Trade Policy Trump Style

 

Just about the time you thought we had this wrapped-up, last Friday trade talks with Canada collapsed.

This is fascinating to me inasmuch as just like the decision to go to war with Iran; this administration leaves each and every last decision on all matters of trade and war, including right down to each and every last country, including terms, to the whims of one sole individual. 

Mr. Trump.

And just like Groundhog Day, every day can be a repeat of the prior or maybe something different; all dependent-upon Trump's mercurial personality, his feelings of self-aggrandizement in the moment and generalized impulsiveness.  Some days are predictable, most are tolerable; while the worst ones are like dealing with a whining toddler tossing toys out of his crib.

Mr. Trump's obsessive trade war with Canada is based-upon an imbalance of trade with the United States that is driven entirely by globally-needed oil. They don't like to talk about; but I'll make it simple enough for a layperson to understand.

An interesting factoid is that the US merchandise trade deficit with Canada is essentially an energy story.  In 2024 the US ran a $64 billion goods deficit with Canada, but that deficit disappeared and became a $34 billion US surplus when energy was excluded.  The US also ran a roughly $24 billion surplus specifically in manufactured goods.  Canadian energy exports, namely crude oil, account for the bilateral deficit.

In other words, Canada isn't beating American manufacturers in some broad-based flood of manufactured goods.  Canada supplies the United States with enormous quantities of energy that the US economy needs, while the United States sells Canada more manufactured goods than it buys from Canada.    

That doesn't mean every Trump tariff policy toward Canada is necessarily motivated by the headline trade deficit; Washington has cited border security, fentanyl, autos, steel and other issues.  

In 2025, the United States ran a $46 billion goods deficit with Canada, but it also ran an approximately $85 billion net deficit in energy trade. The implication is that the United States' overall goods deficit with Canada was not the result of a generalized Canadian advantage in manufactured goods; again it was overwhelmingly an energy phenomenon, offset by U.S. surpluses in other categories.

Nevertheless, if the argument is that America is being economically victimized by a one-sided Canadian trading relationship, the numbers don't stack-up.      

This time, and perhaps because the world needs North American oil; and possibly as a consequence of Mr. Trump's ill-advised unilateral war, it looks like Canada has its sights on our looming midterm elections and is digging-in for a protracted standoff with Trump.  I suspect with hopes for a change of venue in their on-again, off-again trade talks with the administration.   Other countries around the world are watching too; following how tit-for-tat retaliation works with Trump's personal negotiation style.  My sense is that Canada is willing to wait this out as post-election the ground may shift enough giving Democrats the upper hand in the House and providing some breathing room and space for normally trade-minded Republicans to find their balls.  Perhaps the Senate is in play too?  Who knows?  Time will tell.

Canada's retaliatory tariffs won't go into effect until after Labor Day and are likely to focus on things like appliances, agricultural equipment, minerals, steel, dairy, pulp and paper.  If Mark Carney were to take a page out of Ontario Premier Doug Ford's playbook, Canada will focus on taking a shot at Trump's base in both key swing states with significant trade ties to Canada (Michigan and other Midwest and Great Lakes states come to mind) along with critical red states such as Texas and Florida.  I can sense Canada's growing outrage and frustration.  After-all, Mr. Trump commenced his second term with demands that Canada become the 51st state.  

Brilliant.  

If Canada's first impression was that Trump is simply a garden variety asshole; I suppose given everything that has transpired since, he's gonna always be an asshole.   

Remember the guy who claimed that the tiny island nation of Madagascar was picking on us?  Yup, Howard Lutnick.  Whispered Palace Intrigue would suggest that the recent deal fell apart when Mr. Lutnick got bent out of shape over his impression that US Trade Representative Jamison Greer's dealmaking strayed onto Lutnick's turf; namely automobiles, steel and aluminum.  Imagine that; infighting among administration supplicants and sycophants.  In the mean time, the relationship with our single largest trade partner on the planet suffers and US consumers pay the price.

