Guardians Or Gladiators?

Almost a year and a half ago I published a short post titled: Following Orders.  I was musing about how a future Trump administration might deploy the military within the country's borders.  Fast forward to the present and we're learning more about this almost every day; and while I am famous for bad predictions that post from April of 2024 was seemingly prescient.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

I've never served in the military; consequently I can only speak as a civilian.  What I think I know is that fundamentally there are significant differences between local law enforcement officers and army national guard soldiers.

Civilian law enforcement academies and technical colleges focus on things like criminal law, civil rights, de-escalation and community engagement.  Day-to-day law enforcement includes enforcing criminal law, traffic safety, conducting investigations and community policing.  Sheriff deputies and police officers are seen as front line guardians of law and order.  And, at least where I live, they are a familiar presence as a consequence of daily interaction with the local population.

National guard soldiers receive military training including things like combat readiness, tactical operations, discipline and a military occupational specialty.  Some military police units train for law enforcement, but their orientation is different from civilian policing.  Guard units are populated by citizen soldiers who have civilian jobs or perhaps attend school while training part-time and sharpening their readiness to act when called upon by their state governor or the President.   

Nevertheless, national guard troops do serve in temporary support roles.  This can include crowd and riot control, (civil unrest events), disaster response (hurricanes, floods, wildfires), infrastructure protection (power plants, airports, hospitals) and augmenting first responders when local resources are overwhelmed.

Mostly, the guard is our federal reserve force for wartime missions and overseas deployment.  They blow stuff-up, defeat opposing forces and achieve battlefield dominance.  Soldiers are war-fighters; modern day gladiators.  

Between you and me I think having armed troops on our main streets is unsustainable for the long term.  It is an expensive short-term fix.  Furthermore, it is poor optics; if it were to happen around here the tourists would stay home and businesses would be grumpy.  The former is fact the latter is opinion.

There has been chatter on social media including people suggesting that president Trump is seeking to accomplish a couple of things; namely the normalization of military deployments to conduct law enforcement.  Secondly, provoking some kook or nutjob to commit an act of political violence thereby escalating tensions by such means that he can invoke the insurrection act, declare martial law and suspend elections.  Sounds rather conspiratorial, eh?  Inexplicably, most of my previously self-identified libertarian acquaintances have gone silent on this subject so we can save a discussion of the Posse Comitatus Act for another day.  

I happen to believe that Donald Trump eventually gets around to attempting everything he says he wants to do.  And he has repeatedly said he would consider or invoke the Insurrection Act, including in public statements in June 2025 during his current presidency.

Meanwhile, Speaker Michael Johnson's home state of Louisiana, and New Orleans in particular, boast some of the the highest murder rates in the country.  One has to wonder why Governor Jeff Landry called-up and deployed Louisiana guard troops to Washington, DC; instead of Speaker Johnson's home district?  The correct answer is political theater; nevertheless, all of this can be combustible.  See paragraph eight (above) about the president shouting Fire! in an otherwise quiet theater.

The administration is populated with pliant sycophants who will unquestionably act on the president's orders.  Therefore, the execution of sketchy orders will fall to the next line of senior military officers.

It is gonna be interesting how this unfolds.....

The Math Doesn't Work

 We're going to make a lot of money and we're going to cut taxes for the people of this country.  It will take a little while before we do that, but we're going to be cutting taxes and it's possible we'll do a complete tax cut because I think the tariffs will be enough to cut all of the income tax. 

- President Trump, April 27, 2025  

The line from the White House Information Minister, various Cabinet Secretaries and the President himself is that we are awash in tariff revenue wealth.  Millions, billions and trillions of dollars; all willingly paid by other countries.  The president has even floated the notion about creating an External Revenue Service to collect the tariffs and replacing the Internal Revenue Service in collecting income taxes.

We were at our richest from 1870 to 1913.  That's when we were a tariff country.  Perhaps the president has drawn his inspiration from 19th century America immediately before the establishment of the federal income tax.

Of course if you know your American history when tariffs were the primary source of federal revenue government was much smaller; federal spending was barely two percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).   Nowadays, federal spending is north of 23% of GDP.  It would be impossible to rely on tariffs to meet current spending levels.  Heck, we're already running ginormous annual deficits that are slated to increase further with the passage of recent legislation. 

Tariffs (sometimes called a duty) are a tax imposed on imported goods and services.  The tariff is not paid by other countries; the US import company is required to pay the tax.  This makes imported goods more expensive to US companies and consumers. Consequently, domestic producers may benefit from reduced competition potentially protecting domestic jobs and industries.  Decreased competition may also result in domestic producers raising their prices as we have seen in the steel industry. 

