The Greenland Deal

Last week we learned the details of the 2026 security agreement between Greenland, Denmark and the United States.  

What is it? It is a continuation and expansion of the 1951 Defense of Greenland Agreement.

What it's not?  It is not a full replacement or a land acquisition. 

Core points: 

• Dropping previous talk of the U.S. buying the island it respects Danish sovereignty and Greenland's right to self-determination while introducing several major new clauses that go far beyond the original Cold War pact. 

• Building-upon the existing U.S. Pituffik Space Force Base, the agreement authorizes two new U.S.bases at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig along with expanding air, maritime and undersea operation rights across Greenland.

• Non-EU and non-NATO nations are expressly banned from holding a major stake in sensitive infrastructure, mineral rights, or opening military facilities.

• The U.S. has direct input on screening foreign investments requiring consensus before outside invests occur.

• Unlike typical treaties with renewal periods this agreement has no expiration date and applies permanently - even if Greenland eventually votes for complete independence from the Kingdom of Denmark. 

• The expanded footprint supports U.S. polar early-warning systems and a broader NATO posture in the arctic to counter Russia and China.

Score one for the good guys and NATO.  Just goes to show going about it diplomatically produces positive results.

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As the Cold War began and the threat of nuclear attack became ever more real, the United States and the Kingdom of Denmark agreed that Greenland would host three American airbases to counter the nuclear threat from the Soviet Union. 

Read about Project Iceworm here.

What Drives Energy Prices?

It has been interesting to me to be a casual observer to some of my FB acquaintances seizing upon the president's current dilemma with a Middle East War to take a cheap shot at him over this year's rise in energy prices.  While at the same time, other of my FB acquaintances have felt it necessary to personally come to the president's defense over the turmoil in the energy markets.  As if any of this profligate use of bandwidth is going to change anything.

Both camps seem to have seized upon the superficial idea that presidents directly control the price of a barrel of oil, natural gas or refined commodities like gasoline and diesel.

As a recovering financial guy I will tell you that the President doesn't have a secret lair in the White House bunker where they can dial the price up or down for any of this. 

So, what does impact the pricing of energy?

Global supply and demand primarily.  Oil is a global commodity.  A sudden surge in global demand or interruption of supply pushes prices up worldwide.  The opposite happens with a sudden drop in demand or surge in supply.  Natural gas has increased it's share of the global energy market with the growth in trade of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).  Nevertheless, because natural gas in North America moves through regional pipelines this build-in infrastructure restriction means that pricing remains local; not global. 

 

As for oil, geopolitics and supply chains play a critical role.  Conflicts such as wars, refinery bottlenecks, shipping interruptions and even pandemics can impact prices.

OPEC+ is a producer group that can exert substantial influence over oil prices. It meets, determines production targets and changes in output can materially affect the global supply-demand balance.  

Gasoline is more complicated.   There are four principle contributors to higher gas prices.  In May of 2026, for example, roughly 52%, of the cost of a gallon of gasoline was the price of crude oil.  Rule of Thumb:  Every dollar increase in a barrel of crude = 2.4 cent increase in the cost per gallon.  Refining and profit margin are 22%, state and federal taxes 12%, followed by distribution and marketing at 15%.  The percentages don’t add up to a perfect 100% on account of rounding, but you get my drift. 

Differences in state and local taxes, seasonal blend changes, refinery economics, transportation costs and regional supply constraints explain inequities in pump prices across state lines.  All of the foregoing elements create even more layers between the Oval Office and the pump.  The crux of the matter is there is no single government entity that sets your retail price.

Insofar as a president's impact on this it is a fact they can influence energy markets - sometimes significantly - but they cannot control them.  

Consider this. 

Sanctions and export licensing are fast-acting tools; blunt and mostly geopolitical.  Sanctions on a major producer, or easing them, can move the price of crude within days and weeks.  Same for tariffs that raise input costs or tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). 

Unlike short-term emergency fixes that offer temporary relief; policy shifts take time to affect markets.  Production tools such as leasing, permitting and environmental regulations that people argue about are slow-acting.  Federal lands and waters account for roughly a quarter of domestic oil production, so federal leasing and permitting matter; but their impact on national oil prices are neither immediate nor one-for-one.

The use of the SPR is the closest thing to a dial in a White House bunker except it's a release valve for a fixed, finite inventory; not a tool to influence long term prices.  The 2022 release - roughly 180 million barrels over several months in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine - is a real life example.  

The SPR's impact comes from both the physical addition of supply and the market signal that additional supply is available.  But it is a short-term tool, not a way to permanently alter the underlying supply-demand balance. It is also self-limiting. The SPR is not bottomless and a big release constrains the next president's options; so it's fast but not free. 

Finally, oil is an odd duck because prices don't simply reflect immediate supply and demand. Market expectations play a role. Traders price-in what they expect supply and demand to look like in the future.  That is why even a threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, an expected production cut, an anticipated refinery outage or an announcement of an SPR release can move prices before a single barrel actually changes hands. 