I cannot predict where this ends as I no longer have my crystal ball.  That said, and because we're only a couple of months from the mid-terms, I'll go out on a limb and predict Canada imposes more pain on American consumers who are already restless and grumpy about Mr. Trump's sloppy war and haphazard trade policy.  Between now and the election there will be an abundance of overblown reality television drama-style nonsense before we learn how this ends.

Meanwhile, as far as negotiation tactics go, Trump’s tariff threat hurts US automakers and consumers more than anyone else.  If anybody is under the impression that all Canadian auto and parts production will be re-shored in the US in the next four months; they are certifiably delusional.  That is a MAGA fever dream.

In closing there is this.  Further evidence that import taxes (tariffs) are ultimately paid by consumers; Mr. Trump is ostensibly and temporarily lifting them on imported beef.  And if you think temporary antics like this are a substitute for intellectually-solid trade dynamics or that the price of a Whopper is going to go down I have a bridge to sell you.

Such is the result of leaving decision-making on trade entirely in the hands of an impulsive and incurious individual.  Just like like a war in the Middle East that has gone south; you're gonna get sketchy results.... 

 

The Changing Face Of Warfare

The other day I was sitting in my armchair thinking about lessons being learned by the grinding and ever-evolving war between Ukraine and Russia and the more recent war between the U.S. and Iran.  Armchair general stuff was swirling-about in my civilian brain.  Mostly about the asymmetric nature of the conflicts as it pertains to large, global powers going-up against smaller powers and the cost-asymmetry observed in the use of costly exquisite weapons to defeat numerous unsophisticated and cheap weapons.

Just as armor, gunpowder, artillery, naval power, the machine gun, poison gas, communications, mechanization, aircraft and mutually assured destruction changed the face of warfare; we are witness to another.    

Only last month an advanced AH-64 Apache attack chopper was downed by a loitering Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).  A $30 million aircraft defeated by an unmanned drone that costs $20,000.  The pilots survived and were pulled from the waters the the Strait of Hormuz by an unmanned drone watercraft.  Lots of technology packaged in this single incident and a huge disparity in the price of weapon systems.  

China currently produces UAVs and similar loitering drones at a scale  that is stunning.  And if we found ourselves in a shooting war over Taiwan all we got is an ever-dwindling supply of Patriot missiles to shoot them down.  At $4 million a copy.

Shooting million-dollar missiles at twenty-thousand-dollar drones is unsustainable. 

Say hello to the new face of modern warfare. 

Ukraine has embraced drone warfare in earnest; including the deployment of autonomous UAVs capable of  delivering a warhead over vast distances; all the while stalling and reversing Russian advances into their territory at a terrifying cost in Russian and North Korean lives.

    

Assembling a single modern Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptor takes about a couple of years.  A solid rocket motor requires up to thirty months.  Setting-up a new assembly facility for Patriot missiles can presently take three to four years.

Ukraine assembles and delivers small FPV (First Person View) reconnaissance and kamikaze drones in a matter of hours to a couple of days.  Supply chain and procurement move an order from workshop to combat deployment in 24 to 48 hours.  Larger strategic strike UAVs and maritime drone boats requires only weeks.

Finally, there is the application of artificial intelligence to facilitate modern warfare. AI software processes real-time intelligence feeds to coordinate operations and advise targeting in single minutes and seconds.

Unmanned drones use onboard computer vision to lock-onto and strike targets independently; thereby defeating electronic jamming.  AI-enabled hardware permits inexpensive weapons systems to defeat high-value targets like tanks, missiles and ships.

Machine learning can sort thru overwhelming amounts of geospatial and signal intelligence that previously would require thousands of human analysts.  

Sadly, modern conflicts have become a test bed for rapid evolution in warfare and tactics as we've known it. 

Meanwhile, the administration has phased-out the Army's cutting edge drone warfare unit.   

And the U.S. is hesitant to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles locally, partially to protect U.S. military intellectual property, but more so because it doesn't want Ukraine to do it better.  

Shortsighted?  Or brilliant strategy?  Judging from how the war with Iran is playing-out only time will tell.  Watch the Peter Zeihan video short to the end.  Better yet read the comments.... 

