Standoff

When we lived in Germany my folks took a trip thru East Germany to Berlin.  I still have my Soviet Visa authorizing my passage to the Russian Zone.  Yes, even a small child might have to produce his 'papers' on demand.  This was before the Soviets built a wall and before this cold war stand-off.  

By the time this photo was snapped in 1961 we had already returned stateside.  

In 2023, accompanied by two additional couples, we traveled thru what had previously been East Germany and took some photos at Checkpoint Charlie.  

What a difference 62 years makes.....

  

 

That KFC location is priceless.  Further evidence of significant progress following reunification.... 

Notable Quotable

Tell Medvedev, the failed former president of Russia, who thinks he's still president, to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous territory!

-President Donald Trump 

Russia is right about everything and will continue to go its own way.  

- Former President Dmitri Medvedev  

Notable Quotable

Russia should 'introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social, and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics'.

 - Alexander Dugin - Foundations of Geopolitics, 1997

Don't Look Up

On this day in history thirteen years ago a meteor entered the atmosphere above Chelyabinsk Oblast in the southern Ural region of Russia.  It exploded with the force estimated to be more than thirty times that of the nuclear device used on Hiroshima.  

Likely originating from the asteroid belt located between Mars and Jupiter it was estimated to be approximately 60 feet in diameter and 9100 tons.  Its approach to earth was a shallow trajectory with an estimated speed of 43,000 miles per hour.  The blinding light was visible up to 60 miles distant and exploded in an air burst at an altitude of about 18 miles (97,000 feet).  Remarkably, nobody saw it coming as its radiant (direction of approach) was from the sun.  

Even more remarkable, there were no deaths; although, almost 1,500 individuals sought medical treatment for injuries mostly from indirect injuries (broken glass) as a consequence of the shock waves from the blast.  7,200 buildings in six cities across the region were damaged. 

In the aftermath of the air burst a significant number of small meteorites fell in areas west of Chelyabinsk; described as gravel falling from the sky. In 2013 Russian scientists identified a two foot sized chunk buried in the muddy bottom of Lake Chebarkul.  It was recovered, broke the scales used to weigh it and split into three pieces.  

This meteor event is the largest known object to have entered the atmosphere since the Tunguska event in 1908 which destroyed a large forested area in a remote part of Siberia. 

Fact Checking

The European nations together have spent $100 billion, or maybe more than that, less than us.

- Donald Trump 

This is on the subject of Ukraine.  Donald Trump is either lying or confused (you pick) because he's got this turned-around.

The United States and Europeans spent roughly the the same amounts in the year immediately following Russia's unprovoked invasion and assault on their neighbor. 

European aid continued to grow in 2023 while aid from the US flatlined without GOP support. 

President Biden eventually secured a bipartisan aid package in April.

A Force For Good

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, was created in 1949 by 12 countries to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.  

To this day NATO's stated purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military deterrence.

Following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine previously non-aligned and neutral Finland and Sweden requested, hand-in-hand, membership in the alliance.  As a consequence, NATO has expanded and strengthened as a direct consequence of Putin's aggression.  

At the present time NATO has 32 member countries.  These countries, called NATO Allies, are sovereign states that come together through NATO to discuss political and security issues and make collective decisions by consensus

Article 5, which stands at the heart of NATO's founding says that an attack on any member of the alliance would be viewed as an attack on all.  If such an attack does occur, each member will take measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.  Article 5 has been invoked only once; following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.  NATO came to America's aid.

It's good to have friends.

NATO's recent expansion does not inherently threaten world peace or risk nuclear war.  It is a defensive alliance  focused on deterring aggression and protecting member states.   Any new memberships are driven by the voluntary decisions of sovereign nations seeking security.  Ukraine is not a NATO member; a potential for future membership would naturally be conditioned  on meeting specific criteria and the consensus of existing allies.  NATO has always emphasized responsible management of geopolitical dynamics and conflict prevention.

Contrast that with Russia's annexation of Crimea and expansionist designs over countries that it has historically considered part of the Russian sphere of influence.  To be clear, the alliance's doctrine aligns with the core belief that nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought; prioritizing deterrence in order to prevent conflicts.

