How To Blow-up The Budget

From the WSJ there is this.

According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) U.S. debt will rise to more than 100% of U.S. gross Domestic product (GDP) before the end of this year. 

Debt held by the public will balloon to more than $56 trillion by 2036 as annual deficits continue to mount, according to the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office.  By later this year, the federal debt held by the public is expected to surpass the size of the entire U.S. economy.

The main drivers:  increased spending on entitlement programs as the nation's population ages as well as rising costs related to paying interest on the debt itself.  Republicans have taken issue with the projections, suggesting the CBO's assumptions on economic growth are too low.

Here's a closer look at the numbers, in five easy charts.

The CBO projects that the annual U.S. budget deficit will top $3 trillion by fiscal year 2036. The deficit was briefly that high when the federal government spent heavily during the Covid-19 pandemic. 

By fiscal year 2036, the deficit will hit 6.7% of GDP, up from 5.8% in 2025.

Social Security and Medicare costs will drive mandatory spending to 15% of GDP by fiscal year 2036. Mounting debt will increase spending on net interest to nearly 5% of GDP.

CBO projects a $23 trillion deficit from 2026 to 2035, up around $1.4 trillion from its last projection. Tariff revenue will only partly offset effects of the GOP’s ‘one big, beautiful’ tax law.*

Debt held by the public will surpass 100% of GDP this year and is projected to exceed 120% by fiscal year 2036.

 *Projected revenues generated by import taxes are uncertain as a consequence of the recent SCOTUS decision.

  

The Joy of Giving

Over the recent holidays we were the recipient of any number of stocking-stuffer gifts; many of them edible. Cookies, brownies, candies, popcorn, a selection of fine English teas and much more.  Most interesting was a one-pound bag of dried, pitted plums.  Evidence of it being more blessed to give than receive?    

An interesting gift for sure and knowing I would need some time to figure-out how to incorporate them into our diet I placed them on a shelf in the pantry aside the nuts and other baking ingredients.  However, there was something about them that was different.  Sort of off.  I couldn't put my finger on it.  Time passed.

Then, while watching a movie comedy on a recent evening I had a Eureka Moment.  Fetching the bag I produced it for the Missus and asked if she noticed anything unusual?  Nope.  Anything odd?  Nope.  Anything missing?  Such as branding, like Del Monte, Sunkist, etcetera?

Yup.  That bag was devoid of any evidence of who produced and packaged it.  Prominent in the generic packaging was a missive extolling the nutritional virtues of dried, pitted plums, a government website and a big, honking, USDA Logo.  I'm no fool, I'm a tree farmer.  And just like any other farmer or rancher I know the USDA all day long.  

From all outward appearances we had come into possession of a one pound bag of genuine USDA surplus commodity dried pitted plums the likes of which find their way to school lunch kitchens, supplemental meal programs for seniors, children, qualifying families and food pantries.  

This was nowhere near as exotic as being on the receiving end of a twenty pound block of surplus commodity pasteurized process American cheese food product but since we don't share surplus food commodities with poor nations any longer my dried, pitted, plums were clearly unworthy of needlessly languishing in my pantry; or worse yet - a landfill.  

Ecstatic with solving the origin mystery of our bag of deep purple wrinkled fruits I was motivated to put them to good use.  So I asked ChatGPT what to make with precisely one pound of dried, pitted, plums.  Suggestions included all manner of cakes, tortes, braised meat dishes and more.  Looking for easy I replied in clarification with one word:  Jam.

I was going make some jam.  Fortunately, I had everything necessary in the pantry so I put my prunes (that is what they are after-all) to soak overnight and ran a full dishwasher at bedtime to wash and sanitize a half-dozen half-pint jars in preparation for an easy-peasy recipe for prune jam the following morning.

Here it is...

Prune Jam — Water-Bath Canning Instructions

Why this is safe

• Prunes are naturally acidic
• Added lemon juice ensures pH stays safely below 4.6
• Water-bath canning is appropriate (no pressure canner needed)

Ingredients

• 1 lb dried pitted plums (prunes)
• 2½–3 cups water
• 1½–2 cups sugar (do not reduce below 1½ for shelf stability)
• 2 Tbsp bottled lemon juice (important for acidity)
• Optional:
  
• 1 tsp vanilla or
• ½ tsp cinnamon or
• Orange zest

Equipment

• Water-bath canner or large deep pot with rack
• 4–5 half-pint jars (or 2–3 pint jars)
• New lids, bands
• Jar lifter, funnel, bubble remover

Step 1: Prepare Jars

1. Wash jars, lids, and bands.
2. Keep jars hot (simmering water or dishwasher).
3. Heat lids in warm (not boiling) water.

