Guardians Or Gladiators?

Almost a year and a half ago I published a short post titled: Following Orders.  I was musing about how a future Trump administration might deploy the military within the country's borders.  Fast forward to the present and we're learning more about this almost every day; and while I am famous for bad predictions that post from April of 2024 was seemingly prescient.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

I've never served in the military; consequently I can only speak as a civilian.  What I think I know is that fundamentally there are significant differences between local law enforcement officers and army national guard soldiers.

Civilian law enforcement academies and technical colleges focus on things like criminal law, civil rights, de-escalation and community engagement.  Day-to-day law enforcement includes enforcing criminal law, traffic safety, conducting investigations and community policing.  Sheriff deputies and police officers are seen as front line guardians of law and order.  And, at least where I live, they are a familiar presence as a consequence of daily interaction with the local population.

National guard soldiers receive military training including things like combat readiness, tactical operations, discipline and a military occupational specialty.  Some military police units train for law enforcement, but their orientation is different from civilian policing.  Guard units are populated by citizen soldiers who have civilian jobs or perhaps attend school while training part-time and sharpening their readiness to act when called upon by their state governor or the President.   

Nevertheless, national guard troops do serve in temporary support roles.  This can include crowd and riot control, (civil unrest events), disaster response (hurricanes, floods, wildfires), infrastructure protection (power plants, airports, hospitals) and augmenting first responders when local resources are overwhelmed.

Mostly, the guard is our federal reserve force for wartime missions and overseas deployment.  They blow stuff-up, defeat opposing forces and achieve battlefield dominance.  Soldiers are war-fighters; modern day gladiators.  

Between you and me I think having armed troops on our main streets is unsustainable for the long term.  It is an expensive short-term fix.  Furthermore, it is poor optics; if it were to happen around here the tourists would stay home and businesses would be grumpy.  The former is fact the latter is opinion.

There has been chatter on social media including people suggesting that president Trump is seeking to accomplish a couple of things; namely the normalization of military deployments to conduct law enforcement.  Secondly, provoking some kook or nutjob to commit an act of political violence thereby escalating tensions by such means that he can invoke the insurrection act, declare martial law and suspend elections.  Sounds rather conspiratorial, eh?  Inexplicably, most of my previously self-identified libertarian acquaintances have gone silent on this subject so we can save a discussion of the Posse Comitatus Act for another day.  

I happen to believe that Donald Trump eventually gets around to attempting everything he says he wants to do.  And he has repeatedly said he would consider or invoke the Insurrection Act, including in public statements in June 2025 during his current presidency.

Meanwhile, Speaker Michael Johnson's home state of Louisiana, and New Orleans in particular, boast some of the the highest murder rates in the country.  One has to wonder why Governor Jeff Landry called-up and deployed Louisiana guard troops to Washington, DC; instead of Speaker Johnson's home district?  The correct answer is political theater; nevertheless, all of this can be combustible.  See paragraph eight (above) about the president shouting Fire! in an otherwise quiet theater.

The administration is populated with pliant sycophants who will unquestionably act on the president's orders.  Therefore, the execution of sketchy orders will fall to the next line of senior military officers.

It is gonna be interesting how this unfolds.....

Con Man

I had an interesting text exchange with a pal a couple months back.  

Hi Tom.  I read your recent blog entry about Trump and the assassination attempt. I know you hate Trump.  I'd like to know what policies that Biden had you agree with and support.

What a strange request from out of nowhere.

First of all, this interrupted my favorite cooking program - The Great American Recipe - so I was mildly annoyed.  If I had to hazard a guess he and another pal were hanging-out, enjoying adult beverages and spontaneously decided to poke the bear.  Taking the bait I continued with a flurry of texts as he badgered me for a policy of Old Uncle Joe's that I supported. 

Seeking to end the tedium I settled on the largely bipartisan policy that provided military aid to Taiwan and Ukraine. 

Considering this is a bright guy I was surprised he didn't recognize a protest vote when he sees one.  

To be clear, I don't hate Donald Trump.  I happen to think there are plenty of normal stand-up Republicans that make for better candidates.  There's history to my membership in the Never Trumper Club long before it became a thing.

My first impression of Donald Trump dates to 1983 or 84 (or thereabouts).  Back in the day I had taken a promotion to supervise securities sales for the firm I was associated-with.  This engaged me with a broker-dealer headquartered in Providence, RI who happened to be owned by a large insurance company with a home office in Newark, NJ.  Long story short, I traveled regularly to Providence and because NYC was (and still is) a financial center across the river from Newark, on occasion I traveled there.  

I stayed at the new Vista International Hotel for meetings.  This was a Marriott property located at One World Trade Center in lower Manhattan.  Back during COVID I picked a book from my library to read and lo-and-behold it contained a bookmark, a page from a hotel notepad. The Vista International. That sent a chill down my spine as this hotel is no more.  It was destroyed in the collapse of the twin towers as a consequence of the terror attacks on 9/11.  But I digress.

During my travels I came to know New York City - which happened to be a very different place four decades ago.  Times Square was a collection of seedy porn establishments and boom box stores.  There was petty crime to accompany the graft, corruption and garbage.  It was during this time I learned of a brash, local real estate developer with an outsized libido who always seemed to be working an angle.

One of the stories making the rounds included this developer's pitch for a seminar or workshop.  Attendees could expect to learn about his "Midas Touch"; and the path to wealth in the Manhattan real estate world would be revealed.  It wasn't a cheap date as the price of admission was something north of a thousand dollars.  A tidy sum back in those days but the hook was that there would be an opportunity to have a photo taken with the mogul himself.

