Crime Plunges

Marking the largest single-year drop on record and possibly the lowest murder rate since 1900, murders in major US urban centers  plummeted by over 20% last year.

Crimes in nearly all categories fell with 36% fewer robberies, 29% fewer carjackings and 25% fewer homicides compared to 2019.  

27 out of 35 cities surveyed saw declines in homicides chalking-up a year over year 20% decline nationwide compared to 2024.   At -60% Baltimore was witness to the largest drop while Los Angeles saw a 39% drop. 

According to the Council on Criminal Justice, burglaries fell by 45% and larceny by 20% compared to 2019. Despite remaining higher than 2019 levels, motor vehicle thefts fell by 27% last year compared to 2024.

The extent to which President Trump's policies are responsible is the subject of considerable debate between the administration and independent researchers.

The White House and Department of Justice (DOJ) cite several factors including the deployment of federal resources and army national guard personnel to major cities - specifically targeting Democrat-led Blue Cities characterized as war zones.  Surging ICE operations which targeted and removed thousands of criminal aliens from US streets.  And lastly encouraging stricter federal prosecutions and promoting a positive image of law enforcement to boost morale among rank and file police and recruitment.

In contrast, criminologists and organizations such as the Council on Criminal Justice and the Vera Institute argue that the 2025 drop is a continuation of a "virtuous cycle" that began in 2023.   Significant is as the social, economic, and psychological stressors of the COVID-19 pandemic receded, crime rates naturally began to revert to pre-2020 levels.  Experts credit the 2021 American Rescue Plan and the 2022 Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which funded community violence intervention programs that reached peak effectiveness in 2024–2025.  Finally, policy changes typically take more than a few months to manifest in national statistics. Critics argue that Trump's 2025 cuts to DOJ grants for community safety may actually risk reversing these gains in 2026.  

On one hand factors contributing to this statistical avalanche include technology advances leading to precision policing and a reduction in court backlogs.  On the other hand, community-based programs implementing violence interrupters and even a generational shift in the data suggesting Gen Z committing fewer violent crimes are responsible.  

While the Trump administration's aggressive enforcement coincided with the record-breaking drop, the decline was already well underway by 2024. Most analysts believe the 2025 figures are too complex to parse and I'm disinterested in burning valuable bandwidth on someone's confirmation bias, selective cherry-picking or group-think.

Either way you slice it, crime in many cities has been falling since former President Biden's final two years in office.  The decline witnessed last year is a sharp reversal of the outlier pandemic-era surge that commenced during Trump's first term.   

For most of the last year I've been witness to more than enough reality television drama recently punctuated by the slaying of a couple of my countrymen; a singularly Trumpian Kent State moment. These deaths have had a profound impact upon my psyche; mostly a consequence of a small handful of acquaintances reveling and basking in the reflected glory of the slaying of Americans - for all the world to see on social media.  Absorb that readers; and allow it to register.  I don't care if it is Renee Good , Alex Pretti or Charlie Kirk; don't behave like a bloodthirsty damn ghoul.  Rejoicing in the gunning-down of other Americans reflects poorly.  

Drama-aside, there hasn't been much if any permanent progress on anything that will improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life. The budget and deficit have exploded to record levels and tariffs have increased the cost of living on all Americans. Nevertheless, this news from the crime blotter might just be evidence of our immediate world becoming a safer place.  Considering most everyone around here leave their keys in their vehicles I'm gonna embrace the drop.  Time will tell if it is lasting.  I'm a patient sort.....