Don't Pay Attention To That Man Behind The Curtain

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to calm the bond markets yesterday after a recent selloff made mortgages and other consumer loans more expensive.

Bessent's move to increase repurchases of long-term government notes and bonds (increasing demand for them) is largely symbolic but could still help bring those costs down.

Wall Street is skeptical the relief will stick, given that the Treasury Department's purchases are quite tiny compared with the roughly $30 trillion market for government debt.

The reason any of this matters is that the bond market impacts how much it costs everyone — the government, consumers, and companies — to borrow money.  The bond market is getting squeezed from multiple directions.  It sure looks like we’re in for a spell of rising interest rates.  

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s unilateral war in the Middle East and de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding inflation all the while destabilizing global security and the world’s economy.  So much winning.

Yet we have gilded statuary, a ballroom, an airborne Qatari palace, reflecting pool and a triumphal arch.

Squirrel!

What's The Tab On The War So Far?

The dollar figures are sketchy as the administration has left out the replacement cost of lost aircraft and the rebuilding of damaged bases; but here's a start.  Casualties on our side; 18 dead, 482 wounded and counting.  Deaths among the Gulf States, including Iran, and merchant seamen are estimated to number into the thousands.

 

Excluding aircraft and base losses the war in Iran has officially cost the United States $37.5 billion so far, according to recent testimony by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, intelligence officials and independent analysts  estimate the total cost exceeds $100 billion.  

 

Supporting the higher estimate consider that earlier this week Defense Secretary Hegseth and General Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appeared before the Senate appropriation Committee seeking $70 billion more to cover costs of the conflict and replenish depleted weapons stocks.

Sounds like the tip of an iceberg.  

 

Nevertheless, insofar as nobody can put the toothpaste back in the tube and hardly anybody wants to cut the troops off at the knees during wartime I think we're stuck with paying for a conflict of choice begun by one guy.  An impulsive choice, likely made against the advice of the Vice President, Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; but that's a discussion for another day.  

 

What do we have to show for our expenditure of lives and treasure?

 

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.  The Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb (Gateway of Tears) is now threatened by the Houthis.  U.S. bases throughout the Gulf States remain vulnerable to attack.  And oil is trading close to $100 a barrel.  Mr. Trump has set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.   

 

By all outward appearances this has all the elements of an open-ended cluster.  Some have suggested this could develop into another costly and grinding conflict that might persist into the next administration.  Iran is near certain to obtain a nuke.  This is Mr. Trump's Jimmy Carter moment - on steroids.  Time will tell how this plays-out.

 

And not a single MAGA supporter I'm acquainted-with will admit that their guy might have fallen under the thrall of Bibi Netanyahu.

Or just, plain and simply, miscalculated….

 

Why Are Gasoline Prices Still High?

While differences in gasoline prices across states are driven largely by transportation costs and taxes, changes in gasoline prices nationwide are primarily driven by crude oil prices.

Because crude oil is traded in a global market, swings in its price impact every state similarly.  From February to March the average U.S. gasoline price rose from $2.91 to $3.64 per gallon, with crude oil accounting for roughly 76% of the increase.

The retail cost (price at the pump) typically lags changes in crude oil because oil must first be transported (by ship and pipeline), refined, transported (again) and delivered to retailers, who price fuel based largely on wholesale replacement costs rather than the spot price of crude oil.

Consequently, although crude oil price have mostly returned to pre-war levels, gasoline prices remain elevated but slowly drifting lower.

If tensions in the Middle East continue to ease it is reasonable to expect the price at the pump to continue trending downward.

Buyer's Remorse?

If anyone had any doubts about the incompetence of President Trump and his administration the Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) with Iran proves it.  Russia and the United States misunderstood the inability of military might alone to crush small nations like Ukraine and Iran.  Britain's King George learned that lesson 250 years ago; yet that historic parallel is apparently lost on Donald Trump.

There is no regime change, no obliteration of the Iranians' nuclear ambitions, no end to their support of terrorist proxies and no unconditional surrender.  Sure, the Strait of Hormuz may eventually reopen; which is a return to the status quo that existed on February 27 before Donald Trump made a unilateral decision to go to war.  While Iran suffered substantial losses they have emerged from a conflict with the world's most powerful military having learned they can close the Strait any time they choose; and force the world to bend to their will by means of economic extortion.

