Situational Awareness

We happen to have plenty of pollinators winging around the joint.  Naturally, that is a consequence of creating conditions conducive to supporting them; namely habitat.

Anecdotally, it seems to me the numbers have diminished over the years and have dropped-off from the high water mark of 2019.  Don't take my word for it, if you peruse the labels located in the left margin of the blog homepage anything to do with Monarchs or Butterfly Biology is clustered over a handful of years six to nine years ago.  Of course it's also possible my taste for insect subject matter has changed too.  Nevertheless, my anecdotal observation on the raw numbers seems pretty solid.

Anyway, a few days ago The Missus was potting some plants on the picnic table and spotted this newly-emergent monarch sitting of the driveway beneath the table drying its wrinkly wings.  Under ordinary circumstances this moment would pass entirely unobserved.

Likely the first generation born of an earlier migrator.  

You can learn more about the generations of Monarch butterflies here.  And pay attention to what's going around in the natural world.  Situational awareness you know.... 

It's The Economy Stupid

A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers. 

As we began the second year of Donald Trump's second term in office by traditional measures our economy was in decent shape.  Most forecasts put 2026 GDP growth around 2 - 2.5% with a solid, steady expansion and little risk of recession.  

Interest rates were expected to ease or stabilize while tax and spending policies supporting business and consumers took effect.  

Productivity gains and demand would lead to business - technology in particular - to post record profits.  All while artificial intelligence would boost efficiencies, margins and long term growth potential.  

The labor market was expected to remain near full employment levels with the prospects for American business and consumers looked much brighter following SCOTUS' striking-down of the president's import taxes.

Then President Trump unilaterally decided to go to war with Iran.  He did not ask for, nor receive the approval of Congress.  The president did not take the matter before the American people to make the case for war; although roughly a month later he did did make a formal prime time address to the nation on April Fools Day.  We heard a restatement of already-familiar talking points and were told the war was near completion and wrapping-up along with something about bombing them into the stone age.  With the exception of Israel, the president did not consult with our European allies or other global partners.  

Why is any of this worthy of mention?  The year 2026 had bright prospects  and by the end of February the president set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.  I think the president has stepped in it this time.

With the exception of Trump's war-loving MAGA base most of America disapproves of the war.   

Consequently, it should come as no great surprise that recent surveys of self-reported well-being have suggested that Americans are feeling discouraged and possibly becoming grumpy.   

Why is this important?  I hate to sound like a broken record but the American economy is not driven by manufacturing; it is a service economy.  With summer approaching the expectation at the beginning of the year was that of consumers spending more on travel and entertainment than last summer.  Accounting for two-thirds of all economic activity, it is consumer spending that fuels the US economy.  With the global disruption of energy supplies and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz all bets are off.

I've blogged on this subject from time-to-time and mentioned the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey which came in with preliminary results late last week.

The Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 11% to a historic low of 47.6.  If these numbers hold by the time complete data is announced at the end of this month this represents the lowest reading in the survey's 74 year history.  In case you're interested, the previous record low of 50 was at the peak of Biden-era inflation.  

I'm not at all surprised.  I may be a retired financial guy but I know that average folks struggle with wrapping their mind around abstract economic data such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP), but everyone understands the gas pump.  Last week national prices for a gallon of regular gasoline hovered around $4.15 with diesel at $5.50; up roughly 39% from before Trump went to war.  Oh boy howdy.

Additionally, according to the US Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index, small business optimism fell for a second consecutive quarter this past week.  Just 28% of small business owners say the economy is in good health; down 10 points from the previous quarter.

Finally, driven by sharp spikes in energy costs, this last week we learned inflation is up Big Time. Raspberries and blueberries and fresh produce in general have risen in price as a consequence of increased transportation costs.  So when I suggest the President Trump has stepped in it; I'm doing so because his unilateral war in Iran may turn out to be a serious-bad unforced error.  While I may grouse about the increased cost of fresh produce the impact of Trump's excursion in Iran is being felt in both myriad and profound ways across the globe.

