Claim Jumping

I have observed the advancement of a homegrown Wisconsin boy, Sean Duffy, from afar.  With some admiration too.  What's not to like about a lumberjack from Hayward, WI?

Indeed, Duffy was a professional lumberjack having competed in Hayward's Lumberjack World Championship on several occasions and winning multiple titles in speed climbing.  He graduated from St. Mary's College of Minnesota with a marketing degree and from William Mitchell College of Law in 1999.  In 2002 governor Scott McCallum appointed Duffy as Ashland County District Attorney where he served until 2010.

In 2010 he defeated state senator Julie Lassa for Wisconsin's 7th Congressional district; formerly held by retiring representative David Obey.  Duffy was re-elected four more times before resigning from Congress in 2019 on account of a newborn child's health complications. After leaving Congress Duffy worked for a consulting group and began co-hosting Fox Business's The Bottom Line in 2023.  

In November 2024, President-elect Donald Trump nominated Duffy to serve as his Secretary of Transportation.  Duffy was confirmed by the Senate on January 28, 2025 and immediately sworn-in.

As cabinet Secretary Duffy isn't generally associated with much of the drama and intrigue that ordinarily follows other cabinet officials.  Much of this is a consequence of a department not generally bedeviled by the culture wars, there is institutional inherited momentum in the pipeline (pardon the pun), ribbon cuttings are positive events and any project delays can be chalked-up to government bureaucracy.  Because bricks and mortar are basically boring background noise Transportation is likely the quietly safest cabinet post on the planet.  Which leads me to this:  Scuttlebutt that Secretary Duffy is taking credit for infrastructure grants signed into law by former president Biden. 

Say it isn't so.

With a modicum of digging it is quite so.

Seems Duffy is touting BUILD grants (Better Utilizing Investments to Leverage Development) as rebranded RAISE grants (Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity) created and funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law signed by President Biden in 2021.  

Critics note that the Trump administration has been resurrecting previously-passed legislation with new names while not always acknowledging their origin under the former guy.

Official messaging from Duffy and the Department frequently describe moving or approving grants emphasizing that the Trump administration is clearing a backlog or getting America building again of previously announced projects.  Such messaging frames the work as a fresh accomplishment by the current administration - omitting any reference to funding under Biden. 

Representative O'Brien meets with Transportation Secretary Duffy to discuss the I-69 Ohio River Crossing.  The ORX bridge involves a mix of federal, state (Kentucky and Indiana) and toll authority funding for the estimated $933 million project.  The states are pursuing $632.3 million in major federal grants, including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act funds. 

The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) signed in 2021 was huge; authorizing roughly $1.2 trillion in infrastructure funding much of which continues to be allocated and spent as you read this.

In the year since Trump took office not a single stand-alone infrastructure law has been passed.  Major federal infrastructure authorizations all stem from laws passed before Joe Biden left office.  

Noteworthy, is the administration has focused on regulation and permitting; pushing changes intended to speed-up infrastructure approvals by means of revising matters such as environmental permitting.  Recent rollbacks of long-standing environmental review requirements aim to reduce delays on large projects which supporters suggest accelerates infrastructure work without creating entirely new federal infrastructure spending authorizations.

Nevertheless, the current administration has not passed into law any large scale infrastructure spending of its own.  Major funding still originates from earlier bipartisan legislation enacted under former President Biden or other existing statutory authority.

It's not exactly like plagiarizing a term paper as much as it is more like stealing someone else's thunder.  Or maybe their lunch from the office break room fridge.  And much like never accepting responsibility for anything that goes awry; the administration is quick to message another's work as their own and take credit and recognition for someone else's efforts.  All in the name of benefiting from unearned achievements passed-off as their own.  

Nothing new under the sun; we've all been to this rodeo before..... 

August Astronomy

As we come upon the end of August it is worthy of note that Saturn begins rising in the east-southeast signalling the official kickoff of a season of Saturn viewing.

Heretofore, as summer commenced, Saturn was a predawn event.  Now it is rising at a time to make late-evening viewing convenient.  Saturn is now found in the southeast sky by 10 PM and is visible to the naked eye.  If you have a telescope you will have an opportunity to view the planet's rings. 

As a consequence of Saturn rising approximately four minutes earlier each night these later-evening viewing hours will only get better and earlier in September leading up to its peak opposition in October.