In 2024 individual income taxes generated roughly $2.4 trillion in revenue to the government representing nearly half of all federal revenue.  Because tariffs apply to the narrow sector of imported goods they would likely generate only a fraction of that amount resulting in ballooning deficits.

Furthermore, because tariffs apply to imports (as opposed to broad-based income) this would result in a disproportionate economic impacts with industries relying on imported materials or components being hit the hardest.  

Tariffs also increase costs to domestic companies and consumers. 

Conversely, if tariffs replaced the income tax your wages/salary would theoretically become tax-free.  This shift would allow you to keep more of what you make.  Sound appealing?  As a trade policy tool tariffs are probably more effective than as a revenue generator.  

The economic reality is the challenge of replacing income tax revenues with tariffs would require import taxes on a scale of enormity so high as to become disruptive to consumers, business, supply chains, trade relationships and the US dollar.  They won't fix our country's  persistent problem with annual deficits or balance the budget.  The notion of issuing everyone a government check and calling it a tariff rebate is absurd.  Tax the citizenry with import duties and then return a small piece and call it a tariff dividend?  PT Barnum had a term for this so if you have a rational explanation I want to hear it.

Meanwhile, the best summation of this challenge can be found over here at the Tax Foundation.  It's a short read of only a few minutes and worth your while.  

Finally, revenues from import taxes have been growing for months, and the latest data shows that the U.S. has collected $130 billion from them as of August 15.  That is $73.8 billion, or 131.2% more, than the same time last year. But that’s still far short of the $2.4 trillion federal income taxes brought in last year.  The running totals are updated daily and can be found here at the Trump Tariff Income Tracker.  You might want to bookmark this web page so you can follow along.

Bottom line?  The math doesn't work.....

 

Drama At The Oval

Last Friday's Oval Office meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky was ostensibly intended to discuss peace negotiations concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to finalize a natural resources agreement.  However the meeting devolved into a heated exchange with Trump accusing Zelensky of being ungrateful and risking global conflict by not pursuing peace with Russia.  Vice President JD Vance criticized Zelensky for discussing policy matter publicly, leading to an abrupt end to the meeting without a signed agreement.  

Naturally, the incident drew significant attention both here and abroad with numerous world leaders expressing support for Zelensky and criticizing President Trump's approach.  Leaders from countries such as Canada, Norway, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and Moldova condemned Trump's remarks and reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia's invasion.  

Given the contentious nature of the meeting, the choreographed timing of Vance's entry into the fray gives the appearance of not merely a theatrical performance, but a planned public setup.  The first thing that came to mind was the boardroom scene of the Final Episode following another lame season of The Apprentice.  I digress.

The lack of any substantive outcomes and subsequent international reaction seems to imply that the meeting had significant implications beyond just the political theater.  Precisely what they are remains to be revealed.  Is Trump ten moves ahead in a three dimensional chess match; or is he simply chaotic?  You pick.

Nonetheless, I sort of saw it coming; like a slow moving train wreck.  There were earlier signals from Secretary Hegseth,  the US joining both North Korea and Russia in the vote at the United Nations (China abstained), along with Trump's parroting of Kremlin talking points.  I shared with a couple of pals that I figured Trump was going to orchestrate things in a way that Putin would get the whole shebang in the end.  Time will tell.

Does this suggest we've signaled to the world that we're done with 70+ years of transatlantic alliances; trading all of it for an alliance with a ruthless blood-soaked gangster like Vladimir Putin and his rapidly failing Russian state?

Or was this a garden-variety Mafiosi protection racket?  Listen-up youse.  Give us your raw earth minerals, or your dry-cleaning shop, izza gonna burn down, see.

Why does Trump have a hard-on for Putin? 

Why isn't Putin being held to account?

Does Zelensky understand a bad deal is better than a good war?

Judging from the reaction in the cesspool called Face Book, the base is loving the red meat.  Of course the base has also turned a blind eye, or loves, (you pick) the forcible abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.  Similarly, supporters of Ukraine were quick to post their own collection of cut and paste unoriginal memes.  Although I didn't note anyone volunteering to send their children or grandchildren over there to join the fight.

It's too soon and uncertain to know where this takes us.  Although for the first time this year I watched all the Sunday morning talking heads on both sides as White House spokespeople twisted them selves in convoluted knots in an attempt to explain this is ten moves ahead three dimensional chess and not simply chaos.