I don't want to come across as the skunk that showed-up at your garden party but these are three data points that are blinking like glaring red warnings on the instrument panel of the airplane you are piloting over a vast uninhabited rain forest without a landing strip in sight.

While not much of this is life altering to me; that is simply not the case for a many of my countrymen.  Worst-case, people are nervous about making ends meet. Best-case, they're anxious about possibly altering or canceling a summer family vacation.  Between you and me I think the president actually cares.  Less about anyone's hardships; but more about the midterms and polling. 

The missus purchased airline tickets since the war began and both wartime fuel and baggage surcharges were assessed.  So yeah, I'm feeling a wee bit grumpy too.  Hardly at all as a consequence of cost; but mostly because none of this nonsense has so far improved my lot in life and made the world any safer.  For my sake and yours I sure hope Trump fixes this.  

You can learn more about the University of Michigan data here.

Spot The Critter

Unless it happens to be wild turkeys, birds aren’t easy to photograph on a trail camera without something to attract them.  Which is an OK idea.  Every summer I've been putting a camera on the oriole feeder to record who's visiting and this winter I've been doing the same with a peanut feeder.  But if you really want results put a camera on a road-killed whitetail.  Oh boy howdy.

Anyway, I captured a rare photo of this bird recently and I figure it likely pounced on some prey animal to trigger the camera shutter.  It also took me awhile to ID it and I ended-up emailing the photo to a wildlife biologist for verification.

It's a red-shouldered hawk (Buteo lineatus); a very rare winter sighting as this raptor migrates south to the gulf coast and at least to Illinois for the winter. This bird is characterized by striking black-and-white checkered wings and a loud 'kee-aah' call.  Their red shoulders are visible when perched or in flight. 

Their diet includes small mammals, amphibians and reptiles.  While this sighting is a first, they do nest here and are highly territorial returning year after year to the same location to breed.

This bird requires large, contiguous blocks of mature forest, particularly bottomland hardwoods near rivers or wetlands.  As a consequence of habitat fragmentation this bird’s status in Wisconsin is threatened.

Every once in a while the trail cameras deliver a real keeper image.

And this is a bonus. 

Compulsion

The primary diagnostic source for psychologists and psychiatrists is the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM).  The current revised text editions is the DSM-5-TR, and is published by the American Psychiatric Association.  Known both here and abroad, it is the standard reference for the classifying and diagnosing of mental disorders.

While I majored in psychology as an undergrad a million years ago I'm not suggesting I have even the slightest capacity to diagnose even a quirk in personality, much less a serious psychosocial disorder.  Nevertheless , in case you have been wondering lately about what's going on here at the blog; there is this....

 

Fact or Fantasy?

As a major voice in the American Libertarian movement the Cato Institute focuses primarily on policy analyses and independent research of contemporary topics including subject matter related to foreign policy, regulations, taxes and libertarian-influenced public advocacy.  

 

Naturally, over the last decade most anyone I'm acquainted-with who previously self-identified as libertarian have, for the most part, gone full-on MAGA.  Any of the remaining few diehard libertarians have gone underground or silent. Either way you slice it none of them are engaged in any meaningful dialogue with me anymore.  Which is too bad.  Productive dialogue lost and in some instances friendships broken is a waste.  I'm not sure how to fix or repair that condition; or if it is even worth the effort.  Time will tell and apologies for the digression.  

 

The purpose of this post is to discuss a recently-published commentary from the Cato Institute titled:  Trump's $18 Trillion Fantasy.  This article also appeared in The Dispatch on February 19, 2026 immediately preceding the recent groundbreaking SCOTUS tariff ruling.  You'll find it linked more than once in the post and I encourage you to read it at your leisure.  What follows is a summary of Cato's critique of White House claims that tariff policies have secured more than $18 trillion of new investment in the United States. 

 

They've performed yeoman's work in producing this commentary and hopefully this summary will tweak your interest in rolling-up your sleeves and engaging in some cognitive dissonance.

