessimistic about the general economic outlook.

Go figure. 

Free Speech

I was witness to a disturbing phenomena over the weekend and I don't believe I am the only person to have made this observation. Moreover, I am not surprised that it has come from the same small group of individuals who six months ago were getting-off on Face Book with vulgar, racist, sexual memes and hate speech focused towards Vice President Kamala Harris.

It took only about 24 hours for these same individuals to go over the top gleeful as Californians suffered the tragic misfortune of losing everything to wildfires.  

Homes, businesses and property lost. Families displaced. 

People still missing and unaccounted-for.  

Lives lost.

Thanks to an abundance of material supplied by Russian and Communist Chinese troll farms my recalcitrant acquaintances have somehow roped forestry policy, the LGBTQ community, pedophilia, diversity, equity and inclusion, a wild smelt, Hollywood personalities, Gavin Newsom, North Carolina and Ukraine all into one big wet dream of joyful, celebratory and triumphal mirth over the loss of life, destruction of neighborhoods and communities reduced to ash.

As a casual observer it is interesting to watch this social psychology at play in real time.

There's a great deal of unresolved grievance and hatred out there. Waiting only for the opportunity to be unleashed on social media from behind the warming glow of a device. Hard to know if it's a character flaw or a pathology. Strikingly, some of these individuals wear their 'Christianity' on their sleeve and remind me of it regularly.  

I wonder what Jesus would have to say about their flagrant expenditure of bandwidth to mock the dead and air their loathing and scorn for the people of Los Angeles?

I just don't get it. I'm grateful I'm not hardwired to be ecstatic and gratified over my fellow countryman's misfortunes.....

*Individual screenshots of Face Book posts, commentary and replies have not been reposted here for privacy reasons and because the content is just sick.

Laissez Les Bons Temps Rouler

Popular sentiment about the economy is both a curious and fickle phenomenon.  Over the last couple of years consumer confidence did not necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the US economy.  I've blogged about it from time to time as I've scratched my noggin over perceptions of what is real versus perceived.  As a recovering financial guy I periodically puzzled-over this disconnect.  Perhaps that is exactly the point - perceptions in and of themselves are naturally fickle.  Which is why they are nothing more than perceptions.  Don't over analyze it; what is perceived is frequently not founded in reality.

Now we learn that popular sentiment over the economy has flipped.  A majority of consumers (among Republicans anyway) now perceive that the good times are about to roll.

Last week, the New York Fed's monthly consumer survey revealed that an increasing number of us now share the expectation that our financial situation is likely to improve in the coming year.  Remarkably, this optimism has reached its highest level since the period of time immediately preceding the COVID shit show of 2020. 

This is further bolstered by the University of Michigan measure of US Consumer Sentiment indicating that it increased for the fifth consecutive month, the highest level since April.

Some may suggest this this is a consequence of the reelection of Donald Trump.  I am unconvinced as this has been percolating for the better part of 2024; but I'd not disregard the possibility of confirmation bias.  I am certain that the president-elect will take credit for the strong economy he will inherit. The only Trump Effect I can discern is found in reading the University of Michigan data.  Current conditions have been led by a surge in the purchasing of durable goods - a consequence of the perception that purchases of durables today would enable a buyer to avoid price increases in the future.  Which takes us to that nagging matter of inflation.

To be certain the economy remains healthy; the labor market is stable, consumer spending is robust and growth has been steady.  The core consumer price index (excludes volatile energy and food prices) has grown at an annual rate of 3.3% year-over-year; stubbornly remaining above the Fed's target rate of 2%.  

Domestic retailers are warning that proposed tariffs would result in higher prices to US consumers.  The president-elect himself has said that he can't guarantee anything when it comes to the impact of tariffs on Americans at the checkout.  This, along with immigration restrictions, may contribute to our ongoing inflation challenges.

So, stay-tuned.  None of this would be so consequential except that 70% of the US economy is consumer spending.  The remaining 30% is government spending, manufacturing and everything else.  So maybe sentiment counts for something after all.

It's The Economy, Stupid.

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers.  I've written about the subject several times over the years.

Last week the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by fifty basis points (half of a percentage point).  Mortgage rates are down.  Inflation has basically been beaten into submission having settled at historically normal levels.  Gasoline is below $3 a gallon in many locations.  Our nation is a net-exporter of petroleum and natural gas.  Unemployment remains low.  The financial markets are out-performing.  I look at the economic landscape thru the lens of a recovering financial advisor and happen to think that the fundamental economic picture is pretty darn good.