What I've learned over the years is that Trump means what he says and he closed the Friday drama with this:

This is going to be great television.  I will say that.

 

Thanks for reading and stay-tuned. Hardly a dull moment nowadays. 

Theater At The DOGE

I asked ChatGPT: 

How much budget savings so far from Musk's Department of Government Efficiency?

As of March 2, 2025, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), let by Elon Musk, reported the cancellation of 128 contracts recently, resulting in approximately $60 million in savings.  Since Its inception, DOGE reports terminating over 3,000 wasteful contracts.

However, analyses by external organizations have raised questions about these reported savings.  An NPR investigation found discrepancies in DOGE's claimed savings, suggesting potential overstatements. 

Additionally, data from DOGE's "Wall of Receipts" indicates that nearly 40% of the cancelled contracts are expected to yield no actual savings. 

In specific instances, DOGE identified inefficiencies in software licensing.  For example, the General Services Administration (GSA) reportedly held 37,000 WinZip licenses for 13,000 employees, leading to a claimed $9.6 million in savings after addressing the surplus.

While DOGE reports significant contract cancellations and some specific savings, external evaluations suggest that the actual budgetary impact may be less substantial than claimed.

Despite these efforts, the reported savings represent a fraction of DOGE's ambitious goal to cut $2 trillion in federal spending by July 4, 2026. 

The notion that Elon Musk and his government efficiency apparatchiks can bring down the debt is a tall order.  To be clear, I take no issue with rooting-out waste fraud and abuse; just give the chainsaw schtick and lame theatrics a rest.  

At this particular moment in time our outstanding debt stands at $36 trillion (give or take).  Closing a handful of government agencies and laying-off government workers makes for great theater but it isn't gonna get the job done.  The savings are much, much too small to achieve the stated goal. Anybody who actually believes nibbling around the edges like this will fix the real problem is engaging in what I call magical wishful thinking.

You see, just like a household budget that has gotten out of control, fixing this problem is going to require hard work and making difficult choices.  

You're probably thinking - Like what?

Like raising taxes, cutting defense spending or reforming Social Security and Medicare.  Or all of the foregoing.  These are unpopular choices for good reason.  Nobody wants to do them.  They're like going to the theater to watch a crappy production.  Nobody wants to do that.  The people demand good theater.  Bread and circuses if you will.  I might be wrong, but I happen to wonder if the current collection of clowns places a higher priority on theater and spectacle than hard work.

So, are we going to continue to be witness to the slow roll reality TV performance or get serious about fixing the real problem for the next couple of generations.

Anyone care to make a friendly wager?

How To Win Friends And Influence People

In further news, this past weekend Donald Trump gave voice to his planned Retribution Tour after he retakes the White House.

Trump has vowed to prosecute and punish his political opponents; promising the arrest and imprisonment of President Biden (and his family), Vice President  Kamala Harris, former Vice President Mike Pence, Senators Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, former Congressman Adam Kinzinger, Representatives Adam Schiff, Jamie Raskin, Pete Aguilar, Zoe Lofgren and Bennie Thompson, retired Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley, an extensive list of judges, district attorneys, state election figures, local and federal law enforcement officials, National Archives employees, charity and religious organizations who aid migrants, journalists and media organizations and Mark Zuckerberg. 

Former Wyoming congresswoman Liz Cheney was singled-out for particular scorn and undeserving of due due process.  Elizabeth Lynne Cheney is guilty of treason, and Trump called for her to be prosecuted by a televised military tribunal reserved for enemy combatants and war criminals.

I know I've missed quite a few individuals and organizations who have made the enemies list which is growing by the day.  

The base loves this Roman Colosseum "feed them to the lions" stuff. Yet I'm still trying to figure-out how this makes for a successful reelection campaign strategy.  Big Fat Middle; remember?  

And suppose someone else runs on the Democratic ticket?

We're certainly living in interesting times.....

Just The Facts Ma'am

With all due regard and respect for Dragnet's Joe Friday, Thursday evening's debate was rife with inaccuracies.  I'm not talking about the typical election year hyperbole; I'm talking about intentional mistruths and outright lies.

A couple of the whoppers that stand out include:

We have a thousand millionaires in America, I mean billionaires.  And what's happening?  They're in a situation where they in fact pay 8.2 percent taxes.

- Biden

Pants on fire!  Biden is referencing a 2021 White House study concluding that the 400 wealthiest taxpayers paid an effective tax rate of 8 percent. 

Because the estimate included unrealized capital gains in the calculation the resulting effective tax rate is fallacious.  Smoke and mirrors wrong. A deception.  That is not the way the tax code works in real life.