We gained nothing. 

Iran holds all of its enriched uranium and one solitary man set in motion a cascade of gravely destabilizing events that have had all manner of adverse consequences for global stability, security and the world economy.  All of this at a cost of thousands of lives, billions upon billions of dollars and diminished American prestige.  With global petroleum reserves nearly exhausted; Trump capitulated.

No matter how you spin it, Mr. Trump lost his own war.  

The final deal, if it comes, must hold every red line; no enrichment, full removal of the existing stockpile, verification with teeth, the Strait open and free, permanently.  

Redemption demands nothing less.

Let's Make a Deal

Ships of the world, start your engines.  Let the oil flow!

- Donald Trump 

Trump sought to break Iran's regime and for the present has to settle for reopening the Strait.   

As of the publication of this post at 2:30 PM, Monday nobody has seen the text of "The Deal" opening the Strait of Hormuz.  Perhaps this emerging agreement ends a costly war but it leaves Iran's leadership intact and its nuclear future unclear.  Nevertheless, this is good news.  I'll join the president in celebrating a resumption of the way the world was on February 27, the day before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.  Ending one of the biggest global supply disruptions in decades  is hardly a victory; but it is good news.  

Some immediate thoughts.

The market for oil and other critical products (fertilizer components come to mind) will remain tight for weeks and months while ships are repositioned, damaged infrastructure is assessed and repaired, depleted inventories are rebuilt, mines are removed, crew changes are made and navies, insurers and shipowners are convinced the channel is safe.  Even after traffic picks-up, another 50+ days are needed for oil to arrive in Asia and begin to be refined.  Supply chain relief  won't materialize  until late August and any meaningful normalization would only happen in September at the earliest.

Before this deal crude oil flows have recovered only slightly this month with roughly 10 ships transiting the strait  per day according the commodities and shipping data provider Kpler; a far cry from the normal prewar ship transits of 100+ daily.

Remember this; under Obama's JCPOA no soldiers or civilians were killed, no US bases attacked, no aircraft or ships were lost, no treasure was expended on a war and Iran's enriched uranium was turned over to the custody of the Russians.

Donald Trump unilaterally walked-away from that agreement and in the absence of a replacement Iran embarked on a frenzy of nuclear enrichment.  In 2025 Donald Trump claimed to have obliterated Iran's nuclear program.  And earlier this year unilaterally decided to go to war with Iran.  Consequently, American service members and Iranians were killed and wounded, US bases in the Middle East were targeted and attacked and $34 billion of our treasure expended.  Iran still possesses its enriched uranium, the regime is intact and their nuclear ambitions unresolved. 

Happy Birthday Mr. Trump.  Stay-tuned...

The Folly of Impulsive Indifferrence

 

The reckless nonchalance with which leaders like Trump and Putin launch wars speaks volumes about their judgement. 

Meanwhile, playing the long game, China bides its time as Russia and the US burn thru lives, resources and treasure.

 

Not only are the Chinese backing their Iranian allies, China's leadership appears to be better-read than Putin and certainly Trump.  

 

True victory comes not from defeating others, but from arranging circumstances so that victory becomes inevitable before conflict arises.

- Sun Tzu 

 

 

 

PS - An MOU is a start; nevertheless, the deal, if it comes, must hold every red line; no enrichment, full removal of the existing stockpile, verification with teeth, the Strait open and free, permanently.  Nothing less.

Pitch Perfect

With midterms looming and affordability on voters’ minds, Mr. Trump was asked whether Americans’ financial situation was motivating him to make a deal.  

Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon.*

- Donald Trump 

*No sarcasm. The President has finally spoken what needs to be said.  The deal, if it comes, must hold every red line; no enrichment, full removal of the existing stockpile, verification with teeth, the Strait open and free, permanently.  Nothing less.

Mixed Messages

I've published on this subject previously and reflecting-upon recent gains in the investment markets, a reasonably robust jobs report, the peace process (or lack-there-of) for the Iran war why are the people seemingly down on their economic situation and possibly even a wee bit grumpy?

