And the Jersey of the Year Award goes to....
Monday, July 31, 2023
Sunday, July 30, 2023
Hygiene
To reduce the spread of disease in song birds clean and sanitize your bird feeders at periodic intervals.
Disassemble, hot water, dish detergent, splash of bleach, bottle brush, rinse, dry in the sun.
Presto!
The Big Fat Middle
So, it would appear to this blogger's eyes that Donald Trump will be the presumptive GOP candidate for president in 2024. His polling is strong, his base of support solid, there is not another candidate even close and with each and every indictment his base is further energized and he reaps buckets of cash fundraising off the news.
Trump is inevitable. And there is a chance he could win. (I'll get to that at the end.)
Which, for the record, doesn't scare me. When I became aware of Mr. Trump 35 or more years ago I figured him for something of a con-man from Queens. You could say I was a Never Trumper before it was a thing.
As much as I considered him a shady person it never rose to the level of hate. Let there be no misunderstanding; I thrived under his presidency. Of course I considered Bill Clinton a misogynist pig; and I thrived under his administration. So humor me while I lay out the the case for the reelection or defeat of Donald Trump. I'll do my best to cover the good, the bad and the ugly.
After-all, the former guy has a record to run on.
We have a porous border. In
an official 2018 report, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
reported to the administration that they had an insufficient pipeline of
candidates to fill existing vacancies. Trump did nothing. Separating children (as young as
five months old) from their mothers turned the border into a
flashpoint. Trump's public support took a hit. Trump did succeed in
restricting asylum applications and refugee entrants. Comprehensive
immigration reform was never pursued or signed into law.
Only about 80 miles of new barrier was constructed during Trump's term of office. This included 47 miles of primary fencing and 33 miles of secondary fence. Mexico did not contribute a single peso to build it. It is estimated that it would require an investment of $25 billion for a Great Wall. The problem wasn't fixed and it persists to today.
It should come as no surprise that following his 2016 campaign Trump wanted to come down hard on illegal immigration on our southern border. (See border wall failure above.) Curiously, he also imposed tighter restrictions on the legal immigration of highly skilled and desirable workers needed to perform useful stuff like contributing to domestic corporate growth and profitability, our general economic health and strengthen Social Security and Medicare.
Trump's DHS imposed restrictions on the H-1B visa program insisting that these workers were taking jobs from Americans. The administration did everything it could to meddle with the need of American business to fill positions that could not be met with applicants from our domestic workforce. As with ICE's recruiting challenges so it was with corporate America. Under Trump, H-1B visas were reduced by a third. Not only were engineers, doctors, technical and other skilled workers denied entry but important seasonal labor that feeds the local tourism engine where I live was restricted as well. As with tariffs, this was big government picking winners and losers.Trump promised that he would repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with something Beautiful. Nope. More than seven million Americans lost their Health insurance during his term of office. He even had the temerity to request the SCOTUS to strike down the ACA in the midst of a pandemic with no plan for a replacement.
Our trade deficit ballooned to its largest level in history under Trump. When Biden took office we were purchasing more goods and services from other countries than we sold to the rest of the world. One of Trump's signature policy actions was the imposition of tariffs - a blunt instrument which caused significant harm to our economy.
Trump boasted about all the money China contributed to our coffers from tariffs on imported goods. The truth is his trade war cost domestic consumers $34 billion annually in increased prices. Tariff are almost universally paid by consumers; it is an indirect tax. Taxpayers also paid an additional $22 billion annually in agriculture subsidies to farmers hurt by tariffs. And an estimated 300,000 domestic jobs were lost. Anecdotally, I paid an estimated $800 markup for a new Kawasaki Mule as a consequence of Trump steel tariffs. Telling me China is paying the tariffs is a lie. No truth in advertising.
Donald Trump declared that he would eliminate the federal deficit. The truth is that it grew by 60% under his watch ballooning to a record new level. More than a whopping $8 trillion accounting for 20% of the total debt by the time he left office.