People are taxed on capital gains only when the asset (stock, real estate, business, whatever) is sold.

According to the IRS, the top 1 percent of taxpayers (defined as income of $548,000 and up) paid taxes averaging 26%.

 

He's destroying Medicare because all of these people are coming in.  They're putting them on Medicare.  They're putting them on Social Security.  They're going to destroy Social Security.  This man is going to single-handedly destroy Social Security.

- Trump

Some of you readers may recall my own experience with applying for Medicare the summer of 2020.

My application for coverage was declined.

Yup.  Because I happen to have been born in another country; Germany in-fact.  No matter that I have been paying into the system forever and hold a valid US passport. The Social Security Administration had me classified as a non-citizen.  I was undocumented and therefore ineligible.  I can only speculate; but this was likely a bureaucratic record-keeping holdover traced to my registration for the draft in the very early 1970s.  The local draft board was somehow convinced that because I held both a US Army birth certificate and a German birth certificate my dual citizenship would entice me to flee the country and thereby circumvent any attempt at conscription and free trip to Vietnam. The fix was I had to renounce any claim to German citizenship.  After I raised my right hand and swore an oath to absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty, of whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen, I was issued a Certificate of Naturalization.  As a sole citizen of the US of A my draft-dodging moment was over.  

The people over at the Social Security Administration eventually cleared-up any confusion over my citizenship status and I am covered by both Medicare and Social Security.  Happy ending to a stressful three months.

Donald Trump is a liar.  And this lie is a howler.  Sure, I know his followers believe this BS but the truth of the matter is that undocumented individuals are ineligible for both Social Security and Medicare.  

That a dazed and confused Joe Biden didn't nail Trump to the wall over this has me stumped.

The entire Thursday event over at CNN was an unparalleled shit show.

History Lesson

Late last week Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senators Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) were vocal among Republican leaders suggesting the use of the Army National Guard to suppress campus unrest across the country as students protest Israel's war in Gaza.

Sure, I understand the attraction of muscle-flexing for the GOP base voters back home but personally I think this is a bad idea.  Consider this.

Peaceful protest enjoys a long and storied history in this country.  Violent protest is decidedly rare.  And always wrong.  In most instances campus police and local law enforcement is adequately-equipped to respond appropriately.  Rioting rising to the level of necessitating the deployment of national guard troops is rarer still.  The most recent example, of course, was the Capitol riot on January 6, 2020.  Border governors have also deployed national guard troops to deter border crossings.  That is their prerogative.

Campus protests today generally have not risen to the level of widespread riot, criminality such as arson, looting, property damage and physical assault or loss of lives over vast numbers of campuses and American cities.  I'm not seeing it where I live or the destruction of large Wisconsin campuses and urban areas.

What I am seeing has been largely peaceful protest.  If someone want to live in a pup tent on a campus green to demonstrate solidarity with Hamas that's their business.  It may be misguided - but it is nonviolent protest.  And campuses have the authority to tolerate it, or to remove the encampment. 

Same for those who close a highway or a bridge to demonstrate against the plight of the Palestinian people.  It is non-violent - but is illegal.  Logically, if I am delayed in my commute to my day job this disruption in my life will unlikely render me sympathetic to the protestor's cause.  Just the opposite; I will be pissed-off.  But college age children (yes children) and young adults don't think logically.  They're too young to have developed mature adult thinking and the consequences of rash decisions.  Easily persuaded their glands and emotions complicate matters further. 

Consequently, much of the response to most of this is driven by social media apoplexy.  Click bait.  An added complexity is first amendment speech rights on public v. private institutions of higher learning.  Private colleges and universities have the advantage of restricting speech; because they're private.  Public institutions play by a less restrictive set of first amendment rules.  To be clear, violence, threats of violence, assault, destruction of property, barricading buildings and depriving others of access to an education is not protected speech.  Hate speech is protected because there are very fine people on both sides.  But I digress. 

One of the advantages of being an older, mature adult is that I've lived a lifetime of experience and had personal contact with the deployment of troops both here and abroad to keep the peace.  I don't take it lightly.

Moreover, I have a vivid memory of a tragedy that took place fifty-four years ago yesterday on the campus of Ohio's Kent State University.

After Friday bar time, May 1, 1970, several hundred students broke shop windows, sprayed anti war graffiti on buildings, harassed motorists and generally behaved like drunken vandals.  The following day the mayor contacted the governor convinced that outside agitators were fomenting violence and that the Ohio National Guard be deployed to Kent State University.    