Consumer sentiment has dropped again.  According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 48.2. from 49.8 in April.  The numbers are preliminary and subject to revision; nevertheless, this is the second consecutive all-time low in a data set that has been collected since the late 1970s.

I look at the economic world through the eyes of a recovering financial advisor and while I'm not wearing rose-colored glasses my sense is that excepting for global economic instability and rising energy costs as a consequence of the Iran war, economically-speaking, things are generally OK.  

What gives?  

Seems like the culprit are those nagging exceptions; namely the war, inflation due to energy costs and tariffs along with generalized economic uncertainty; all of which conspire to create bad vibes that bleeds into weakness in the mood of consumers.  This is important as the lion's share of our domestic economy is driven by consumers and their consumption.

According to the survey's director, Joanne Hsu, the drop is; "Owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases."  One-third of respondents mentioned gas prices as the biggest cause for concern; and another one-third cited tariffs. 

Stock indexes held positive in the wake of this news; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job creation was stronger than expected in April with non farm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000 and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%.  A recession is presently a low-probability event.  Further evidence that things, economically-speaking, are generally OK.  

My sense is the weakness in the Michigan survey numbers reflect public opinion in light of soaring prices for gas and diesel at the start of the summer travel season.  Consequently, there is a political shadow over all of this.  People are pissed-off and tiring of the drama have contracted a case of Trump fatigue.  And I get it; we just purchased airline tickets for a family vacation and with the cost of jet fuel doubling it's not a cheap date.

My preference is for policy that improves your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  Along with making the world a safer place; so, where’re we at?

On one hand the stock market is on an absolute tear, with the NASDAQ up 5% last week and nearly 13% year-to-date.  The proximate causes include a shaky cease-fire with Iran, a 28% surge in S&P corporate profits for the first quarter and some consensus-beating economic reports, like Friday's payroll numbers. 

On the other hand, there is this. 

The Strait remains off-line, inflation is up, Iran holds all of its enriched uranium and President Trump's war has set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have all manner of consequences for global stability, security and the world economy.  

Meanwhile there is a billion dollar+ ballroom, a triumphal arch, a glowering visage of Trump on passports and national park passes and a no-bid, resort-blue paint job for the historic Washington Monument Reflecting Pool.  

It's a mixed message for sure.

Good grief.... 

WWJD

I don't know what variety of Christian church Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth frequents, but I've read Jesus's Sermon on the Mount, commonly called the Beatitudes (New Testament, Matthew 5:9) where Jesus says: "Blessed are the Peacemakers, for they shall be called the sons of God."  Nowhere in the Beatitudes does Jesus praise Hegseth's hyper masculine death-dealing Christian knights of vengeance. 

There are many situations in the New Testament where Jesus eschews violence, including when he is arrested in the Garden of Gethsemane.

Nevertheless, none of this comes as a great surprise; if you follow the polling as I do MAGA World overwhelmingly likes war. 

And I'm not ashamed to share that I pray daily for deliverance from the war.   

Quote Of The Day

"The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing.  They are choking like a stuffed pig.  And it's going to be worse for them."

-Donald Trump

Friday Morning Bible Study

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth just prayed over the Iran war; and he used a fictional Bible verse.

From the previously unknown Book of Pulp Fiction.

At the Pentagon's monthly worship service on Wednesday, April 15, the Secretary of Defense stood up, told military leaders what they hear in worship should  'inform' their war decisions and then read a prayer calling for 'great vengeance and furious anger' on Iran. He said the prayer was called  'CSAR 2517,' which stands  for Combat Search And Rescue, and was based on Ezekiel 25:17.

Only it wasn't.

It was from Pulp Fiction. Specifically, it was the speech Samuel L. Jackson's character recites before executing an unarmed man.

The actual Ezekiel 25:17 has one sentence. The rest, including 'the path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men,' was invented for Tarantino's 1994 film.  

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger. And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

- Quentin Tarantino 

The Secretary of Defense read a fictional hit man's execution speech to bless an actual war.

