The House passed a bill in a bipartisan vote to avert a default on the nation's debt and set spending limits.
Kudos to my Congressman, Mike Gallagher, who voted to support the bill. I support normal.
On to the Senate....
Door County, Wisconsin, USA - Where the strong survive and the weak are killed and eaten.
The House passed a bill in a bipartisan vote to avert a default on the nation's debt and set spending limits.
Kudos to my Congressman, Mike Gallagher, who voted to support the bill. I support normal.
On to the Senate....
Leave the windows on the old pump house open to air it out at your own peril.
Because mama robin is going to build her nest in a basket on a shelf.
It's a house, in a house, in a house.
Smart bird the American Robin is.......
WI.DNR.Gov |
Good morning.
Another day has dawned and as of last evening it would appear that we have a debt ceiling agreement. To be sure, the agreement to avert a default now heads to congress; where its passage is clearly uncertain. Speaker McCarthy continues to be bedeviled by troublemakers who may revolt. As a consequence the Kabuki Dance and its theatrical drama persists.
I'd like to share some insights from Peter Zeihan, geopolitical analyst and author. I follow him closely in my retirement journey to better understand the impacts of financial, cultural, political and military events.
Zeihan's observations on the debt ceiling generally jibe with my own. Namely, after threatening a sufficient amount a unwarranted self-sabotage an agreement will materialize at the last moment. Fingers-crossed that we've correctly predicted the outcome.
The US is one of the few nations that imposes a hard cap on public borrowing. And this is not the first time a political party has sought to weaponize a threat of default as a means of extracting budget concessions that should belong in appropriations negotiations. Unless the system changes it won't be the last.
For the present, the Democrats have accused their Republican colleagues of cynically using the mechanism to damage Biden going into the 2024 election cycle and to slash spending that they would likely struggle to pass into law.
Of course, when under recent Republican rule, total debt under Trump increased by $8 trillion. That is a whopping one-fifth (20%) of the entire total. In all fairness, there was a COVID response back then and $4 trillion was added by Biden so there is plenty of blame to go around.
This is all just political theater; but it has gone a bit further than usual. What I wanted to share is that Zeihan has pulled the lamp cord on my light bulb casting more light and added clarity for independents, center-right individuals and conservatives who have found themselves wandering in exile for the last seven or so years.
Zeihan reminds his viewers that we're going thru a period of political transition - something that occurs every couple of decades. And when that happens the factions that make up the parties move around. They jump ship, maybe they become swing voters or they might switch sides. The stage that we're at in the moment is one where the fiscal and business conservatives have been banished from the Republican coalition while at the same time the MAGA movement has attracted significant union and populist support from the Democrats. It is messy.
Between the unions, fiscal and business conservatives all transitioning, when it comes to the debt ceiling there's no one around to knock some sense into other fringe groups more willing to play with matches.
So, there you have it. When I tell you: It isn't my daddy's Republican party anymore. It is because it isn't. The GOP has been undergoing fundamental changes since the onset of the tea party movement. Donald Trump's trouncing of the Republican establishment in 2016 and his continued popularity among his base exposes the weakness of the laissez-faire economic approach known as Reaganism. Reagan Republicans and Neo-conservatives who believe in limited government, free trade, fiscal responsibility, a muscular foreign policy and staying out of the people's personal lives need not apply. Cancel your Chamber of Commerce membership. You are persona non grata.
Being an old guy and set in my ways my cohort of like-minded individuals has little tolerance for performative politics. So if you want to have a meltdown over a rainbow windsock on sale at Target that's your business. It isn't going to add to the prosperity of my country, security domestically or abroad, secure the border or fix the systemic problems of our shaky entitlement programs. It's basically a bullshit party platform.
While it sucks periodically to reflect on having outgrown my usefulness I'm satisfied to watch from the sidelines until the wheels come off. I may be obsolete, but this old guy isn't gonna die on Culture War Hill. I'm gonna enjoy the show.
The gist of what I outline above starts just before the two minute mark. But watch the entire thing. It's a short four minutes. Thanks, Peter for helping me navigate this. And a Hat Tip to Braumeister for the initial recommendation many years ago.....
