Purple Predicter

In the Republican primary election earlier this year Nikki Haley garnered 20% of the vote total here on the peninsula. Trump, Haley and DeSantis were on the ballot and even though Haley had previously withdrawn from the race she still garnered a fifth of the Republican vote.  I wonder if anyone on Team Trump has this on their radar screen.

Why, you ask?

Because the County of Door has correctly backed every presidential winner for almost three decades, including Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.  This deeply purple peninsula has picked the winning presidential candidate since 1996.

Is it something in the water?  More likely it's something in the population dynamic.

The year-round permanent population here is only about 30,000 individuals (give or take).  Naturally not all are voters.  But the population also holds title to the highest percentage of adults over the age of 65 of any county in Wisconsin.  Not in total numbers; but as a percentage of the total population.  There's a large number of retirees who live here permanently.  Not everyone wants to live in Florida.  Florida has cockroaches as big as your hand, termites, fire ants, boa constrictors, alligators, heat, humidity, mold and rot.  If you're paying attention to the news Florida has hurricanes and flooding.  Florida is also home to nutty people who want to dictate what you check out of the library.  No way would I choose to live there.  Nevertheless, I'd visit during the Christmas or Easter holidays because Florida is home to the National Naval Aviation Museum in Pensacola and isn't as much of a fever swamp that time of year.  But I digress.  

In my discussion groups - beside me - you'd find retirees that include a business executive, dentist, molecular biologist, naval architect, doctor, civil engineer, sheriff deputy, shipyard worker, groundwater geologist, teacher, medical examiner, constitutional lawyer, fisheries biologist and much more.  The peninsula is sorta like the Bermuda Triangle of knowledge.  A ginormous retirement brain trust. Thoughtful people choose to make their home here.  Shoot, if I had a sail boat, motor cruiser or liked to fish I'd move here when I retired.  No matter where you live you'd be fifteen minutes from a boat launch or marina.

My unscientific and casual take on this is that my neighbors and acquaintances have productive, intellectual and political conversations and are willing to share thoughts and opinions.  The basis for what they believe doesn't come from an echo chamber.  Like I said - they're thoughtful.  They engage in civil discourse and disagree without being disagreeable.  I've never lived in a place like this before.  It agrees with me. 

So, getting back to Nikki Haley; the GOP primary vote count and the up-coming 2024 election have created conditions that might be interesting.  There is much anticipation over how things will play-out.  Trump lost in 2020 yet every single down-ballot republican was elected.  All of them.  And they were in the majority too.

After the November election Nikki Haley might just say, I told you so.  Time will tell.

I think this election is too close to call and if Trump wins not much changes for me.  If he loses my expectation is that most everything will go into Sudden Death Overtime. 

You can learn more about the phenomenon of this purple county here.

We got a game on people.  Exciting stuff.