BDA

Saturday evening President Trump claimed that United States strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had been completely and totally obliterated.   

Bomb damage assessment (BDA) is the process of assessing damage inflicted on a target following aerial bombing or following a strike from a stand-off weapon; this continues.

Clearly the sites Iran had been using to produce highly enriched uranium have been seriously damaged as a consequence of US bombing.  The question on everyone's minds is whether Tehran's program had been decapitated or simply pushed into smaller, secretive scattered facilities.  In the run up to the latest hostilities it was assumed that most, if not all, of Iran's cache of 60% enriched uranium was stashed at the bombed locations.    

There are plenty of analysts who believe Iran moved much of its enriched uranium—especially its 408 kg (~900 lb) stockpile enriched up to 60%—to undisclosed or underground locations before the strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. 

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access is now severely restricted following the strikes.  Inspectors have no immediate access to key sites and the IAEA is presently unable to conduct comprehensive assessments to confirm damage to centrifuges and other production technology, confirm damage to actual uranium, or if it has been removed. 

The strikes appear to have slowed Iran’s nuclear program temporarily, but not destroyed it. Iran likely relocated both enriched uranium and centrifuge assets beforehand. Without full IAEA access, the true scope of Iran’s enriched stockpile and hidden capabilities remains unclear. Analysts estimate Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for 6–10 bombs within weeks given its current enriched stock and capacity.  Considering that Iran has patiently proclaimed Death To America for fifty years; proliferation risks persist.

I could be wrong, but without further information, verification and diplomacy I'm unconvinced President Trump has made your and my world a safer place.  And, jessus, this second rodeo has so many bright shiny objects it's enough to make the heads of us great unwashed spin faster than an enrichment centrifuge.  

Note: In the early-mid 1990s The Missus and I were on a western road trip and found ourselves slightly lost while looking for Knob Noster State Park. Stumbling-upon the guard gate to Whiteman Air Force Base we asked for directions, got turned around and set straight for the campground. I actually spotted a B-2 Spirit bomber on that drive to the state park.  Low on the horizon it was possible the aircraft was making an approach for landing.  Distinctive in that it could be seen in thin profile during a turn; vanishing from sight on the level.  It is still amazing to me these messengers of death and destruction can depart from a sleepy Missouri location, travel to the other side of the world, wreak havoc and return home in the space of a four shift workday.  

Photo Credit - Air and Space Forces Magazine