 

The key criticism from Cato is that a purported $18 trillion in new investment into our economy claimed by the White House is unsubstantiated and doesn't hold-up under scrutiny.  Trump's hyperbole and puffery is famous; and Cato describes the figure alternately as fantasy or a hoax correctly pointing-out that the number is nearly as large as the entire GDP of China.  Lacking any published evidence from the departments of Commerce or Treasury, or the Federal Reserve the real number, whatever it may be, is naturally much, much smaller.

 

The White House lists 132 'deals' totaling approximately $9.6 trillion; the lion's share of that doesn't come close to meeting the definition of 'new investment'.  Significantly, this figure includes previously-announced or planned technology ventures, routine and on-going business expenditures, orders already in the pipeline and vague promises lacking any enforcement mechanism.  The later are basically a verbal IOU with a promise of 'we'll see'.  

 

Foreign 'deals' are even sketchier as most of the 'pledges' lack even the creditworthiness of a verbal IOU as they come from countries unable to afford them anyway; or the respective government lacks any authority to dictate private business investment.  Previous pledges to purchase military aircraft and equipment or those that come with an implied Trumpian threat of a 'protection racket' do not count.

 

In my own view much of this is political theater intended to pacify Trump's mercurial tendencies before the Supreme Court brought-down the hammer on inconsistent acts provoked by one sole personality. 

 

On tariffs alone, Trump's claim of a manufacturing boom doesn't jibe with the continued decline of direct investment in American manufacturing which, in reality, has been falling and is continuing to fall uninterrupted.  Sure, tariffs may induce some domestic investment through protectionism; nevertheless, this comes at the cost of higher prices for business and consumers.  The math doesn't work.

 

Cato's concludes that the $18 trillion figure is a politically-motivated exaggeration used to justify a flawed and inexplicably contorted obsession with a high tariff regime that is lacking any basis in recorded economic data or accounting.

 

But don't take my word for it.  Read the the commentary in its entirety and draw your own conclusions about how much of it is fact or fantasy.

 

We've been to this rodeo before. 

 

 

More Agricultural Surrealism

President Trump announced yesterday a $12 billion bailout for struggling farmers as he looks to shore up the finances of some of his most loyal supporters whose financial fortunes have been hurt by his trade war.

During his first term, Mr. Trump directed more than $20 billion in economic support to farmers after China boycotted U.S. products in response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs.  Everything Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is enumerating are higher in price today largely as a consequence of import taxes.  You know - tariffs. 

 

This bailout is not a rescue. It is the predictable outcome of a policy cycle that begins with tariffs, produces retaliation, and ends with federal money used to shield a loyal constituency from damage the administration created.  This is absolutely exhausting. 

 

Tariffs were sold as strength. They functioned as economic self-harm. China responded exactly as every trade economist predicted, and farmers absorbed the shock. Now public money is used to steady a group valued for its political loyalty while other sectors harmed by the same policies are left to navigate the fallout alone. 

 

This selective insulation needs to be called-out. When government protects one constituency from the costs of its own decisions while allowing others to bear the full impact, accountability collapses. Policy becomes performance. Consequences become optional for some and unavoidable for others. Neither an economy or a democracy can function for long on that kind of asymmetry.

Create a problem, then drop $12 billion on the people who voted for this problem. Then blame Biden.

After all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over NYC Mayor-Elect Zorhan Mamdani; Trump and MAGA are going full on socialist. 

Surreal.

 

Of course, we've been to this rodeo before.... 

 

 

Friday Music

Graham Nash is a British/American artist best known for his contributions to the Hollies and Crosby, Stills and Nash.  He was inducted in the the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame as a member of the later in 1997 and as a member of the Hollies in 2010.

His music has been featured here from time to time and a little over a year ago we had the pleasure of seeing him perform here on the peninsula.

The song, linked above, is performed here later in life as a nice acoustic set.

Bus Stop....

Fine Dining

click on image for a closer look

On the way to class this morning I spotted one of our resident bald eagles accompanied by three juveniles dining on a road-killed whitetail in a neighbor’s field.

The third juvenile had just taken to the air; look for it in the center of the photo (trees in the background).  