NATO has successfully integrated Eastern European nations without triggering a major conflict demonstrating a capacity for responsible enlargement of the pact members.  NATO support for Ukraine is primarily defensive, aiming to enhance Ukraine's sovereignty.

NATO is not a monolithic organization and its membership doesn't always agree.  Such is the nature of a diverse membership of democracies, nonaligned nations and tolerance for differing points of view.  

On balance I believe that NATO has been good for Europe and good for Canada and the U.S.  It has been good for our economies and good for our defense forces.  It has been good for the world.

There is a minority that will take issue with my view; nevertheless, in a world with dangerously bad actors, in my opinion for 75 years NATO has been a force for good and it's better to be aligned with the good guys instead of the bad guys.

There will be a presidential election in November, the outcome of which portends the role of the US in the alliance and the security of democracies that form this alliance.  In case you missed it there is an unholy alliance of Russia, China and North Korea and Iran. 

NATO is a vital counterweight to the destabilizing influences of these unstable dictatorships.  It is as relevant to our security as the venerable (almost as old) B-52 bomber.  A deterrence and a force for good.

Unholy Alliance

In case you missed it, Warren Strobel and Mike Gordon over at the Wall Street Journal, authored a splendid piece of journalism highlighting how Vladimir Putin rebuilt Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine with the assistance of our adversaries - Iran, North Korea and China.

Russia's military cooperation with Iran, North Korea and China has expanded into the sharing of sensitive technologies that could threaten the US and its allies long after the war in Ukraine ends...

The speed and depth of the expanding security ties involving US adversaries has at times surprised US intelligence analysts.  Russia and the other nations have set aside historic frictions to collectively counter what they regard as a US-dominated global system, they said...

Russia's war in Ukraine is...propped up by China, North Korea and Iran, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday.  They want to see the US fail.  They want to see NATO fail.  If they succeed in Ukraine, it will make us more vulnerable and the world more dangerous.

This expansion among the world's most authoritarian and brutal regimes echoes observations made by Anne Applebaum and Bill Kristol. 

So communist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is - these aren't countries that share an ideology....But they do share a common interest.  And the common interest is undermining us.  And by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world... 

Their own oppositions, whether it's the Hong Kong democracy movement, or whether it's the Navalny movement in Russia, or whether it's the women's movement in Iran, are inspired by and use democratic language.  And they use the language of freedom and liberty and rights and rule of Law.  And the dictatorships need to undermine that language in order to keep in power domestically...

And they have an interest in shaping the debate inside the liberal democracies in ways that benefit them.  And increasingly, they've concluded that what benefits them is the rise of illiberal, disruptive and radical parties, because when that happens, the Western world or the democratic world loses its sense of community and solidarity.  It loses its ability to make group decisions.  If we're divided by radical politics in different  countries, then we're not very good at standing up to them.  And they very much see this as a war, as a competition, as a conflict, even if we don't. 

And so now, they are betting that Trump will be the person who destroys the United States, whether he makes it ungovernable, whether he assaults the institutions, so that they no longer function, whether he creates so much division and chaos that the US can't have a foreign policy anymore.  That's what they want, and that's what they're hoping he will do.  And again, I don't want to the conspiratorial about how much power they have.  They don't run US elections, but they will try to influence the outcome however they can, because they think he will weaken the country ultimately.  And, by the way, from what we know, the Chinese are only just beginning to experiment in this world.  From what we know, the Chinese agree.  So, he's the candidate of the authoritarian world, not because he'll make America stronger, but ultimately because they think he'll make America weaker.

May you live in interesting times - has long been claimed to be a Chinese curse.  Who knows for sure?  What we know for sure is the world is a dangerous place and Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are seriously bad actors.  An unholy alliance.

*Content courtesy of The Bulwark

More Russian Intrigue

My first thought was a false flag operation with Putin's fingerprints on it to pin the blame on Ukraine.  That may still be the case.

Or not.

Stay-tuned for developments.....

Useful Idiot?

A couple of weeks ago Russian President Vladimir Putin sat down with Tucker Carlson for an interview.  I finally got around to watching it myself.