Step 2: Make the Jam

1. Soak prunes in water 8 hours or overnight (or simmer 20 minutes if short on time).
2. Transfer prunes and soaking liquid to a pot.
3. Simmer 20–30 minutes until very soft.
4. Blend smooth or chunky. (I used a stick blender for slightly chunky)
5. Add sugar and lemon juice.
6. Simmer 10–20 minutes, stirring often, until thick and glossy.
7. Optional spices go in during the last 5 minutes. (I chose vanilla)

Jam should mound on a spoon and wrinkle on a cold plate.

Step 3: Fill Jars

1. Ladle hot jam into hot jars.
2. Leave ¼ inch headspace.
3. Remove air bubbles.
4. Wipe rims clean.
5. Apply lids and bands finger-tight. 

Step 4: Water-Bath Process

1. Place jars on rack in canner.
2. Cover with 1–2 inches of boiling water.
3. Once water returns to a full boil, start timing:

 Processing Time

• Half-pints or pints:
  10 minutes (0–1,000 ft elevation)

Adjust for altitude:

• 1,001–3,000 ft → 15 minutes
• 3,001–6,000 ft → 20 minutes
• Above 6,000 ft → 25 minutes

(I processed five half-pint jars for 30 minutes)  

Step 5: Cool & Check Seals

1. Turn off heat, rest jars in water 5 minutes.
2. Remove jars; cool 12–24 hours undisturbed.
3. Check seals (lid should not flex).
4. Remove bands, wipe jars.

Storage

• Shelf-stable: 12–18 months
• Store cool, dark, dry
• Refrigerate after opening                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
  
                                                                                                                                          The yield was five half-pint jars and a sixth scant half pint that went into the fridge for immediate use.  My jam was definitely very prune-like with a satisfying sweet and tart finish.  The vanilla I added was a keeper.  Aside from putting this on a toasted English muffin this jam could also be used like a chutney with pork or poultry.  It would make a fine glaze on braised pork, duck, chicken or a baked ham.  A tablespoonful in a fruit smoothie would add sweetness and beneficial fiber; same for plain Greek yogurt.  If you're making your own BBQ sauce from scratch or simply want to amp-up a bottle of store-bought this is just the ticket to add some depth.                                                              
   
   
  The USDA leaves much to be criticized; nevertheless, the agency's food and nutritional programs serve to feed needful citizens and make use of the bounty of surplus food generated by America's efficiently-productive farm sector.  Someone got those prunes from a channel completely out of my league.  And they were thoughtful enough to gift those prunes. Perhaps prunes are evidence of largess and therefore a prized gift.  Perhaps they don't care for dried fruit or were stumped over how to utilize them.  I'll never know the answer to these questions.  Thankfully, they weren't pitched into the kitchen garbage. The virtue of frugality is not lost on me.  Just goes to show - never question the value of a gift.  Be grateful and put it to good use - Acts 20:35. 

Asleep At The Switch

May you live in interesting times - frequently referred-to as an ancient Chinese curse is likely of 19th-century British origin; possibly from speeches by Joseph Chamberlain.  Nevertheless, we're living in the midst of an interesting period of time.

The results of last Tuesday's elections were interesting.  The extent to which president Trump's on-again, off-again messages and policies played a role is open to speculation.  For the left there is presently an air of glee.  For MAGA world the president is blameless.  For independents (including myself) arguing that prices are coming down while prices are obviously rising rings hollow.  Trust me; I do the grocery shopping in our household and everything from coffee, to orange juice, to beef is soaring as a consequence of import duties.  For my household this extra tax burden is an expensive annoyance.  For working families not so much.

It is easy to say you are concerned about economic worries in the homeland.  Juxtaposed with foreign travel, lavish Mar-A-Lago parties, jetting-off on Air Force One for a round of golf, gilded White House renovations book-ended by demolition of the east wing contradicts the feigned concern.  It's bullshit.     

