A Disturbance In The Force

The first of my age cohort, the Baby Boomers, turn 80 this year, 2026.  Born between 1946 and 1964 all 76.4 million of us are kicking-off the new year with our growing dominance of consumer spending.  Why is this important anyway?  The US economy is primarily service-driven; not manufacturing.  Consequently, consumer spending accounts for roughly 68-70% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This means that consumer spending is the largest component of the U.S. economy, and a major driver of economic growth.  More old people and fewer young ones are reshaping jobs and spending in all kinds of ways.  There's nothing nefarious about any of this; it's pure demographics. For instance, nearly all of January's job growth came from the healthcare and social assistance sectors with healthcare employment as the largest contributor to labor market growth in 2025.  

For any of you reading this who happen to be a dues-paying boomer ask yourself what of any of the following applies to you and your own situation. 

Exhibit 1 - The collective wealth of the baby boomers - estimated at over $78 trillion - is fundamentally reordering the global economy.  Retired and no longer accumulating assets boomers are spending discretionary funds while prioritizing quality of life over material accumulation.  Consider this: While younger generations may be tightening their belts due to inflation; boomers are the principal drivers behind a $544 billion travel market in 2026.  

Exhibit 2 - Boomers are more proactive with regard to medical care and lifestyle choices.  Whether it is preventative medicine, diet, exercise, active recreation and smartwatches boomers are investing in their future.  While some may choose to downsize, many are investing in their current homes and choosing to age in place.  This includes high-end appliances, landscaping, home improvements and upgrades in accessibility and other services to simplify daily life. 

Exhibit 3 - Value-based frugality.  Despite their wealth, it took a lifetime of saving, sacrificing and investing for boomers to get to where they are.  Consequently, they remain incredibly value-conscious.  Boomers demonstrate consistent brand loyalty and are more likely to drive their vehicles for longer periods than most Americans. They'll invest in home improvements if they believe it will add value to a future sale.  They're also less likely to spend on themselves and more likely to spend on their family members. 

To be clear, everyone's personal situation is different.  Moreover, as a cancer survivor I am smart enough to understand that anyone's number can be up at any time. Consequently, one day at a time.  Nevertheless, there's no escaping the fact that boomers are growing as a share of the overall aging population.  This demographic, referred to as the pig moving thru the python, along with their financial muscle is going to influence all sorta new business startups and marketing trends.  It's a good time to be alive.

Sound like anybody you know?

Update On The Peanut Gizmo

On the recommendation of my pal, Braumeister, at the start of this month I hung the contraption you see below from a branch on a red maple in our yard.  It is a bird feeder that you fill with peanuts.  Peanuts in the shell; raw, unsalted.   

I bought a big bag of nuts at a local bird food joint.  And while they're clearly labeled:  NOT FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION I suppose if I tried one I don't think it would kill me.  But you never know.  

It took a few days for the local birds to figure-out what it's for and now I'm restocking it almost twice a week.  I figure before too long some other undesirable critter is going to discover it; so it's hung on a branch (likely limber-enough to NOT support a large mammal) from a carabiner using a length of army-surplus metal cable parachute rigging connected to the feeder.  It might just be raccoon-resistant.

These four photographs are a bit of an experiment.  It's an old trail camera on its last legs and the position is all wrong as it's aimed generally into the sun.  I'm thinking I'll have to reposition the cam 180 degrees and relocate the feeder - if the tree and its branches allow.

Photos are from this morning.  Chickadee, white-breasted nuthatch, blue jay and a downy woodpecker.

Stay-tuned....

 

How To Blow-up The Budget

From the WSJ there is this.

According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. debt will rise to more than 100% of U.S. gross Domestic product (GDP) before the end of this year. 

Debt held by the public will balloon to more than $56 trillion by 2036 as annual deficits continue to mount, according to the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office.  By later this year, the federal debt held by the public is expected to surpass the size of the entire U.S. economy.

The main drivers:  increased spending on entitlement programs as the nation's population ages as well as rising costs related to paying interest on the debt itself.  Republicans have taken issue with the projections, suggesting the CBO's assumptions on economic growth are too low.

