Palace Intrigue

It was only a few short months ago when a puzzling mutiny led by Wagner mercenary group strongman Yevgeny Prigozhin rattled Vladimir Putin and the Russian military.

This blogger has been wondering ever since why Putin, who accused Prigozhin of treason, allowed him to live.  Ordinarily, Vlad's enemies suffer radioactive polonium poisoning or strangely fall to their deaths from eighth floor windows.  Maybe Putin was waiting for the perfect opportunity?

Telegram/WAGNER_svodki

And Prigozhin's private aircraft fell from the sky last Wednesday.  Let's be clear, I've watched enough aircraft disaster episodes on the Smithsonian Channel to know that burning aircraft do not ordinarily drop from the sky. 

We don't know for sure if a bomb planted on board caused the aircraft to explode or if it was destroyed by antiaircraft fire.  Has anybody said for sure that the mercenary chief's remains have been recovered?  It has been reported that seven passengers and three crew members perished in the crash less than 200 miles north of Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Perskov would tell you any involvement by Putin is: an absolute lie.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko obliquely suggested:  I cannot imagine that Putin did it; that Putin is to blame.

Nothing like a healthy dose of Kremlin intrigue.  I've got some acquaintances who insist nothing coming out of Russia should be taken as factual or the truth.  Russia and its leaders have historically had an uncomfortable relationship with purges, coups, disappearances and assassinations.  And I suppose that amongst the elite gangster class of Russian oligarchs anyone who previously thought they might voice criticism of Putin is going to clam-up with the knowledge that any challenge to his authority is going to lead to a death sentence.  

Of course there's likely more than a handful off pissed-off Wagner people out there.  I wonder what's to come of this hired gun empire?

The Kremlin's war against Ukraine will likely persist and whispers about Putin's management of the conflict will persist as well.  One has to wonder if any of this is a morale boost for the conscript army being squandered on Putin's unprovoked invasion.  What a waste.

The bottom line is the public assassination of Prigozhin highlights the decades-long descent of Russia into a mafia state.  A vast criminal enterprise barely held together with barbarousness and completely incapable of global leadership.  A failed state.

The people over at the Wall Street Journal have had, what I consider, the best coverage of this unfolding event.  They published a terrific piece on the Wagner Chieftain's last days.  Check it out; it's a good read.

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia.  it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key.  That key is Russian national interest.

-Winston Churchill 

Edit to add - Sunday morning (08.27.23), in a statement published on the Telegram messaging service, Russia's Investigative Committee said the identities of all of the aircraft's passengers had been confirmed with "molecular-genetic examinations."

Wagner sympathizers had held out hope that the mercenary leader was somehow still alive and that his death was faked.

The state apparatus reports he's dead.  And, of course, Russian state media is unimpeachable.