BDA

Saturday evening President Trump claimed that United States strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had been completely and totally obliterated.   

Bomb damage assessment (BDA) is the process of assessing damage inflicted on a target following aerial bombing or following a strike from a stand-off weapon; this continues.

Clearly the sites Iran had been using to produce highly enriched uranium have been seriously damaged as a consequence of US bombing.  The question on everyone's minds is whether Tehran's program had been decapitated or simply pushed into smaller, secretive scattered facilities.  In the run up to the latest hostilities it was assumed that most, if not all, of Iran's cache of 60% enriched uranium was stashed at the bombed locations.    

There are plenty of analysts who believe Iran moved much of its enriched uranium—especially its 408 kg (~900 lb) stockpile enriched up to 60%—to undisclosed or underground locations before the strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. 

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access is now severely restricted following the strikes.  Inspectors have no immediate access to key sites and the IAEA is presently unable to conduct comprehensive assessments to confirm damage to centrifuges and other production technology, confirm damage to actual uranium, or if it has been removed. 

The strikes appear to have slowed Iran’s nuclear program temporarily, but not destroyed it. Iran likely relocated both enriched uranium and centrifuge assets beforehand. Without full IAEA access, the true scope of Iran’s enriched stockpile and hidden capabilities remains unclear. Analysts estimate Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for 6–10 bombs within weeks given its current enriched stock and capacity.  Considering that Iran has patiently proclaimed Death To America for fifty years; proliferation risks persist.

I could be wrong, but without further information, verification and diplomacy I'm unconvinced President Trump has made your and my world a safer place.  And, jessus, this second rodeo has so many bright shiny objects it's enough to make the heads of us great unwashed spin faster than an enrichment centrifuge.  

Note: In the early-mid 1990s The Missus and I were on a western road trip and found ourselves slightly lost while looking for Knob Noster State Park. Stumbling-upon the guard gate to Whiteman Air Force Base we asked for directions, got turned around and set straight for the campground. I actually spotted a B-2 Spirit bomber on that drive to the state park.  Low on the horizon it was possible the aircraft was making an approach for landing.  Distinctive in that it could be seen in thin profile during a turn; vanishing from sight on the level.  It is still amazing to me these messengers of death and destruction can depart from a sleepy Missouri location, travel to the other side of the world, wreak havoc and return home in the space of a four shift workday.  

Photo Credit - Air and Space Forces Magazine

 

A Force For Good

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, was created in 1949 by 12 countries to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.  

To this day NATO's stated purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military deterrence.

Following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine previously non-aligned and neutral Finland and Sweden requested, hand-in-hand, membership in the alliance.  As a consequence, NATO has expanded and strengthened as a direct consequence of Putin's aggression.  

At the present time NATO has 32 member countries.  These countries, called NATO Allies, are sovereign states that come together through NATO to discuss political and security issues and make collective decisions by consensus

Article 5, which stands at the heart of NATO's founding says that an attack on any member of the alliance would be viewed as an attack on all.  If such an attack does occur, each member will take measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.  Article 5 has been invoked only once; following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.  NATO came to America's aid.

It's good to have friends.

NATO's recent expansion does not inherently threaten world peace or risk nuclear war.  It is a defensive alliance  focused on deterring aggression and protecting member states.   Any new memberships are driven by the voluntary decisions of sovereign nations seeking security.  Ukraine is not a NATO member; a potential for future membership would naturally be conditioned  on meeting specific criteria and the consensus of existing allies.  NATO has always emphasized responsible management of geopolitical dynamics and conflict prevention.

Contrast that with Russia's annexation of Crimea and expansionist designs over countries that it has historically considered part of the Russian sphere of influence.  To be clear, the alliance's doctrine aligns with the core belief that nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought; prioritizing deterrence in order to prevent conflicts.

NATO has successfully integrated Eastern European nations without triggering a major conflict demonstrating a capacity for responsible enlargement of the pact members.  NATO support for Ukraine is primarily defensive, aiming to enhance Ukraine's sovereignty.

NATO is not a monolithic organization and its membership doesn't always agree.  Such is the nature of a diverse membership of democracies, nonaligned nations and tolerance for differing points of view.  

On balance I believe that NATO has been good for Europe and good for Canada and the U.S.  It has been good for our economies and good for our defense forces.  It has been good for the world.

There is a minority that will take issue with my view; nevertheless, in a world with dangerously bad actors, in my opinion for 75 years NATO has been a force for good and it's better to be aligned with the good guys instead of the bad guys.

There will be a presidential election in November, the outcome of which portends the role of the US in the alliance and the security of democracies that form this alliance.  In case you missed it there is an unholy alliance of Russia, China and North Korea and Iran. 

NATO is a vital counterweight to the destabilizing influences of these unstable dictatorships.  It is as relevant to our security as the venerable (almost as old) B-52 bomber.  A deterrence and a force for good.

Unholy Alliance

In case you missed it, Warren Strobel and Mike Gordon over at the Wall Street Journal, authored a splendid piece of journalism highlighting how Vladimir Putin rebuilt Russia's unprovoked war against Ukraine with the assistance of our adversaries - Iran, North Korea and China.

Russia's military cooperation with Iran, North Korea and China has expanded into the sharing of sensitive technologies that could threaten the US and its allies long after the war in Ukraine ends...

The speed and depth of the expanding security ties involving US adversaries has at times surprised US intelligence analysts.  Russia and the other nations have set aside historic frictions to collectively counter what they regard as a US-dominated global system, they said...

Russia's war in Ukraine is...propped up by China, North Korea and Iran, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday.  They want to see the US fail.  They want to see NATO fail.  If they succeed in Ukraine, it will make us more vulnerable and the world more dangerous.

This expansion among the world's most authoritarian and brutal regimes echoes observations made by Anne Applebaum and Bill Kristol. 

So communist China, nationalist Russia, theocratic Iran, Bolivarian socialist Venezuela, whatever North Korea is - these aren't countries that share an ideology....But they do share a common interest.  And the common interest is undermining us.  And by us, I mean America, Europe, the liberal world, the democratic world... 

Their own oppositions, whether it's the Hong Kong democracy movement, or whether it's the Navalny movement in Russia, or whether it's the women's movement in Iran, are inspired by and use democratic language.  And they use the language of freedom and liberty and rights and rule of Law.  And the dictatorships need to undermine that language in order to keep in power domestically...

And they have an interest in shaping the debate inside the liberal democracies in ways that benefit them.  And increasingly, they've concluded that what benefits them is the rise of illiberal, disruptive and radical parties, because when that happens, the Western world or the democratic world loses its sense of community and solidarity.  It loses its ability to make group decisions.  If we're divided by radical politics in different  countries, then we're not very good at standing up to them.  And they very much see this as a war, as a competition, as a conflict, even if we don't. 

And so now, they are betting that Trump will be the person who destroys the United States, whether he makes it ungovernable, whether he assaults the institutions, so that they no longer function, whether he creates so much division and chaos that the US can't have a foreign policy anymore.  That's what they want, and that's what they're hoping he will do.  And again, I don't want to the conspiratorial about how much power they have.  They don't run US elections, but they will try to influence the outcome however they can, because they think he will weaken the country ultimately.  And, by the way, from what we know, the Chinese are only just beginning to experiment in this world.  From what we know, the Chinese agree.  So, he's the candidate of the authoritarian world, not because he'll make America stronger, but ultimately because they think he'll make America weaker.

May you live in interesting times - has long been claimed to be a Chinese curse.  Who knows for sure?  What we know for sure is the world is a dangerous place and Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are seriously bad actors.  An unholy alliance.

*Content courtesy of The Bulwark