Here's a closer look at the numbers, in five easy charts.

The CBO projects that the annual U.S. budget deficit will top $3 trillion by fiscal year 2036. The deficit was briefly that high when the federal government spent heavily during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

By fiscal year 2036, the deficit will hit 6.7% of GDP, up from 5.8% in 2025.

Social Security and Medicare costs will drive mandatory spending to 15% of GDP by fiscal year 2036. Mounting debt will increase spending on net interest to nearly 5% of GDP.

CBO projects a $23 trillion deficit from 2026 to 2035, up around $1.4 trillion from its last projection. Tariff revenue will only partly offset effects of the GOP’s ‘one big, beautiful’ tax law.*

Debt held by the public will surpass 100% of GDP this year and is projected to exceed 120% by fiscal year 2036.

 *Projected revenues generated by import taxes are uncertain as a consequence of the recent SCOTUS decision.

  

Captains Of Market Cap

In case you missed it, only four of the 10 largest companies in America were on the list ten years ago:  Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan Chase.

Technology companies - like the Magnificent Seven - are so ubiquitous some days they seems like they'll be around forever.  Nevertheless, change is like trying to sip from a fire hose.  It can change in a giant gush.

Fun Fact:  In 2015 the total market capitalization of the top ten was $3.2 trillion.  By the close of 2025 it was a staggering $19.4 trillion. 

Funny how things change over time.  You snooze; you miss something.

 

Peninsula Still Life

This is singularly the best photo to come across my device in quite a while.

Quintessentially, Door County Winter.....

photo credit - Rosann Hollinger (click on image to enlarge)

   

Eat More Deer

Before sunset today this was the view east from the bedroom window.

I refer to this image as the solution to solving hunger in northeast Wisconsin.

I stopped counting at twenty.

In our household the culinary goal is a weekly venison dish; minimum. 

Lasagna tonight with fresh spinach on the side. 

Next time I’m gonna just incorporate the spinach in the lasagna and be done with it.

Pretty good chow if you can get it.

Eat more deer!

 

Highway Patrol

 

Is this photo a still taken from a Blues Brothers movie?  I dunno.  It appears to be a 1967 Chevrolet Impala Police Cruiser.

In the mid-1960s the Chicago Police Department favored the use of Impalas of this era for their size - sufficient room for two officers and their equipment, winter driving capability, ability to engage in high speed expressway pursuits and their over-all reliability.

This vehicle was produced by GM's Chevrolet motor division as a spec-built fleet vehicle for taxi and police department use.  Consequently, it was assembled with 'beefier' components including: a heavy-duty rear axle including a limited slip differential, heavy duty suspension, springs and shocks, larger sway bars, a reinforced frame, power steering and plain steel wheels with bias-ply tires including 'dog-dish' hub caps.  Later models included experimental front disc brakes but virtually all vehicles produced included heavy duty drum brakes all-around.

 

Tennessee State Trooper 1966 Biscayne model 

I'm familiar with this vehicle line as our household ride in the 1960s included a 1965 Chevy Belair later replaced by a 1967 Chevy Impala SS (Super Sport).  Both of those vehicles were equipped with a 283 (4.6L) V8 and the police version was powered by a 327 (5.4L) V8 rated at 275 hp.  Pursuit-model law enforcement models were generally equipped with a 396 (6.5L) V8 rated at 325 hp.

Hitched to the rear-wheel drive was a 2-speed 'Slush Box' Powerglide automatic transmission - same as my 1968 Pontiac Le Mans convertible.  Later years witnessed the introduction of a 3-speed Turbo-Hydromatic transmission.  

Police units came factory-equipped with a single 'Gumball' red rotating beacon, dash-mounted or column siren control, a Motorola radio console, drive side spotlight and sometimes a steel [partition between the front and real seats. 

From a post just about a couple of years ago is a Wisconsin State Patrol 1967 Chevrolet Biscayne.

This is not a police model but it is a most excellent surviving restoration of a 1967 Impala Super Sport (fully loaded).

Vroom!