Bald eagles develop their distinctive white head, neck, tail feathers and yellow beak and eyes around five years of age. 

Want to read previous posts on the subject of bald eagles?  Use the handy Label feature to the left or click on this link. 

More Soviet-Style Economics

Beef prices are up 15 percent over the past year according to federal inflation data released Friday.  One contributing factor is low supply and high demand.  The herd has shrunk as a consequence of recent droughts and high feed costs.  The second contributor is trade taxes (tariffs) on imported beef.  The high cost of beef has been a primary contributor to a price increase for groceries of 3.1 percent this year.

 

In another unsurprising example of his on-again, off-again trade policies - president Trump threw American ranchers under the bus with the announcement that he was unilaterally quadrupling beef imports from Argentina - tariff-free.  And that domestic beef producers should lower their beef prices in response.

 

The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil, Trump wrote on social media.

It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!

Soybean farmers were among the first to find themselves in the crosshairs of Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs with China. Since May, China has effectively boycotted American soybeans as a response.  And now it's the cattlemen.  This is absolutely exhausting.

The domestic agriculture sector is already struggling with the rising cost of fertilizer as a consequence of tariffs and labor shortages driven by the president's immigration agenda.  The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggested; The result is not merely a short-term disruption, it could signal a sweeping reconfiguration of global agricultural trade stretching from Latin America to Europe and Australia.  

I'm not a big fan of conspiracies although I'm not surprised if some ranchers believe this is driven by the president's desire to help out his buddy, Argentina President Javier Milei.

It likely is some of the foregoing along with an extra helping of old school centralized economic planning at the whim of one guy.  You know; Soviet-Style.

Exhausting

Depending on your priorities a lot can be done with $30 to $40 billion.

President Donald Trump has prioritized his friendship with the president of Argentina.

Javier Milei, nicknamed El Loco for his eccentric manners, is one of the few world leaders who attended Trump’s inauguration. Now, with his country facing a dire economic crisis, Trump is sending El Loco $40 billion in a not-at-all subtle effort to help him win reelection later this month.  Given the fact that Argentina's credit rating is basically junk you can kiss our money good bye.

And here’s the conundrum:  during Trump’s first term in office he started a trade war with China. When China responded by buying soybeans from Brazil instead of American farmers the resulting bailout cost all of us more than $35 billion.

Now, Trump’s doing it again, and another ginormous bailout will follow. 

America’s soybean crop is worth at least $30 billion. And once again, China pulled back and hasn’t bought any of our soybeans. Not a single, solitary, bean; much less the $12.6 billion they would have purchased from us at this same time a year ago.

So, where did China get their soybeans? 

Argentina.

The country now getting $40 billion from us.

Trump might have used that $40 billion to reinstate health insurance premium tax credits he insists on letting expire. So the government is shut down, Americans are seeing skyrocketing health insurance bills and farmers are hoping for a bailout check because the president wants to help a friend in a country that’s taking our spot in the global marketplace.

If you're still convinced this puts America First or if Argentina is ever going to pay us back you might just be El Loco. 

I don't see how any of this advances your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  For you readers who are Trump devotees I'm waiting for the explanation.  Meanwhile, all this winning is exhausting....

Bean Counter

President Trump's recent proposal to prop-up the troubled economy of his pal, Argentina President Javier Milei, with a $20 billion aid package his raised the hackles of Democrats and Republicans in farm states as farmers struggle under the burden of the president's on-again, off-again, tariff policies.  

China hasn't purchased a single soybean from the United States since May of 2025.  And following Treasury Secretary Scott Bissent's announcement of the aid package for Argentina the Chinese flipped us the bird and purchased 2.66 million tons of Argentinian soybeans after Argentina waived their grain export taxes.  

Naturally, American farmers who voted for Trump and elected Republican officials who represent them are becoming grumpy. 

In case you're wondering what this means in dollars and cents, a year ago China had already placed orders for 40% of our soybean exports.  This year; not a single shipment.  Not a single, solitary bean.  And because China retaliated for Trump's tariffs with tariffs on soybeans, US exports of the crop are already down 51% and $3.4 billion from 2024. 