It is hard to argue you care about the working poor and elderly while simultaneously arguing to defund SNAP benefits. 

The bottom line is blaming Dems for the government shutdown while you have absolute and complete control of the White House, both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court is nonsensical.  See paragraph three, above.

Don't take my word for it; Donald Trump's approval rating is beginning to slip even among his own supporters.

Some days I wonder if maybe the lunatics have taken over the asylum; then I am reminded that we've been to this rodeo before.   In case you haven't noticed; I'm still waiting for the administration to improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  Along with making the world a safer place.  You snooze you lose....

Getty Image 

Halloween

Anyone know if and when the Ghost Ship will make her appearance?

Hard to know with the shut down and all…

Big Gubmint

Scuttlebutt around here is that the president has manifested some sort of excess meddling in business, markets and government.  I'm not suggesting what we've grown accustomed to witnessing in other more authoritarian regimes such as Russia and Communist Red China; but more meddlesome than what some may consider a classic laissez-faire, free market perspective. 

Consider that the president fired Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, earlier this month after big downward revisions to jobs data.  Similarly, he ordered Goldman Sachs to fire an economist, Intel to fire its CEO, demanded a government ownership interest in Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel, demanded a 15% cut of AI chip sales to China.  Invested a total of $11.1 billion in chip manufacturer Intel for a 9.9% stake.  And shook down most of our trade partners to pledge billions of dollars of investment in negotiating export taxes.  

Compounding this our tariff policy has become a tool wielded at the sole discretion of the executive branch and varies haphazardly by country, product and fit of pique.  It's manic.

By all outward appearances you'd think that we've become a hybrid of Soviet-style centralized state-run economics. 

I would argue no; not yet anyway.

Government has a long and storied history of embedding itself in business and all things economic; even in a capitalist economy such as ours.  Until Obama rolled-around we legislated restrictions on crude oil exports.  We've instituted wage and price controls and interfered with the regulation of banks and savings and loans at our own peril.  

Farm policy pays farmers to grow and not to grow.  We've subsidized ethanol production and green energy technologies. Congress legislated how many gallons per flush and never consulted a plumber.  They also instituted TARP to bail out banks, automakers and organized labor. 

Furthermore, agencies like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae artificially impact mortgage rates distorting the housing market.  Similarly, Biden pushed to forgive student loans.  Once upon a time we took an ownership interest in a civilian passenger liner.

I could go on, but I think you get my drift.

On the happen chance you believe I support this; I do not.  I'm disinclined to political busybodies interfering in free markets.  Nevertheless, I expect the president is going to continue to pick winners and losers.  Every day is an opportunity to discover he got up on the wrong side of the bed and you, your business or country may join the ranks of losers.  

All of my previously self-identified libertarian acquaintances have suddenly gone deaf and dumb.  And I continue to have a tough time figuring-out how any of this advances your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  And is the world a safer place? Yet?

You Say Potato, I Say Potatoh

L to R: Yukon Gold, Superior and German Butterball

I've grown a lot of  potatoes in my life, but not likely as many species that you will find at the Midwest Area Vegetable Crops Research Unit where you will find the Potato Germplasm Station; AKA the United States Potato Genebank (USPG).  Yup, the Fort Knox of potatoes is found right here on the peninsula  just north of Sturgeon Bay.  

Before 1950 and the US national plant germplasm system was started, potato breeding was basically  ad hoc by various scientists and breeders.  Consequently they were not available to the whole grower community, and got infected with viruses or otherwise lost. Potato scientists (yes, there is such a thing) organized to lobby for a centralized program to import, classify, preserve, evaluate, and distribute potato germplasm. 

Because we grow a lot of potatoes in our fine state Wisconsin lobbied extensively for a genebank, and we got what we asked-for.  It seemed a good idea to have all of this genetic treasure situated a bit removed from the production area of the state, and the because the UW research farm - Peninsular Agricultural Research Station (PARS) has been located on the peninsula since 1922  Sturgeon Bay was chosen as the USPG home in 1948. 

