A Six-Pack of Republicans

This is from an article published in August of last year; so it's dated.  Feel free to ignore any reference to the trials and tribulations of the Ron DeSantis campaign for the GOP nomination for president.  

Nonetheless, on the heels of almost nine years of fealty and obeisance to Donald Trump, only a few would argue that the party is still defined by Ronald Reagan’s famous three-legged stool of the religious right, fiscal conservatives and neoconservative hawks.

But if the Republican Party is no longer in Reagan’s image, it’s not necessarily a populist-conservative MAGA monolith, either.

Last July's New York Times/Siena College poll found that only 37 percent of Republicans count as part of Mr. Trump’s loyal base.

And while majorities of Republicans side with Mr. Trump on almost every issue, those majorities are often quite slim: Around 40 percent of Republican-leaning voters support aid to Ukraine, support comprehensive immigration reform or say abortion should be mostly or always legal.

But if the Republican Party isn’t quite a MAGA monolith, what is it?  To better understand the party today, the Times split Republican and Republican-leaning voters into groups, based on the results of the Times/Siena Poll.  The groups were defined by how Republican-leaning voters felt on the issues — not how they felt about Mr. Trump.

The results depict a Republican coalition that consists of six groups:

The Moderate Establishment (14%). Highly educated, affluent, socially moderate or even liberal and often outright Never Trump.

The Traditional Conservatives (26%). Old-fashioned economic and social conservatives who oppose abortion and prefer corporate tax cuts to new tariffs. They don’t love Mr. Trump, but they do support him.

The Right Wing (26%). They watch Fox News and Newsmax. They’re “very conservative.” They’re disproportionately evangelical. They believe America is on the brink of catastrophe. And they love Mr. Trump more than any other group.

The Blue Collar Populists (12%). They’re mostly Northern, socially moderate, economic populists who hold deeply conservative views on race and immigration. Not only do they back Mr. Trump, but he himself probably counted as one a decade ago.

The Libertarian Conservatives (14%). These disproportionately Western and Midwestern conservatives value small government. They’re relatively socially moderate and isolationist, and they’re on the lower end of Trump support compared with other groups.

The Newcomers (8%). They don’t look like Republicans. They’re young, diverse and moderate. But these disaffected voters like Democrats and the “woke” left even less.

Mr. Trump’s dominance of the Republican Party is founded on an alliance between the Right Wing and Blue Collar Populists, two groups that combine to represent nearly 40 percent of Republicans — and about two-thirds of Mr. Trump’s MAGA base of seemingly unshakable support. 

The bottom line is that (in case anyone cares any more) the growing numbers of center-right voters, Reagan Republicans and independents still retain some clout in a general election.  The Big Fat Middle.  I'll be watching to see if the same polling is published in a couple of months.

Complete article here.  It's an academic read if you're not blocked by a pay wall.  Stay-tuned.....