Who Wants To Make A Deal?

Last week a buddy and I were pondering the Iran war, the nuclear deal (or lack thereof) and was Iran cheating when Donald Trump exited from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018.  And for some strange reason a day later it occurred to me that Mr. Trump's situation is similar to that of the popular game show Let's Make a Deal that aired from 1963 to 1976.

If you're old like me you may recall that costumed audience members had to deal with fast-talking host Monty Hall in choosing what might be lurking behind up to three doors or curtains.  Was it a fabulous prize - like an automobile?  Or a lesser prize - called a Zonk?

Unexpectedly called-off yesterday, if nuclear talks resume in Pakistan sometime soon President Trump will be facing a similar conundrum mostly a consequence of his own making.  The President had previously characterized the JCPOA as "a horrible, one-sided deal."   And now he has the opportunity to make a new deal.  Will it be Door Number One, Two or Three?  But first, let's put to bed anything about cheating back in 2018.

Whether Iran was cheating at the time Trump withdrew from the JCPOA is debatable.  At the time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was monitoring sites on the ground and had confirmed that Iran was staying within the limits allowed for uranium enrichment and stockpile size.  Senior officials in the Trump administration, including Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, testified to Congress that Iran was in technical compliance with the agreement.  Consequently, the consensus among both international monitors and the US intelligence community was that Iran was not cheating.

That the agreement had flaws and shortcomings is not debatable. Everyone knew that; including the Iranians.  Trump's primary argument for withdrawal wasn't that Iran was breaking any rules but that  the agreement itself was fatally flawed including a sunset provision that would allow Iran to pursue enrichment activities after the passage of fifteen years and that the deal did not address Iran's ballistic missile program.

So Trump tore-up the agreement and walked away.

And in the absence of a replacement agreement Iran set in motion an enrichment spree and expansion of their ballistic missile program leaving them closer to a bomb than ever before.  Today, the IAEA tells us Iran likely has a total of 11 tons of uranium at various enrichment levels.  With further purification that is sufficient to build up to 100 nuclear warheads.  All of this happened in the open and without an inning of cheating.

It is noteworthy to remember that Iran had previously lived up to its pledge under the JCPOA to ship to Russia 12.5 tons of its overall stockpile of enriched uranium.  After which, Iran's weapons industry didn't have sufficient material to build even a single bomb. 

The actions of president Trump have had all manner of consequences; intended and otherwise.  Going back to 2018, ask yourself, was the original deal an OK deal?  Was abrogating it a better deal?  And who owns the results?  

From 2021 to 2025 the Biden administration was unsuccessful in negotiating new limits.  And throughout the negotiations Iran kept enriching and expanding its cache of enriched uranium.

Then, in June of last year, Trump bombed Iran's enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordo including underground storage tunnels and facilities at Isfahan.  He famously declared to the world that Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated."   

But probably not.  

In very short order, Operation Epic Fury was launched in late February of this year.  Two months later the Straits of Hormuz are blockaded and effectively closed and presently the US and Iran have entered a period of tentative diplomacy.  President Trump has previously dispatched Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan; and until yesterday planned to send real estate developers and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad to conduct indirect talks presumably to secure a replacement nuclear agreement. 

A fragile ceasefire has been extended.  The president tells us that the military operation has decimated Iran's industrial base, ballistic missile production, drone manufacturing and sunk the navy.

President Trump's decision to unilaterally go to war with Iran without consulting Congress, the American people or (excepting for Israel) any of our global allies; set in motion a cascade of destabilizing events that have dangerous consequences for global stability, security and the world's economy.

Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has explicitly ruled-out direct talks with Witkoff and Kushner leaving Pakistan serving as an intermediary shuttling messages between the US and Iran. 

The administration is wise to seek an agreement that permanently eliminates any path to nuclear weapons, including restrictions on ballistic missiles and a cessation of support for Hezbollah and Hamas.

Intelligence reports suggest Iran still has its stockpile of highly-enriched uranium.  The president has to come up with a plan for that and Iran has to agree to it.  

Iran has signaled an openness to discussing nuclear concessions contingent-upon sanctions relief, reparations and a formal end to hostilities.  The missile program appears to be a non-starter.  

I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office inasmuch as a rushed-deal (to end the war) has a high probability of being a sloppy deal.  I do not think that Trump has the attention to detail or the patience for arduous negotiations that would lead to a real deal.  I have little faith in Trump getting this right.  I think he wants to save face.  He wants to say his deal is better than Obama's.  He wants to get the heck out of this morass as soon as he can; slapdash deal notwithstanding.  Furthermore, with a decapitation of Iranian leadership and wholesale destruction of Iran's economic base what are the implications for a civil war and expansion of unrest in the Middle East?  Would you agree the situation is disordered and chaotic?

And, of course, the Strait remains effectively closed leaving global supply chains seriously messed-up with all sorta unintended consequences.  So, I'm still waiting on President Trump to improve your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  Along with making the world a safer place.

I sure hope he gets this right....