I suppose I have to wonder if this is more about propping-up a Trump ally or a mercurial trade policy directed by executive order?  Your guess is as good as mine. 

Meanwhile, American soybean growers are struggling with balancing their checkbooks while White House trade policy has jacked-up the price of fertilizer (most of which comes from Canada), increased the cost of farm machinery and pretty much vaporized a significant segment of our agricultural export market.

What next?  The administration has already floated a plan to have US taxpayers bailout domestic farmers with billions upon billions of dollars for soybeans they cannot sell.   

Of course, we've been to this rodeo before; so I can predictably tell you how it likely plays-out.  Don't believe me?  Type: soybeans in the search box in the upper left corner of the blog homepage and you'll be privy to a walk down memory lane of Trump 1.0 agriculture policy.

Maybe some day we should have a discussion of old-school, Soviet-style, centralized economic planning.  Meanwhile, If you honestly believe any of this makes sense I'm all ears.....

Explain This To Me

When I had a day job I was a Certified Financial Planner™ practitioner.  In the financial advisory world a CFP^® would be the equivalent of a CPA in public accounting.  I held a half-dozen securities licenses, four insurance licenses and was associated with an SEC registered investment advisory firm; a fee-based fiduciary.  I am not an economist; yet I know my way around the subject and took some measure of pride in making difficult content matter easy for a client to understand.  Economic themes and investment markets continue to interest me.  

As I look across the economic landscape and the on-again, off-again, inconsistent tariff 'deals' personally and individually negotiated by the President no one has adequately explained why the import tax policy is even minimally beneficial or necessary in replacing the proven track record of free trade over the last 75 years. I am mystified as to how raising taxes on business and consumers creates wealth, advances commerce and contributes to the betterment of our financial lot in life. 

Recently a federal appeals court ruled that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are an overreach of his use of emergency powers as president.  The so-called reciprocal tariffs - imposed on nearly every country the US trades with - are being illegally imposed.  This case will come before the Supreme Court so we should know more before too long.

Most weeks the President says, does or provokes something like this that flies in the face of the most basic and incontrovertible economic fundamentals.

Tariff policy likely played a role in the July jobs report.  And because the report did not conform to the President's world view he killed the messenger.  Ironically the July numbers were revised upwards a couple of weeks ago.  August added a weaker than expected 22,000 jobs but shed jobs in June for the first time since the pandemic.  Yes, there will be further revisions as more data is collected.

The President's seeming failure to understand that tariffs are a tax is further complicated by his belief that a trade deficit is consistent with being taken advantage-of.  Consequently, our largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery, John Deere, is grappling with ever higher steel and aluminum tariffs adding more than $600 million this year alone to manufacturing costs.  And because China retaliated for Trump's tariffs with tariffs on soybeans, US exports of the crop are already down 51% and $3.4 billion from 2024.  The president's capriciousness as it pertains to import taxes means that unless something changes really quickly a host American soybean growers will have less money to purchase more expensive John Deere machinery.  

Canada supplies up to 85% of US fertilizer and a 35% import tax on Canadian imports has further burdened American farmers with unnecessary volatility.  I have a trade deficit with my local butcher.  He's never purchased anything from me.  Can anybody explain this madness to me?  

The President's mercurial personal style doesn't inspire much confidence either.  Trade negotiations result in different countries getting different terms and terms can change overnight on a whim or Trumpian fit of pique.  What corporation would undertake a 3 to 5 year plan to move an assembly plant to the US with the knowledge that:  (1) The president could change his mind or back out of the deal without advance notice, (2) The president is out of office long before the project is close to completion and, (3) Your shareholders may revolt as a consequence of both.  Look no further than the billions of dollars of losses suffered by domestic auto manufacturers as a consequence of import duties.  