Nevertheless, former president Trump tells us we're basically an economic failed state.  His followers believe it too.  Polling data from the New York Times and Siena College reveals that only 2 percent of voters believe the economy is excellent.  21 percent call it good.  28 percent consider it fair; while nearly half, 49 percent, rated it poor.

I do not minimize the reality that some individuals and families find themselves in economic circumstances that are diminished.  Maybe they've struggled since the Great Recession of 2008 with the 2020 COVID-induced recession delivering a one-two punch.  Yet, clearly there is a perception problem; and it is a problem that the Democrats own and continue to struggle-with.  I happen to believe that this perception disconnect has its roots in something of an idealized view of where voters were in the pre-COVID years versus where they are today.

It is a fact that before COVID inflation and mortgage rates were lower.  Unemployment was slightly lower than today.  And, of course, all of that ended with the 2020 recession resulting in a ginormous spike in unemployment, negative economic growth and a crash in the financial markets.

Since then, and over the last four years, growth in household income has been higher year-over-year, the markets are at record highs and the US economy rivals any other similarly-advanced economy globally.

Kamala Harris needs to work on her economic messaging.

If she wants to win the election.

The Great Hornswoggle

I recently returned from a perfectly enjoyable family vacation in the United Kingdom 
And I brought these curious polling statistics back with me to share:

• 55% of Americans believe the economy is in recession; when factually Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing and our economic reality is the envy of the rest of the world.

• 49% believe that unemployment is at record levels; when factually it is at a 50-year record low.

• 49% think the stock market is down; when factually it is (as of the publication date of this post) at record highs.

This is real world stuff.  And if this polling is believable who knew that this thinking is so pervasive and Americans so persuadable to believe otherwise. 

When an individual is susceptible and acquiescent to embrace fallacious disinformation; 19th century American showman PT Barnum had a useful descriptor for the phenomena.  Follow this link at The Guardian to learn more.

Spring Forward

If you’re like me this semiannual switch between Standard Time and Daylight Saving Time is maddening.  Today I lost an hour of sleep and in November after I set my clock back an hour I’ll still get out of bed in the dark to turn the coffee on.  At the end of the day I’ll pour myself a glass of Merlot in the dark.  This resetting of the clocks is messing with my circadian rhythms.

Daylight Saving Time is associated with the Western world as most countries outside Europe and North America don't observe the ritual. 

Courtesy of CNN research the notion of Daylight Saving Time has a curious pedigree.

1784 - The idea of daylight saving is first conceived by Benjamin Franklin.

1914-1918 - Britain goes on DLS during World War I.

March 19, 1918 - The Standard Time Act establishes time zones and daylight saving. Daylight saving is repealed in 1919, but continues to be recognized in certain areas of the United States.

1945-1966 - There is no federal law regarding Daylight Saving Time.

1966 - The Uniform Time Act of 1966 establishes the system of uniform Daylight Saving Time throughout the United States. The dates are the last Sunday in April to the last Sunday in October. States can exempt themselves from participation.

1974-1975 - Congress extends DLS in order to save energy during the energy crisis.

1986-2006 - Daylight Saving Time begins on the first Sunday in April and ends on the last Sunday in October.

August 8, 2005 - President George W. Bush signs the Energy Policy Act of 2005 into law. Part of the act will extend Daylight Saving Time starting in 2007, from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November.

Last year the Sunshine State decided they had enough of this nonsense and by overwhelming margins the Florida House of Representatives and Senate passed the Sunshine Protection Act and Governor Rick Scott signed it into law.  It will become effective if Congress changes the federal law.  

 

Senator Marco Rubio introduced The Sunshine Protection act of 2019 which would make permanent daylight saving time for all time zones.   President Trump implied support for it  and nothing came of it.  Even the White House has declined to say if President Biden supported permanent daylight savings time. Sheesh.

As for making Daylight Savings Time permanent there is evidence that the frequency of heart attack and stroke increases around the ritual resetting of clocks twice a year.  Benefits of Daylight Savings Time enhance public safety, make better economic sense and may improve our mental health.  Proponents of Daylight Saving Time argue that most people appreciate an increase in daylight hours after coming home from work.  

Speaking for myself - I like the notion of longer, lighter evenings, better health and a happier more prosperous United States.   

Make it permanent. Lock the clock.