 

Friday Music

Trio II was recorded in 1994 but not released until 1999, when Emmylou Harris, Dolly Parton, and Linda Ronstadt appeared on Late Show to perform Neil Young's "After the Gold Rush." 

The Glass Harmonica (or Armonica) was played by Dennis James, who remembers the performance in an interview with Rich Bailey in 2002.

Rich Bailey: 

I remember when you appeared with her on Letterman and you discussed the Armonica a bit. How was that? 

Dennis James: 

Well, it was a great surprise. A sort of unspoken message in the air to me before the broadcast was "Do not say anything on the air!”. After all, these things are Linda's appearances. When David L. leaned over his desk and directed a question to me I simply froze - on playback of the dub I can see myself caught and unable to speak. I received a glance from Linda that said to me it was OK and so when he tried again I called back a flip one liner and on things went from there. 

This song has an ethereal quality to it - the voices of angels.

Everyone should be more like Dolly; God speed.... 

Cognitive Dissonance

Free speech is a vital American value, until it’s exercised by drag queens (or Jimmy Kimmel). 

Socialism is a threat to American freedom, until the Trump administration takes ownership stakes in multiple major American corporations. 

Religious liberty is a cornerstone of the American experiment, unless Muslims want to open a mosque or have equal access to religious schools.

August Night Sky

The Full Moon appearing this month is named after North America's largest fish - the sturgeon. Other names for this Full Moon include Green Corn Moon, Grain Moon, Barley Moon and Fruit Moon. 

The Sturgeon Moon has its origins in the great number of sturgeon that were once found in the lakes and rivers in North America.  It’s likely that with the arrival of European settlement the name was borrowed from native-American usage.  

I live close to Sturgeon Bay - named for the large number of sturgeon found here when settlers arrived.  Nowadays, over-fishing has just about eliminated this species from the Great Lakes.  Sigh.  The largest population of sturgeon in the world can be found in the Lake Winnebago waterway system not too far away.

August's full moon is special - as it features a partial lunar eclipse.  This occurs when the earth passes between the sun and the moon.  If you live in the norther hemisphere the earth's shadow is going to creep-across most (but not all) of the lunar surface beginning tomorrow night and into early Friday morning.  

During this event, the moon moves through the earth's umbra, the dark center of its shadow.  As the Sturgeon moon rises, later in the evening - 11:12 PM CST - the moon will dim and as the partial eclipse reaches its peak it will appear reddish-orange.  It will not technically be a full blood moon as there isn't totality; nevertheless, it should be worth staying-up to check it out.  It will last about 5 and a half hours.  Because you are not looking at the sun no special safety precautions are needed.

This will be the best lunar eclipse anywhere on earth until New Year's Eve 2028! 

Fingers-crossed for good viewing conditions for the next couple of evenings.

Trade Policy Trump Style

 

Just about the time you thought we had this wrapped-up, last Friday trade talks with Canada collapsed.

This is fascinating to me inasmuch as just like the decision to go to war with Iran; this administration leaves each and every last decision on all matters of trade and war, including right down to each and every last country, including terms, to the whims of one sole individual. 

Mr. Trump.

And just like Groundhog Day, every day can be a repeat of the prior or maybe something different; all dependent-upon Trump's mercurial personality, his feelings of self-aggrandizement in the moment and generalized impulsiveness.  Some days are predictable, most are tolerable; while the worst ones are like dealing with a whining toddler tossing toys out of his crib.

Mr. Trump's obsessive trade war with Canada is based-upon an imbalance of trade with the United States that is driven entirely by globally-needed oil. They don't like to talk about; but I'll make it simple enough for a layperson to understand.

An interesting factoid is that the US merchandise trade deficit with Canada is essentially an energy story.  In 2024 the US ran a $64 billion goods deficit with Canada, but that deficit disappeared and became a $34 billion US surplus when energy was excluded.  The US also ran a roughly $24 billion surplus specifically in manufactured goods.  Canadian energy exports, namely crude oil, account for the bilateral deficit.

In other words, Canada isn't beating American manufacturers in some broad-based flood of manufactured goods.  Canada supplies the United States with enormous quantities of energy that the US economy needs, while the United States sells Canada more manufactured goods than it buys from Canada.    

