Drama At The Oval

Last Friday's Oval Office meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky was ostensibly intended to discuss peace negotiations concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to finalize a natural resources agreement.  However the meeting devolved into a heated exchange with Trump accusing Zelensky of being ungrateful and risking global conflict by not pursuing peace with Russia.  Vice President JD Vance criticized Zelensky for discussing policy matter publicly, leading to an abrupt end to the meeting without a signed agreement.  

Naturally, the incident drew significant attention both here and abroad with numerous world leaders expressing support for Zelensky and criticizing President Trump's approach.  Leaders from countries such as Canada, Norway, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and Moldova condemned Trump's remarks and reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia's invasion.  

Given the contentious nature of the meeting, the choreographed timing of Vance's entry into the fray gives the appearance of not merely a theatrical performance, but a planned public setup.  The first thing that came to mind was the boardroom scene of the Final Episode following another lame season of The Apprentice.  I digress.

The lack of any substantive outcomes and subsequent international reaction seems to imply that the meeting had significant implications beyond just the political theater.  Precisely what they are remains to be revealed.  Is Trump ten moves ahead in a three dimensional chess match; or is he simply chaotic?  You pick.

Nonetheless, I sort of saw it coming; like a slow moving train wreck.  There were earlier signals from Secretary Hegseth,  the US joining both North Korea and Russia in the vote at the United Nations (China abstained), along with Trump's parroting of Kremlin talking points.  I shared with a couple of pals that I figured Trump was going to orchestrate things in a way that Putin would get the whole shebang in the end.  Time will tell.

Does this suggest we've signaled to the world that we're done with 70+ years of transatlantic alliances; trading all of it for an alliance with a ruthless blood-soaked gangster like Vladimir Putin and his rapidly failing Russian state?

Or was this a garden-variety Mafiosi protection racket?  Listen-up youse.  Give us your raw earth minerals, or your dry-cleaning shop, izza gonna burn down, see.

Why does Trump have a hard-on for Putin? 

Why isn't Putin being held to account?

Does Zelensky understand a bad deal is better than a good war?

Judging from the reaction in the cesspool called Face Book, the base is loving the red meat.  Of course the base has also turned a blind eye, or loves, (you pick) the forcible abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.  Similarly, supporters of Ukraine were quick to post their own collection of cut and paste unoriginal memes.  Although I didn't note anyone volunteering to send their children or grandchildren over there to join the fight.

It's too soon and uncertain to know where this takes us.  Although for the first time this year I watched all the Sunday morning talking heads on both sides as White House spokespeople twisted them selves in convoluted knots in an attempt to explain this is ten moves ahead three dimensional chess and not simply chaos.

What I've learned over the years is that Trump means what he says and he closed the Friday drama with this:

This is going to be great television.  I will say that.

 

Thanks for reading and stay-tuned. Hardly a dull moment nowadays. 

Noteable Quoteable

You should have never started it.

- President Donald Trump

Fact Checking

The European nations together have spent $100 billion, or maybe more than that, less than us.

- Donald Trump 

This is on the subject of Ukraine.  Donald Trump is either lying or confused (you pick) because he's got this turned-around.

The United States and Europeans spent roughly the the same amounts in the year immediately following Russia's unprovoked invasion and assault on their neighbor. 

European aid continued to grow in 2023 while aid from the US flatlined without GOP support. 

President Biden eventually secured a bipartisan aid package in April.

More Russian Intrigue

My first thought was a false flag operation with Putin's fingerprints on it to pin the blame on Ukraine.  That may still be the case.

Or not.

Stay-tuned for developments.....

Where Does The Money Go?

There has been a considerable amount of talk of late about military aid to Israel and Ukraine.   To suggest it must be either one or the other is a false dilemma fallacy.  For reasons that I will get to in the conclusion of this post I believe it can and should be both.  If you want to condition it on a more muscular approach to securing our southern border I'm OK with that too.  Horsetrading is how you govern.  As you read this you will get the impression I'm comfortable with security; both here and abroad.

Today I want to dispel some of the misinformation I catch from media soundbites and from the general cesspool of deceptions planted on social media by Russian and Communist Red Chinese trolls specifically as it relates to aid to Ukraine.

Congress has appropriated $113.3 billion since February of 2022 to assist Ukraine in its fight against Russia's unprovoked invasion.  This money has been provided in four tranches known as supplementals.  

To better understand  the purpose of the support these funds are divided among nine buckets including:  Economic support, weapons back-fill, Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, Defense Department accounts, humanitarian and civil society assistance, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), other non-defense efforts, oversight and other defense efforts.

From a defense perspective, the supplemental appropriations allow for the rapid transfer of equipment and supplies from Department Of Defense (DOD) stockpiles to Ukrainian forces under something called the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA).  This is an executive power granted by congress in 1961 to the commander in chief.

