Beginning Friday evening and extending into all day yesterday what appeared to be a fast-moving mutiny in Russia unfolded and was resolved in a matter of hours.
Was Wagner Group strongman Yevgeniy Prigozhin fomenting an insurrection or a putsch?
The march on Moscow came to an abrupt halt with what appeared to be a deal brokered by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Prigozhin will live in exile in lovely Belarus, Wagner Group mercenaries will alternately be disbanded or absorbed into the Russian command structure.
What does this mean for Vladimir Putin? What does this mean for Prigozhin? Does this development have meaningful consequences for Ukraine? Does Russian instability impact their unprovoked invasion of a neighbor? What red lines have been crossed? What are the implications for gangster loyalty? What next?
Or was this a non-coup? A deep fake choreographed by Putin and Prigozhin? A retreat from defeat in Ukraine disguised as a coup. Or an excuse to consolidate Wagner into the regular Russian army?
Speculation and conspiracy theories are cheap.
Churchill said it best -
I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. it is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.
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