That doesn't mean every Trump tariff policy toward Canada is necessarily motivated by the headline trade deficit; Washington has cited border security, fentanyl, autos, steel and other issues.  

In 2025, the United States ran a $46 billion goods deficit with Canada, but it also ran an approximately $85 billion net deficit in energy trade. The implication is that the United States' overall goods deficit with Canada was not the result of a generalized Canadian advantage in manufactured goods; again it was overwhelmingly an energy phenomenon, offset by U.S. surpluses in other categories.

Nevertheless, if the argument is that America is being economically victimized by a one-sided Canadian trading relationship, the numbers don't stack-up.      

This time, and perhaps because the world needs North American oil; and possibly as a consequence of Mr. Trump's ill-advised unilateral war, it looks like Canada has its sights on our looming midterm elections and is digging-in for a protracted standoff with Trump.  I suspect with hopes for a change of venue in their on-again, off-again trade talks with the administration.   Other countries around the world are watching too; following how tit-for-tat retaliation works with Trump's personal negotiation style.  My sense is that Canada is willing to wait this out as post-election the ground may shift enough giving Democrats the upper hand in the House and providing some breathing room and space for normally trade-minded Republicans to find their balls.  Perhaps the Senate is in play too?  Who knows?  Time will tell.

Canada's retaliatory tariffs won't go into effect until after Labor Day and are likely to focus on things like appliances, agricultural equipment, minerals, steel, dairy, pulp and paper.  If Mark Carney were to take a page out of Ontario Premier Doug Ford's playbook, Canada will focus on taking a shot at Trump's base in both key swing states with significant trade ties to Canada (Michigan and other Midwest and Great Lakes states come to mind) along with critical red states such as Texas and Florida.  I can sense Canada's growing outrage and frustration.  After-all, Mr. Trump commenced his second term with demands that Canada become the 51st state.  

Brilliant.  

If Canada's first impression was that Trump is simply a garden variety asshole; I suppose given everything that has transpired since, he's gonna always be an asshole.   

Remember the guy who claimed that the tiny island nation of Madagascar was picking on us?  Yup, Howard Lutnick.  Whispered Palace Intrigue would suggest that the recent deal fell apart when Mr. Lutnick got bent out of shape over his impression that US Trade Representative Jamison Greer's dealmaking strayed onto Lutnick's turf; namely automobiles, steel and aluminum.  Imagine that; infighting among administration supplicants and sycophants.  In the mean time, the relationship with our single largest trade partner on the planet suffers and US consumers pay the price.

I cannot predict where this ends as I no longer have my crystal ball.  That said, and because we're only a couple of months from the mid-terms, I'll go out on a limb and predict Canada imposes more pain on American consumers who are already restless and grumpy about Mr. Trump's sloppy war and haphazard trade policy.  Between now and the election there will be an abundance of overblown reality television drama-style nonsense before we learn how this ends.

Meanwhile, as far as negotiation tactics go, Trump’s tariff threat hurts US automakers and consumers more than anyone else.  If anybody is under the impression that all Canadian auto and parts production will be re-shored in the US in the next four months; they are certifiably delusional.  That is a MAGA fever dream.

In closing there is this.  Further evidence that import taxes (tariffs) are ultimately paid by consumers; Mr. Trump is ostensibly and temporarily lifting them on imported beef.  And if you think temporary antics like this are a substitute for intellectually-solid trade dynamics or that the price of a Whopper is going to go down I have a bridge to sell you.

Such is the result of leaving decision-making on trade entirely in the hands of an impulsive and incurious individual.  Just like like a war in the Middle East that has gone south; you're gonna get sketchy results.... 

 

Mighty Oak

While working last weekend on the construction of a deer stand on the lean-to of the barn (granary) I spied this.

A tiny oak seedling seeking freedom thru the crack in the deck.

Imagine that.

An acorn likely gathered and secreted by a critter in its lair beneath the porch decking.

Against the foundation, middle of the deck, the acorn germinates in near darkness.

Miraculously, it seeks and follows the smallest amount of sunlight filtering through the crack.

And emerges triumphantly into daylight.

Astonishingly, this happens to be the little oak that beat nature's odds.

I'm not betting on it's long term plans for survival or its options; but I'm gonna leave it be for the present.

Some things in nature never cease to amaze me....