Wile E. Coyote sure makes the rounds.....
Up early for a trip to the Naked City and back.
Upon arrival I checked emails and what the markets might be up to.
Oh Boy Howdy!
Took only two days to erase all the post-election gains in the equity market.
Good thing I've laid-in four cases of Canadian beer to my strategic reserve.
As the Cold War began and the threat of nuclear attack became ever more real, the United States and the Kingdom of Denmark agreed that Greenland would host three American airbases to counter the nuclear threat from the Soviet Union.
Along with these airbases came a plan to create a ballistic missile base beneath Greenland’s ice sheets. Powered by a portable nuclear generator Camp Century was built to host up to 200 soldiers, provide year round accommodation, and upon expansion would be capable of storing up to 600 ballistic missiles.
The plans for the base were short lived. Built in 1959 Camp Century was abandoned in 1967 after 8 short years. When the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) abandoned the base little was done to dispose of waste materials. The ACE believed that accumulating snowfall and frigid temperatures would preserve the base and the waste left along with it.
Upon its abandonment only the reaction chamber of the nuclear generator was taken. 9,200 tons of physical waste (building infrastructure), 200,000 liters of diesel fuel, 24,000,000 liters of biological waste, and 1,200,000,000 Bq (unit of radioactivity) of radioactive material were left at Camp Century.
Aside from diesel fuel that was stored in rigid containers, which have most likely been compromised, liquid waste was stored in unlined sumps. Experts believe that the continued degradation of ice sheets will create conditions where this liquid waste will be able to permeate deeper into the ice, possibly into aquifers within the ice sheet, and even the sea.
If the waste left at Camp Century were to permeate deeper into the ice shelf it could have grave environmental consequences. Not only would it contaminate a large swath of centuries old ice that holds a plethora of scientific data, it would also pose the risk of making its way out to sea and contaminating a diverse ecosystem.
As the United States, Canada, and Denmark look to exploit the resources around Greenland, estimated to be worth tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars, any pollution coming from Camp Century could pose a risk to development.
Camp Century is also a key example as to what we can expect to see as climate change causes ice sheets to shrink and ocean levels to rise. Rising ocean levels will engulf abandoned and derelict factories, refineries, waste dumps, and other industrial infrastructure close to the sea.
The remobilization of waste at sites such as Camp Century is an occurrence that will become more widespread as a result of climate change. Policymakers will have to work at both a national and international level to shore up and remediate sites that pose a risk to the environment.
You can learn more about Camp Century and Project Iceworm here.
Enjoy this short documentary.......
Fifteen minutes ago this economic report hit my inbox:
Is the US already in recession? Probably not. But in the first quarter, real GDP is very likely to have a minus sign in front of it. Yes, a negative reading for real growth!
Even before Friday there were some troubling signs. Retail sales fell 0.9% in January while housing starts dropped 9.8%. The personal saving rate hit a new post-COVID low in the fourth quarter, existing home sales declined 4.9% for the month and, with pending home sales (contracts on existing homes) down, February will likely be weak as well. Meanwhile, manufacturing production slipped in January as did shipments of capital goods excluding aircraft and national defense.
In addition, in what could be an early sign of layoffs in the private sector from DOGE-related government spending cuts in Washington, initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 242,000, up noticeably from the 213,000 in the same week the year before.
But the real reason for a drop in real GDP was reported last Friday. The advance report on international trade in January reported a massive surge in imports for the month, led by industrial supplies. This is important because the primary way the government counts GDP is to add up all the things we’re buying – whether by consumers, businesses, or the government – and then to subtract out imports. Gross Domestic “Product” is a measure of how much the US is producing, so imports don’t count. For example, if we buy 100 mousetraps total but we imported 20 of them, then we only made 80 mousetraps in the USA.
Plugging the surge in imports into our models suggests negative growth for Q1, which was confirmed by the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now, which is tracking -2.8% growth in Q1.
But just because we expect a negative reading in Q1 doesn’t mean a recession is here. The data are volatile for many reasons. For example, unusually cold winter weather plus California fires probably held down retail sales and home building.