As it turned-out, the seminar was supposedly conducted by a low level minion and the photo-op was with a life size cardboard cut-out.

I thought to myself;  Huh? This guy is nothing but a con man.  A con man from Queens.  That was my first impression.  And first impressions count for a lot.  For me anyway.  Whether or not this narrative was factual it sure foreshadowed the much larger scam later perpetrated by Trump University.  Which makes the tale believable.  And perhaps explains the general NYC animus for Mr. Trump that persists to this day.

By the way, you can purchase your own life size cardboard Trump cutout from Walmart.  It will set you back $50 to $120; but that's a far cry from getting fleeced for maybe a couple of grand forty years ago.

With the passage of time Manhattan has cleaned-up its act.  The porno shops and boom box stores are gone from Times Square.  As a vibrant retail and entertainment district this was home base for a family vacation a couple of years ago.  There is still garbage on the sidewalk; but at least it's bagged.  

 

 

Investigative Journalist Jonathan Greenberg joins Ari Melber to discuss newly uncovered tapes from his 1984 interview with Donald Trump, in which Trump pretended to be his own spokesperson and lied about his assets to make the Forbes 400 list. Greenberg points out that Trump was able to secure billions of dollars in loans from his profile in Forbes that year.

 

For some subjects the more things change the more they stay the same.  And now you know the backstory.

A Fine Kettle Of Fish

Of likely Scottish genesis the title of this post is said to have its origins when the fishing catch was cooked in a fish kettle and served as a picnic meal.  Sounds like a Door County fish boil; but I digress.   

After the feast all the leftover bones, heads and skin would be left in the kettle resembling a mess. 

It is also the name of the current affairs class I help coordinate for the Learning In Retirement program at the local community college.

There is also a gathering on most Friday mornings of locals who meet at the offices for the Door County Community Foundation.  

You're probably scratching your head wondering, where is he going with this brain fart?

I've learned a great deal.  Covering a lot of ground I've covered much new subject matter.  I've learned about things I did not know before and become a better listener.  I still hold opinions.  A few of my opinions have changed.  Most have not.  A few of my opinions have become stronger.  Through both of these venues I've learned much and made many new friends - most of whom share a differing point of view or political opinion. We also share a common trait.

Respect.

It is sad to lose a friendship over a differing point of view or opinion.  And it is joy to maintain friendships and make new friends because it is OK to have differing views and be okay with each other.

No echo chamber.

Lesson learned. 

Unholy Alliance

In case you missed it, Warren Strobel and Mike Gordon over at the Wall Street Journal, authored a splendid piece of journalism highlighting how Vladimir Putin rebuilt Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine with the assistance of our adversaries - Iran, North Korea and China.

Russia's military cooperation with Iran, North Korea and China has expanded into the sharing of sensitive technologies that could threaten the US and its allies long after the war in Ukraine ends...

The speed and depth of the expanding security ties involving US adversaries has at times surprised US intelligence analysts.  Russia and the other nations have set aside historic frictions to collectively counter what they regard as a US-dominated global system, they said...

Russia's war in Ukraine is...propped up by China, North Korea and Iran, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday.  They want to see the US fail.  They want to see NATO fail.  If they succeed in Ukraine, it will make us more vulnerable and the world more dangerous.

This expansion among the world's most authoritarian and brutal regimes echoes observations made by Anne Applebaum and Bill Kristol. 

So communist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is - these aren't countries that share an ideology....But they do share a common interest.  And the common interest is undermining us.  And by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world... 

Their own oppositions, whether it's the Hong Kong democracy movement, or whether it's the Navalny movement in Russia, or whether it's the women's movement in Iran, are inspired by and use democratic language.  And they use the language of freedom and liberty and rights and rule of Law.  And the dictatorships need to undermine that language in order to keep in power domestically...

And they have an interest in shaping the debate inside the liberal democracies in ways that benefit them.  And increasingly, they've concluded that what benefits them is the rise of illiberal, disruptive and radical parties, because when that happens, the Western world or the democratic world loses its sense of community and solidarity.  It loses its ability to make group decisions.  If we're divided by radical politics in different  countries, then we're not very good at standing up to them.  And they very much see this as a war, as a competition, as a conflict, even if we don't. 

And so now, they are betting that Trump will be the person who destroys the United States, whether he makes it ungovernable, whether he assaults the institutions, so that they no longer function, whether he creates so much division and chaos that the US can't have a foreign policy anymore.  That's what they want, and that's what they're hoping he will do.  And again, I don't want to the conspiratorial about how much power they have.  They don't run US elections, but they will try to influence the outcome however they can, because they think he will weaken the country ultimately.  And, by the way, from what we know, the Chinese are only just beginning to experiment in this world.  From what we know, the Chinese agree.  So, he's the candidate of the authoritarian world, not because he'll make America stronger, but ultimately because they think he'll make America weaker.

May you live in interesting times - has long been claimed to be a Chinese curse.  Who knows for sure?  What we know for sure is the world is a dangerous place and Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are seriously bad actors.  An unholy alliance.

*Content courtesy of The Bulwark

Following Orders

Donald Trump has said that during his presidency he was dissuaded from using the military to quell violence in Democratic-controlled cities and states.  This was a source of frustration to him.

And while he has been coy about how he might use the military during a second term, Trump's surrogates have suggested his administration would have wide latitude to deploy the military within the country's borders.

I'm not suggesting that heavy armor will be rolling down main streets across America; but it is a fair question to ask how the military will be used domestically in a second Trump administration. 