Because they already had a sense of the emotional state of the student body, officials at the university already had a plan.  Namely, relying on university police along with county sheriff deputies, and the Ohio State Highway Patrol.  But nobody consulted them.

Saturday evening student Vietnam war protestors set fire to the campus ROTC building.  Equipped with riot gear, university police successfully made arrests, dispersed the rest and put out the fire.  Nevertheless, in short order several hundred Ohio National Guardsmen arrived in jeeps, trucks and armored personnel carriers.

Locked in a close primary race, Republican Governor Jim Rhodes dismissed local and university officials out of hand.  Since performative politics is nothing new, he declared, We are going to eradicate the problem.  They're the worst type of people that we harbor in America.  I'm sure he was referencing the long-haired, commie pinko undergrads exercising their draft deferments.

Monday morning, May 4, 1970, three thousand students gathered for a previously-planned anti-war rally.  It escalated to a flammable mix of both a protest of the war and now the military presence on the campus. 

Just over a hundred weary guardsmen, armed with loaded rifles, advanced to break-up the crowd.  Sweating under gas masks, and helmets they couldn't hear commands, they were poorly led, untrained in law enforcement, and without a plan. 

Clueless protesters continued to march in the direction of the nervous troops.  As the closing distance narrowed shots broke out.  

In thirteen seconds four students were killed outright and nine wounded.  One of them permanently paralyzed.

I recall at the time a popular sentiment that the student protestors got what they deserved.  I disagree.  Nobody deserves to be shot and wounded or die a violent death  I didn't feel that way then and nothing has changed since.  It was a shit show.

My sentiment; deescalate a confrontation by means of civil authorities.  Deploy guard troops as a last resort.  Here's some advice; free advice too.  If someone wants to whip a crowd at a rally into a frenzy and riot; run the other way.

Quote Of The Day

God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent.  Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come.  I pray that our country listens.

- Marjorie Taylor Greene

Blockade Ends

Under pressure from Senate Republicans, Florida Man and Alabama senator, Tommy Tuberville abruptly agreed to drop his objections to eleven remaining four star officer promotions.

Following almost a year of blocking military promotions over Pentagon policy ensuring service members could receive time off and travel expense reimbursement to seek abortion or other reproductive health services in another location Tuberville performed an about face.

The promotions were swiftly approved yesterday by unanimous consent - allowing the Senate to wrap up this important business before the holiday break.

I don't know if this is further evidence that you shouldn't take hostages you aren't prepared to shoot or poetic justice for forcing the US military to fight his culture war.  Either way, coach Tuberville is a dick.

Blockade Hangover

Last week we learned that Florida resident and GOP senator for Alabama, Tommy "Coach" Tuberville had lifted most of his holds on military promotions.  Alas, since then we learn that the persistent holds on the top positions - Joint Chiefs of Staff and several theater commands - has resulted in a domino effect through the chain of command.

Think of it like a bad hangover coming on the heels of the Coach's ten month binge of political theatrics.

Putin continues his relentless efforts to annihilate Ukraine,  Hamas continues to put innocent Palestinian civilians between themselves in their effort to annihilate Israel.  US forces in Iraq and Syria face military threats on a daily basis.  Carrier battle groups have been deployed in reasonably short order.  The world is a dangerous place. 

Tuberville's abuse of power is nothing new to American politics.  Nevertheless, his jerking around of military leadership has every possibility of impeding military operations and can be problematic to our security interests given the context of the previous paragraph.

Tuberville is entitled to take a stance on the abortion issue but being a dick about the military chain of command to score political points is out of line.  Just my opinion.  But if it walks and talks like a dick and looks like a dick; a dick is a dick.  Coach is a dick.

I'm sure this will get sorted-out over time; the military can handle a Florida panhandle dick.

Meanwhile if you're interested in a short but good read; Politico scored an exclusive on the drama behind the closed-door meeting where coach got tackled.

Blockade Lifted

Florida resident and Alabama senator, Tommy Tuberville, announced today that he is ending his months-long blockade of hundreds of military promotions.

Facing growing bipartisan pressure over his meddling with military readiness Tuberville said that he is embracing an off ramp suggested by Senators Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) releasing all of his holds on military officers at the 3-star level and below.

Roughly ten nominations for 4-star generals and officers will remain on hold. 

This announcement represents an about-face from the senator who for ten months had blocked senior military promotions over a Pentagon policy that offers time off and travel reimbursement for service members seeking abortions or fertility care.