Having been critical over the years of those who are cozy with the former KGB Colonel I was curious as to what Carlson was going to say and what the interview might reveal.  Heretofore, Carlson has been largely critical of any aid or support for Ukraine's defense.  In November of 2019 he said he was rooting for Russia.  Since Putin launched his war on Ukraine almost two years ago Carlson has been supportive of Putin and claimed (without any evidence) that financial support for Ukraine went to Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife.  Let me be clear, Carlson is not a journalist; he's a commentator.  I wanted to watch the interview in its entirety and form an opinion afterward.

Key takeaways include the following:

In a rambling forty minute homily Putin justified his invasion of Ukraine arguing that Russia has a historic claim to much of western Ukraine reaching back to the 13th century.  And that Ukrainian territory bordering the Black Sea has no historical connection to Ukraine whatsoever.

Furthermore, Putin claimed that it was Ukraine, following Russia's annexation of Crimea, that instigated the war in 2014.  He denied any responsibility for provoking hostilities.

Carlson did push back on Putin's revisionist history lecture including Russia's role in WWII and the formation of the Soviet Union asking what history had to do with what happened a couple of years ago.

Putin also complained about the eastern expansion of NATO and that Russia had to push back against this expansion; again. leading up to the war in Ukraine.

Finally, Putin played the Nazi card claiming that one of Russia's goals is the de-Nazification of and prohibition of Neo-Nazi movements in Ukraine.

Carlson asked Putin if he has evidence supporting the claim that the CIA was responsible for the destruction of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea.  Putin offered no tangible evidence but claimed that Russia should look for someone who's interested and has capabilities.

Asked if Putin would be willing to release Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Putin told Carlson a prisoner exchange would probably lead to his release and is essentially controlled by the US authorities.

So, was this a propaganda win for Putin?  A blockbuster interview for Carlson?  My sense is that Putin saw this interview as an opportunity to telegraph to the US that there is no further point to assisting Ukraine with more weaponry and financial support as the war will continue regardless.  Putin is in for the long term and is willing to wait, at least until after the 2024 election, with the hope that Donald Trump is returned to the White House.  I think Putin believes Trump and a far right congress will be more pliable and sympathetic to Moscow's narratives.  He views Americans as fundamentally weak.

And speaking of elections, Mr. Putin has a presidential election next month.  The outcome of which cannot be in any doubt.  That said, he has to play to his Russian audience as a leader with a global platform.  State-controlled media outlets breathlessly hyped Carlson's visit as if it were that of a head of state.

On balance I call this a win for Putin and given the state-sponsored lecture from one of the world's great villains; a disappointment for Carlson.  The interview was lame; it was one-sided and anticlimactic. 

I've never understood the far right's fatuous admiration and embrace of Putin.  Of course, I don't understand the far left's pro-Hamas love affair either.  I guess the fringe has a high tolerance for stone-cold killers and war criminals.  Which would explain why they're the fringe.

So, is Tucker Carlson a useful idiot?  Consider the history of this term.  It originally applied to Western intellectuals who naively supported the Bolsheviks and Soviets by ignoring the universal truths of a brutal dictatorship.  Stalin despised such people yet considered them helpful in advancing his message.  Yesterday the death of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny was confirmed.  Until then I would have characterized Mr. Carlson as a garden variety Putin shill.  Today he has been promoted to useful idiot. 

Perform your own due diligence and watch the interview in its entirety here.  My readers are smart enough to draw their own conclusions.....

Sucks To Be The Opposition

Further evidence that in Putin's Russia if you stand up to the former KGB colonel you might perish from a 6th floor defenestration, your aircraft may fall from the sky or you die in a Soviet Gulag.

Sucks to be a member of the opposition......

European Militaries Lag

From time to time I talk about military world events here.  That's what armchair generals do.  Besides, anyone with half a brain is entitled to an opinion about world events. This news interests me a great deal considering the world is a dangerous place.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that some of Europe's best known armed forces are paper tigers.  

The United Kingdom is home to only about 150 deployable tanks along with maybe as many as a dozen long-range artillery pieces.  If you can believe it, the Brits considered sourcing multiple rocket launchers from museums to upgrade and donate to Ukraine; an idea that was promptly abandoned.

France, a bigger spender, had less than 90 heavy artillery pieces; the equivalent to what Russia loses each and every month on the Ukraine battlefield.  

Denmark has no heavy artillery, submarines or air-defense systems.

