My Kingdom for a Leader

The news this week is that President Trump will open the country for business for the  Easter holiday.

I suppose the president is clairvoyant?  Has he mystical powers that allow him to divine the future?  Raise his staff and part the waters of our unseen viral enemy?  I digress.  

If the president actually implements this plan it would be an interesting gamble as Trump would be betting that conditions across the country will be less serious than expected by Easter Sunday.  If he wins that bet the economic damage caused by his administration’s delays, bungling and malingering might eventually be stemmed.  Recovery of the economy and investment markets would eventually follow.  And he might triumphantly win reelection.  

If he loses the bet he may be held responsible for damaging the economy to such a degree that it plunges into a seriously deeper recession.  Maybe even a depression.  He will have contributed to a larger death toll and possibly lose the November election.  

Betting is risky business.

Consider the story of South Korea.  Only a few months ago the incidence of Covid-19 cases in South Korea went from a couple dozen to thousands.  On the last day of February - 909 new cases were identified.  Nevertheless, in the space of about a week the number of new cases was cut in half.  And cut in half – again – in the space of an additional day.  

Last weekend South Korea reported 64 new cases and never more than 8 deaths in a single day.  This in a country of 50 million people.  And without the economic damage caused by lock downs both here and in Europe.

So how is it that the South Koreans whipped Covid-19's ass while here it is growing exponentially? 

First, the government of South Korea recognized the risk and acted decisively.  There was no dithering-about or blame-shifting to save face.  More importantly the success of South Korea came from their understanding of pandemics and epidemiology.  Yes, science.  Something that makes Donald Trump's head hurt.  Contact tracing was performed on a massive scale so as to identify and test the persons who had been in contact with an infected individual.  At its peak they were testing 50,000 people a day!  

Identifying and quarantining the exposed from their families and others became a high priority item.  And guess what?  It worked.    

Team Trump could have chosen to embrace the same actions as early as January of this year.  Instead they placed a high priority-upon lying, denials and keeping-up appearances.  Which is not at all surprising to this casual observer.  There, again, my threshold of tolerance for liars is exceedingly low.  When you surround yourself with sycophants and minions to stroke your ego you have a higher probability of provoking the wrath of The Law of Unintended Consequences.  

This is the kind of national emergency that only strong presidential leadership can solve. Alas, President Trump has decided not to solve it.  

As long as bets are being made - my bet is that if he loses his bet he’ll blame it on someone else.

Stay tuned......