It's The Economy, Stupid - New Year Edition

By any traditional measures our economy is firing on all eight cylinders.  Unemployment is at a fifty year low, wages (adjusted for inflation) are higher than they were before the pandemic, job satisfaction is up  and last month the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled that with inflation subsiding we may see three rate cuts in 2024.  It looks like there is little if any chance of a recession, with an economic soft landing instead.

So why is public opinion on the economy not reflecting all of this wonderful news? 

Conventional wisdom would suggest that people are grumpy about the economy even with the economic winds at their backs.

The best guess is that consumer sentiment over the economy has soured mostly as a consequence of high prices.  While inflation has slowed prices have not come down significantly.  We've seen a wee bit of a drop yet all you have to do is look at the tape total following a trip to the grocery store and it all makes perfect sense.  I also think there is some psychology in play as a consequence of social media trolls and garden-variety confirmation bias.  There is an election looming after all.

Consider this.  Only a couple short years ago, when inflation reared its ugly head and prices began to spike, consumer sentiment plunged in the opposite direction.  In 2022 the mood of the people, as measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, was as bad as it could possibly be.  The Consumer Sentiment Index set a record  fifty year low!  That is a big deal.

With a drop of that magnitude it's difficult to gauge if folks were shell-shocked, confused or just plain pissed-off.  As with the case of the bogus $20 Big Mac was misinformation causing perception to replace reality?  Had people lost their minds?

Ordinarily, a strong economy bodes well for an incumbent president.  In this case consumers may be recovering from the sentiment hangover.  If economic grumpiness is the new normal this does not bode well for Biden's reelection prospects.

Maybe as we've embraced post-pandemic life our world has fundamentally changed somehow.  Maybe it is the cumulative impact of many things - supply chain interruptions, labor shortages leading to hiring disruptions, longer waits for a contractor, higher mortgage rates, increased cost of diesel, fertilizer, used cars, new cars, real estate and construction has put large numbers of people into a mind-numbing economic funk?   I cannot put my finger on it.

Nevertheless, gasoline prices have come down considerably ($2.34 Friday at the new Kwik Trip in Sturgeon Bay), the stock and bond markets have out-performed, my real estate taxes are affordable and have barely increased, interest rates are forecast to fall, the prospects of a recession seem to have been a mirage, my personal consumer confidence is strong and for everyone else is likely improving every month since hitting rock bottom.  The previously worrisome Consumer Sentiment Index is steadily rising. The economy is strong.  I have no major grievances.  If Joe Biden is reelected not much will change for me.  If Donald Trump is elected it is highly likely I'll continue to prosper and have beaucoup blog material.  Besides, any president's immediate influence on an economy as large as ours is overstated.  

So, we'll have to see how 2024 unfolds.  For this blogger the glass is half-full.

Frozen Treasure

Last weekend I finally built-up enough nerve to perform a chore subject to a great deal of long-standing procrastination.

I defrosted the basement chest freezers.

There are three chest freezers in my basement and with the delivery of fresh venison to the guys from deer camp the smallest of the three was empty.  Between that and a couple of coolers I had the capacity to offload the contents of the remaining freezers and defrost each.  Freezer #1 on Saturday and freezer #2 on Sunday.  Freezer #3 is unplugged and idled until needed.

I have to say I felt a bit like Howard Carter opening King Tut's tomb; especially the top-loading chest and the hidden treasures that had found their way to the nether region of the bottom.  Smaller in quantity than I initially feared some items were so old they were discarded.  

And I had the opportunity to inventory, consolidate and rearrange the contents into a more organized fashion by application of baskets and boxes.  

And a suggestion by my lovely wife (the brains of the organization) each freezer now sports magnetic dry-erase boards on the door listing the quantity and contents of each.  

Inventory at a glance and an opportunity to really scratch my obsessive compulsive disorder itch!

It's The Economy, Stupid

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers. 

By traditional measures our economy is strong.  Unemployment is near a fifty year low.  Inflation-adjusted wages are higher today than before the pandemic, job satisfaction is up and inflation has slowed significantly.  For the period July thru September the economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.9% 5.2% (revised) - the largest rise since the last three months of 2021.  

The record low unemployment has translated into consumers spending more on travel and entertainment this past summer.  Accounting for two-thirds of all economic activity, it is consumer spending that fuels the US economy. 

Inflation has moderated considerably to 3.7 percent from last summer's peak of 9.1 percent.  Benefiting from the strength of stock, bond and real estate markets, household net worth is up too. 

But don't take my word for it, you can read the report card yourself here. 

