Independents Day

A Gallup Poll published only a few weeks ago served as evidence that those who identify politically as independents  make up the largest contingent of voters in the country.  A whopping 43%, tying a record previously set in 2014.

The number of individuals who identify as Democrats set a new record low of 27% - coincidentally the same as the number of respondents who identify as Republicans.  

The decline in Democratic identification has been dropping a point for each of the last three years.  The people at Gallup surmise that this decline is a consequence of President Biden's low job approval rating.

The rise in number of those identifying as independents can be traced to 1991.  Having previously been the largest political group this rise has largely been at the expense of Democrats.  

This trend has given Republicans a small bump as Gallup learned from survey respondents that when asked, independents in 2023 indicated they were slightly more likely to lean Republican.

When asked to describe their views on a spectrum ranging from liberal to conservative - last year 25% described their political views as liberal, 36% as moderate and 36% as conservative.  These findings have largely remained unchanged for a decade.   

Taking a longer view, those who describe their views as conservative and moderate have shrunk over the last two decades; while those with self-described liberal views have risen from a low of 20% over the same time period.  

You're probably scratching your head and wondering if this has any impact on how things will play-out in the 2024 primaries and general election.  I know I'm curious.  However, not being a pollster I suppose I'm going to have to wait and see.  Exiled from the GOP to wander in the desert with my brethren it likely has to have some implications; exactly how this will manifest is not known.  Again, the Gallup folks suggest that this might not be a positive for Democrats and that independents who lean Republican may give the GOP a slight edge.  Personally, I think (wild-ass guess) Donald Trump is going to be the X Factor.  The ultimate trump card (pun intended).

You can perform a deep dive into the data over here at Gallup.  Meanwhile, I'm certainly not feeling any love from anybody.  Funny that.