Dressed as a Canadian Mountie, Harrison was in the chorus for The Lumberjack Song.
No mention was made of Harrison's appearance although a few in the audience recognized him.
The next night, Harry Nilsson showed up to perform the same feat but with disastrous results. He fell into the audience and broke his arm.
Here's a performance of The
Lumberjack Song performed at the "Concert for George".....
As per usual there are a couple of oriole feeders out. And the one on the west side of the porch has a trail camera mounted on the post opposite of its location.
Male and female Baltimore Orioles, Indigo Buntings and a red-bellied woodpecker for good measure.
Some recent photos of feeder action for your viewing pleasure...
They're done now; but last week was a delightful week for spring bloomers.
The lilacs and apple trees in the yard were really flaunting their stuff...
A day in the Big Apple reduced to 55 seconds.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) from Apple.
There is a conjunction on tap this month that is worth your while if the skies are clear.
And you don't have to stay-up until the wee hours to catch it!
The next couple of evenings are going to feature a trio of our favorite Solar System heavenly bodies - Mars, Venus and a waxing crescent Moon.
Because the moon will only be four days old it won't wash-out the planets Mars and Venus. There will be additional stars and constellations in the background too.
All of this should be visible to the naked eye although binoculars will be helpful and a telescope won't hurt if one is available.
Fingers-crossed for clear skies....
The red oak tree in the yard was a bare root stick when planted twenty years ago. In the intervening decades it has grown into a handsome pre-adolescent.
The other day I noticed that the tree had large numbers of catkins hanging from the prior year’s growth as the leaves of 2023 emerged from their buds.
Yes oak have blossoms too.
These are one of the flowers that are produced by the tree – the male
flower to be certain. This species is monoecious – meaning that it produces both
male and female flowers. Each male flower typically has six stamens (ranges from
two to twelve) which have long spreading white filaments when the flower fully
opens. The female flowers are more
reddish-green and appear as small slender spikes in the axils of new growth.
I gave this tree a thorough examination and could find no flowers of the female persuasion. Not surprising inasmuch as they are not visible to the naked eye. It is from the female flower that acorns are formed. Red oaks mature sufficiently at twenty or more years of age before they are capable of producing acorns. Large numbers of acorns won't materialize until the tree is fifty years of age. Which makes sense for a tree that will live many hundreds of years.
This tree has been producing acorns for about 5-6 years.
Overachiever.....
Sure, you're probably thinking I'm going to launch into another rant or diatribe about the 800 pound gorilla sitting in our respective sitting rooms. No rant this morning. Just a few factual observations; the first of which is that Trump and now Biden have avoided addressing the primary cause of our budget woes.
When I tapped-out this post a couple of days ago It was basically impossible to read, view or listen to any media outlet without a reminder about the debt ceiling debate.
To be clear, this is a scary subject inasmuch as while our country has sufficient income to pay the interest on our debt (the bondholders) we also have a $1.5 trillion shortfall in 2023 to pay for all of the previous spending authorized by all the previous congresses and signed into law by all of the previous presidents. From a purely technical perspective this isn't about a budget - this is about paying for the spending that we're already on the hook for.
That said, there is now a parallel discussion about the budget; which is a positive development. Appropriations is where this discussion belongs; the debt ceiling is about paying for past obligations. Yet make no mistake, unless the ceiling is raised we will have insufficient funds to pay for all of our lawful obligations including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Between you and me I don't believe there will be a default. Anyone holding an IOU (government bond) will collect their interest on time and congress and the president will agree on some sort of scheme to address discretionary spending. There is a high probability congress will convene some sort of Blue Ribbon Committee to study a weight loss plan for the 800 pound gorilla. Of course I am notoriously famous for my bad predictions and while Kevin McCarthy is legislating he is bedeviled by a small number of crackpot members of his caucus who love outrageous tweets, reckless and inflammatory rhetoric and generally performative politics. Just like the congressional nutjobs who extol the virtuousness of Vladimir Putin, they're cuckoo. Why is it that some people elected to congress spout such outrageous foolishness? Is this a mechanism to fund raise? Or a means to draw attention on cable programming? Suck all the oxygen from the room? Childish attention-getting behavior? It's stupid, I'll never understand it and I digress.