Trump promised me and you and everyone else that our tax burden would be reduced. In-fact he made the claim that: Only wealthy people like me can afford to pay more. Alas, by the time 2027 rolls-around, 83% of his tax cuts will go to the top 1% of individual taxpayers. Yeah, we can argue that if you pay more you get a larger cut. Nevertheless, just like half of all Americans my income taxes rose under his watch. Don't believe it? Talk to my CPA. The good news is that corporations spent their tax cut savings to repurchase and retire massive amounts of stock. Stock buybacks boost share prices. So if you're a retired guy like me your retirement savings get a positive bump. On balance, I chalk this up to a success as my invested net worth grew as a result. And I scored a ginormous bonus buying opportunity under COVID turning my income tax loss into a capital gains tax gain.
Speaking of COVID, if there ever was a case to be made for willful blindness this was it.
Created following the Ebola Virus outbreak, and part of the National Security Council, Trump's first misstep was disbanding the Global Health Security Team in May of 2018. Trump seriously believed we'd never have a pandemic. Back when I had a day job, large loss avoidance was always at the top of the list of objectives but nobody asked me about this. During his final year in office hundreds of thousands of our countrymen died from a pandemic that Donald Trump deliberately downplayed to the public. As a consequence, the US has accounted for more than 25% of the global COVID deaths with only 4% of the population.
Take a moment to reflect upon this grim figure.
When the President spoke, many times chaos followed. He declared that the pandemic was under control or it was not serious. He promised everyone would be tested when factually there were few tests available. He claimed a vaccine was just around the corner when it was still 12-18 months away. There was hydroxychloquine, bleach, light treatments and magical wishful thinking. It was a cluster.
The bottom line is China is to blame for the outbreak and spread of coronavirus. Trump gets credit for Operation Warp Speed and fast-tracking vaccine development. He should have talked it-up in his reelection campaign. (But nobody listens to me). Nevertheless, the buck stops with the White House for dithering and finally responding with a delayed and disjointed federal response. Inept messaging resulted in a needless loss of lives, record small business bankruptcies and millions of students falling behind. A steady hand counts for a lot.
Donald Trump also had an endearing quality that always puzzled me. He almost always confused the investment markets with the general economy and conflated his influence on the stock market. I fondly recall that he stated at one point: If you do not reelect me you will all become poor. The implication being that, as with magic, his Midas Touch was responsible for rising equity prices and portfolio returns. Never confuse markets and policy with magic.
I always figured that this conflation would get him in trouble at some point so I gave my team at the former day job a heads-up. I asked them to prepare a short list of stocks with solid earnings and good prospects that might be temporarily damaged by Trump's glib and loose talk. And wouldn't you know it; as the COVID storm gathered strength Trump now has the unique distinction of giving a national address meant to calm a worried nation that ended-up tanking the markets. I saw that one coming and I thank DJT for the buying opportunity.
Loose lips sink both ships and markets.
In my opinion Trump's largest failure was the culmination of events on January 6, 2021 when a mob of his supporters rioted, stormed and occupied the US Capitol. This can be laid at the feet of a president who demonized the media, promoted lies, questioned the authority of the courts and rejected the results of a free and fair election.
I don't care if you're breaking the glass of a neighborhood pawn shop or the windows and doors of the US Capitol. Inciting violence under any and all circumstances is wrong. For me the President's incitement and instigation of lawlessness and violence was a Bridge Too Far.
For many this was the straw that broke the camel's back.
Summation.
Donald Trump was a consequential US President; a change agent. His successes included cutting the corporate tax rate and reducing burdensome regulations; all good for the economy. He can be credited with pushing back against a brutally repressive China and providing defensive arms to Ukraine. He negotiated a new trade pact with our friendly neighbors to the north and south and pushed Congress to approve it. He played a valuable role in facilitating the normalization of ties between Israel and several Arab neighbors.
Trump deserves credit for reform of the criminal justice system following passage of the First Step Act as a mechanism to end mass incarcerations. He set-back the ISIS caliphate and rubbed-out Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. He also created the Space Force; the first new military service branch since 1947 when the Air Force was formed
Trump's most lasting impact will be his reshaping of the federal judiciary. Three supreme court justices, 226 judges on the federal bench including 54 judges on the 13 US circuit courts. It is the courts that always have the final say in our political system setting policy and precedent for decades to come.