Some have mischaracterized US support to Ukraine as a blank check.  The political spin is to leave an undiscerning individual with the impression we are shipping pallets of cash currency to a country at war.  The truth is that the vast majority of the money is actually spent here at home for production contracts with US companies manufacturing ammunition, weapons and equipment to back-fill our own stocks.

Almost all of the military aid sent to Ukraine is older cold war weapons systems and materiel.  This stuff represents a sunk cost budgeted under prior defense authorizations dating back as far as the 1970s.  There is no small amount irony in the knowledge that stuff our military purchased for an expected European land war with the Soviets is being given to Ukrainians to defend against Russians.  It also happens to save the US taxpayer the cost and trouble of eventual disposal.

Naturally, older inventory sent to Ukraine has to be replaced.  It is important to note that the replacement of US weapons stocks will include the latest version of war fighting technology and will stimulate the development of newer, necessary technologies.  Why is this important?  The nature of warfare has changed and if expensive systems such as HIMARS can be electronically jammed, then we'd be well-served to know that now and build replacements that cannot be compromised. 

Before Ukraine who knew we had the capability to shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles with the Patriot system?  Or how to deal with the broad deployment of drones on the battlefield - something US forces have not had to face.  This is real-time testing of American military equipment against the best Russia has to offer. This affords us an opportunity to build better systems to defend against a sophisticated adversary.  Peace through strength.

And yes, helping Ukraine defend itself against an unprovoked Russian invasion is money well-spent because Russia will not stop at Ukraine.  Putin has stated that his next objective after Ukraine will be Poland and the Baltic states.  Sweden and Finland have joined NATO as they know they are targets of Russian expansionism.  And China would see our non-support of Ukraine as an open invitation to invade Taiwan.  But I digress.

Getting back to where the money is going, about $69 billion of the $113 billion (60 percent) will be spent in the United states, benefiting our armed forces and US industry. 

In conclusion, I do not support Ukraine because it is better for our military preparedness, the economy or as a shareholder.  To be absolutely clear, we should never forget the human cost of war.  And this disastrous conflict wasn't started by the west or Ukraine.  Russia picked this fight and if Russia is allowed to succeed the US may pay for it many times over, in treasure and in lives.  

I believe it is proper to be thoughtful and judicious about military and humanitarian aid to others.  This is not warmongering jingoism.  Consider this:  Russia and Hamas are the nexus of aggression and disinformation along with their Iranian patrons.  You can bet that China and North Korea are paying close attention.  Countries such as Ukraine and Israel are worthy of our material support to defend themselves from aggressors bent-upon their annihilation.

The moral depravity of the pro-Hamas left and the pro-Putin right have made our world an exceedingly dangerous place.  Helping Israel and Ukraine stand up to the bad guys is doing the right thing.  

Charts: American Enterprise Institute

Evil Personified

Russia’s bloody and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has strategically made use of rape, abductions, torture and the targeting of civilians.  These are war crimes and evil personified.

Hamas’ bloody and unprovoked attack on Israel has been rife with rape, abductions and the slaying of civilians; including children.  All war crimes and stunningly evil.

 

Iran is a twisted degenerate theocracy; a barbaric defilement of one of the religions of Abraham.

 

Russia, Iran and Hamas are complicit. 

 

The war in Ukraine has seen Russia become reliant on Israel’s most serious rival in the Middle East. Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles have become vital to Moscow’s war efforts due to their effectiveness and affordability. Additionally, Tehran is seeking billions of dollars of Russian military goods in exchange for its support, which includes allowing Moscow to create its own versions of Iranian attack UAVs.

 

There are Russian remarks directed at Zelensky, who is Jewish. Last month, Putin himself said Western Masters put a person at the head of modern Ukraine an ethnic Jew, with Jewish roots, with Jewish origins to help glorify Nazism.  This has been a tiring and oft-repeated trope.

All the while the war in Ukraine has drawn Russia closer to Iran, Israel’s most powerful regional rival and a key backer of Hamas.  It is the attacks by Russia and Hamas that are harrowing echoes of Nazi massacres. 

 

Meanwhile, China is watching and waiting to see how things play out for those who ‘went first’. And BTW - North Korea’s role in this makes the circle complete. 

 

Yup, Russia, Iran, China, North Korea.

 

I know evil and I know bad guys and their apologists when I see them.   Including the moral depravity of the pro Hamas left and the pro Putin cheerleaders of the right. They disgust me. Their machinations have caused the world to become a more dangerous place.

 

How hard is it to condemn and stand-up to the murder of civilian noncombatants?

Who Started This Anyway?

Among other expert podcasts I digest among my favorites includes Peter Zeihan.  Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst.  He  studies how place impacts financial, economic, cultural, political and military developments; and makes them understandable to a layperson. 

This is the fifth question of his Q&A series:  Who is the ultimate provocateur in the Ukraine War?  He doesn't think his answer will surprise anyone.