The Posse Comitatus Act generally prohibits the use of the military for domestic law enforcement; nevertheless, Trump's musings have given rise to concerns over a possible invocation of the 1792 Insurrection Act.  What are the implications for executive power, administration appointees and military oaths?

While it is true that a president can give illegal orders; he cannot execute them unilaterally.  Donald Trump has learned from his first term that in a second term it is imperative he surround himself with individuals who are loyal - not to the constitution - but to him, personally.

Trump has accused former Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley of treason and deserving of execution.  There will not be a Mark Milley in a second Trump administration.  Instead there will be pliant sycophants which means the execution of sketchy orders will fall to the next line of senior military officers.

Ponder that.

Election Economics

It should come as no surprise that for many individuals and households their standard of living improved during the time Donald Trump was in the White House.  That's not to say that things ended badly with the COVID pandemic and recession at the close of his term of office; people tend to remember the positive and discount the negative.

It is textbook economics that massive stimulus spending and supply chain disruptions during both the Trump and Biden administrations are the causal contributors to the recent spike in inflation.   The impact of inflation materialized during Biden's occupation of the White House.  Consequently, many individuals associate inflation as something Biden is solely responsible-for.  Surprised?  Voters aren't economists. Economics is complicated stuff for anybody who drinks from the Face Book cesspool of lazy economic thought.  Excess liquidity and stimulus largess was the primary cause and interventionist action by the federal reserve is the prescribed cure.  Sure, I get the politics of gaslighting the inflation issue.  But I digress.

Under Biden many individuals and families have struggled with inflation.  And while conditions have improved this may not be enough for some voters.  For Biden that is a burdensome problem.

Trump has any manner of personal flaws, admires bad guys like Vladimir Putin, tried to steal an election, fomented a riot and continues to deny his 2020 election loss.  For Trump that is a burdensome problem.

For both Trump and Biden their administrations enjoyed the benefit of economic success and the challenges of economic headwinds.  Nothing new under the sun there.

There are voters that loathe Donald Trump and there are voters who loathe Joe Biden.  Voters frequently judge their presidents based upon their personal economic gains or losses coincident with a given administration.  Confirmation bias too.  Because I go out of my way to not allow politics to infect financial decisions I've prospered during the reign of both of these presidents.  Actually every president for as long as it mattered.

As a recovering financial guy it's easy for me to view the current economic condition with a rational eye.  What I see is an American economy that grew at a healthy clip in 2023.  Unemployment remained low, inflation continued to drop, job growth is holding steady, real wages (adjusted for inflation) exceed pre-COVID levels.  And exceeding forecasts, GDP growth climbed by 3.3 percent in the last quarter.  Speaking of forecasts, a year ago expectations were for a recession.  Today it is expected that while growth may slow in 2024; in the absence of an unexpected outside event (read: wider middle east war), no major downturn.  Consumer sentiment should continue to rebound.

If you want to throw your support to Biden because you believe you'll prosper knock yourself out.  If you're a Trump backer because you're convinced the current economy is a hell hole; hey, knock yourself out.  Know this:  election outcomes are more frequently determined by rational individuals found in the middle.  Namely independent and disaffected voters.

Just last month, polling by Gallup highlighted that more voters now identify as independent - forty-three percent - tying the previous high not seen since 2014.  Ponder the implications of this shift in light of the 2024 election.

The impact of a single president over something as huge and complicated as our economy is frequently overstated.

A platform of grievance and retribution doesn't cut it for me.

That's my nuance.

P.S. - At the time this is published the markets have also set record highs. Nevertheless, I acquired shares of BA at a significant discount recently.  An assembly mistake is not the same as a design defect.

Renewable Resource

Our group of five hunters killed nine whitetails last year.  We processed four for ourselves and donated the remaining five to the food pantry network here in Door County.  Venison burger is wholesome and popular fare with needful families. 

I'm certain my neighbors had successful hunts as well.

Anyway, it would appear that we didn't make much of dent in the local whitetail herd as there have been ample images of does, fawns and a few dandy bucks continuing to show on the trail camera trapline.

It is the gift that keeps on giving.....

 

Let The Games Begin

Apologies, in-advance, for the brain dump.

The primary games are upon us and the Iowa caucuses are in the rear view mirror.  My takeaway?  110,000+ voters participated in the 2024 state caucuses - the smallest turnout ever.  This represents less than 15% of the state's 752,000 registered Republican voters.

The 2016 turnout was 187,000 - about 70 percent higher.  It is reasonable to conclude that the nasty cold weather conditions resulted in some voters staying home.  Or is it possible something else is in play?  Enthusiasm maybe? 

Without a doubt, Donald Trump, with his power of incumbency and to my eyes at least, the most loyal and motivated base of supporters ever.  His name recognition is off the charts.  His trajectory is that of the inevitable.  Yet he earned only half the votes of only a small number of the most committed GOP voters - roughly eight percent.

Consider this.

There is a population of Republican, Republican-leaning, conservative and independent voters who are unlikely to vote for Trump in the general election.  Nearly half of Nikki Haley's Iowa supporters claim they'd vote for Biden over Trump.  That is not to suggest they like or support Biden's policies - it is the suggestive of the strength of the Never Trump movement in conservative circles.  Polling suggests that twenty-five percent of GOP caucus-goers won't vote for Trump in November.  

I'm not making trouble or picking a fight over any of this; yet some of this polling data has implications for the general election in November.  

A Trump - Biden match-up in November is presently in the margin of error and promises to be a close and fraught election.  A couple of octogenarians going head to head.

A Haley - Biden match-up in November presently has Biden trailing by ten points.  A younger, brighter, aspirational UN Ambassador mops the floor with Biden going head to head.