Tuberville's behavior is evidence of flaws and vulnerabilities in our institutions where one individual can put a stop to hundreds of critical national security positions.

Tuberville is entitled to his views on abortion yet I struggle to see a connection to filling key defense and security positions.

I suppose that makes him just a garden variety dick.

The Hunger Games

When I tapped-out this post yesterday it occurred to me that I didn't have to blog about House Republicans still without a speaker.  Whew!  That white smoke you saw floating from the outhouse stovepipe signaled that as of Wednesday we finally have a Speaker of the House.  Representative Mike Johnson of Louisiana has won the gavel after three weeks of Republicans eating their own.

I was thinking to myself, Jeez, Tom.  You certainly are living during interesting times.  

The party of Ronald Reagan is done; replaced by the party of possibly the 47th president; Donald Trump.

A world where populism has replaced policy.  Fiscal responsibility is but passing lip service.  Choosing  winners and losers has supplanted free trade.  Pugilists are venerated.  Institutionalists are pariahs.  Chaos over stability.  In ousting Kevin McCarthy the GOP has deposed their most prolific fundraiser in recent memory and Johnson is going to have to pick-up the slack.

It would appear that election denialism looms large in the selection of a House speaker.  It is worth remembering that Johnson is a close ally of former president Trump and was one of the key architects of Donald Trump's failed, false efforts to overturn the 2020 election.  Johnson supported a Texas lawsuit seeking to to invalidate electoral college votes from Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Yes, a lawsuit allowing an individual state to invalidate the electoral votes of a different state President-elect Joe Biden won in the 2020 election.  Nuts, eh?

In a win for Federalism the Supreme Court called BS.  This is worth remembering.  Especially the steaming, heaping, Texas-sized longhorn pile of bullshit part of it. 

So, it's time for the House to put on their adult underpants and demonstrate a capacity to govern.  We're about a month away from a government shutdown, there are carrier battle groups steaming into position, hot wars in Ukraine and Israel and bad actors in Russia, Iran, China and North Korea who've been loving every moment of the recent self-inflicted lunacy.

It sure ain't my daddy's Republican Party anymore.  Lately it's been look'n more like the Hunger Games.....

Requiem For My Kevin

In the run up before his bid for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to show his support for former president Trump and schmooze with his allies.  Earlier this year Trump blessed his bid for House Speaker and bestowed-upon him the nickname My Kevin.  On the fifteenth ballot, with 216 votes, McCarthy became Speaker off the US House of Representatives.

Then this happened last week.

Predictably, Florida Representative Matt Gaetz filed a motion to vacate and it passed 216 to 210 with the unanimous support of house democrats and eight republican mutineers.  McCarthy became the first speaker removed from office.

And Donald Trump did not pull his bacon out of the fire.  

What gives? 

 

In the wake of McCarthy's ouster this photo has been making the rounds on the interweb.

It is the cover of Young Guns - a wonky 2010 dissertation authored by then House members Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy.  

My recollection was this was the splashy debut of the GOP's rising stars.  The standard-bearing triumvirate of the Grand Old Party.  A new generation of policy-focused conservative leaders representing the bright future of the party.

Ryan served as Speaker for four years, Cantor two years and McCarthy nine months.    

A short thirteen years later this reads like an obituary.

 

The GOP is now the party of Trump. 

The party of Reagan is dead.  Neo-conservatives on life support. There will be no more wonky treatises about extending the life of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  No  serious policy discussions over trade.  Fiscal discipline?  Nope.  If there is a party platform it is a promise to advance election denialism, generalized grievance and a promise of retribution.

Earlier this year I predicted 2023 would have very few dull moments.

Stay-tuned.....

__________________________________________________________________________

There is a population of conservatives, Republicans, center-right individuals and independent-minded voters who place a high value on facts and the truth. Marginalized because they refuse to embrace baseless conspiracy theories nor demonstrate sufficient fealty and obeisance to the former guy - exile is their cross to bear. 

A Little Bit Slutty and A Little Bit Nutty

Fresh on the heels of her vaping, groping, crotch grabbing and general bad behavior that got her thrown out of a Denver theater, Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) has been outed by the Fact-Checkers over at The Washington Post over a wacky claim about payments to undocumented immigrants - which also happens to be almost a couple of decades old and irrelevant to the US.  According to Boebert:

Biden is giving each illegal family $2,200 per month plus a free plane ticket and free medical care.  If you come to this country illegally, you get everything handed to you on a silver platter.  If you're a struggling American citizen, you get nothing.  You actually just subsidize this foolishness. 