Germany's army has an inventory of ammunition sufficient for two days of battle. 

All of this is evidence of the deplorable readiness of Europe's armies and dependence on the US for home defense.

To be clear, this is only one publication's summation and not all NATO members are created equal.  In aggregate, NATO forces are considered technologically superior to Russia. although NATO's ability to engage successfully in joint operations is untested.  The Ukraine conflict is evidence that a smaller, better managed force can give the Russians fits.

If Western European nations aren't willing to spend sufficiently to defend themselves, why should we?  Looks like Donald Trump was on to something when he leaned on NATO members who were not living up to their minimum 2% of GDP defense authorization commitment.

Anyway, read the entire article, linked above, for full context.  This is likely ground-shaking enough that you can find a public link to the story that gets you past the paywall. 

Where Does The Money Go?

There has been a considerable amount of talk of late about military aid to Israel and Ukraine.   To suggest it must be either one or the other is a false dilemma fallacy.  For reasons that I will get to in the conclusion of this post I believe it can and should be both.  If you want to condition it on a more muscular approach to securing our southern border I'm OK with that too.  Horsetrading is how you govern.  As you read this you will get the impression I'm comfortable with security; both here and abroad.

Today I want to dispel some of the misinformation I catch from media soundbites and from the general cesspool of deceptions planted on social media by Russian and Communist Red Chinese trolls specifically as it relates to aid to Ukraine.

Congress has appropriated $113.3 billion since February of 2022 to assist Ukraine in its fight against Russia's unprovoked invasion.  This money has been provided in four tranches known as supplementals.  

To better understand  the purpose of the support these funds are divided among nine buckets including:  Economic support, weapons back-fill, Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, Defense Department accounts, humanitarian and civil society assistance, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), other non-defense efforts, oversight and other defense efforts.

From a defense perspective, the supplemental appropriations allow for the rapid transfer of equipment and supplies from Department Of Defense (DOD) stockpiles to Ukrainian forces under something called the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA).  This is an executive power granted by congress in 1961 to the commander in chief.

Some have mischaracterized US support to Ukraine as a blank check.  The political spin is to leave an undiscerning individual with the impression we are shipping pallets of cash currency to a country at war.  The truth is that the vast majority of the money is actually spent here at home for production contracts with US companies manufacturing ammunition, weapons and equipment to back-fill our own stocks.

Almost all of the military aid sent to Ukraine is older cold war weapons systems and materiel.  This stuff represents a sunk cost budgeted under prior defense authorizations dating back as far as the 1970s.  There is no small amount irony in the knowledge that stuff our military purchased for an expected European land war with the Soviets is being given to Ukrainians to defend against Russians.  It also happens to save the US taxpayer the cost and trouble of eventual disposal.

Naturally, older inventory sent to Ukraine has to be replaced.  It is important to note that the replacement of US weapons stocks will include the latest version of war fighting technology and will stimulate the development of newer, necessary technologies.  Why is this important?  The nature of warfare has changed and if expensive systems such as HIMARS can be electronically jammed, then we'd be well-served to know that now and build replacements that cannot be compromised. 

Before Ukraine who knew we had the capability to shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles with the Patriot system?  Or how to deal with the broad deployment of drones on the battlefield - something US forces have not had to face.  This is real-time testing of American military equipment against the best Russia has to offer. This affords us an opportunity to build better systems to defend against a sophisticated adversary.  Peace through strength.

And yes, helping Ukraine defend itself against an unprovoked Russian invasion is money well-spent because Russia will not stop at Ukraine.  Putin has stated that his next objective after Ukraine will be Poland and the Baltic states.  Sweden and Finland have joined NATO as they know they are targets of Russian expansionism.  And China would see our non-support of Ukraine as an open invitation to invade Taiwan.  But I digress.

Getting back to where the money is going, about $69 billion of the $113 billion (60 percent) will be spent in the United states, benefiting our armed forces and US industry. 

In conclusion, I do not support Ukraine because it is better for our military preparedness, the economy or as a shareholder.  To be absolutely clear, we should never forget the human cost of war.  And this disastrous conflict wasn't started by the west or Ukraine.  Russia picked this fight and if Russia is allowed to succeed the US may pay for it many times over, in treasure and in lives.  