Unbeknownst to just about everyone it is here that research is performed to facilitate improvements in the potato of the future by promoting the use of valuable exotic genes found in wild potato species.  Wild potato species contain a veritable treasure chest of genetic diversity for potentially useful traits that may be bred into new varieties. These new varieties must be able to overcome the challenges of pests and stresses with less dependence on chemical fertilizers, insecticides and fungicides. The USPG is doing this through a 5-fold approach: acquisition, classification, preservation, evaluation and distribution of potato genetics.  This collection is part of the U.S. National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS) - all 5927 potato specimens in the collection!

Check-out the Champion Spud to the left.

 

Potato scientists have a complete tissue culture lab and growth chamber facility to support a clonal collection of about 1000 tubers. In addition, there are 10 greenhouse compartments in which plants are grown to generate seeds and tubers for distribution to customers, as well as for cooperative and in-house research. Most of this work is performed in the winter.  Additionally, there are four large screenhouses for similar work in the summer. A seed lab is used to extract, dry and package the seeds. Freezers hold the seed collection, and a walk-in refrigerated storage holds research tubers.  

The purpose of USPG, like any genebank is to acquire, classify, preserve, evaluate and distribute germplasm, information and technology pursuant to improving the crop. Right under your nose this is the  only facility in the US with that mission specifically for the potato.  Researchers here also support potato improvement around the world. 

The potato has about 100 species and more wild relatives which are accessible to breeding than
any other crop. At least 70% of new cultivar releases have exotic germplasm from USPG in their family tree.  Indeed, it is here that you will find the grandparent of  the Yukon Gold. 

It all begins here so researchers think about consumers a lot, since potato needs to expand demand to stay profitable.  Here you will find researchers working on evaluating and developing unusual forms like the Colombian orange-fleshed egg-yolk specialty type.  Scientists keep abreast of nutritional news and trends, since any kind of nutritional improvement in potato could make it a more attractive choice to consumers. Since there is no expectation that people will eat more, attention is paid to how the potato could compete better with grains.  And they're on the lookout for totally new outlets for potato.

Finally, substantial attention is given to how Wisconsin germplasm can address the needs of growers in Latin America, since this is a way to say “thank you” to the people who originally donated it to the world.

Fast Fact:  The Honeycrisp Apple (Malus pumila) was developed by the University of Minnesota at their Horticultural Research Center.  Designated as MN1711 in 1974, patented in 1988, and released in 1991, the Honeycrisp, once slated to be discarded, has rapidly become a prized commercial apple.  So, when someone wants to defund government-paid research at major universities it might just have consequences.

The King's Speech

On Tuesday, March 4th President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress.  I do not begrudge our President the opportunity to take a victory lap; particularly on the heels of six busy weeks of cabinet hearings, executive orders, reductions in force, court hearings, spending freezes, tariffs followed by pauses, starts and follow-up pauses of the the latter.

The speech was exceedingly long however; meaning the volume of dubious claims or lies was target-rich.  Nothing new under the sun; nevertheless, worthy of truthful daylight.  Consequently, from time to time one of more of the King's gems will be featured here.

Enjoy. 

“We’re also identifying shocking levels of incompetence and probable fraud in the Social Security program for our seniors, and that our seniors and people that we love rely on. Believe it or not, government databases list 4.7 million Social Security members from people aged 100 to 109 years old. It lists 3.6 million people from ages 110 to 119. I don’t know any of them. I know some people that are rather elderly, but not quite. 3.47 million people from ages 120 to 129, 3.9 million people from ages 130 to 139, 3.5 million people from ages 140 to 149. …”

This is false.  From all outward appearances the President was repeating fabrications posted on social media by Elon Musk.  As has been covered in the media this is a consequence of the Social Security Administration's (SSA) maintenance of their data bases using COBOL - a computer code invented when I was a toddler.  

A report issued by the inspector general for SSA as recently as 2023 documented that virtually every beneficiary who lacked a date of birth was deceased.  Coincidentally, neither the DOGE, White House, member of Congress or the media has been able to positively identify a an individual that falls into any category of the President's fabrications.

Where Does the Money Go?

Frequently the discussion around how the government spends our money gets bogged-down in the jargon of budget nerds with terminology like discretionary and mandatory spending.

Thee good people over at Axios along with the help of centrist think tank Third Way distilled thousands of lines of federal spending and broke it down into a chart using plain language. 