Of course all of this is made-up.  Under US law, documented migrants who have made a valid and successful claim to have fled persecution or war receive a one-time payment of $2,375, of which $1,275 may be used for critical direct assistance such as rent, food, clothing and furnishings.  That's it.  If you are undocumented you get nothing.

As it turns out, variations of this hoax have been circulating on social media for more than seventeen years; originating with immigrant policy in Canada.

Alas, this is what passes for intelligentsia in the GOP nowadays.  I suppose if you are a little bit slutty, being a little bit nutty gets you more clicks and a thumbs-up amongst the performative politics crowd.

Blockade

These are observations made by Peter Zeihan on the blockade that Alabama Senator Tommy "Coach" Tuberville has made on armed services promotions.  I've been following this as it is fascinating to me that a single US Senator can single-handedly block promotions within the ranks of the US military establishment.

Obstructionism is hardly new to the political scene in Washington.  And while Tuberville is entitled to his opinion on abortion I'm struggling to see a connection to filling key defense and security positions.  The system is hopelessly flawed when one individual can bring the filling of critical national security positions to a grinding halt.

Zeihan claims that under normal circumstances if you learned that high-ranking military personnel were losing security clearances and access to critical information, you'd probably expect to hear some sound rationale. Unfortunately, that's not the case because the current greatest threat to our national security is orchestrated by Tuberville over abortion policy.

Senator Tommy Tuberville has placed a unilateral hold on nominations and confirmations of military officials because he doesn't like the Biden administration's current policy of allowing service members to travel for abortion services. Consequently, the affected military personnel cannot access the classified information necessary for strategic planning.

Abusing power to manipulate outcomes is nothing new for American politics; however, political deadlocks that impede military operations are detrimental and problematic for the country's security interests. Given the context of the Ukraine War and rising tensions with China does this pose a potential risk?  Is is something that as Tuberville characterizes it, no big deal?  Or is it a perfectly acceptable not to jerk military leadership and their families around for political theater?

Does Zeihan have a valid point?

And, BTW, Alabama Senator Tuberville lives in Florida.  Apparently that's not a big deal for the people of Alabama.  I have to wonder how us Cheeseheads would feel about one of our senators living in Chicago or Rockford....

Higher Intelligence

In case you've ever wondered about the source of my frustration; nowadays, this is what passes for GOP intelligentsia....

Blockade

Meanwhile in Washington the standoff between Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) and the Biden administration continues.  The Alabama senator is single-handedly blockading more than 300 general and flag officer nominations for all branches of the armed services over the Pentagon's policy of paying for the travel expenses for service members to receive abortion and other reproductive services.

Last time I looked it seemed that those in the service don't get to pick where their command says they will be posted.  Moreover, one-fifth of our armed services members are women.  And with abortion and reproductive healthcare now determined by the respective states the pentagon policy is an accommodation for troops unable to receive such services in a state that prohibits them.  If I had to hazard a guess, the pentagon would also pay for travel for other specialized medical care unavailable where a service member is posted.

Oh well, now the troops have to fight a culture war to satisfy a lone senator's appetite for performative politics.  

I wonder if the blockade is also impacting school enrollment for the dependent children of military families?  Or job applications for civilian spouses?  Housing applications and moving plans?  Planned and pending retirements?  Promotions and career advancement too?  Readiness?

Anyway, the senate beat it out of town last month without resolving any of this and isn't supposed to return to work until after Labor Day.  The blockade continues.

Just another reason for the former football coach to tear things down and burn them up.

Of course, that is his prerogative; nevertheless, this is evidence of flaws and vulnerabilities in our institutions where one individual can put a stop to hundreds of critical national security positions.  Tuberville is entitled to his views on abortion yet I struggle to see a connection to filling key defense and security positions.

Downgrade

In case you were snoozing a couple of weeks ago, Fitch Ratings downgraded the country's long-term AAA credit rating citing the steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last twenty years as the reason for Fitch's lack of confidence in our fiscal management.

Hat's-off to the performative politics crowd who increasingly delight in tearing stuff down and burning it up.  The downgrade was likely met with no shortage of fist-bumping by those morons. 

The downgrade, the second in history, is unlikely to curb the global appetite for Treasury securities; nevertheless, it is evidence that the financial community has concerns about the political brinkmanship that seems to have possessed certain corners of Washington including the very recent averting of a debt ceiling crisis and default.  

The first downgrade to our credit rating occurred in 2011 when S&P dinged our bond rating in the midst of an earlier bout of self-inflicted debt ceiling brinkmanship.