Then there is the business of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and interest rates.  One of the reasons our economy hasn't tipped into recession is its ginormous size, diversification and complicated resiliency.  Someone needs to maybe explain to the President that you micromanage the US economy at your own peril. Nothing new under the sun in that regard.  Naturally, with the economy flashing warning signs The Fed cut rates 25 basis points just the other day; and hinted at more of the same.

Speaking of interest rates, the Big Beautiful Bill that was recently signed into law is going to blow-up our mounting debt by an estimated figure north of $3.4 trillion. Government borrowing crowds out commercial borrowing; always.  Will this drive interest rates north further down the road?  Time will tell.

I'll close with the President's manic understanding of supply/demand economics and his conflicting and incomprehensible messaging on energy.  On one hand the President calls for cheaper prices at the pump all the while falling back on the refrain Drill Baby Drill.  Someone needs to take the President aside and explain that lower prices discourage drilling.  Which explains why business drills for oil or gas; not the government.

Lest you get the mistaken impression that much of this lunacy is discouraging to me; perish the thought. Every day is another opportunity to observe the President wave his cape like a matador and produce another bright shiny object with which to distract.  The singularly madcap economic stuff is priceless. 

As long as the training wheels don't fall off it's a never-ending source of new material.

Guardians Or Gladiators?

Almost a year and a half ago I published a short post titled: Following Orders.  I was musing about how a future Trump administration might deploy the military within the country's borders.  Fast forward to the present and we're learning more about this almost every day; and while I am famous for bad predictions that post from April of 2024 was seemingly prescient.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

I've never served in the military; consequently I can only speak as a civilian.  What I think I know is that fundamentally there are significant differences between local law enforcement officers and army national guard soldiers.

Civilian law enforcement academies and technical colleges focus on things like criminal law, civil rights, de-escalation and community engagement.  Day-to-day law enforcement includes enforcing criminal law, traffic safety, conducting investigations and community policing.  Sheriff deputies and police officers are seen as front line guardians of law and order.  And, at least where I live, they are a familiar presence as a consequence of daily interaction with the local population.

National guard soldiers receive military training including things like combat readiness, tactical operations, discipline and a military occupational specialty.  Some military police units train for law enforcement, but their orientation is different from civilian policing.  Guard units are populated by citizen soldiers who have civilian jobs or perhaps attend school while training part-time and sharpening their readiness to act when called upon by their state governor or the President.   

Nevertheless, national guard troops do serve in temporary support roles.  This can include crowd and riot control, (civil unrest events), disaster response (hurricanes, floods, wildfires), infrastructure protection (power plants, airports, hospitals) and augmenting first responders when local resources are overwhelmed.

Mostly, the guard is our federal reserve force for wartime missions and overseas deployment.  They blow stuff-up, defeat opposing forces and achieve battlefield dominance.  Soldiers are war-fighters; modern day gladiators.  

Between you and me I think having armed troops on our main streets is unsustainable for the long term.  It is an expensive short-term fix.  Furthermore, it is poor optics; if it were to happen around here the tourists would stay home and businesses would be grumpy.  The former is fact the latter is opinion.

There has been chatter on social media including people suggesting that president Trump is seeking to accomplish a couple of things; namely the normalization of military deployments to conduct law enforcement.  Secondly, provoking some kook or nutjob to commit an act of political violence thereby escalating tensions by such means that he can invoke the insurrection act, declare martial law and suspend elections.  Sounds rather conspiratorial, eh?  Inexplicably, most of my previously self-identified libertarian acquaintances have gone silent on this subject so we can save a discussion of the Posse Comitatus Act for another day.  

I happen to believe that Donald Trump eventually gets around to attempting everything he says he wants to do.  And he has repeatedly said he would consider or invoke the Insurrection Act, including in public statements in June 2025 during his current presidency.

Meanwhile, Speaker Michael Johnson's home state of Louisiana, and New Orleans in particular, boast some of the the highest murder rates in the country.  One has to wonder why Governor Jeff Landry called-up and deployed Louisiana guard troops to Washington, DC; instead of Speaker Johnson's home district?  The correct answer is political theater; nevertheless, all of this can be combustible.  See paragraph eight (above) about the president shouting Fire! in an otherwise quiet theater.