If Russian propaganda has led you to believe that nazi-jewish-gay-demons run Ukraine maybe this isn't the video for you.  Equally as absurd is the idea that NATO and the US are responsible for Ukraine being in this situation.

The US has seen NATO growth since the Cold War's end; roughly 20 countries have joined, and many of them are former Soviet territories.  But joining NATO is no cakewalk.  It's a grueling process and must be unanimously agreed-upon by all members.

So the idea that NATO started this war and has been plotting to eliminate Russia is a stretch.  

Besides, when you actively send tens of thousands of troops into another country, it's pretty hard to get the red off your hands.

Take time to watch.  Five minutes well-spent.....

Prescient

This is a country convinced it is in it's last generation 

Yikes! 

My pal, Braumeister, recommended that I check-out material that Peter Zeihan has published.

This presentation from 2017 nailed-it, spot-on.

I had always understood the basic crumbling demographics in Russia and how this was contributing to it's growing status as a failed state.  Nevertheless, watching this in 2022 is pretty incredible - the main points he made in 2017 (falling population, degrading demography) are contributing circumstances behind the Ukrainian invasion. 

On Friday the Soviets announced they were eliminating age limits for military service.  Clearly the demographic squeeze has been complicated by the growing casualty toll from the Ukraine aggression and now requires that Putin cast a wider net for additional cannon fodder.  Just as the Nazis had to conscript children and old men before their capitulation so does the Russian warlord. 

It is all coming true...

Darwin Awards

Russian soldiers invading Ukraine spent weeks in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, digging trenches and bunkers in one of the most toxic places on earth, seemingly without concern for their own safety.

 

Russian Checkpoint - Exclusion Zone   Photo New York Times

 

As reported in the New York Times - as the staging ground for an assault on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, one of the most toxic places on earth, was probably not the best choice. But that did not seem to bother the Russian generals who took over the site in the early stages of the war.  The Russian war criminals dug it up anyway.

“We told them not to do it, that it was dangerous, but they ignored us,” Valeriy Simyonov, the chief safety engineer for the Chernobyl nuclear site, said in an interview.

Apparently undeterred by safety concerns, the Russian forces tramped about the grounds with bulldozers and tanks, digging trenches and bunkers — and exposing themselves to potentially harmful doses of radiation lingering beneath the surface.

As the assault on Kyiv collapsed and the Russians fled their toxic accommodations in retreat the imbeciles looted and sacked the place for radiated souvenirs. 

These goobers are angling for first place in the 2022 Darwin Awards.

 

Story here....

 

What to do With Ukraine?

So it's looking more and more like Rootn' Tootn' Putin is going to go to war with Ukraine.

Everything is playing out just as it is scripted in the Soviet era KGB playbook.  The Olympic Games are closed and China is appreciative of the polite delay.  Besides, if Putin doesn't commence hostilities at some level he loses his tactical advantage of bluffing in the future.  Notably, the US and our NATO allies cannot militarily intervene directly.  Ukraine is not a NATO member and as far as the we're concerned serves no strategic purpose.

Consider this.

Having gotten rid of the last recent vestige of Stalinist puppet leadership most Ukrainians are reveling in their resurrected nationalist fervor.  And who can blame them?  Ukrainians, by and large, know their future is brighter with a political and economic alignment with the west.

There is no future with their neighbor to the east.  Russia is a failed state governed by a dictatorship kleptocracy with a mobster mentality. Their population and life expectancy is in decline.  Their economy is driven by natural resource extraction – not technology or innovation.  The ruble is barely a third world currency. 

Ukraine is a huge country – about the size of Germany, Austria and Switzerland combined. It takes 17 hours to drive from one border to the other. Ukraine is home to 41.5 million people.  How do you occupy and pacify something as large and populous with 190,000 troops? 

The United States and our NATO partners should generously arm and equip Ukraine with the means to bleed the Soviet Bear.  After-all, Ukraine is not flat desert landscape.  It is European.  And is historically suited to an insurgency and a proxy war. 

MANPAD Stinger missiles would drop Russian helicopters from the sky by the score. 

Javelin anti-tank missiles are state of the art "shoot and scoot” weapons. You point it, acquire and lock it on to the target and it does the rest with a soft launch after which you casually saunter to another location for a cup of coffee. 

The threat of Javelins make Russian tank commanders shit their pants as this weapon system in the hands of an insurgent force can singularly turn their armor into smoking, molten, Instant Pots.

Even a casual study of Ukrainian resistance fighters during and after WWII is telling. Ukraine fought the Nazis, followed by the Polish Communist and the Soviet Communist armies.  By the time 1949 rolled-around the mortality rate for Soviet troops fighting Ukrainian insurgents was significantly higher than the mortality rate for Soviet troops during the Russian occupation of Afghanistan.  

Let's all agree that Ukrainians are adept at killing bad guys.

I wouldn’t expect that the Ukrainian people would do any less than we would do ourselves if faced with in invader seeking to occupy our country by means of force.

Stay-tuned......