Between you and me, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid constitute the 800 pound gorilla in the room.  And I suspect Fitch is paying attention to the lack of action on reform of these demographic time bombs. The Big Three now constitute more than one-half of our entire annual federal budget.  Regrettably,  among some groups in Washington the solution to this problem is an unnatural preoccupation with someone else's gender dysphoria.  Am I the only one that considers this creepy and a distraction from more serious matters?  I digress.

In any event, inflation has been slowly retreating, corporate profits are up and the economy seems strong enough that we'll dodge a recession. Inasmuch as I had to give-up my crystal ball at retirement only time will tell.

Meanwhile, If you're forced to only purchasing AAA-rated securities you've one less choice to pick-from and we'll have to wait for the impact on our long term borrowing costs until the Fed holds its next rate-setting meeting.  

There are plenty of other nations that shared AAA bond ratings in 2011 that have since been downgraded by one of more of the rating agencies.  This would include peers such as Canada, France and the UK.  While we remain one of the most influential of countries as a consequence of the size, strength and depth of our economy; the economic condition is only one contributor to a rating qualification.  Bottom-line, the likelihood that a nation's bondholders will be paid on time, in full and unconditionally remains paramount.  A strong economy is a contributor, but dysfunctional fiscal governance can outweigh that strength.  The remaining AAA-rated nations have better track records that us when it comes to fiscal governance.

Alas, the performative politics crowd, who increasingly delight in tearing stuff down and burning it up, have gleefully announced their intention to press forward with more debt limit shenanigans and a government shutdown this fall.  Morons.

Performative politics has real world consequences to our county's reputation, fiscal and economic health and the same for the life savings of the rest of us.

If you take delight in this bullshit you need to get your head on straight.

Playing The Victim Card

As an occasional and casual fan of country music I'm having a chuckle over all the valuable bandwidth consumed by the feigned outrage over Jason Aldean's new song.  I include outrage from both sides of the divide.  Umbrage over the song and outrage in response to Aldean and his defenders perceived victimization.

Is this serious?

If you don't care for the song, don't torture yourself listening to it.  And precisely where and how does a song inspire victimization?

Frankly, as far as country songs go this one isn't particularly inspiring and in my view quite formulaic.  I was speculating this morning if it was composed by a focus group and not a serious country artist.  A song to provoke feigned outrage among a divided populace.  Adroitly-playing the victimhood card.  My, oh, my.  Just like performative politics nowadays.

Imagine that; insulted victims to boost downloads instead of talent and an aspirational message.  Nope.  That's just too conspiratorial.

Anyway, it's an interesting social experiment to observe people being led about by the nose over a very average piece of music.  Alas, country music nowadays is mostly unexceptional.  There are standouts, of course; but on a historical scale, most current artists are too dilute to hold a place in history.

This is the Gold Standard of country music.....

Blockade

Meanwhile, required to vacate the position after four years, Gen. David Berger stepped down as US Marine Corps commandant this week. The Marine Corps will be without a Senate-confirmed leader for the first time in more than a hundred years as a consequence of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL).  

Gen. Eric Smith has been nominated to fill the position, but will serve in an acting capacity as his confirmation has been held-up by the junior senator's pledge to hold-up all senior military confirmations and promotions that require Senate consent until such time as a Biden rule allowing travel reimbursement for service members traveling across state lines seeking abortions and related care is rescinded.

Senator Tuberville's obstructionism has blocked 250 nominations and effectively jammed-up some planned retirements in the ranks.   

This could also jam-up the nomination of Air Force Gen. CQ Brown to replace Gen. Mark Milley who steps down as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in September of this year.

Tuberville's actions have unsurprisingly been a source of frustration to White House and defense officials and drawn the ire of of the national security community and members of his own party.  Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell had this to say a couple of months ago:  No, I do not support putting a hold on Military nominations.    

This arm chair general has ascertained from reliable sources that none of this has impacted military readiness in a meaningful fashion.  Nevertheless, this is evidence of flaws and vulnerabilities in our institutions where one individual can put a stop to hundreds of critical national security positions.  Tuberville is entitled to his views on abortion yet I struggle to see a connection to filling key defense and security positions.

Obstructionism is not new to the political landscape in Washington.

Watch him double-down on white nationalists in the military at the 7:40 mark. The Senator from Alabama is an interesting dude.....

 

 

White Nationalism

noun

1. the belief, theory, or doctrine that white people are inherently superior to people from all other racial and ethnic groups, and that in order to preserve their white, European, and Christian cultural identities, they need or deserve a segregated geographical area, preferential treatment, and special legal protections.