In the Third Way analysis 31 cents of each dollar the government spends consists of checks to Americans - primarily Social Security.  15 cents went to help people purchase health insurance, 12 cents to medical expenses, another 13 cents went to cover interest on the national debt,  3 cents goes to wages for military and federal law enforcement while everything else the federal government does cost 26 cents. 

Once you wrap your mind around the fact that 60 cents of every dollar is spent on health care or direct payments it makes the spending picture clearer.

FOIA

The DOGE has penetrated the IRS, Social Security and Medicare.

 

The DOGE now has access to all of my financial info and personal identifiers. I did not consent-to nor authorize Elon Musk’s access to this privileged and confidential information.

 

The DOGE has not disclosed what they are going to do with this information; or how they will protect me from identity theft or fraud.

 

Nobody has been able to explain how Elon Musk’s possession of this information makes me safer, more prosperous, improves my lot in life or makes my government more efficient. To what purpose is it they have my bank account and routing numbers, brokerage accounts, charities, medical records and more?

 

Come to think of it, if my former employer allowed a data breach on this order of magnitude they would be out of business.

 

 

So, last Friday I figured what the heck; I'll make an inquiry under the Freedom Of Information Act.  Maybe I can ascertain what DOGE has on me.  I figure there are three possible responses:

 

1. We have nothing.

2. We have something and here it is

3. Get lost.

 

An attorney pal tells me that all of the FOIA officers at federal agencies have been terminated; but to let him know if I get a response that is other than claimed exemption from disclosure.  A retired acquaintance informs me that FOIAs are the language of government procurement; that they have been for many many years.  Furthermore, they often go unanswered.  And a non-reply is standard and customary.

  

Stay-tuned.

 

And if anybody can answer paragraph four I'm all ears.  Even the most brilliant of my MAGA friends cannot.

Impoundment

Our Founding Fathers crafted our government to be small.  Not so small and ineffectual as the one under the Articles of Confederation (which the Constitution replaced) even so, limited.  In the century and a half leading up to just before the Great Depression, federal spending consistently hovered-around 3% of GDP; evidence of a constrained government.  With the passage of time things changed.

In an effort to limit patronage and corruption the civil service system was created in 1883.  With the exception of a wartime economy government continued to remain limited in both size and power.  Nevertheless, with the best of intentions, a small bureaucracy was born.

The arrival of Roosevelt's New Deal in 1933 gave rise to a vast collection of regulatory agencies, government-supported recovery programs and creation of various federal safety nets.  Considering the magnitude of a decade-long depression most of this was welcomed by a beleaguered citizenry. And the administrative state grew.

Fast forward to nowadays.  Several generations had come and gone since WWII and all the while government had grown larger.  Allow me to introduce you to the power of impoundment. 

In the simplest of terms an impoundment is any action – or inaction – by an officer or employee of the federal government that precludes federal funds from being obligated or spent, either temporarily or permanently.  Presidents dating back to Jefferson had periodically wielded the impoundment power.  

Naturally, Congress holds the legislative power of the purse.  It is the prerogative of Congress to hand the president a purse full of money; but not the capacity to compel the president to spend the entirety of the contents of the purse.  Presidents retained executive discretion in that regard. 
In 1974, Congress passed a law with the intent to limit the president's power of impoundment. 

The Impoundment Control Act of 1974 created procedural mechanisms by which the Congress considers and reviews executive branch withholdings of budget authority.  It requires the President to report promptly to the Congress all withholdings of appropriations and to abide by the outcome of the congressional impoundment review process. 

Although the basic framework of the act is sound, it set the table for a clash between the three branches of government - Executive, Legislative and Judicial. The Founding Fathers May have been prescient.

Enter the Unitary Executive Theory; a Constitutional law theory according to which the President of the United States has sole authority over the executive branch. It is an expansive interpretation of presidential power that aims to centralize greater control over the government in the White House.

The Executive Branch of the government exists because of Article II of the Constitution, which vests executive authority with the president.  Yeah, in a very short period of less than a month our new president has cut spending authorized by Congress.  Some are sore about this sudden turnabout.  Consider this; if a president is to have reign over the executive branch, has he the authority to eliminate the positions needed to spend that money?  Or can Congress or unelected judges force him to spend it by essentially commandeering executive power?

Therein lies the rub.