In closing, I am convinced that of all the potential match-ups there are for the 2024 White House Joe Biden is the sole Democrat capable of defeating Donald Trump. There is little popular support for this octogenarian choice; but unless I am famously wrong again it is what it is.
To my Trump friends, take heed. If you run on a campaign platform solely on retribution and revenge you do so at your own peril. To win a general election you need to get beyond the angry base of support and win-over the Big Fat Middle. This coalition of independents, Reagan Republicans, fiscal conservatives, right-leaning moderate voters are not going to get behind Trump. They might even vote for Biden. Not because they embrace his liberal policies; but because they will cast a vote against Trump.
The aspirational GOP candidates, including some exceedingly capable governors, would bury Joe Biden. That's a fact. Learn more on this topic here.
Of course nobody listens to me.
Saturday, July 29, 2023
Quitting Time
An Intervention
I'm not sure what this snake was thinking but it clearly bit-off more than it could chew. There is no way a common garter snake is going to swallow a whole toad for lunch. A leg maybe?
If one of our resident five foot long fox snakes attempted this I can assure you the toad loses. In any event, Jill intervened and released the toad from the snake's grip.
Buddha would approve.
Friday, July 28, 2023
Friday Music
Released in 1983 by ZZ Top this is the second single from their eighth studio album Eliminator.
This is a really nice pairing.
Turn-up the volume for John Fogerty and Billy Gibbons performing Sharp Dressed Man.....
Thursday, July 27, 2023
July Night Sky
In a warm-up to the Perseid meteor shower that gets its game on in August there is the Delta Aquarids meteor shower.
This show began mid-July and will be peaking July 28 and 29.
To be fair, this show is more favorably viewed in the southern hemisphere or the southern reaches of the northern hemisphere - nevertheless if you get out of bed to pee several hours before sunrise, go outside and take a few moments to cast your gaze to the southern sky.
Locate the constellation Aquarius as this is the radiant from which these meteors appear.
photo - Wikimedia Commons |
In case you care to know these meteors are the result of debris from Comet 96P Machholz - a comet that crosses our path every five years.
Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Night Sky
Making Hay
Tuesday, July 25, 2023
Noteable Quoteable
Correct each other in private.
Defend each other in public.
And keep your grievances off Face Book.
- Unknown
Monday, July 24, 2023
Book Club
There is a universal truth about authoritarians.
They are incapable of succeeding independently. They do not take power; they are given it.
Successful authoritarians always adopt a preexisting political party.
And establishment parties are populated by political figures who may outwardly profess disdain for aspiring authoritarians yet will eventually bend to their will.
In the beginning they will oppose him.
Then they accept him.
They share a belief that they can manage him.
They find themselves defending him.
At the end they become his sycophants.
If you are looking for an old, but good read get yourself a copy of Diary of a Man in Despair.
Written between 1936 and 1944 by a conservative German who struggles to do the right thing all the while living in a depraved world. It is prophetic.
He died at Dachau in 1945.
Sunday, July 23, 2023
Playing The Victim Card
As an occasional and casual fan of country music I'm having a chuckle over all the valuable bandwidth consumed by the feigned outrage over Jason Aldean's new song. I include outrage from both sides of the divide. Umbrage over the song and outrage in response to Aldean and his defenders perceived victimization.
Is this serious?
If you don't care for the song, don't torture yourself listening to it. And precisely where and how does a song inspire victimization?
Frankly, as far as country songs go this one isn't particularly inspiring and in my view quite formulaic. I was speculating this morning if it was composed by a focus group and not a serious country artist. A song to provoke feigned outrage among a divided populace. Adroitly-playing the victimhood card. My, oh, my. Just like performative politics nowadays.
Imagine that; insulted victims to boost downloads instead of talent and an aspirational message. Nope. That's just too conspiratorial.
Anyway, it's an interesting social experiment to observe people being led about by the nose over a very average piece of music. Alas, country music nowadays is mostly unexceptional. There are standouts, of course; but on a historical scale, most current artists are too dilute to hold a place in history.