I believe it is proper to be thoughtful and judicious about military and humanitarian aid to others.  This is not warmongering jingoism.  Consider this:  Russia and Hamas are the nexus of aggression and disinformation along with their Iranian patrons.  You can bet that China and North Korea are paying close attention.  Countries such as Ukraine and Israel are worthy of our material support to defend themselves from aggressors bent-upon their annihilation.

The moral depravity of the pro-Hamas left and the pro-Putin right have made our world an exceedingly dangerous place.  Helping Israel and Ukraine stand up to the bad guys is doing the right thing.  

Charts: American Enterprise Institute

Evil Personified

Russia’s bloody and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has strategically made use of rape, abductions, torture and the targeting of civilians.  These are war crimes and evil personified.

Hamas’ bloody and unprovoked attack on Israel has been rife with rape, abductions and the slaying of civilians; including children.  All war crimes and stunningly evil.

 

Iran is a twisted degenerate theocracy; a barbaric defilement of one of the religions of Abraham.

 

Russia, Iran and Hamas are complicit. 

 

The war in Ukraine has seen Russia become reliant on Israel’s most serious rival in the Middle East. Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles have become vital to Moscow’s war efforts due to their effectiveness and affordability. Additionally, Tehran is seeking billions of dollars of Russian military goods in exchange for its support, which includes allowing Moscow to create its own versions of Iranian attack UAVs.

 

There are Russian remarks directed at Zelensky, who is Jewish. Last month, Putin himself said Western Masters put a person at the head of modern Ukraine an ethnic Jew, with Jewish roots, with Jewish origins to help glorify Nazism.  This has been a tiring and oft-repeated trope.

All the while the war in Ukraine has drawn Russia closer to Iran, Israel’s most powerful regional rival and a key backer of Hamas.  It is the attacks by Russia and Hamas that are harrowing echoes of Nazi massacres. 

 

Meanwhile, China is watching and waiting to see how things play out for those who ‘went first’. And BTW - North Korea’s role in this makes the circle complete. 

 

Yup, Russia, Iran, China, North Korea.

 

I know evil and I know bad guys and their apologists when I see them.   Including the moral depravity of the pro Hamas left and the pro Putin cheerleaders of the right. They disgust me. Their machinations have caused the world to become a more dangerous place.

 

How hard is it to condemn and stand-up to the murder of civilian noncombatants?

Palace Intrigue

In the weeks leading up to his purported death Yevgeny Prigozhin by all outward appearances seemed to be in a struggle with the Russian defense ministry over his criminal business empire in Africa.  

His comments in a video suggests that this video clip may have been recorded on or about August 19-20, mere days before an airplane that fell from the sky with his name on the passenger manifest. These comments imply that he was aware of the risks to his life.

Prigozhin, the warlord, was known to be preoccupied with his safety.  He owned multiple passports issued by various countries.  He wore disguises.  He frequently used body doubles to avoid attempts on his life. 

 

For everyone discussing whether I am alive or not and how I'm doing.  It's currently a weekend in the second half of August 2023.  I am in Africa.  So for those who like to speculate about my liquidation, my private life, my work there, or anything else; everything's fine.  Video- Grey Zone Telegram.

Russian authorities confirmed he's dead.  Wagner has confirmed he's dead; and buried.  Most reliable media outlets say he's dead.  Nevertheless, some Wagner PMC members do not believe that Prigozhin is dead.  His name on a passenger list is insufficient evidence.  Same for anything official said on the subject from Kremlin mouthpieces.  Other doubters insist that because Prigozhin faked his death previously in Arab Africa he's done it again and that he will resurface at a later date.

So, is he dead or alive?  I have my own thoughts that it is the former.  Yet, one thing seems for certain is that the myth surrounding his personality will persist.  There is no shortage of Russian intrigue and interweb conspiracies to feed it.  And no shortage of appetites to devour  it.

A Prigozhin interview in May with pro-war blogger Semyon Pegov included these prescient words:  We'll all end up in hell, but it we'll be in the best of hell.  Kill me if you will, but I'm not going to lie, I have to honestly say that Russia is on the brink of catastrophe.  If those cogs are not adjusted today, the airplane will fall apart in midair.

Prophetic for Prigozhin?  Or a metaphor about Russia?  Somethings seem to never change.