The administration is populated with pliant sycophants who will unquestionably act on the president's orders.  Therefore, the execution of sketchy orders will fall to the next line of senior military officers.

It is gonna be interesting how this unfolds.....

Glamping

Recently I burned about eight gallons of diesel brushing-out 3.5 miles of trails, a six acre wildlife opening and the ancestral campsite.  Campsite, you ask?  Yup; in the early years it was there we camped.  Eventually we purchased a park model trailer home, The Villa, adjacent to Potawotomi State Park and commuted back and forth from there to here and back.  Yup; we lived in a trailer park too.  And then eventually built a house (second home) and finally moved here permanently.

Over the years the Missus and I have been acquainted (and married) we've done a great deal of camping.  We've camped across the breadth of Canada, south to the Gulf of Mexico, all of the southwestern US, most of Wisconsin and we even took a Jeep trip off-road across the rocky mountains.

With two homes, a tree farm to maintain and the creep of maturity and eventually retirement the camping itch doesn't need much of a scratch.  Nevertheless, from time to time and on special occasions  we'll still pitch a tent, and cook over a fire or a camp stove.  We've saved all the camping gear and have our own private campsite down by Silver Creek.

I can bake a campfire dutch oven pizza, the best pudgie pie on the planet and have special kind of s'mores recipe in case you're interested. 

Anyway, the ancestral campsite has been cleaned-up.  A rough-cut with the Rhino bush hog...

Followed by a trim with a weed whacker...   

The original picnic table from more than three decades ago has been returned to its proper place.  I even added a Leopold bench for good measure.

We don't have electrical or water hook-ups.  But we have clear dark skies at night, no bothersome  drunken neighbors keeping you up until 2 AM and all the free firewood you need to roast a wienie and keep your tootsies toasty.  We even have a shitter.  You have to bring your own roll; butt the view is spectacular.  Pun intended.

Think of it as the first iteration of glamping.

Raising a toast to fun times out-of-doors and around the campfire.

Getting It Wrong

More than seven years ago I advanced this assertion in a blog post.

Republican control of government has now produced a ten-year outlook likely to push publicly held national debt close to $30 trillion by 2028. Debt as a percentage of the economy would be the highest since 1946 and perhaps the highest ever recorded - depending on how much of the tax bill is extended. 

Holy Smokes!  I was clearly off the mark.  Biggly!

Last time I looked the federal debt is currently north of $36.2 trillion.

Makes you wonder what it will amount to by the time 2028 rolls-around..... 

Friday Music

This famous bluegrass instrumental written by Earl Scruggs in 1949 and was recorded by Scruggs and the Foggy Mountain Boys.  It's known for its fast-paced banjo picking and is widely considered a classic of American roots music.  I posted on this song earlier in February and somehow it popped-up in my YouTube channel feed.  So it's back 

This song helped define the sound of modern bluegrass. Its technical banjo style inspired countless musicians and is often used in banjo competitions and bluegrass jams.

Culturally it was featured prominently in the 1967 film Bonnie and Clyde, which reignited interest in bluegrass music.

Foggy Mountain Breakdown.....

компромат

It is fascinating to me how what goes around comes around.  Again and again.  I first blogged about Russian meddling as long ago as 2017.  And here, and here, and here and finally here.

When I started blogging further about the pro-Putin caucus, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other fringe GOP sympathizers of the Russian dictator it cost me a couple of relationships.  Those posts are all still out there and easy to find using the search tool (upper left corner) or the tags in the left margin.

Maybe there's something to it after-all.  A guy that knows more about it than I do is certainly speaking out....... 

Honestly, I should hope there's nothing to any of this.  But it sure makes you think...

The Cliff Notes for everyone watching these episodes. 

1. Nashego Cheloveka - Our Man In

2. Krot - Mole 

3. Verbovanniy - Recruited 

4. Rezident - Facade of Independence 

5. Nashego - One of Ours 

6. Vliyaniya - Agent of Influence 

7. Polezniy - Useful Idiot

Theater At The DOGE

I asked ChatGPT: 

How much budget savings so far from Musk's Department of Government Efficiency?