Blaming or thanking the current or former occupant of the White House for what you pay at the pump makes for social media click bait but does not take into account the clout of global market economics and other more nuanced influences.

Anything else is magical, wishful thinking.

Learn more here:   https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

Fungus Among Us

From our walk today there were fungi; everywhere on the trails. 

The first one is possibly a Shaggy Mane and the orange one is likely a Jack-o’-Lantern.  

The remaining ones are anybody’s guess. I’m not picking them. 

Ran the trail camera trapline too.

Stay-tuned…

Is It Safe?

Plenty of chatter about whether, or not, Artificial Intelligence is safe.  Including its ability to singularly wipe out the human race.

Between you and me, I'm of a mind that AI is more likely to be a force for good.  If I worry about anything it would be a nefarious human using AI to commit harm on other humans.

Of course, I got the book in the photo as a Christmas present in 1968.  Almost six decades ago it was prescient.  If you've read it like I have you'll recall this...

 "Open the pod bay doors, HAL." 

"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."

 

As an aside, if you have that first edition, with the original dust jacket, it's worth a princely sum. 

September Astronomy and Friday Music

This year the September full moon is called the Harvest Moon. 

The Harvest moon can occur in either September or October because it coincides with an astronomical event – the autumnal equinox. The full Moon that occurs nearest to the Autumnal Equinox (September 22 or 23 depending-upon your time zone) takes on the name Harvest Moon rather than its traditional name – the Full Corn Moon or Barley Moon.  As a consequence of an orbital quirk the moon is at a very shallow angle to the eastern horizon rising 20 to 30 minutes later each night instead of the usual 50 minutes.  This geometry provides for several consecutive evenings of bright twilight illumination right after sunset.  The phenomenon historically allowed farmers to work later into the night bringing-in their harvest.  

The indigenous Anishinaabe people of the our Great Lakes region call this moon Waatebagaa-giizis or Waabaagbagaa-giizis, the Leaves Turning or Leaves Falling moon.

In the Northern Hemisphere and in our time zone the Harvest Moon tomorrow night, yet will appear 99% full this evening.

And enjoy the music...

The Case of the Purloined Brain

If you think stealing an election is a big deal; how about your noggin?

Albert Einstein's brain was stolen on April 18, 1955 by Dr. Thomas Stoltz Harvey, the Princeton Hospital pathologist who performed his autopsy.  He took the brain against Einstein's stated instructions to be cremated.

Yikes! 

Lest you find this ghoulish, in the 19th and 20th centuries it was not uncommon to collect and study the brains of high-achieving people - including notorious criminals - to look for physical traits linked to their accomplishments and behavior.

Harvey was under the impression that the brain of the world's leading physicist must possess some distinct physical abnormalities.  While not a neurologist, and likely acting on impulse, Harvey found himself in a unique historical moment to preserve the organ before it was lost forever.

Einstein had specifically left instructions to be cremated and thus prevent his mortal remains from being idolized.  Harvey managed to obtain reluctant and retroactive permission from Einstein's son, Hans Albert, on the strict condition that the brain be used only for legitimate scientific research. 

While the brain no longer exists as an intact organ it has been divided into hundreds of fragmented specimens and microscope slides scattered across several locations. 

The vast majority of the tissue is safeguarded at the Penn Medicine Princeton Medical Center.  Access to this collection is restricted to the public and therefore not accessible to casual visitors. 

Philadelphia's Mütter Museum is the only location you can actually see pieces of the physicist's brain.  There is an exhibit where you can view 46 cross-section slices of the brain tissue mounted on microscope slides.   

Alas, Harvey distributed individual pieces and slices to friends and acquaintances around the world.  While many of them have been accounted-for there are likely some that are that are in private hands or university collections as historic oddities.  

In the end, Einstein's remains were cremated and subsequently scattered at an undisclosed location.

You can learn more about this story here.

Back To The Movies

Universal Pictures was responsible for the creation and promotion of the flat-topped monster famously played by Boris Karloff.

In my lifetime I've seen:

Frankenstein (1931)

Bride of Frankenstein (1935)

Son of Frankenstein (1939)

The Ghost of Frankenstein (1942)

Frankenstein Meets the Wolf Man (1943)

House of Frankenstein (1944)

Abbott and Costello Meet Frankenstein (1948) 

In adulthood I've seen:

• Young Frankenstein (1974) Mel Brooks' legendary parody of the Universal films.

• Mary Shelley's Frankenstein (1994) A faithful, high-budget adaptation directed by Kenneth Branagh and starring Robert De Niro as the monster.

Then there was this: 

• Frankenstein (2025) Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein

It stars Oscar Isaac as the brilliant, yet arrogant surgeon and Jacob Elordi as the tragic monster.  It is reasonably faithful to the original novel and the spectacular gothic design, moody lighting, and distinct period details add to its excellent production value.

You can find on streaming television.

I recommend it.