This is not rocket science.  If Congress passed a law last year saying money should be spent this year, then it might come as a surprise that a new president can just cancel that spending.  It is already impacting local government where I live.  The seeming abruptness of this is we haven’t had a president in fifty-plus years willing to fully test the limits of their constitutional authority, including impoundment. 

It's still very early in the game and the president has flooded the zone with enough sound and fury as to make one's head spin.

We'll have to wait a bit to see how this plays-out.  Only time will tell.

You're welcome......

Begging The Obvious

How Many Federal Worker Resignations Would Be a Lot?

Seventy-five thousand have submitted resignations as part of Elon Musk’s “fork in the road” offer. 

But 150,000 voluntarily leave every year anyway.

Feel free to parse the data here. 

EDIT To Add:

A federal judge in Massachusetts allowed the Trump administration's bid to offer "deferred resignations" to federal workers who voluntarily leave government service to continue and lifted a previous court order pausing the program's deadline.

Shortly after the ruling, Office of Personnel Management spokesperson McLaurine Pinover said in a statement that the office was "pleased" with the court's decision and that the deferred resignation program was closed as of 7 p.m. Wednesday. Roughly 75,000 federal workers have accepted the offer to leave their government positions, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. The White House had expected as many as 200,000 workers to accept the offer.

 

Doge - American Style

Doge - Venetian Italian for Duke - the highest official of the Republic of Venice.  Spanning the 8th to 18th centuries, more than a thousand years, the Doge was the sovereign ruler of the Venetian State.  

The palace of the Doge is famous for its flamboyant gothic architecture and its Great Council Chamber which houses possibly the largest oil on canvas painting in the world:  The Glory of Paradise by Jacopo Tintoretto.  As the primary residence of the Doge of Venice the palace was the physical manifestation of this supreme sovereign authority.

It is fitting that billionaire oligarchs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed sovereigns of the incoming Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE.  Of course, lacking the authority of a real government department there is no supreme authority.  

Sigh. 

Trump's transition team tells us that Musk and Ramaswamy are going to solve our country's debt problem. The DOGE is going to reduce the government's power, slash its workforce and crack-down on waste, fraud and abuse.  The sovereign oligarca announced they intend to reduce the federal budget by nearly thirty percent ($2 trillion).  So far, the chatter has been largely about cuts without much bandwidth devoted to a single ducat of additional revenue or investment in efficiency.  

Sure, I know it's early in the game and the president elect has yet to be sworn into office.  As a consequence I am resigned to the notion that for the present I will be subject to random dictum from Ramaswamy and Musk highlighting: The Usual Bill Of Fare.  Pledging to battle waste, fraud and abuse in Washington is as old as the hills.  Having been trotted-out with incessant frequency as a campaign promise by both sides it has become tread worn.  This spent refrain has become wearily uninspired.  It is tiresome.

Where to begin?  Try to stay with me as we take a deeper dive in the numbers. 

I've taken a run at this stuff before and it all comes down to money coming in (revenue) and money going out (expenses).  Nuanced by what is non-discretionary versus discretionary.  With a dose of old-fashioned politics thrown-in for good measure. 

The revenue side of the ledger includes a couple of large contributions; namely individual income taxes (about $2.2 trillion) and payroll taxes (about $1.6 trillion).  Smaller are corporate income taxes (about $420 billion) and various duties and tariffs, sales, estate and excise taxes (roughly $228 billion).  For the 2023 fiscal year money-in totaled $4.4 trillion+.

The president-elect has promised to reduce individual and corporate income taxes by at least $5 trillion over 10 years; reducing the money coming-in.  He has also promised substantial new tariffs on imports; although no estimates have been revealed for these tax increases.

Social Security and Medicare would be difficult to cut as Trump has promised he would not.  Nevertheless, both programs are living on borrowed time.  Without additional revenues and changes to the retirement formula, the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are already under stress from an aging population.  They will run out of money in 2033 and 2036 respectively.  This means that current retirees will experience a significant cut to their benefits anyway.  Trump's promise to end taxes on Social Security would accelerate the arrival of these cuts.

On the expense side of the ledger the three largest non-discretionary expenditures include the fore-mentioned Social Security and Medicare, federal civilian and military retirement and veteran benefits.  Total non-discretionary spending for 2023 was $3.8 trillion. 