Sure, I understand polls can get it wrong.  Yet a party platform of retribution, grievance and pay-back is, in my opinion, thin soup.  If the GOP is desirous of taking back the White House, retaining control of the House or taking-back the Senate; or any combination of the foregoing, then something needs to happen to capture the enthusiasm of Republican, Republican-leaning, conservative and independent voters who continue to be indifferent to Trump.  This will be a challenge.

As a recovering financial guy here are a couple of closing thoughts and an admonition to not commit an unforced financial error in 2024. 

• During an election year first quarter volatility in the markets is common as we approach Super Tuesday.  Expect first half weakness. 
  

• Reelection years tend to be predictably solid for investors.  Since 1944 the market has been up almost every year an incumbent president has run for reelection.  Expect second half strength. 
  

• In the absence of a recession the incumbent president wins. 

• If there has been a recession in the prior two years leading up to the reelection campaign the incumbent loses.  
  

Past performance does not guarantee future results; nevertheless, historic patterns share some predictive qualities.  I remain rationally optimistic about the art and science of basic economics and history.

Ponder this:

Where does Nikki Haley go after New Hampshire?

Is the next real race the one for for Donald Trump's VP?

Embrace The Change

For many people managing change is a challenge.   I would be the first to admit to it. Nevertheless, there is no way on earth to dodge the challenge.  It is inevitable.  We are living at a point in time and space where change is evolving exponentially. 

Take for instance the impact of new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI). Imagine the impact that AI will have on businesses such as healthcare, financial services, accounting, education and law.  Media and propaganda. Security.  And politics.

My world has been warming for about 10,000 years. That covers roughly 400 generations, give or take. Did the patriarch or matriarch of each generation give thought to the impact of climate change on their world?  We’re here because someone since our Neolithic prehistory did. 

Over millennia pandemics have ebbed and flowed. If you are reading this you are here as a consequence of somebody in your historical genome managing the changes wrought by plagues and epidemics.

Which takes us to this.  In only a handful of generations medicine has advanced by means of understanding germ theory and the spread of deadly stuff like cholera. Which led to modern sanitation practices and clean water. The birth of vaccines and antibiotics led to a reduction of infections and improved public health and life expectancy.  

Antiseptic practices, blood transfusions and anesthesia improved surgical outcomes. There were x-rays, clinical trials and much more.  In just my lifetime there was the pill, joint replacements, advances in cardiac medicine and organ transplants. 

In only a couple of generations there was modern refrigeration, changes in transportation, communication, agriculture and energy efficiencies.  Canned food and white sliced bread. Even warfare. 

Change. 

If we have any hope of survival, much less flourishing, we need to suck it up and embrace it. 

If you want to grouse and gripe about incandescent light bulbs going the way of the buggy whip and bitch about electric vehicles on social media, or deny the efficacy of vaccines, I have to wonder if you’ll survive hydrogen as an energy source.  Oh, the humanity!

We need to transform our relationship with change by actively participating in it and knowing that we can shape change as much as it can shape us.

 

Palace Intrigue

It was only a few short months ago when a puzzling mutiny led by Wagner mercenary group strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin rattled Vladimir Putin and the Russian military.

This blogger has been wondering ever since why Putin, who accused Prigozhin of treason, allowed him to live.  Ordinarily, Vlad's enemies suffer radioactive polonium poisoning or strangely fall to their deaths from eighth floor windows.  Maybe Putin was waiting for the perfect opportunity?

Telegram/WAGNER_svodki

And Prigozhin's private aircraft fell from the sky last Wednesday.  Let's be clear, I've watched enough aircraft disaster episodes on the Smithsonian Channel to know that burning aircraft do not ordinarily drop from the sky. 

We don't know for sure if a bomb planted on board caused the aircraft to explode or if it was destroyed by antiaircraft fire.  Has anybody said for sure that the mercenary chief's remains have been recovered?  It has been reported that seven passengers and three crew members perished in the crash less than 200 miles north of Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Perskov would tell you any involvement by Putin is: an absolute lie.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko obliquely suggested:  I cannot imagine that Putin did it; that Putin is to blame.

Nothing like a healthy dose of Kremlin intrigue.  I've got some acquaintances who insist nothing coming out of Russia should be taken as factual or the truth.  Russia and its leaders have historically had an uncomfortable relationship with purges, coups, disappearances and assassinations.  And I suppose that amongst the elite gangster class of Russian oligarchs anyone who previously thought they might voice criticism of Putin is going to clam-up with the knowledge that any challenge to his authority is going to lead to a death sentence.  

Of course there's likely more than a handful off pissed-off Wagner people out there.  I wonder what's to come of this hired gun empire?

The Kremlin's war against Ukraine will likely persist and whispers about Putin's management of the conflict will persist as well.  One has to wonder if any of this is a morale boost for the conscript army being squandered on Putin's unprovoked invasion.  What a waste.

The bottom line is the public assassination of Prigozhin highlights the decades-long descent of Russia into a mafia state.  A vast criminal enterprise barely held together with barbarousness and completely incapable of global leadership.  A failed state.

The people over at the Wall Street Journal have had, what I consider, the best coverage of this unfolding event.  They published a terrific piece on the Wagner Chieftain's last days.  Check it out; it's a good read.

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia.  it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key.  That key is Russian national interest.

-Winston Churchill 

Edit to add - Sunday morning (08.27.23), in a statement published on the Telegram messaging service, Russia's Investigative Committee said the identities of all of the aircraft's passengers had been confirmed with "molecular-genetic examinations."

Wagner sympathizers had held out hope that the mercenary leader was somehow still alive and that his death was faked.

The state apparatus reports he's dead.  And, of course, Russian state media is unimpeachable.

What's In The Air?

Sniff.  Sniff.

Do you smell what I smell?

It's not smoke from Canadian wildfires.

Nope.  It's cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias...

Prognosticating

If current polling is to be believed it's looking more and more like the former President has the GOP primary locked-down for a win.

Polling early last week from the New York Times and Siena College informs us that:

Trump leads DeSantis 54 to 17 with nobody else above 3 percent.

Among self-identified Trump supporters, 52 percent consider Trump to be the only choice.

Among those considering other candidates more than a third are still considering Trump.

In a head-to-head match-up Trump leads DeSantis 62-31.

In a head-to-head match-up Biden and Trump are tied at 43 percent.  

Of course, 43 plus 43 does not add-up to 100 percent.  So the question is:  does the 14 percent difference stay home?  I think not.

Consider this:  the 14% is the None of the Above voting block.  And in the end they're likely to hold their nose and vote for one or the other.  One of the most notable characteristics of this block of registered voters is while they are unenthusiastic about Biden they are less happy with Trump

It's still a long way to November of 2024 and the polling will change along the way.  

And can get it wrong.

Palace Intrigue

One of the side benefits of retirement is the amount of time that you have to devote to other interests.  Volunteering, education, cooking and baking, community service, reading and your thoughts.  

The thing about thinking and thoughts is that you get to speculate.  I'm not talking about speculating in the investment world of stocks and bonds or commodities.  I'm smart enough to avoid that like a case of the clap.  I am referring to speculation as it applies to conjecture on a subject without firm evidence.  There are times I like to indulge in speculation on political, social, geopolitical and related subject matter - local and otherwise.  The good news is that it earned me the role of being a class coordinator for a current affairs class at the community college - a good thing.  It also earned me the label of Armchair General as it relates to my musings on Russia.  I don't believe it was intended as a pejorative; likely more out of frustration over my standing firm on hostile actors and performative politicians.  

No big deal on my end as I get called plenty of names for standing firm.  Besides, I am also an armchair gardener, armchair class coordinator, armchair pizza maker, armchair astronomer and so on.  Last month I got a bartender license; add that to the list.  Jack of many trades and master of none.  You get the drift.  But I digress.

A week has passed since Wagner Group strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin ended his march on Moscow thusly avoiding large-scale Russian on Russian bloodshed. In and of itself this was both disorienting and alarming.  And after the passage of seven days I am unconvinced that any layperson has absolutely definitive knowledge about the causes for how events played-out.  Although there is plenty of speculation. 

For the record I haven't any inside information.   Although it appears that Russian leadership has, temporarily at least, descended into the national equivalent of a dumpster fire. 

Some observations and and idle speculation. 

Was what transpired an elaborately staged deep fake?  Was Prigozhin out to topple Vladimir Putin?  I don't think so. 

Was Prigozhin trying to save his business enterprise (his sweat equity in Wagner) from being subsumed into Russian command?  And save his own scalp?  These have possibilities.

Did he have co-conspirators in the Kremlin or Russian military?  Will Wagner fighters follow their boss to Belarus?  Will they return to carry the fight to Ukraine?  Has Prigozhin triggered a Kremlin purge?  Is this the end of Prigozhin or the beginning?  All of this is anybody's guess.

What I think is that Prigozhin's folk hero send-off as he prepared to depart Rostov for life in Belarusian exile was a bad look for Putin.  The normally reclusive Putin spent considerable time last week posing for staged selfies.  It is impossible to know if events have left Putin weakened, strengthened or vindictive.  Prigozhin has suggested that Putin's reasons for invading Ukraine were based on lies fed to him by the Kremlin's top brass; a fraud.  Has this struck a chord with ordinary Russians? 

A falling out amongst gangsters comes with all manner of loyalty complications; including, but not limited to, poisoning by means of polonium and falling from a sixth floor window.  Gangsters typically feel compelled to reassert their primacy.

Either way you slice it Putin clearly does not have a succession plan in place and the notion of Russia (with all of its nukes) descending into civil war is unnerving.  The dimmest of armchair generals understands this.  It would probably be a good idea to give the Russians sufficient space to sort this out on their own.

Of course there's a candidate for POTUS who claims he can fix all of this in 24 hours.  If any of you readers know what the recipe is for the Secret Sauce I'm all ears.  Otherwise it's just more speculation.

In closing there is this.  This last week Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. hosted former U.N. arms inspector and convicted child sex predator, Scott Ritter on his podcast to rhapsodize over CIA conspiracy theories and defend Russian president Vladimir Putin as a man who will go down in history as one of the greatest leaders of all time.

Seriously, you can’t possibly make this stuff up....

 

Sunday Morning Migration

Last weekend Sid and Braumeister and I had an opportunity to chat it up about the immigration, asylum and migration conundrum we face.  (I deliberately list these as three separate issues because they as similar but not one and the same.)  Looking at this chart the operative questions that come to mind:

• Are the increased apprehensions under Biden evidence of progress?

• Are the smaller number of apprehensions under Trump lack of progress?  Or the inverse?
  

• Apprehensions + detention = deportation?  Or catch and release?

• Are our borders open, closed or porous?  

• Is it deliberate or a broken system?
  

There's a lot of data here to unpack in this chart.  

Here's a stab.

It is obvious that the number of apprehensions at the border is evidence of a surge.  Immigration activists oftentimes emphasize the events in other countries (gang crime, political oppression, war) as having an outside influence on migration.  

Think:  PUSH.

Factors such as the strength of our economy also play a role.  We enjoy a plethora of job opportunities.  Door, Kewaunee, Brown and Outagamie Counties are relevant examples of this. 

Think:  PULL

Nevertheless, when we make it difficult for people to enter the country fewer individuals make an attempt.  Donald Trump was out-front in his opposition to immigrants and immigration.  A likely cause of a smaller number of apprehensions under his watch.  Joe Biden did not manifest that level of hostility and that might explain a surge in apprehensions under his watch.

Think:  SIGNALING

Border policy is complicated stuff.  More so because I believe that both parties use it as a device to keep their respective base constituents in a near-constant state of agitation and turgid arousal.  As a consequence the nuance and complexities of the subject matter get lost in the tumult of emotional misinformation

Democrats seem to avoid the difficult questions.  And a lax (or seemingly welcoming) immigration attitude/policy brings with it all manner of problems. Including, but not limited to:  dangerous and life-threatening travel, exploitation by smugglers all resulting in the overwhelming of social services and shelters creating dangerous conditions on both sides of the Mexican/American border. 

Simultaneously, immigrants and their families have ascended the economic ladder and thrived in the US.  In their book Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success by economists Abramitsky (Stanford) and Boustan (Princeton) have defused much of the fearmongering. 

The bottom line is no country in its right mind should have open borders.  Nevertheless, refugees with a legitimate asylum claim should have a resolution in less than an eight to fourteen year wait time  Those who wish to come to this country for a job should have a legal opportunity to do so.  Dreamers, born here of undocumented immigrants are already birthright citizens.  (Yes, it is in the Constitution).  They should have a legal path to permanence.

According to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests and deportation of undocumented immigrants increased in the second year of the Biden administration. Although numbers remained below Trump and Obama averages this crackdown has had its intended effect with apprehensions dropping.  Alas, Title 42, with its pandemic restrictions, expired last Thursday and appears to have had the unintended effect of migrants interpreting this as an opportunity.  Joe Biden has sent additional troops to the border for purposes of logistical support.  Nevertheless, he's facing some humongous challenges with the migration influx and surge of border crossings.

It's a shit show for sure.

Like I said, this is hard stuff and requires commitment to solutions and successful outcomes from serious leaders on both sides of the aisle.  

I do not believe there is sufficient critical mass to roll that boulder up hill.  Yet.  All of which explains the current fixation over bullshit subjects like  gender dysphoria, election denial and wokeness over Bud Light.

Sheesh.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary

― H.L. Mencken

Sunday Morning Reflections

Just this last week I read something on the web by Rich Lowry, Editor in Chief of the National Review.  He posited that if I desired a candidate for 2024 who wouldn't touch entitlements or start a foreign war Donald Trump was my guy.  Lowry's claim is that Trump is a genuine moderate.  

Interesting couple of insights Mr. Lowry.  My expectation would have been something more cerebral but this is worth unpacking.

First-off, the 800 pound gorilla in everyone's room is social security, Medicare and Medicaid.  I've touched on this subject before.  This year the combined cost of these programs (oftentimes referred to as entitlements) will exceed more than half of the entire federal budget. Ironically, it is at the heart of the debt ceiling drama and source of no small amount of budget heartburn.  Neither party will outwardly acknowledge this and no amount of clawing-back unspent COVID relief funds, shrinking the IRS or Medicaid work requirements is going to fix any of this.  

 

Face the music folks, something needs to change as the funding dynamics of these entitlements are totally messed-up.  Baby boomers are retiring in numbers not seen before.  Program beneficiaries are living longer than ever before.  The birthrate in this country is barely at a replacement rate.  Something needs to happen to extend the solvency of these three programs.  A grand bargain like Reagan and O'Neill struck in 1983 where both parties agreed to benefit and revenue changes that extended program solvency for decades. Trump is hardly Reaganesque and regrettably some of his most-popularized promises remain unfulfilled.  Border security, immigration reform and Obamacare come to mind.  Big Fat Nothing Burgers.  Ignoring this impending entitlement funding crisis is willful blindness.  It is hardly moderation.

As for starting a foreign war, I presume Lowry is making passing reference to the Russian invasion in Eastern Europe.  The last time I looked Joe Biden isn't waging war in Ukraine.  That is what Vladimir Putin is doing. I'm all for a legitimate and necessary debate about the degree, nature, costs and long-term usefulness of our aid to the people of Ukraine to defend against a senseless war they did not provoke. 

Nevertheless, I remain mindful of what former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had to say on the matter:  Give Kyiv what it needs to win, or it will cost the United States more in the long run. I am not naive.  That is a totally thoughtful and moderate observation.  Something you'd expect from the guy who graduated first in his class at West Point.

Conservatism is not to be confused with Trumpism.  A movement driven by absolute loyalty to a personality and embrace of the lie that the election was stolen in 2020 is not interchangeable.  I have never worshiped a living person or embraced conspiracy over truth.  Abandonment of aspiration for reprisal, compassion for anger and optimism for resentment.  Settling scores and exacting retribution in lieu of governing is not my style. It is immoderate.

 

Asking me to view and respond to my world with a mindset of offense and persecution and to fabricate an alternate truth when there is no evidence of legitimate grievance. To twist myself into knots to embrace this is a bridge too far. It's not how I was raised, it's not how I evolved and it's not in my wheelhouse. It is not moderate.

 

Leaders in the image of Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu and and Asa Hutchinson are so normal as to be summarily dismissed out of hand by a party co-opted by extremes and the theater of the absurd. It isn't aspirational like Nikki Haley.  It's lame.

 

A campaign platform of fear, preoccupation with gender dysphoria, Bud Light beer and election denial isn't making the cut for this guy.  Upon further reflection; conservative, independent and center-right voters aren't buying the anti-woke stuff.

 

We're not falling for any of it.  

 

And who drinks Bud Light beer anyway?  It's piss.

Retribution

At CPAC last weekend Donald Trump issued a ginormous smack down of establishment Republicans and neocons that could teach professional wrestling a thing or two.

With you on my side, we will demolish the deep state.  We will expel the warmongers.  We will drive out the globalists, we will cast out the communists.  We will throw off the political class that hates our country.  

When we started this journey, a journey there has never been before, we had a Republican Party that was ruled by freaks, neocons, globalists, open borders zealots and fools.  But we are never going back to the party of Paul Ryan, Karl Rove and Jeb Bush.

Donald Trump promised that with him in the White House the Republican Party will never go back to a party that wants to give unlimited money to fight endless wars while seeking to cut social security and veterans benefits.

Well, there you have it.  A return to past grievances, a promise to deliver a welcome embrace of the 800 pound gorilla along with a hefty dose of retribution on top.

There's the party platform in a nutshell. 

Composite / Photos: GettyImages

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There is a population of conservatives, Republicans, center-right individuals and independent-minded voters who place a high value on facts and the truth. Marginalized because they refuse to embrace baseless conspiracy theories or demonstrate sufficient fealty and obeisance to the former guy - exile is their cross to bear.

Hopefully The Final Balloon Update

Last week Old Uncle Joe spoke to a nation weary of balloon drama about the necessity to develop sharper rules to identify and, if necessary, shoot down unidentified aerial objects.  All of this a consequence of weeks of breathtaking drama associated with the transit of a Red Chinese spy balloon that crossed the airspace of the United States and Canada.

As I have said before, I take seriously the encroachment of anything suspicious in our nation's airspace.  This includes civilian private and commercial aircraft, military aircraft and balloons;  anything without a previously-filed flight plan.   Satellites are a completely different matter.  On this matter there is nothing funny about China's criminal conduct and willful disregard for our laws.

It should be obvious to anyone paying attention that roughly half the population dislikes Old Uncle Joe.  That is OK.  Everyone is entitled to an opinion.  It is a foregone conclusion that this population will complain if a balloon isn't shot from the sky immediately.  Considering the Red Chinese balloon was more than 200 feet tall and carrying a payload the size of three school buses if blown to bits it might result in a very sizeable debris field.  Suppose you shoot out of the sky something of this size?  Suppose all of that mass broke-up at an altitude of 50,000 feet, scattered and fell from the sky, damaged property, injured some children or killed someone?  Do you think these same people might howl even louder? 

Seems to me Old Joe is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.  But that's his problem, not mine. 

I'm actually slightly tickled to have witnessed some people contort themselves into knots over the course of events because as days passed we eventually learned that by the time the spy balloon had crossed into American airspace late last month our military and intelligence services had been tracking it for nearly a week already; watching as it lifted-off from its home base in Hainan Island near China's south coast.

Expecting it to surveil our extensive military installation on Guam an unexpected jet stream carried it far off course to the north where a cold Canadian weather front pushed it back south and then eastward penetrating the American heartland.  Chinese ineptness following a bad turn of events?  What, no self-destruct mechanism?  Or a Chinese attempt to exploit a bad turn of events?  Its sloppy carelessness either way.

So yeah, I'm kinda pissed about this.  Floating thru our airspace is at a minimum an affront to national pride.  At worse an act of aggression.  Nevertheless, if I had to hazard a guess the PLA was caught flat-footed by this untoward turn of developments; so much so they wouldn't even pick-up the phone to answer our calls to ask- WASSUP?

Their playbook was reminiscent of a Mad Magazine Spy vs. Spy cartoon strip.  Did the PLA do and end run around President Xi?  Or fall on their sword for President Xi?  Meanwhile, if you paid attention to the rhetoric last week at the Munich Security Conference, China's senior foreign policy advisor Wang Yi  was indignant and laid blame for all of this at the feet of U.S. indiscriminate use of force. He demanded an apology.  In Asian cultures Face counts for much more than in western culture.

So, in my view, I thought it prudent to follow the advice of the military and intelligence services to track it, jam its transmissions, study it, photograph it, record its telemetry, shoot it down in shallow territorial waters, recover as much wreckage as possible, move the debris to the FBI lab at Langley to study it further and reverse engineer as much as can be done.  Maybe even rub their nose in it.

Big loss of face to be punked on those terms.  Plausible?

You may disbelieve all of the foregoing or disagree with it.  That's perfectly OK.  Inasmuch as anyone reading this (including yours-truly) isn't privy to secure briefings in a SCIF we all are entitled to an opinion.  Nevertheless, and because I try to keep an open mind, if your narrative of the spy balloon drama includes our military lying to us, all of the combined intelligence services deceiving us, the Biden Crime Syndicate accepting billions of dollars of Chinese bribes, Hunter's laptop, and the Canadians implicated in the entirety of it than by all means please share.  If you have evidence of a cover-up or conspiracy you have an obligation and absolute duty to reveal it.  Post it in the comments section.  The congressional inquiries, indictments, impeachments, arrests and firing squads will follow.  

Which is more plausible; the latter or the former?

One more thing; I believe that splashing some hobbyist's or a university's or other legitimate entity's non-nefarious and totally legit balloon with an air-to-air Sidewinder missile at $400,000 a pop is just a wee bit over the top.  So we'll just have to see how this is parsed in the real world.

In closing, and to remain grounded in some rational perspective on the whole affair, consider this:  People routinely allow Face Book, TikTok (Red Chinese spyware), Pinterest, Alexa and similar platforms to spy on their lives willingly and all the damn day long.  Is a Chinese spy balloon a larger threat than Google Earth?  Want to see a missile silo from above?  Open source photos are readily available on the web.  (The silo doors are always closed BTW and everyone knows their locations).  Listen-up people, everyone's satellites have already photographed everyone else's secret stuff by high resolution means already.

It occurred to me the other day that the commotion over Red China's balloon is reminiscent of the hysteria that followed the launch of Sputnik by the Soviets when I was a little kid.  Or a scary cold war era episode from The Twilight Zone.

For the love of God and all that is holy I sure hope I don't have to publish anything further on the subject of balloons.

Speaking of balloons - these are one more of many useful tools that the US Weather Service uses to forecast their guesses.....

Balloon Update

Has the Chinese spy balloon become a punchline or does it remain a threat?  The humiliation of Red China getting caught red-handed (pun intended) and having to continue denying it with lame evasive explanations really has diluted its propaganda and/or surveillance value.  

When the F-22 Raptor weapons system was conceived its creators likely could not have perceived it's initial prey being a balloon and several other "objects".  Who would have predicted that this state of the art military technology would be engaging with UFOs?  At the time of publication the current record is F-22 Raptor 3 and balloon/objects 0. Yesterday, and a little too close to home, an F-16 splashed a UFO over Lake Huron in Michigan using a Sidewinder air-to-air missile.  One has to wonder if Old Joe Biden won't have to emerge before too long and reassure us that our forces aren't doing battle with extraterrestrials. 

I'm not sure to whom this balloon belongs.  Discuss it amongst yourselves.....

 

Sunday Morning Economics - An Update And A Prediction

The over-expansive monetary policy and flooding of the economy with liquidity in 2020 under the Former Guy and continuing with the largess under the rule of the Current Guy it should come as no surprise the surge in inflation that we have been witness-too.

There is a combination of good and bad news with regard to the United States' near economic future.  Which would you like first?  Good news or bad news?  Good news you say?  I agree - eat dessert first.

The good news is that the Fed would appear to be putting the brakes on inflation.  Not a full stop - rather a slowing of growth and a retreat in a handful of sectors.  The bad news is that there is a very real possibility that this will come at the cost of a recession.  Is this an absolute certainty?  Nope.  But it is a probability.  Compounding this is the specter of a fight over the debt ceiling. 

In 2022 the Fed spurred interest rates four times in increments of 75 basis points.  And they did it again at the beginning of this month - which is kinda a big deal inasmuch as this old man hasn't seen that since the early 1980s.

Coincidentally, the Fed reduced market liquidity at the breathtaking pace of $95 billion a month by choosing NOT to rollover its portfolio of maturing Treasury securities.  The swing from loosey-goosey Covid policy to the belt-tightening of the last year is quite unprecedented.

A handful of forward-looking economic indicators suggest that housing costs (accounting for 40% of the CPI) are now falling.  No surprise there - mortgage rates today are double what they were at their historic lows in 2022.  Additionally, wage inflation has softened to 4.5% and the Purchasing Managers Indices imply the economy is at the possible threshold of a recession.

The country is reporting blow-out job growth with unemployment at its lowest level since 1969.  If you want a job in America you can probably get one.

Conclusion:  the tea leaves are mixed.  Under ordinary circumstances a recession might be mild or avoided altogether in the form of a soft landing.  Unfortunately, the circumstances are neither ordinary nor fortuitous.  The nihilists (a minority of Kevin McCarthy's caucus) still seem bent-upon blowing shit up and burning it to the ground.  This is hardly good faith bargaining or governing by means of responsible forward-looking budgeting. 

Sigh.

The last time this happened in 2011, vulnerable financial markets were rattled by the mere prospect that our government would default on its obligations which led to a downgrading of Treasury Bonds by the ratings agencies as it became clearer that we might not be a reliable borrower.

Do I think there will be a default?  

First-off, this blogger had to turn-in his crystal ball when he retired from the day job.  But my reading of the tea leaves suggests that there will be an agreement at the last minute of the last hour.  There will be an abundance of drama - followed by an agreement.  It will likely take the form of caps on discretionary spending, the formation of a commission or committee that will propose entitlement reforms along with rules for any proposals to come to the floor for a vote. 

Or I could also be full of it.  Or just pulling your leg for fun.

You're probably scratching your head and wondering.  To which my answer would be this:

McCarthy's caucus is singularly focused on one thing and one thing only: 

Restoring the Former Guy to the White House 

I think they understand that if they reach for another bridge too far a default would instantaneously result in a collapse of the global currency markets, throw the US economy into a deep recession, further cascading into a shit show of economic nonsense.  As their nest eggs evaporate retirees would revolt at the ballot box, Trump would be thumped in 2024, McCarthy would lose the house, the Dems would increase their hold on the Senate and Old Uncle Joe would have to don his crazy aviation glasses to avoid the glare of victory.  

Or maybe they don't understand this.

If it were me, I wouldn't want to die on that hill.  But nobody listens to me anyway.

Bottom line is Kevin is talking.  Biden is talking.  Which is good. There will be an agreement and I don't think the debt ceiling will be breached. Some forward-looking budget restraint would be a good thing.  Nevertheless, there will be theatrics.  Strap-on your harness and buckle-up.  As the days lengthen, spring is going to be awash in drama.

Stay-tuned......