And then he said this: 'Fifteen minutes ago I was talking about blockades with Admiral Cooper, and now we're going to study the Lord's word. May what we talk about, how we worship today, inform the remainder of our day and the remainder of our week.'

The man coordinating a naval blockade and potential strikes on Iran is citing Bible verses that don't exist. 

From Hollywood. 

To bless a war that has killed men and women in service to our country, thousands of Iranians and threatens order, security and the entire global economy.  

In Jesus' name.

Amen.

Pope Leo responded to Hegseth's earlier violent prayers on Palm Sunday. The Pope quoted actual scripture, Isaiah 1:15:'  Even though you make many prayers, I will not listen. Your hands are full of blood.' 

Archbishop Reinhard Marx of Munich called Hegseth's sermons 'shameless blasphemy.

This is the man in charge of American military.  You know; the good guys.

The Crusader-tattooed former Fox News host who prayed for 'overwhelming violence' at his confirmation.  Who has fired Army leadership out of paranoia. Who invoked a movie as scripture to justify killing more civilians.

Too be clear, I have no sympathy for the Iranian Mullahs.  But this mash-up of God, guns and country implies Hegseth belongs back in rehab.  

Why your ask?

Because you can’t make this shit up.

Choosing Your Battles

'Let those who have the power to unleash wars choose peace.  Not a peace imposed by force, but through dialogue.  Not with the desire to dominate others, but to counter them.  We are growing accustomed to violence, resigning ourselves to it and becoming indifferent.  Indifferent to the deaths of thousands of people.'

-Pope Leo XIV 

In the abstract these words might apply to any number of the world's leaders, including Iran's Mullahs.  Nevertheless, I suspect that the Pope was taking a shot at Donald Trump. Why do I think so you ask? 

Because of the response.  In relatively short order Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the Holy See's ambassador to the US, was summoned to the Pentagon and given a lecture warning that the United States has the military power to do whatever it wants and that the church had better get on board with American foreign policy.  Yup, like hoodlums shaking-down a neighborhood shopkeeper.  

Catholic leadership is attempting to frame the conflict in Iran in terms of Augustinian just war theory including civilian protection and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has infused the war with Christian nationalist rhetoric and a maximal lethality approach.

Is it just me, or does the the notion of going to war with a blood-soaked collection of nutty clerics who believe God is on their side all the while invoking God is on our side seem a bit nutty?  The irony is not lost on me.  It's the same God after-all.

What I know is this.  President Trump is losing support among Catholics - even white, non-Hispanic Catholics who supported him only a short couple of years ago.  Furthermore, The Pope's favorability rating overshadows that of the President's. 

Just between you and me I wouldn't pick a fight with the Vatican.  This blogger ain't dying on that hill.  And I'm not gonna embrace any God is only on my side bullshit dogma either.

Just like Pope Leo is a Sox fan, Jesus was a peacemaker.  These are known facts.  

How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

A funny thing happened on the road to the White House.  The president who turned-up isn't the same guy as the candidate.

The US war against Iran is unpopular and becoming more unpopular as it continues; furthermore, the latest Economist/YouGov Poll also finds few Americans support deploying ground troops to the conflict.

Or do other Americans see it differently?

Brigadier General Jack D. Ripper - Dr. Strangelove

It depends-upon whom you ask.

Only 30% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of President Trump's handling of the Iran war with 60% disapproving for a net approval of -30.

Almost all Democrats (88%) oppose the war while independents oppose it by a 3-to-1 ratio.  

But there is this: Collectively, most Republicans support the war (62%) yet there is a huge gap in support between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA Republicans (70% support vs. 33%).  Inasmuch as there are more than twice as many MAGA supporters as non-MAGA supporters among the GOP, MAGA opinion is basically settled science.   

Furthermore, a recent CBS News poll found that 92% of MAGA Republicans expressed support for military action against Iran, compared with only 70% of non-MAGA Republicans.

Amongst my MAGA acquaintances, and mostly on account of my unwavering support for arming Ukrainians in defending their country from a Soviet invasion, I have been characterized as everything from an armchair general to a warmonger.  

