The Big Fat Middle

So, it would appear to this blogger's eyes that Donald Trump will be the presumptive GOP candidate for president in 2024.  His polling is strong, his base of support solid, there is not another candidate even close and with each and every indictment his base is further energized and he reaps buckets of cash fundraising off the news.

Trump is inevitable.  And there is a chance he could win.  (I'll get to that at the end.)

Which, for the record, doesn't scare me.  When I became aware of Mr. Trump 35 or more years ago I figured him for something of a con-man from Queens.  You could say I was a Never Trumper before it was a thing.  

As much as I considered him a shady person it never rose to the level of hate.  Let there be no misunderstanding; I thrived under his presidency.  Of course I considered Bill Clinton a misogynist pig; and I thrived under his administration.  So humor me while I lay out the the case for the reelection or defeat of Donald Trump.  I'll do my best to cover the good, the bad and the ugly.

After-all, the former guy has a record to run on.

We have a porous border.  In an official 2018 report, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reported to the administration that they had an insufficient pipeline of candidates to fill existing vacancies. Trump did nothing.  Separating children (as young as five months old) from their mothers turned the border into a flashpoint.  Trump's public support took a hit. Trump did succeed in restricting asylum applications and refugee entrants.  Comprehensive immigration reform was never pursued or signed into law.  

Only about 80 miles of new barrier was constructed during Trump's term of office.  This included 47 miles of primary fencing and 33 miles of secondary fence.  Mexico did not contribute a single peso to build it.  It is estimated that it would require an investment of $25 billion for a Great Wall. The problem wasn't fixed and it persists to today. 

It should come as no surprise that following his 2016 campaign Trump wanted to come down hard on illegal immigration on our southern border.  (See border wall failure above.)  Curiously, he also imposed tighter restrictions on the legal immigration of highly skilled and desirable workers needed to perform useful stuff like contributing to domestic corporate growth and profitability, our general economic health and strengthen Social Security and Medicare.  

Trump's DHS imposed restrictions on the H-1B visa program insisting that these workers were taking jobs from Americans.  The administration did everything it could to meddle with the need of American business to fill positions that could not be met with applicants from our domestic workforce.  As with ICE's recruiting challenges so it was with corporate America.  Under Trump, H-1B visas were reduced by a third.  Not only were engineers, doctors, technical and other skilled workers denied entry but important seasonal labor that feeds the local tourism engine where I live was restricted as well.  As with tariffs, this was big government picking winners and losers.

Trump promised that he would repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with something Beautiful.  Nope.  More than seven million Americans lost their Health insurance during his term of office.  He even had the temerity to request the SCOTUS to strike down the ACA in the midst of a pandemic with no plan for a replacement. 

 Our trade deficit ballooned to its largest level in history under Trump.  When Biden took office we were purchasing more goods and services from other countries than we sold to the rest of the world.  One of Trump's signature policy actions was the imposition of tariffs - a blunt instrument which caused significant harm to our economy. 

Trump boasted about all the money China contributed to our coffers from tariffs on imported goods.  The truth is his trade war cost domestic consumers $34 billion annually in increased prices.  Tariff are almost universally paid by consumers; it is an indirect tax.  Taxpayers also paid an additional $22 billion annually in agriculture subsidies to farmers hurt by tariffs.  And  an estimated 300,000 domestic jobs were lost.  Anecdotally, I paid an estimated $800 markup for a new Kawasaki Mule as a consequence of Trump steel tariffs.  Telling me China is paying the tariffs is a lie.  No truth in advertising.

Donald Trump declared that he would eliminate the federal deficit.  The truth is that it grew by 60% under his watch ballooning to a record new level.  More than a whopping $8 trillion accounting for 20% of the total debt by the time he left office.   

Trump promised me and you and everyone else that our tax burden would be reduced.  In-fact he made the claim that:  Only wealthy people like me can afford to pay more.  Alas, by the time 2027 rolls-around, 83% of his tax cuts will go to the top 1% of individual taxpayers.  Yeah, we can argue that if you pay more you get a larger cut.  Nevertheless, just like half of all Americans my income taxes rose under his watch.  Don't believe it?  Talk to my CPA.  The good news is that corporations spent their tax cut savings to repurchase and retire massive amounts of stock.  Stock buybacks boost share prices.  So if you're a retired guy like me your retirement savings get a positive bump.  On balance, I chalk this up to a success as my invested net worth grew as a result.  And I scored a ginormous bonus buying opportunity under COVID turning my income tax loss into a capital gains tax gain.