As of March 2, 2025, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), let by Elon Musk, reported the cancellation of 128 contracts recently, resulting in approximately $60 million in savings.  Since Its inception, DOGE reports terminating over 3,000 wasteful contracts.

However, analyses by external organizations have raised questions about these reported savings.  An NPR investigation found discrepancies in DOGE's claimed savings, suggesting potential overstatements. 

Additionally, data from DOGE's "Wall of Receipts" indicates that nearly 40% of the cancelled contracts are expected to yield no actual savings. 

In specific instances, DOGE identified inefficiencies in software licensing.  For example, the General Services Administration (GSA) reportedly held 37,000 WinZip licenses for 13,000 employees, leading to a claimed $9.6 million in savings after addressing the surplus.

While DOGE reports significant contract cancellations and some specific savings, external evaluations suggest that the actual budgetary impact may be less substantial than claimed.

Despite these efforts, the reported savings represent a fraction of DOGE's ambitious goal to cut $2 trillion in federal spending by July 4, 2026. 

The notion that Elon Musk and his government efficiency apparatchiks can bring down the debt is a tall order.  To be clear, I take no issue with rooting-out waste fraud and abuse; just give the chainsaw schtick and lame theatrics a rest.  

At this particular moment in time our outstanding debt stands at $36 trillion (give or take).  Closing a handful of government agencies and laying-off government workers makes for great theater but it isn't gonna get the job done.  The savings are much, much too small to achieve the stated goal. Anybody who actually believes nibbling around the edges like this will fix the real problem is engaging in what I call magical wishful thinking.

You see, just like a household budget that has gotten out of control, fixing this problem is going to require hard work and making difficult choices.  

You're probably thinking - Like what?

Like raising taxes, cutting defense spending or reforming Social Security and Medicare.  Or all of the foregoing.  These are unpopular choices for good reason.  Nobody wants to do them.  They're like going to the theater to watch a crappy production.  Nobody wants to do that.  The people demand good theater.  Bread and circuses if you will.  I might be wrong, but I happen to wonder if the current collection of clowns places a higher priority on theater and spectacle than hard work.

So, are we going to continue to be witness to the slow roll reality TV performance or get serious about fixing the real problem for the next couple of generations.

Anyone care to make a friendly wager?

Is There Beer In Heaven?

One of the age-old existential of questions of countless generations of our forebears all the way back to the origins of fermented malt beverages has been:

Is there beer in heaven?

I'm here to offer evidence affirming its existence.  Depending-upon your belief traditions. 

The Vikings held firm to the belief that a goat dispensing endless beer awaited them in heaven.

It's true.  The belief anyway.

According to Norse mythology, the Vikings believed in a celestial goat named Heiðrún, who resided in Valhalla, the grand hall of fallen warriors. Heiðrún fed on the leaves of the sacred tree Læraðr, and from her udders flowed an endless supply of mead (a honey-based alcoholic drink), which sustained the warriors who had died in battle.

So, while it wasn't exactly beer, it was a never-ending supply of mead—pretty close! This endless feast and drink were part of the reward for warriors who fought bravely and earned a place in Valhalla.

The national Museum of Denmark describes current knowledge of Viking's pre-Chrisianity belief system as a patchwork quilt of information.  However, the two most most renowned sources on the old religion are the collection of poems on Norse gods and heroes in the Poetic (or Elder) Edda and the retelling of the Nordic myths in the Prose (or Younger) Edda.  The latter was written by Snorri Sturluson around the year 1220 AD.  Both describe Heiðrún, the goat in heaven.

Of note is the fact that is was Viking influence, during their rule over the Emerald Isle, that Christianity was introduced to the pagan Celts.  Which may explain why many of us refer to Guinness Stout as:  Mothers Milk.  But that is a story for another time.

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*That's what's so cool about the blog.  Come for the occasional politics and opinion; stay for the arcane....