Nevertheless, Americans don't necessarily see things through rose-colored lenses.  Polling of swing state residents reveals that eight in ten voters said the economy was fair to poor.  Only two percent suggested the economy was excellent.  The vast majority of all Americans, across race, age, gender, education, income, politics, geography, held a negative view of the economy.

Making this apparent disconnect even more confounding, consumer behavior is nowhere near what we might expect to witness if the economy was performing poorly.  Actual consumer behavior is typical of what would be seen when the economy is performing like it has been.

Consumer optimism is down, yet Americans are spending more.

What gives?  As a recovering financial guy this is causing me no small amount of cognitive dissonance.

Domestic oil production and refining is at an all time high and gasoline is relatively cheap.  So is it higher prices for groceries, diesel and dining out?  That certainly doesn't explain why folks haven't cut back on their spending.  Why are all of these people spending  and buying?  Consumer behavior is out of whack with consumer sentiment. 

A generally reliable economic insight is revealed preference theory.  The assertion is that the most certain way to measure consumer preferences is to measure their purchasing behavior.  Theoretically, the assumption is that in the end, consumers are rational.  Any devotee of behavioral finance is likely having a field day with this stuff. 

Sure, economics can be exceedingly complex and difficult for a layperson to understand.  Moreover, I think the media in general does a poor job of explaining phenomena such as price gouging, the correlation between global oil supply and the price at the pump or how massive stimulus spending commencing with Trump and continuing under Biden fuels inflation.

Policy most certainly plays a role in economics; but market forces exert a greater influence than any single governor, president or prime minister.  Inflation is global in scale; is old uncle Joe singularly responsible?  A more likely explanation is combined stimulus spending by multiple economies in response to the COVID emergency generated sufficient excess liquidity to spike inflation.  

It should come as no great surprise that our country's Chief Executive routinely takes the credit for a strong economy and is blamed when things turn south.  What I'm witnessing is a perception versus reality dichotomy.

Polling reveals that of registered voters, 59 percent have more confidence in Donald Trump's handling of the economy compared to 37 percent expressing confidence in Joe Biden.

If Trump wins the election in 2024 will my cost of unleaded gasoline fall from $2.84 to $1.84 the day following his inauguration?  Or is that a perception?

I grapple with this incongruous economic perception versus reality.  Spending behavior doesn't square with a vast swath of the population struggling to get by.  That doesn't mean some folks are struggling.  I can appreciate someone's life difficulties.  If you are 21 years old and fresh out of college or just trying to make it on your own life can be a struggle.  It was for me.  Unless you come from money the first decade of independent adult life is a contest to find your way and build economic stability.  When I went into business I was poor enough to qualify for surplus government cheese.  True story.

Nevertheless, persistence, hard work, long hours, no small amount of risk-taking eventually led to a reasonable lifestyle and comfortable retirement.  Emphasis on reasonable and comfortable.  Not extravagant and ostentatious. 

I'm also going to go out on a limb and play my old guy who's seen a lot of things in his life card.  The last several decades have been witness to the dot com crash, 9/11, the housing crash and Great Recession and COVID.  These are the practical memory for many people younger than me.  They're ingrained in my life experience too.  I've also had the life experience of witnessing an oil embargo, gasoline rationing, the draft during an unpopular war, raging double digit inflation, followed by double digit interest rates.  My first home was a duplex financed at the bargain fixed rate of 14.5%.  True story.

I have lived the reality of economic restructuring, downsizing, offshoring, the dismantling of family-supporting manufacturing jobs and recessions.  I was laid-off from my first real job out of college as a consequence of being low man on the totem pole.  Lack of seniority.  All generations struggle yet it seems that on balance each generation advances economically over the previous.  Not always - but generally-speaking.  

What is interesting to me are the confounding perceptions versus reality in an environment where the economy is about as good as it gets.  Strong economic growth, very low unemployment, rising real wages, rising median net worth and moderating levels of inflation.  How are these people gonna feel when we inevitably tip into a recession?

More about perceptions and bad information tomorrow.

Stay-tuned.....

If Only The Dead Could Talk

Most of you readers know that I am a consummate sucker for cemeteries.  The older the better.  I just love walking around imagining the lives of those interred or entombed underfoot or around me.  While traveling last month through the low country of Charleston, Beaufort and Savannah I scratched my cemetery itch on several occasions.  A walk through Bonaventure Cemetery included something special.  

Taphophobia - the fear of being buried alive as a consequence of being incorrectly pronounced dead.