Naturally, beginning three years ago and following Vladimir Putin's unprovoked assault on Ukraine these same individuals reminded me at most every opportunity that supporting Ukraine's defense was distinctly at odds with candidate Trump's America First platform.  I quote:  'No foreign entanglements', 'We haven't won anything since WWII', 'Donald Trump is the greatest patriot ever' and 'You like war too much'.    

Candidate Trump may have ridden to reelection with a pledge to avoid forever wars yet systematically blowing alleged drug-running vessels and crews out of the Gulf of Mexico, a birthday military parade, deploying the military on America's streets, Houthis in Yemen (Operation Rough Rider), 529 air strikes across the middle east, Africa and central Asia, aerial strikes against Iranian sites last summer including ISIS in Iraq, threats to take Greenland by force, masked and unidentified federal paramilitary forces killing three American citizens, a military toppling of Venezuela's government, seizure of Venezuelan oil at the point of a gun, threats against Cuba, the current Iran war and recent musings to ditch NATO suggest that America First pretty much means whatever President Trump says it is; on any given day.  My impression is it is exceedingly warlike.

I had always figured that MAGA supporters preferred candidate Trump's populist pitch while bemoaning old-school Reagan neocons and their propensity for an assertive foreign policy.  Deservedly or not it is a fact I have been derisively called a neocon; yet the polling seems to suggest that MAGA world agrees-with and, only a short fourteen months into a second term, seems to have developed a powerful thirst for Trumpian military adventurism - both domestically and abroad.  

Just as with the CBS poll, if you dig thru the data, MAGA world is overwhelmingly in favor of mounting a war with Iran; and, when specifically asked if the war counts as an America First policy, only a mere 9% of the president's loyalists say it does not.

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute's 2025 National Defense Survey reveals that self-identified MAGA supporters were also the most supportive of all sorts of interventions in Taiwan with two-thirds supporting 'committing US forces in defense of Taiwan.'  That doesn't sound like isolationism does it?

Speaking for myself I happen to think that the Iranian Mullahs are a dangerous collection of twisted religious revanchists who would represent a threat to a peaceful world order if they had nukes and the capacity to deliver them.  I generally lose no sleep over dealing with bad actors by means of force.

Nevertheless, dealing with security threats deliberately and with forethought is not the same as impulsiveness.  And the world has no shortage of bad actors.  Most days I think the president has stepped in it this time and unleashed a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.  Let there be no misunderstanding, it is in my own self interest that things somehow work out for the best.  I'm also smart enough to know that five weeks into this the president's excursion is nowhere near a forever war.  Oh; and we don't have the highly-enriched stuff in our possession either.  Yet anyway.  There is that as a denouement.  

I have yet to hear what the exit strategy is.  You?

So for now I think we might be in for a stretch of rising energy costs, inflation and possibly some economic stagnation or contraction.  Only the passage of time will write the end to that chapter.

Meanwhile, there's a pile of the US population becoming grumpy over rising gasoline and diesel, increasing grocery prices due to supply chain disruptions and escalating transportation costs.  I'm beginning to believe that post-election MAGA world doesn't really care about that as much as they did a couple-three years ago.  Nobody's bitching about it at all on social media and not a single sole Trump supporter I speak with on a daily basis has yet to bring it up.  Loyalists are called that for a reason after-all.  Which is just fine; and it is perfectly OK to own what you have wrought.

It has occurred to me this might have something to do with ideological principles; dictated by whatever president Trump tells us to believe and the possibility that the beliefs of some reading this might be insincere.  Which is fine too; people are disingenuous all day long.  I understand that sometimes it is difficult to admit making a mistake.  I get it.  I make mistakes too.  Get over it.  Own it.

Or perhaps at its core the principle is to agree with the president in every respect; even if his actions contradict what he promised in order to get a voter's support.  No matter it damages their business and costs them the actual farm.  On that matter I can only speculate.

So, for any of my MAGA acquaintances reading this; if you want to call me an armchair general or a warmonger; have at it.  Throw neocon my direction for good measure.  I have a thick skin and since you're doing it from the warming glow of your device and not personally to my face I understand the context. Water off a duck's back.  Das macht nichts aus.  

