The mid-term elections are a little more than three months away and hardly a day goes by that there isn't a claim by the White House of the recent special elections being stolen, how millions of illegal immigrants are routinely voting and how Democrats are scheming to steal the mid-term elections. These baseless claims nearly always include a reminder of how the 2020 elections were rigged.
None of this is surprising as polling isn't looking very good for the GOP's chances of retaining the House; and as the president's approval rating continues to fall; now even retaining a GOP majority in the Senate is at some small risk of peril. Naturally, Republicans will do whatever is necessary to retain power in the representative branch of government.
In light of the foregoing someone should read to the president the 2022 Report: Lost Not Stolen; composed by eight conservative Republicans including a couple of former GOP senators, three former appellate judges, a former Republican solicitor general and a couple of Republican election law specialists. They examined all 187 counts in the 64 court challenges filed by Trump and his supporters. What did they find?
Twenty of those cases were dismissed on their merits before being heard and an additional fourteen were voluntarily withdrawn by Trump and his supporters before being heard. Of the thirty that were heard on their merits, Trump prevailed in only one, Pennsylvania, involving far too few votes to change the election outcome. In Arizona, the most exhaustively scrutinized state, a private firm specifically chosen by Trump's team confirmed the president's loss finding 261 fewer Trump votes and an additional 99 votes for Biden.
Even the Heritage Foundation's database undermines Donald Trump's claims of election fraud. But don't take my word for it; click on Wisconsin and you will learn of exactly 68 proven cases of election malfeasance from 1982 through 2025. It happens; but blessedly in small amounts insufficient to swing a national election.
Yet, here we are. We began with Trump's demands that Red States engage in partisan redistricting (gerrymandering) including proposed legislation like the Save Act; all intended to make voting more onerous for those less likely to support a Republican candidate.
The show of force by ICE and CBP agents terrorizing blue neighborhoods in dozens of cities may have been a dress rehearsal for their eventual presence at polling places. Seizing ballots in Georgia from the previous presidential election provides context for extending the baseless narrative claiming widespread voter fraud.
Is it a real stretch that Trump's threat to nationalize elections in fifteen states may come to pass? Certainly the potential consequences of masked federal agents confronting voters at polling places is dire. Voters may recall the killing of Alex Pretti, Renee Nicole Goode and Ruben Martinez without consequence for the triggermen. In the last few weeks an ICE agent shot and killed a Columbian man in Maine and a Mexican citizen in Houston, Texas. If enough fear is generated it is possible that it might suppress voter turnout in key Democratic precincts.
If all else fails; inciting violence, as was done on January 6, 2021 and recently in Minneapolis could be used as an excuse for the imposition of martial law and suspension of the mid-term elections altogether. Trump's blanket pardon of the January 6 rioters and on-again, off-again, promise to reward them from a $1.8 billion taxpayer-funded slush fund laid down the marker; he has got you covered.
Given all the other actions of the Trump administration I cannot conceive of anything that would be a surprise. Consider this plot line:
Donald Trump is obsessed with convincing his supporters he won the 2020 election. His hold on power is all about the appearance of winning. Control over elections is dispersed among thousands of elections officials across the country making cancellation exceedingly difficult. Plenty of commentators have declared America's decentralized election system a strength. The implication being that Trump cannot take over all elections across the country. But that's not something he needs to do. What he needs to do is tamper with elections in just a handful of places. America's decentralized system may make that a lot easier as procedures aren't standardized nationwide and elections aren't monitored by an established, professional commission. Tampering with a few local elections, often managed by volunteers, seems a lot easier under the circumstances.
Consequently, this has more to do with election subversion not cancellation. The goal is simple; keep the elections going without unseating those already in power.
In January the president repeated his threat to prosecute election officials who oversaw the 2020 election. As a follow-on the FBI raided the election office for Fulton County, Georgia and seized election ballots and records. Was this a dry run or a dress rehearsal? You pick.
At the same time, federal officials have collected voter data from eleven states that have agreed to turn-over their voter registration lists. Predictably, we will hear that there are hordes of previously unrevealed noncitizens on the voter roles. Accordingly, during his confirmation hearing to head-up the Department of Homeland Security, Senator Markwayne Mullin said this about deploying ICE to polling locations: "The only reason why my officers would be there is if there was a specific threat for them to be there; not for intimidation."
That tune has changed; in the first week of June in a Senate hearing Mullin refused to explicitly commit to abiding by all federal court orders. In his testimony before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security, Mullin stated that the courts are politicized and therefore judges use their benches for political opinions instead of the rule of law. Does Mullin believe he can therefore ignore a federal court order?
With the appointment in April of Todd Blanche as acting Attorney General and housing official Bill Pulte to lead the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Trump now has three loyal enforcers in Mullin, Blanche and Pulte to deliver on orders from the White House. ODNI has drawn scrutiny for an expanded role in election security and my spider sense is tingling.
I've come around to thinking that Trump usually gets around to doing just about everything he says he'll do; eventually. The President, administration appointees and his supporters often tell you exactly what they will do. They are very good at saying the quiet part out loud. So, if Steve Bannon says ICE will be at the polls; perhaps we should believe him.
Trump might use ICE and CBP, his now loyal militia, on November 4th to seize mail-in ballots in key competitive districts. This will stop or delay the certification of those new Democrat Representative and Senators. He will tie it up in the courts for months by claiming foreign interference with mail-in ballots. Whatever it takes to delay the seating of a Democratic Congress.
Most Congressional elections are noncompetitive with completely predictable winners. Of the 435 seats in the House only about 40 will be seriously contested. Who controls the House will therefore depend completely on those 40 or so elections. For that reason the Trump administration has no need to control every election in the country - it simply has to put its thumb on the scale in about 40 House elections.
The Senate is similarly noncompetitive; but in a few swing states the strategy to distort the election requires manipulating the vote in a few precincts that are likely to determine who wins. Again, election interference doesn't have to be widespread. It can focus on just a few key precincts and districts.
Neither Russia, China or Iran has yet to cancel an election. For these nations the institutions and elections persist; only the results are fudged to to keep authoritarian incumbents in place. Having "won" the election they are subsequently legitimized.
In the absence of Truth, Justice and the American Way I have to conjure-up a bizarrely unthinkable scheme that makes me sound like a garden variety conspiracy kook; yet, given the current cast of characters is entirely plausible.
Meanwhile, in a preview of the fall strategy to cast doubt on election outcomes the president gave a televised 26-minute address Thursday evening. He promised proof of election tampering; the follow-on documents offered no evidence that such vulnerabilities were being exploited nor anything we haven't heard-about before and previously debunked. On Friday morning even Fox News was mute on the subject.
Looks like we're in for a belly-full of belly-aching.
Stay-tuned and strap-in.....
Posts