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia.  it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key.  That key is Russian national interest.

-Winston Churchill

 

Palace Intrigue

It was only a few short months ago when a puzzling mutiny led by Wagner mercenary group strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin rattled Vladimir Putin and the Russian military.

This blogger has been wondering ever since why Putin, who accused Prigozhin of treason, allowed him to live.  Ordinarily, Vlad's enemies suffer radioactive polonium poisoning or strangely fall to their deaths from eighth floor windows.  Maybe Putin was waiting for the perfect opportunity?

Telegram/WAGNER_svodki

And Prigozhin's private aircraft fell from the sky last Wednesday.  Let's be clear, I've watched enough aircraft disaster episodes on the Smithsonian Channel to know that burning aircraft do not ordinarily drop from the sky. 

We don't know for sure if a bomb planted on board caused the aircraft to explode or if it was destroyed by antiaircraft fire.  Has anybody said for sure that the mercenary chief's remains have been recovered?  It has been reported that seven passengers and three crew members perished in the crash less than 200 miles north of Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Perskov would tell you any involvement by Putin is: an absolute lie.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko obliquely suggested:  I cannot imagine that Putin did it; that Putin is to blame.

Nothing like a healthy dose of Kremlin intrigue.  I've got some acquaintances who insist nothing coming out of Russia should be taken as factual or the truth.  Russia and its leaders have historically had an uncomfortable relationship with purges, coups, disappearances and assassinations.  And I suppose that amongst the elite gangster class of Russian oligarchs anyone who previously thought they might voice criticism of Putin is going to clam-up with the knowledge that any challenge to his authority is going to lead to a death sentence.  

Of course there's likely more than a handful off pissed-off Wagner people out there.  I wonder what's to come of this hired gun empire?

The Kremlin's war against Ukraine will likely persist and whispers about Putin's management of the conflict will persist as well.  One has to wonder if any of this is a morale boost for the conscript army being squandered on Putin's unprovoked invasion.  What a waste.

The bottom line is the public assassination of Prigozhin highlights the decades-long descent of Russia into a mafia state.  A vast criminal enterprise barely held together with barbarousness and completely incapable of global leadership.  A failed state.

The people over at the Wall Street Journal have had, what I consider, the best coverage of this unfolding event.  They published a terrific piece on the Wagner Chieftain's last days.  Check it out; it's a good read.

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia.  it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key.  That key is Russian national interest.

-Winston Churchill 

Edit to add - Sunday morning (08.27.23), in a statement published on the Telegram messaging service, Russia's Investigative Committee said the identities of all of the aircraft's passengers had been confirmed with "molecular-genetic examinations."

Wagner sympathizers had held out hope that the mercenary leader was somehow still alive and that his death was faked.

The state apparatus reports he's dead.  And, of course, Russian state media is unimpeachable.

Palace Intrigue

One of the side benefits of retirement is the amount of time that you have to devote to other interests.  Volunteering, education, cooking and baking, community service, reading and your thoughts.  

The thing about thinking and thoughts is that you get to speculate.  I'm not talking about speculating in the investment world of stocks and bonds or commodities.  I'm smart enough to avoid that like a case of the clap.  I am referring to speculation as it applies to conjecture on a subject without firm evidence.  There are times I like to indulge in speculation on political, social, geopolitical and related subject matter - local and otherwise.  The good news is that it earned me the role of being a class coordinator for a current affairs class at the community college - a good thing.  It also earned me the label of Armchair General as it relates to my musings on Russia.  I don't believe it was intended as a pejorative; likely more out of frustration over my standing firm on hostile actors and performative politicians.  

No big deal on my end as I get called plenty of names for standing firm.  Besides, I am also an armchair gardener, armchair class coordinator, armchair pizza maker, armchair astronomer and so on.  Last month I got a bartender license; add that to the list.  Jack of many trades and master of none.  You get the drift.  But I digress.

A week has passed since Wagner Group strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin ended his march on Moscow thusly avoiding large-scale Russian on Russian bloodshed. In and of itself this was both disorienting and alarming.  And after the passage of seven days I am unconvinced that any layperson has absolutely definitive knowledge about the causes for how events played-out.  Although there is plenty of speculation. 