Polling is science.  With growing awareness the rest of the world is learning that MAGA world likes war; and way the heck more than me.  Does MAGA like it too much?  That's hard to know as we're only fourteen months into President Trump's military adventurism.  I think we ain't seen nuthn' yet.  But I'm perfectly happy to be wrong.

I'm old enough to remember back to 1965 when a certain general famously pledged to eschew ground troops and use naval and air power to bomb the Vietnamese - Back into the stone age.  In his April 1st address to the nation it was fascinating to see and hear President Trump invoke the very same oath - verbatim.  Curious about from whom the president is taking his cues? 

A general splendidly associated with ruthless scorched-earth tactics against civilians.

Stay-tuned..... 

Moving The Goal Posts

Throughout his political career Donald Trump has often articulated a disdain for open-ended military conflicts.  You know; Forever Wars.    

He has often cited the trillions of dollars spent in Iraq and Afghanistan suggesting the US received nothing in return.  As an America First Populist he has argued that these resources are better spent on domestic priorities.  Both he and his followers have frequently blamed warmongering globalists, neocons, military leadership and a shadowy Deep State for dragging the country into unnecessary conflicts.  And he has been consistent in deriding the notion of nation-building.  

I cannot argue any of the foregoing as there is truth to be found in all of it; particularly the costs in lives, both military and civilian.  The purpose of this post is nothing more than to note, as an outside observer, the shifting rationales cascading in the wake of Operation Epic Fury. 

Following the January 2020 drone strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani Trump claimed the action was necessary to head-off imminent and sinister attacks on US diplomats and service members. Pressed by Congress the administration later moved the goal posts and in a formal memo to Congress, deleted any reference to an imminent claim, instead justifying the strike as a response to past attacks and to deter future aggression. 

In 2025 President Trump launched Operation Midnight Hammer striking Iranian nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow.  The president announced the facilities were obliterated, effectively ending Iran's nuclear ambitions.  In short order, and in direct contradiction of earlier claims, the administration moved the goal posts claiming Iran was rebuilding the same facilities as a rationale for the recent escalation of hostilities.

Then the goal posts were planted on Iran's ballistic missile program.  The rationale was the Iran was developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking our homeland soon. 

Defense Secretary Hegseth moved the goal posts arguing that Iran's conventional missiles and drones were a shield protecting their nuclear ambitions thus requiring the US to first dismantle Iran's conventional military.

Secretary of State Rubio suggested that the recent wave of attacks were preemptive in nature arguing that the US struck Iran because it knew Israel was planning an attack; consequently, the US had to strike first to neutralize Iran's capacity to attack our middle eastern bases.  Goal posts moved, again. 

Ironically the most inconsistent is the regime change rationale requiring moving the goal posts in both end zones.  Trump himself appealed to the Iranian people to take control of your government as he cheered the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as a turning point.  Simultaneously, Defense Secretary Hegseth stated that the operations are not a so-called regime change war, framing it instead as a narrow mission to destroy specific Iranian military assets.  

Trump Says Germany is Helping With Iran Strikes

Between you and me, and hopefully within a relatively short passage of time, the administration will settle on some sort of rationale.  The goal posts may look something like this:  With insufficient international and weakening domestic support, military losses, rising oil prices, market volatility, insufficient evidence of any Iranian opposition capacity for overthrowing the current theocracy and a general lack of progress towards whatever rationale the administration eventually settles-on, it will be TACO time. The President will declare a win and victoriously announce we've done all that is possible for freedom-loving Iranians and that it is now time to move-on leaving them to pick-up the pieces.

I happen to believe regime change is overreach.  For the sake of Americans who wear a uniform in service to this country and civilians caught in the crossfire I pray for sooner; rather than longer. 

EDIT to add one hour following publication:

Attacks have intensified, with Iranian drone and missile strikes heading towards the Arab Gulf states. Many of these states rely on costly U.S. interceptors, and with stockpiles dwindling, energy infrastructure could become exposed.