This is the Gold Standard of country music.....
Behavioral Finance
A comprehensive financial plan should incorporate all of the Big Five Personality Traits as they influence the scope and direction of the planning process.
Commonly studied by psychologists and scholars of behavioral finance these trails include: Neuroticism, conscientiousness, agreeableness, extraversion and openness.
According to research appearing in Financial Planning Review it is conscientiousness that is by-far the most vital personality trait when it comes to wealth accumulation.
Conscientiousness is highly correlated with an individual's preference for following rules, working hard, carefully organizing tasks and following-thru to see that tasks are completed in a timely fashion.
Accounting for educational attainment and other cognitive variables this trait is also most consistently associated with work and career success.
According to researchers Fenton-O'Creevy and Furnham this trait is also highly correlated with effective financial planning.
You can learn more about this subject here.
Saturday, July 22, 2023
July Night Sky
A common visitor to the winter night sky where I live the constellation Orion (the hunter) is also know as The Ghost Of The Shimmering Summer Dawn. A name taken from a poem by Sophia Prentice in 1924.
Late in July Orion returns ascending in the east before sunrise. He is positioned on his side with the distinctive stars of his belt pointing up.
Orion's shift from a predawn appearance to the evening sky is explained by the shift westward of all the stars as a consequence of our orbit around the sun. Fun factoid: Earth's orbit causes all the stars to rise approximately four minutes earlier each day.
So, if you have to get-up to pee look for Orion in the east before sunrise.
Fingers-crossed for clear skies.
Friday, July 21, 2023
Friday Music
Thursday, July 20, 2023
Wild Flower
Monday was 68 days from our prescribed burn and beginning Sunday this was blooming.
Silphium laciniatum - the Compass plant - is a member of the aster family and a perennial native.
It's the
tallest of plants found in the North American prairie and also happen
to have the longest of tap roots - essentially making it impossible
to transplant.
The name of this flowering plant
derives from the leaves which - upon close examination - line-up
north south in order to maximize exposure to available sunlight.
The
finches love the seeds produced by the flowers and if you collect the
sap you can make a suitable chewing gum from it.
During the recent drought conditions our seven acres of pollinator habitat has thrived. Warm season native plants with deep root systems are singularly adapted to this. If it is possible to have a forest of compass plant that would be us.
Wednesday, July 19, 2023
A Half Dozen
A selection of critters from the trail camera trap line.
Coyote
Long beard gobblers
Curious doe
Raccoon
Velvet buck
And a possum
Tuesday, July 18, 2023
The Garden Chronicles
Each year I try something new in the garden.
2023 brings the Philadelphia White Box Radish.
An heirloom radish introduced in 1888 by Johnson and Stokes of Philadelphia, PA.
A dependable variety for cultivation in a garden bed or fording in boxes. It has a spicy zip and is well-suited for salads and stir fries.
I also am raising leeks this year so stay-tuned.....
Monday, July 17, 2023
July Night Sky
Tonight heralds a New Moon which means that a dark sky is on tap.
For those of us in the northern hemisphere a recently discovered comet can be found high in the sky in the constellation Ursa Minor (the Little Dipper).
Comet C/2023 E1 (ATLAS) was discovered in March of this year by the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). Funded by NASA and operated by the University of Hawaii an array of four telescopes located in Hawaii, Chile and South Africa keep watch on the sky for near-earth objects that may present a threat to us earthlings.
The comet reached perihelion (closest to the sun) on July 1 and will reach its closest point to earth on August 18, but will have dimmed by then. Don't expect a bright object with a tail as it will likely have the appearance of a greenish smudge.
The comet will reach its maximum brightness this evening and you should be able to view it with a telescope or a pair of binoculars.
It will be around for a while, and should offer some sky watching opportunities this summer.
Sunday, July 16, 2023
The Garden Chronicles
I have two hills of pumpkins.
The Kakai have blossomed!
Rain overnight. In spite of the drought pumpkins spring eternal.....
NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, was created in 1949 by 12 countries to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.
Commonly recognized as deterrance.
To this day NATO's stated purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.
The Secretary General concluded the NATO Summit held in Vilnius, Lithuania on Wednesday of last week. And following the requisite amount of drama President Erdogan of Turkey relented and agreed to Sweden's application for membership to proceed. Holdout nation Hungary also followed.
This is interesting on several levels. First, since the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO has more than doubled in size to include 28 European countries, Canada and the U.S. Finland came on board in April of this year with Sweden now to follow.
Second, it is possible that Vladimir Putin calculated his unprovoked invasion of neighboring Ukraine would lead to the fracturing of NATO. Nope. Previously non-aligned and neutral Finland and Sweden requested, hand-in-hand, membership in the alliance. As a consequence, NATO has expanded and strengthened as an outcome of Putin's (not the Russian people's) aggression.
And since the last presidential election we've learned that the former guy was going to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from the NATO alliance in his second term of office. Inasmuch as he may win the 2024 election there is bipartisan legislation that will likely come to a floor vote before then which would nullify executive action of this nature; instead, requiring an act of Congress or the Senate to exit the alliance.
War and elections have consequences.
Anyway, Article 5, which stands at the heart of NATO's founding says that an attack on any member of the alliance would be viewed as an attack on all. If such an attack does occur, each member will take measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security. Article 5 has been invoked only once; following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. NATO came to America's aid.
It's good to have friends.
NATO is not a monolithic organization and its membership doesn't always agree. Such is the nature of a diverse membership of democracies, nonaligned nations and tolerance for differing points of view.
On balance I believe that NATO has been good for Europe and good for Canada and the U.S. It has been good for our economies and good for our defense forces. It has been good for the world.
For sure there is a minority that will take issue with my view; nevertheless, in a world with dangerously bad actors, in my opinion for more than 70 years NATO has been a force for good and it's better to be aligned with the good guys instead of the bad guys.
Saturday, July 15, 2023
July Night Sky
There's a New Moon on tap Monday.
The evenings before and after July 17 offer you stargazers the opportunity to observe the night sky without the interference of moon glow spoiling your view. Better yet, if you can get out into the countryside and away from the light pollution of the city skyline.
Fingers-crossed for clear, cloudless skies. Unlike February you won't freeze your tukus-off but don't forget your bug spray!
Friday, July 14, 2023
Friday Music
Composed by Bruce Springsteen this song was recorded in his home studio. Thrill Hill East, early in 1987 along with a couple of members of the E Street Band.
This is the official video released in 1987. It includes live concert excerpts interspersed with outtakes of couples attending his Tunnel of Love tour. Springsteen expressly included images of gay and lesbian couples acknowledging the diversity of his fan base. Imagine the outrage this would draw today from certain constituencies.
Anyway, I include this tune among those in my top ten list in acknowledgment of a time in my life between relationships.
Tougher Than The Rest...
Thursday, July 13, 2023
Pea Picker
Mis en place....
Hot fire on a gas range...
It all comes together quickly....
There is a double spoonful of basmati rice beneath all of that goodness...
Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Blockade
Meanwhile, required to vacate the position after four years, Gen. David Berger stepped down as US Marine Corps commandant this week. The Marine Corps will be without a Senate-confirmed leader for the first time in more than a hundred years as a consequence of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL).
Gen. Eric Smith has been nominated to fill the position, but will serve in an acting capacity as his confirmation has been held-up by the junior senator's pledge to hold-up all senior military confirmations and promotions that require Senate consent until such time as a Biden rule allowing travel reimbursement for service members traveling across state lines seeking abortions and related care is rescinded.
Senator Tuberville's obstructionism has blocked 250 nominations and effectively jammed-up some planned retirements in the ranks.
This could also jam-up the nomination of Air Force Gen. CQ Brown to replace Gen. Mark Milley who steps down as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in September of this year.
Tuberville's actions have unsurprisingly been a source of frustration to White House and defense officials and drawn the ire of of the national security community and members of his own party. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell had this to say a couple of months ago: No, I do not support putting a hold on Military nominations.