There is an additional $659 billion of net interest (give or take) on the outstanding national debt.  It stands alone; but added to the non-discretionary component of the federal budget gets us to a grand total of $4.5 trillion.

What's left?  Discretionary spending of $1.7 trillion.  Included in this category is defense and roughly $9 trillion in non-defense spending.

Non-discretionary and discretionary explained

Non-discretionary programs are deemed mandatory spending which means funding doesn't require passage of an annual appropriation by Congress.  By example: if the DOGE Bros want to reduce Social Security, Medicare, federal retirement benefits (military and civilian) Congress would have to pass legislation reducing or defunding these benefits.  

There is net interest on the national debt -  almost $700 billion.  The credit-worthiness of our nation hinges on our promise to pay our debts.  I don't believe the DOGE Bros would recommend defaulting on the debt or devaluing our currency putting their own wealth at great peril.

On the discretionary side of the spending ledger the DOGE Illuminati have tweeted about unsupported billions upon billions of defense payments that cannot be tracked or audited. I'll not argue there isn't waste, fraud and abuse or other similar leakage in the defense budget; but not enough to reduce the federal budget by 30 percent.  I suppose Musk and Ramaswamy might recommend that Congress kill the F-35 program.  Alas, there is that nagging matter of Congress, national security and jobs. 

What's left? 

That leaves a grab-bag of leftovers the DOGE can submit to Congress and the President for elimination and defunding.  In the grab-bag is found Assistance to Individuals (namely nutritional and healthcare programs), transfers to states (Medicaid coverage for poor people, education, roads, bridges, highways, ports, airports and other infrastructure), National Parks, the National Weather Service, arts funding (public broadcasting); you get the drift.  

Of course, in the grand scheme of things, this grab-bag of leftovers doesn't even come close to scratching the surface of reducing the federal budget by thirty percent.  And here's the catch; a considerable portion of the grab-bag is decidedly popular with much of the public.  Defunding it would result in a cascade of serious budget shortfalls for the states leaving all the governors and the people very grumpy.  

The challenge for Trump and the DOGE is that a 10,000 foot view of the discretionary side of the federal budget reveals that it is just two things - military and defense; including a vast health and social insurance program that comes with it; and everything else.  Compared to defense, the rest of the discretionary budget is much more transparent because average Americans are witness almost on a daily basis to weather forecasting, highways, air traffic control, public broadcasting, national parks and monuments.  They cost relatively little money in a ginormous federal budget and are generally liked.

I readily admit I struggle with coming-across as slightly snarky about quirky oligarchs like Musk and Ramaswamy; they're billionaires after-all.  Who among us actually believe they are sincerely empathetic to the needs and wants of ordinary Americans?  How many of you think they relish the attention of the Trump reality show?   These juxtapositions mean they have to work harder at candor and authenticity if they want to be taken seriously and actually add value to the incoming administration.

If the DOGE only looks at cutting the budget their task may become virtually impossible as it would result in a significant disruption of services average Americans have come to expect from government.  The DOGE must explore creative initiatives that require investment in efficiencies and alternative sources of revenue and think big.  They need to go after the big money to make a historic splash. 

I'll let you in on a secret:  They need to shift that thing we refer to as an 800 pound gorilla.  They need to look to Social Security and Medicare - the root cause of our budget woes.  The subject politicians are so loathe to speak-of that they tip toe and shrink from it like timid sissies.   

I am not being snarky - if Elon and Vivek put their thinking caps on and put their minds to meaningful reform of both of these programs with a view to securing their future for the next couple of generations it would be earthshaking and enshrine their boss in history.  Who knows, I might even become a believer.

To be clear this would be a heavy lift.  Politically-fraught too.  The last president to pull it off was Ronald Reagan.

I wish them well as President-elect Trump will be a lame duck president; with effectively only a couple of years to implement meaningful change.   Which may partially explain why only a few days ago the richest man in the world is now walking-back his boast of $2 trillion budget cuts.    

There is enough meat on this bone there is a high probability of another couple-three blog posts to do it justice.  And since it is very early in the game there is ample time for bonafide policy to evolve and unfold.  Detailed policy which will improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  And perhaps make the world a safer place.

Of course, There is time for additional hedging and moving of goal posts; so stay tuned.

Cheers!