We have a debt limit problem inasmuch as we continually borrow to make ends meet. And the fundamental driver of our spending has been the growth of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Insufficiently funded, this leads to borrowing. This is the 800 pound gorilla. Does it strike you as strange that neither Trump or Biden could be bothered to acknowledge this? You know who has talked about it? Governor DeSantis. But I digress.
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If you do the math the issue in our living room is we are presently borrowing to pay for an 800 pound gorilla today that could grow to a 1200 pound gorilla in the years to come. Creating a King Kong is not sustainable.
So, instead of fabricating a crisis and potential self-inflicted wound over paying for stuff that all of the foregoing congresses and presidents have passed into law we need to be holding a serious discussion about how we reform the largest programs in the budget. Truthfully, the very best opportunity to reform our entitlement programs is when we enjoy rare periods of divided government. Like right now.
No amount of shrinking the IRS, defunding the FBI, or clawing-back of COVID relief funds is going to plug a $1.5 trillion shortfall. This is not rocket science. This is simple math.
While a handful of coconut congressional troublemakers might delight in gleefully blowing-up the economy, tanking the stock market, spiking our future borrowing costs and destroying everyone's carefully-built retirement plan with a default; I'm going to keep my eye on any serious zookeepers in congress and maybe a president who might take a stab at taming the growth of the gorilla and keep this country on a steady path of economic growth. Yes, virtually every indicator supports the notion that the economy is presently doing quite well. Let's stipulate that too much debt can kill the economy. But that is another discussion for another day.
This blogger isn't going to hold his breath over entitlement reform. As it doesn't stand a chance of happening until after the 2024 election and we know who's in-charge of congress and the white house.
Until then, it appears that we've got bullshit culture wars to fight. So, grab a cold bottle of Bud Light to assuage any festering election denial and my serious-bad predictions.
Whistling past the grave yard.
Recorded in 1972 and released in 1973 this song is the third and final one of the California Saga series of songs on the Holland album by the Beach Boys.
Composed by Al Jardine, the otherwise missing in action Brian Wilson barely contributed to the Holland production. One day Brian Wilson showed-up at the studio, asked for a microphone and began singing I'm on my way to sunny Californ-i-a. After which he abruptly walked out.
Stranger yet, at the invitation of Al Jardine, ex-band member, Bruce Johnston secretly recorded background vocals for California Saga. His contribution is uncredited.
I had the vinyl LP and always considered this album one of the groups best works - almost as good as Pet Sounds.
Turn-up the volume for: California Saga (On My Way to Sunny Californ-i-a).....
It has been a busy place around these parts. Living in rural America means that when things dry-out sufficiently the spreading of manure, tilling of fields and planting is a near non-stop endeavor. Morning, noon and night the sound of farm machinery is ubiquitous.
This armchair farmer has been busy too. My garden is basically installed.
The first sowing of radishes looks sad; a consequence of neglect while away on vacation. A second sowing has been made along with spinach, five varieties of lettuce, carrots, beets, green beans, cantaloupe, cucumbers, pumpkins and leeks.
The peas are up!
After the risk of frost has passed the sweet peppers and tomatoes will get plugged-in.
Vive le Jardin Magnifique!
Tomorrow brings us a New Moon which means the skies will be especially dark.
Hubba Hubba.
If it isn't cloudy this is a terrific time to get out and do some serious star gazing. It's not too cold, the skeets haven't hatched in any bothersome quantities and the resident frog chorale will be serenading us astronomy nerds with the songs of their spring courtship ritual.
So, grab yourself an adult beverage and set-up a comfy chair with all of the lights-off and soak it up the Milky Way and the spring constellations. Invite your sweetie to join you.
Raising a toast to clear skies and dark nights....
On October 27, 1961 combat-ready American and Soviet tanks faced off in Berlin at the U.S. Army's Checkpoint Charlie.
Tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union over access to the outpost city of Berlin and its Soviet-controlled eastern sector had increased to the point of direct military confrontation.
Cooler minds prevailed, the Soviet system eventually collapsed and today Germany has been made whole.
Communism doesn't work...
The proximity of a flock of turkeys to one or more deer doesn’t scare-off the whitetails and the presence of the deer doesn’t seem to bother the birds. By all outward appearances they seem to enjoy the company of one another. What is the explanation for this curious wildlife behavior and what seemingly might be a symbiotic relationship?
Wild turkeys are gifted with advanced eyesight. Not only do they see in Technicolor but their vision is about three times greater than that of a person with perfect 20/20 vision. Turkeys are also social animals and travel in flocks of multiple birds. Which translates into multiple eyes keeping careful watch on possible threats.
The sniffer of a whitetail deer is incredibly advanced. So much so, that I've been busted by a deer that scented my presence long before they spotted me.
There are some wildlife biologists that have posited that both of these species trusts the other's best sense for their mutually-assured security.
So it should not come as a a surprise that they'll be in the company of each other from time to time...
Drip Torch |
Last weekend Sid and Braumeister and I had an opportunity to chat it up about the immigration, asylum and migration conundrum we face. (I deliberately list these as three separate issues because they as similar but not one and the same.) Looking at this chart the operative questions that come to mind:
There's a lot of data here to unpack in this chart.
Here's a stab.
It is obvious that the number of apprehensions at the border is evidence of a surge. Immigration activists oftentimes emphasize the events in other countries (gang crime, political oppression, war) as having an outside influence on migration.
Think: PUSH.
Factors such as the strength of our economy also play a role. We enjoy a plethora of job opportunities. Door, Kewaunee, Brown and Outagamie Counties are relevant examples of this.
Think: PULL
Nevertheless, when we make it difficult for people to enter the country fewer individuals make an attempt. Donald Trump was out-front in his opposition to immigrants and immigration. A likely cause of a smaller number of apprehensions under his watch. Joe Biden did not manifest that level of hostility and that might explain a surge in apprehensions under his watch.
Think: SIGNALING
Border policy is complicated stuff. More so because I believe that both parties use it as a device to keep their respective base constituents in a near-constant state of agitation and turgid arousal. As a consequence the nuance and complexities of the subject matter get lost in the tumult of emotional misinformation
Democrats seem to avoid the difficult questions. And a lax (or seemingly welcoming) immigration attitude/policy brings with it all manner of problems. Including, but not limited to: dangerous and life-threatening travel, exploitation by smugglers all resulting in the overwhelming of social services and shelters creating dangerous conditions on both sides of the Mexican/American border.
Simultaneously, immigrants and their families have ascended the economic ladder and thrived in the US. In their book Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success by economists Abramitsky (Stanford) and Boustan (Princeton) have defused much of the fearmongering.
The bottom line is no country in its right mind should have open borders. Nevertheless, refugees with a legitimate asylum claim should have a resolution in less than an eight to fourteen year wait time Those who wish to come to this country for a job should have a legal opportunity to do so. Dreamers, born here of undocumented immigrants are already birthright citizens. (Yes, it is in the Constitution). They should have a legal path to permanence.
According to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests and deportation of undocumented immigrants increased in the second year of the Biden administration. Although numbers remained below Trump and Obama averages this crackdown has had its intended effect with apprehensions dropping. Alas, Title 42, with its pandemic restrictions, expired last Thursday and appears to have had the unintended effect of migrants interpreting this as an opportunity. Joe Biden has sent additional troops to the border for purposes of logistical support. Nevertheless, he's facing some humongous challenges with the migration influx and surge of border crossings.
It's a shit show for sure.
Like I said, this is hard stuff and requires commitment to solutions and successful outcomes from serious leaders on both sides of the aisle.
I do not believe there is sufficient critical mass to roll that boulder up hill. Yet. All of which explains the current fixation over bullshit subjects like gender dysphoria, election denial and wokeness over Bud Light.
Sheesh.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary