Prognosticating

If current polling is to be believed it's looking more and more like the former President has the GOP primary locked-down for a win.

Polling early last week from the New York Times and Siena College informs us that:

Trump leads DeSantis 54 to 17 with nobody else above 3 percent.

Among self-identified Trump supporters, 52 percent consider Trump to be the only choice.

Among those considering other candidates more than a third are still considering Trump.

In a head-to-head match-up Trump leads DeSantis 62-31.

In a head-to-head match-up Biden and Trump are tied at 43 percent.  

Of course, 43 plus 43 does not add-up to 100 percent.  So the question is:  does the 14 percent difference stay home?  I think not.

Consider this:  the 14% is the None of the Above voting block.  And in the end they're likely to hold their nose and vote for one or the other.  One of the most notable characteristics of this block of registered voters is while they are unenthusiastic about Biden they are less happy with Trump

It's still a long way to November of 2024 and the polling will change along the way.  

And can get it wrong.