And it seems clear that the surge in imports in January reflects many importers front-running proposed tariffs by the Trump Administration – they’re bringing the goods in early to avoid higher tariffs later – which means the import surge should reverse sometime in the next few months. If so, the drop in Real GDP in the first quarter could be followed by a temporary surge in Real GDP growth in the second quarter.
But that still leaves the effects of what is likely to be a consistent effort by the Trump Administration to bring down government spending. We think those efforts are a positive for future long-term economic growth, but in the short-term could deliver some pain as some consumers and businesses who have grown addicted to living off government redistribution need to adapt to a more free-market environment.
With headwinds, tailwinds, and side winds hitting all at once, the data are not very clear. While we do expect the US to face an eventual recession, a negative Real GDP growth report for Q1 is not yet defining evidence. It is a reason to be concerned, but we will look elsewhere for confirmation.
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My take? There's a pile of uncertainty out there. Sure, there was definitely a whiff of spring in the air this morning when I went for a walk with my dog. But there's also a whiff of uncertainty. To be clear there is the DOGE, no budget reconciliation (yet), a looming Debt Ceiling and possible government shutdown, tariffs, Ukraine and all of the chaos emanating from the White House. Rule of Thumb - Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth = Recession. Time will tell.
Stay-tuned.....
Ronald Reagan's campaign slogan in 1980 was Let's Make America Great Again. When he ran for re-election in 1984 it was It's Morning Again in America.
There is a certain fondness for the decade of the 1980s as a period of renaissance in the United States with President Reagan and Fed Chair Paul Volcker credited with beating inflation into submission. GDP growth for the period averaged 3.3 percent, unemployment declined to less than 6 percent and the stock and bond markets closed the decade up 228 percent and 253 percent respectively.
Nevertheless, the decade of the 80s had more than its share of crises. For the financial sector there was the collapse of the savings and loan sector. Topped by more than a couple thousand bank failures. The junk bond crisis, commercial real estate crisis, Latin American debt failures and the largest single day stock market drop in history on October 19, 1987. I remember. Not so fondly, either.
Contextually, GDP growth was just as high in the 1960s, 1970s and 1990s. Unemployment was lower during those same decades. Stock market gains were more robust in the 1960s and 1990s.
But 1981 marked a watershed moment in US economic history; launching the era of the Great Releveraging. And a historic growth in both private and government debt.
A Brief History of Doom examines a series of major financial crises over the past 200 years in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, japan and China - including the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008. Author Richard Vague demonstrates how the over-accumulation of private debt does a better job than any other variable of explaining and predicting financial crisis.
Convinced that we have it within our power to break the cycle, Vague provides the tools to enable politicians, bankers and private citizens to recognize and respond to the danger signs before the crisis arrives.
Last Friday's Oval Office meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky was ostensibly intended to discuss peace negotiations concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict and to finalize a natural resources agreement. However the meeting devolved into a heated exchange with Trump accusing Zelensky of being ungrateful and risking global conflict by not pursuing peace with Russia. Vice President JD Vance criticized Zelensky for discussing policy matter publicly, leading to an abrupt end to the meeting without a signed agreement.
Naturally, the incident drew significant attention both here and abroad with numerous world leaders expressing support for Zelensky and criticizing President Trump's approach. Leaders from countries such as Canada, Norway, Lithuania, Poland, Spain and Moldova condemned Trump's remarks and reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia's invasion.
Given the contentious nature of the meeting, the choreographed timing of Vance's entry into the fray gives the appearance of not merely a theatrical performance, but a planned public setup. The first thing that came to mind was the boardroom scene of the Final Episode following another lame season of The Apprentice. I digress.
The lack of any substantive outcomes and subsequent international reaction seems to imply that the meeting had significant implications beyond just the political theater. Precisely what they are remains to be revealed. Is Trump ten moves ahead in a three dimensional chess match; or is he simply chaotic? You pick.
Nonetheless, I sort of saw it coming; like a slow moving train wreck. There were earlier signals from Secretary Hegseth, the US joining both North Korea and Russia in the vote at the United Nations (China abstained), along with Trump's parroting of Kremlin talking points. I shared with a couple of pals that I figured Trump was going to orchestrate things in a way that Putin would get the whole shebang in the end. Time will tell.