For the record I haven't any inside information.   Although it appears that Russian leadership has, temporarily at least, descended into the national equivalent of a dumpster fire. 

Some observations and and idle speculation. 

Was what transpired an elaborately staged deep fake?  Was Prigozhin out to topple Vladimir Putin?  I don't think so. 

Was Prigozhin trying to save his business enterprise (his sweat equity in Wagner) from being subsumed into Russian command?  And save his own scalp?  These have possibilities.

Did he have co-conspirators in the Kremlin or Russian military?  Will Wagner fighters follow their boss to Belarus?  Will they return to carry the fight to Ukraine?  Has Prigozhin triggered a Kremlin purge?  Is this the end of Prigozhin or the beginning?  All of this is anybody's guess.

What I think is that Prigozhin's folk hero send-off as he prepared to depart Rostov for life in Belarusian exile was a bad look for Putin.  The normally reclusive Putin spent considerable time last week posing for staged selfies.  It is impossible to know if events have left Putin weakened, strengthened or vindictive.  Prigozhin has suggested that Putin's reasons for invading Ukraine were based on lies fed to him by the Kremlin's top brass; a fraud.  Has this struck a chord with ordinary Russians? 

A falling out amongst gangsters comes with all manner of loyalty complications; including, but not limited to, poisoning by means of polonium and falling from a sixth floor window.  Gangsters typically feel compelled to reassert their primacy.

Either way you slice it Putin clearly does not have a succession plan in place and the notion of Russia (with all of its nukes) descending into civil war is unnerving.  The dimmest of armchair generals understands this.  It would probably be a good idea to give the Russians sufficient space to sort this out on their own.

Of course there's a candidate for POTUS who claims he can fix all of this in 24 hours.  If any of you readers know what the recipe is for the Secret Sauce I'm all ears.  Otherwise it's just more speculation.

In closing there is this.  This last week Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. hosted former U.N. arms inspector and convicted child sex predator, Scott Ritter on his podcast to rhapsodize over CIA conspiracy theories and defend Russian president Vladimir Putin as a man who will go down in history as one of the greatest leaders of all time.

Seriously, you can’t possibly make this stuff up....

 

Palace Intrigue

Beginning Friday evening and extending into all day yesterday what appeared to be a fast-moving mutiny in Russia unfolded and was resolved in a matter of hours.

Was Wagner Group strongman Yevgeniy Prigozhin fomenting an insurrection or a putsch?

The march on Moscow came to an abrupt halt with what appeared to be a deal brokered by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.  Prigozhin will live in exile in lovely Belarus, Wagner Group mercenaries will alternately be disbanded or absorbed into the Russian command structure.

What does this mean for Vladimir Putin?  What does this mean for Prigozhin?  Does this development have meaningful consequences for Ukraine?  Does Russian instability impact their unprovoked invasion of a neighbor?   What red lines have been crossed?  What are the implications for gangster loyalty?  What next?

Or was this a non-coup?  A deep fake choreographed by Putin and Prigozhin?  A retreat from defeat in Ukraine disguised as a coup.  Or an excuse to consolidate Wagner into the regular Russian army? 

Speculation and conspiracy theories are cheap.

Churchill said it best -

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia.  it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key.  That key is Russian national interest.

Who Started This Anyway?

Among other expert podcasts I digest among my favorites includes Peter Zeihan.  Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst.  He  studies how place impacts financial, economic, cultural, political and military developments; and makes them understandable to a layperson. 

This is the fifth question of his Q&A series:  Who is the ultimate provocateur in the Ukraine War?  He doesn't think his answer will surprise anyone.

If Russian propaganda has led you to believe that nazi-jewish-gay-demons run Ukraine maybe this isn't the video for you.  Equally as absurd is the idea that NATO and the US are responsible for Ukraine being in this situation.

The US has seen NATO growth since the Cold War's end; roughly 20 countries have joined, and many of them are former Soviet territories.  But joining NATO is no cakewalk.  It's a grueling process and must be unanimously agreed-upon by all members.

So the idea that NATO started this war and has been plotting to eliminate Russia is a stretch.  

Besides, when you actively send tens of thousands of troops into another country, it's pretty hard to get the red off your hands.

Take time to watch.  Five minutes well-spent.....