Speaking of COVID, if there ever was a case to be made for willful blindness this was it.

Created following the Ebola Virus outbreak, and part of the National Security Council, Trump's first misstep was disbanding the Global Health Security Team in May of 2018.  Trump seriously believed we'd never have a pandemic.  Back when I had a day job, large loss avoidance was always at the top of the list of objectives but nobody asked me about this. During his final year in office hundreds of thousands of our countrymen died from a pandemic that Donald Trump deliberately downplayed to the public.  As a consequence, the US has accounted for more than 25% of the global COVID deaths with only 4% of the population.  

Take a moment to reflect upon this grim figure.  

When the President spoke, many times chaos followed.  He declared that the pandemic was under control or it was not serious.  He promised everyone would be tested when factually there were few tests available.  He claimed a vaccine was just around the corner when it was still 12-18 months away.  There was hydroxychloquine, bleach, light treatments and magical wishful thinking. It was a cluster.

The bottom line is China is to blame for the outbreak and spread of coronavirus.  Trump gets credit for Operation Warp Speed and fast-tracking vaccine development.  He should have talked it-up in his reelection campaign.  (But nobody listens to me).  Nevertheless, the buck stops with the White House for dithering and finally responding with a delayed and disjointed federal response.  Inept messaging resulted in a needless loss of lives, record small business bankruptcies and millions of students falling behind.  A steady hand counts for a lot.

Donald Trump also had an endearing quality that always puzzled me.  He almost always confused the investment markets with the general economy and conflated his influence on the stock market.  I fondly recall that he stated at one point:  If you do not reelect me you will all become poor.  The implication being that, as with magic, his Midas Touch was responsible for rising equity prices and portfolio returns.  Never confuse markets and policy with magic.  

I always figured that this conflation would get him in trouble at some point so I gave my team at the former day job a heads-up.  I asked them to prepare a short list of stocks with solid earnings and good prospects that might be temporarily damaged by Trump's glib and loose talk.  And wouldn't you know it; as the COVID storm gathered strength Trump now has the unique distinction of giving a national address meant to calm a worried nation that ended-up tanking the markets.  I saw that one coming and I thank DJT for the buying opportunity.

Loose lips sink both ships and markets.

In my opinion Trump's largest failure was the culmination of events on January 6, 2021 when a mob of his supporters rioted, stormed and occupied the US Capitol.  This can be laid at the feet of a president who demonized the media, promoted lies, questioned the authority of the courts and rejected the results of a free and fair election.  

I don't care if you're breaking the glass of a neighborhood pawn shop or the windows and doors of the US Capitol.  Inciting violence under any and all circumstances is wrong.  For me the President's incitement and instigation of lawlessness and violence was a Bridge Too Far.

For many this was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Summation.

Donald Trump was a consequential US President; a change agent.  His successes included cutting the corporate tax rate and reducing burdensome regulations; all good for the economy.  He can be credited with pushing back against a brutally repressive China and providing defensive arms to Ukraine.  He negotiated a new trade pact with our friendly neighbors to the north and south and pushed Congress to approve it.  He played a valuable role in facilitating the normalization of ties between Israel and several Arab neighbors.

Trump deserves credit for reform of the criminal justice system following passage of the First Step Act as a mechanism to end mass incarcerations.  He set-back the ISIS caliphate and rubbed-out Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.  He also created the Space Force; the first new military service branch since 1947 when the Air Force was formed

Trump's most lasting impact will be his reshaping of the federal judiciary.  Three supreme court justices, 226 judges on the federal bench including 54 judges on the 13 US circuit courts.  It is the courts that always have the final say in our political system setting policy and precedent for decades to come.

In closing, I am convinced that of all the potential match-ups there are for the 2024 White House Joe Biden is the sole Democrat capable of defeating Donald Trump.  There is little popular support for this octogenarian choice; but unless I am famously wrong again it is what it is.

To my Trump friends, take heed.  If you run on a campaign platform solely on retribution and revenge you do so at your own peril.  To win a general election you need to get beyond the angry base of support and win-over the Big Fat Middle.  This coalition of independents, Reagan Republicans,  fiscal conservatives, right-leaning moderate voters are not going to get behind Trump.  They might even vote for Biden.  Not because they embrace his liberal policies; but because they will cast a vote against Trump.

The aspirational GOP candidates, including some exceedingly capable governors, would bury Joe Biden.  That's a fact.  Learn more on this topic here.

Of course nobody listens to me.