Does this suggest we've signaled to the world that we're done with 70+ years of transatlantic alliances; trading all of it for an alliance with a ruthless blood-soaked gangster like Vladimir Putin and his rapidly failing Russian state?
Or was this a garden-variety Mafiosi protection racket? Listen-up youse. Give us your raw earth minerals, or your dry-cleaning shop, izza gonna burn down, see.
Why does Trump have a hard-on for Putin?
Why isn't Putin being held to account?
Does Zelensky understand a bad deal is better than a good war?
Judging from the reaction in the cesspool called Face Book, the base is loving the red meat. Of course the base has also turned a blind eye, or loves, (you pick) the forcible abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. Similarly, supporters of Ukraine were quick to post their own collection of cut and paste unoriginal memes. Although I didn't note anyone volunteering to send their children or grandchildren over there to join the fight.
It's too soon and uncertain to know where this takes us. Although for the first time this year I watched all the Sunday morning talking heads on both sides as White House spokespeople twisted them selves in convoluted knots in an attempt to explain this is ten moves ahead three dimensional chess and not simply chaos.
What I've learned over the years is that Trump means what he says and he closed the Friday drama with this:
This is going to be great television. I will say that.
Thanks for reading and stay-tuned. Hardly a dull moment nowadays.
How much budget savings so far from Musk's Department of Government Efficiency?
As of March 2, 2025, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), let by Elon Musk, reported the cancellation of 128 contracts recently, resulting in approximately $60 million in savings. Since Its inception, DOGE reports terminating over 3,000 wasteful contracts.
However, analyses by external organizations have raised questions about these reported savings. An NPR investigation found discrepancies in DOGE's claimed savings, suggesting potential overstatements.
Additionally, data from DOGE's "Wall of Receipts" indicates that nearly 40% of the cancelled contracts are expected to yield no actual savings.
In specific instances, DOGE identified inefficiencies in software licensing. For example, the General Services Administration (GSA) reportedly held 37,000 WinZip licenses for 13,000 employees, leading to a claimed $9.6 million in savings after addressing the surplus.
While DOGE reports significant contract cancellations and some specific savings, external evaluations suggest that the actual budgetary impact may be less substantial than claimed.
Despite these efforts, the reported savings represent a fraction of DOGE's ambitious goal to cut $2 trillion in federal spending by July 4, 2026.
The notion that Elon Musk and his government efficiency apparatchiks can bring down the debt is a tall order. To be clear, I take no issue with rooting-out waste fraud and abuse; just give the chainsaw schtick and lame theatrics a rest.
At this particular moment in time our outstanding debt stands at $36 trillion (give or take). Closing a handful of government agencies and laying-off government workers makes for great theater but it isn't gonna get the job done. The savings are much, much too small to achieve the stated goal. Anybody who actually believes nibbling around the edges like this will fix the real problem is engaging in what I call magical wishful thinking.
You see, just like a household budget that has gotten out of control, fixing this problem is going to require hard work and making difficult choices.
You're probably thinking - Like what?
Like raising taxes, cutting defense spending or reforming Social Security and Medicare. Or all of the foregoing. These are unpopular choices for good reason. Nobody wants to do them. They're like going to the theater to watch a crappy production. Nobody wants to do that. The people demand good theater. Bread and circuses if you will. I might be wrong, but I happen to wonder if the current collection of clowns places a higher priority on theater and spectacle than hard work.
So, are we going to continue to be witness to the slow roll reality TV performance or get serious about fixing the real problem for the next couple of generations.
Anyone care to make a friendly wager?
click on image to enlarge
Good night for stargazing.
View south.
If you locate constellation Orion (roughly center) you will
find Mars (upper left quadrant) and Jupiter (upper right quadrant).
Glow of Green Bay bottom right corner.
What does it take to transform a 10,000-pound Douglas fir log into a sleek, hand-carved masterpiece ready to conquer the Missouri River?
Join Tom Elpel and Churchill Clark—descendant of the legendary Captain William Clark from the Lewis and Clark Expedition—as they bring history to life in the form of Belladonna Beaver.
Whether you’re a history buff, an admirer of woodworking, or simply a lover of the outdoors, this journey will leave you inspired by the enduring bond between craftsmanship and nature.
Don’t miss the final reveal and the breathtaking launch of this incredible dugout canoe!
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