This arm chair general has ascertained from reliable sources that none of this has impacted military readiness in a meaningful fashion. Nevertheless, this is evidence of flaws and vulnerabilities in our institutions where one individual can put a stop to hundreds of critical national security positions. Tuberville is entitled to his views on abortion yet I struggle to see a connection to filling key defense and security positions.
Obstructionism is not new to the political landscape in Washington.
Watch him double-down on white nationalists in the military at the 7:40 mark. The Senator from Alabama is an interesting dude.....
White Nationalism
the belief, theory, or doctrine that white people are inherently superior to people from all other racial and ethnic groups, and that in order to preserve their white, European, and Christian cultural identities, they need or deserve a segregated geographical area, preferential treatment, and special legal protections.
Tuesday, July 11, 2023
Foxglove
Fifty-six days post burn there is this - one of the first species to make an appearance in very large quantities.Acres and acres of this blooming beauty - smooth penstemon - Penstemon digitalis.
This flower materializes quite suddenly (seemingly out of nowhere) during late spring or early summer for about a month and then it’s gone. A showy member of the snapdragon family and native to the prairie it is commonly called beardtongue or foxglove.
Native Americans and folk-healers have made use of this plant for medicinal purposes for both people and animals. Long-tongued bees, including honeybees, bumblebees, miner bees, butterflies, Sphinx moths, and hummingbirds favor this plant.
The name beardtongue is a consequence of the hairy reproductive parts
found within the flower.
Monday, July 10, 2023
Quote Of The Day
Human beings are never going to be perfect, Roy.
The best we can do is keep asking for help and accepting it when you can.
And if you keep doing that, you'll always be moving towards better.
- Higgins (Ted Lasso - Apple TV+)
Sunday, July 9, 2023
Belgian Days
It's Belgian Days this weekend,
Preparations began almost a year ago and really ramped-up this last week. Now we're in the thick of it with the finale scheduled for today.
I'll publish a recap post when I have time. For now there us this.
The national flag of Belgium is a tricolor consisting of three equal vertical bands displaying the national colors of Belgium: black, yellow, and red. The colors were taken from the coat of arms of the Duchy of Brabant, and the vertical design may be based on the flag of France.
Neither of us share a single drop of Belgian blood; nevertheless to honor our neighbors with Belgian ancestry this time of year we fly the Belgian colors.
Saturday, July 8, 2023
Sign of Good Luck?
A modicum of much-needed rain fell this afternoon before 6 PM.
Not enough to wash-out the Belgian Days celebration at Brussels Town Park; but just enough to deliver this ephemeral visage.
There is plenty of science about how rainbows bend light by means of refraction; some say the rainbows are auspicious and a sign of good luck.
False Indigo
Meet Baptisia australis - Blue False Indigo.
A member of the pea family it is characterized by large clover-like leaves (up to 3 inch); leaflets wider toward the tips.
Flowers are large (1 inch), dark blue or violet, in erect racemes. Grows to three to five feet tall.
Native to southern Indiana, west Virginia, Pennsylvania south.
This is growing in our yard so it has obviously been introduced.
Can locate the bumble bee?
Friday, July 7, 2023
Friday Music
Composed by Van Morrison and featured on his 1970 album Moondance. It has been described as a song of such elemental beauty and grace as to stand as arguably the quintessential Morrison moment. The ethereal nature of the lyrics is pure prose to me and include it as one of my all-time favorites. No wonder why Rolling Stone magazine includes this piece among the 500 Greatest Songs of All Time.
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Time and Distance
At 3:06 PM today (CST) Earth will reach the point in its orbit when it's farthest from the sun. In a sense, it's like our planet will be at the top of a gravitational hill and will then begin to fall toward the sun until January 2, 2024, when it will reach its closest point.
This also brings us to another Word of the Day. Astronomers call this phenomenon aphelion.
At aphelion our home planet will be 94,506,364 miles (152,093,251 km) away from the sun. That is more than 3 million miles further away than when earth is closest - known as perihelion. The actual distance varies a bit year-over-year.
Coincidentally, average temperature of Earth at aphelion is about 4o F (2.3o C) higher than it is at perihelion. Earth is actually warmer when we're farther from the Sun!
Wednesday, July 5, 2023
Update From The Oriole Ranch