This was a thing back in the 19th century.  The horror of burial alive  was rampant in port cities like Savannah, Georgia who had the plague of yellow fever epidemics visited-upon them.  The comas of the stricken could be so deep that the sick were sometimes mistaken for dead.  Ghoulish tales written by contemporary author Edgar Allan Poe put nobody's mind at ease.

Naturally, entrepreneurs and inventors capitalized on this and produced any number of gizmos to facilitate the resurrection of those buried before actually dead.  Many of these solutions involved some sort of alarm that could be triggered by the entombed to alert cemetery staff of their need for rescue.

At Bonaventure Cemetery in Savannah there is one such device that is present at the grave of Charles F. Mills.

Mills was a prominent and wealth Savannah businessman operating a steamship line on the Savannah River and served as president of the Marine Bank of Georgia.  He was buried in Bonaventure Cemetery on April 11, 1876 at age 74.  The vault is below this magnificent monument and his grave bell sits atop a pipe rising several inches from the ground immediately to the left of Mill's tomb.

The bell was connected to one of more strings or wires tied to the occupant's fingers or toes.  If the deceased woke, his movements would ring the bell and sound the alarm.  Cemetery staff could then pump fresh air into the pipe until the occupant was disinterred and rescued.

Naturally, by the time the 20th century rolled-around the widespread practice of embalming obviated the need for grave bells.  Nevertheless, these were a common sight at the graves of Bonaventure's wealthy occupants.  Most of them were later salvaged as scrap for wartime use during the first world war.  Because Mill's bell was cast in bronze it persists to modern time as the last intact grave bell at Bonaventure.

True story.

OCPD

 

Obsessive Compulsive Personality Disorder.

A.personality disorder that's characterized by extreme perfectionism, order, and neatness.

After 20 years of living here I notice the trim on the base of this post is off by a sixteenth of an inch.

Ugh.

Behavioral Finance

A comprehensive financial plan should incorporate all of the Big Five Personality Traits as they influence the scope and direction of the planning process.

Commonly studied by psychologists and scholars of behavioral finance  these trails include:  Neuroticism, conscientiousness, agreeableness, extraversion and openness.   

According to research appearing in Financial Planning Review it is conscientiousness that is by-far the most vital personality trait when it comes to wealth accumulation.

Conscientiousness is highly correlated with an individual's preference for following rules, working hard, carefully organizing tasks and following-thru to see that tasks are completed in a timely fashion.

Accounting for educational attainment and other cognitive variables this trait is also most consistently associated with work and career success.

According to researchers Fenton-O'Creevy and Furnham this trait is also highly correlated with effective financial planning.

You can learn more about this subject here.

Sunday Morning Wall Of Worry

Well then - I've been all over the island.  By myself.  If there were a beast I'd have seen it.  Be frightened because you're like that - but there is no beast in the forest.

What I mean is - maybe it's only us.

- Lord Of The Flies 

 

According to some of my friends on the far right my world is a scary and dangerous place. 

Take this for example.  Countless thousands upon thousands, upon thousands of undocumented immigrants pour over the border every week.  Nobody is there to stop them.  Nobody.  There are no gates, no guards and the border is wide open.  There are no legitimate refugees.  Pouring across our gateless border are countless hordes of rapists, murderers, thieves and prison inmates.  Every last one of them is bringing fentanyl.  I must be afraid.  Very afraid.

There is Critical Race Theory.  I am told it is in every school.  Yup, small children are brainwashed by the dark forces of the left.  This is a fact.  It is pervasive.  One more reason to be afraid.  Or at least sorta paranoid.

Vaccinations are gonna get me.  If I am lucky enough to not die from receiving a vaccine I will be seriously or permanently debilitated by the side effects.  I am counseled to ignore the advice of my doctor.  Best to obtain health guidance from reputable social media sources like Face Book.

And just about the time I get over my jet lag I am told that my world is woke.  Corporate America is woke.  All of government is woke.  The schools are woke. Law enforcement is woke. The military is woke.  Colleges and universities are woke.  Everything has become woke.  Repeat after me:  Woke, Woke, Woke!  

On top of all of this, leftists are gonna hunt me down, round me up and confine me to a dystopian Marxist reeducation camp. This sinister plot is authentic.  The camps have already been constructed and something to be very afraid-of.  VERY AFRAID.

 

Whoa!  

Did I fail to get the memo?  Is all of this craziness a THING nowadays? 

Indulge this blogger while I spread a wee bit of reality check.  

Critical Race Theory isn't taught in any of the K-12 schools where I live.  Not a single one.  Public or private.  No child is being groomed to become transgender.  There are no litter boxes in the preschool or kindergarten classrooms for children who identify as cats.  

I've been vaxxed and boosted for everything from diphtheria,  pneumonia, pertussis, shingles, Lyme, tetanus, polio, smallpox, Covid and more strains of influenza than I can count.  I have lived to tell the tale; although I likely have more microchips floating in my bloodstream than you.  That's a joke; get over it.

I purchase spices from Penzeys and paper goods manufactured by Koch Brother industries.    All of this blather about woke is rubbish.  Political correctness is for cowards and the gullible.

In three decades I haven't gotten a photo of a socialist or a radical leftist on my trail cameras - i figure my abduction and imminent internment is someone's delusional and fallacious fantasy.

To be clear, I worry more about slipping on the ice than all of the lame culture war bullshit that some moron tweets or am subjected-to on social media.   Seriously,  who the heck dreams-up this foolishness?  And what sort of personality believes any of it?

The only serious subject in all of this is immigration and the undocumented.  It's a big deal and eminently worthy of reform and modernization. I'm not afraid of it - I simply want to see it fixed instead of being wielded as a cudgel by Dems and Repubs to keep their respective bases in a constant state of turgid arousal.  

Speaking of immigration; last month, having just boarded and taken my seat, I was witness to armed officers (with dogs) from Immigration and Border Control hustle several passengers (along with their personal stuff) off my international flight to Brussels, Belgium.  Looks to me like they're doing their job and enforcing the law. 

My conclusion?  Humping the burden of fear and worry over mostly imaginary grievances doesn't work for this voter.  Maybe it works with a certain segment of the population but not for the Big Fat Middle. We're not falling for this thin soup that masquerades as an election platform.  What a waste of valuable bandwidth.

Let me give those on the far right some advice.  Free advice too.  Substance and veracity is gold, folks.  If you want to win hearts and minds consider giving it a try.  Or continue to lose elections at your own peril......

 

BOO!

Spring Forward

If you’re like me this semiannual switch between Standard Time and Daylight Saving Time is maddening.  Today I lost an hour of sleep and in November after I set my clock back an hour I’ll still get out of bed in the dark to turn the coffee on.  At the end of the day I’ll pour myself a glass of Merlot in the dark.  This resetting of the clocks is messing with my circadian rhythms.

Daylight Saving Time is associated with the Western world as most countries outside Europe and North America don't observe the ritual. 

Courtesy of CNN research the notion of Daylight Saving Time has a curious pedigree.

1784 - The idea of daylight saving is first conceived by Benjamin Franklin.

1914-1918 - Britain goes on DLS during World War I.

March 19, 1918 - The Standard Time Act establishes time zones and daylight saving. Daylight saving is repealed in 1919, but continues to be recognized in certain areas of the United States.

1945-1966 - There is no federal law regarding Daylight Saving Time.

1966 - The Uniform Time Act of 1966 establishes the system of uniform Daylight Saving Time throughout the United States. The dates are the last Sunday in April to the last Sunday in October. States can exempt themselves from participation.

1974-1975 - Congress extends DLS in order to save energy during the energy crisis.

1986-2006 - Daylight Saving Time begins on the first Sunday in April and ends on the last Sunday in October.

August 8, 2005 - President George W. Bush signs the Energy Policy Act of 2005 into law. Part of the act will extend Daylight Saving Time starting in 2007, from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November.

Last year the Sunshine State decided they had enough of this nonsense and by overwhelming margins the Florida House of Representatives and Senate passed the Sunshine Protection Act and Governor Rick Scott signed it into law.  It will become effective if Congress changes the federal law.  

 

Senator Marco Rubio introduced The Sunshine Protection act of 2019 which would make permanent daylight saving time for all time zones.   President Trump implied support for it  and nothing came of it.  Last year the White House declined to say if President Biden supported permanent daylight savings time. Sheesh.

As for making Daylight Savings Time permanent there is evidence that the frequency of heart attack and stroke increases around the ritual resetting of clocks twice a year.  Benefits of Daylight Savings Time enhance public safety, make better economic sense and may improve our mental health.  Proponents of Daylight Saving Time argue that most people appreciate an increase in daylight hours after coming home from work.  

Speaking for myself - I like the notion of longer, lighter evenings, better health and a happier more prosperous United States.   

Make it permanent.