| Generation Back from You | Ancestors | Cumulative Total Ancestors | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6th-great-grandparents | 510 | ||||
| 9 | 7th-great-grandparents | 1,022 | ||||
| 10 | 8th-great-grandparents | 2,046 | ||||
| 12 | 9th-great-grandparents | 4,094 |
After a long, long wait we got this home without a speeding ticket. A BEV - battery electric vehicle.
A Ford Mustang Mach E.
0 to 60 in about 3.8 seconds.....
From today there is this.
Our pup tearing it up on our daily walk.
She is responding very well to the e-collar.
With this warmer stretch of daytime temps water is puddling on the surface of the still (mostly) frozen ground.
Mud season is just around the corner.
This little red golden retriever is a rocket!
A Gallup Poll published only a few weeks ago served as evidence that those who identify politically as independents make up the largest contingent of voters in the country. A whopping 43%, tying a record previously set in 2014.
The number of individuals who identify as Democrats set a new record low of 27% - coincidentally the same as the number of respondents who identify as Republicans.
The decline in Democratic identification has been dropping a point for each of the last three years. The people at Gallup surmise that this decline is a consequence of President Biden's low job approval rating.
The rise in number of those identifying as independents can be traced to 1991. Having previously been the largest political group this rise has largely been at the expense of Democrats.
This trend has given Republicans a small bump as Gallup learned from survey respondents that when asked, independents in 2023 indicated they were slightly more likely to lean Republican.
When asked to describe their views on a spectrum ranging from liberal to conservative - last year 25% described their political views as liberal, 36% as moderate and 36% as conservative. These findings have largely remained unchanged for a decade.
Taking a longer view, those who describe their views as conservative and moderate have shrunk over the last two decades; while those with self-described liberal views have risen from a low of 20% over the same time period.
You're probably scratching your head and wondering if this has any impact on how things will play-out in the 2024 primaries and general election. I know I'm curious. However, not being a pollster I suppose I'm going to have to wait and see. Exiled from the GOP to wander in the desert with my brethren it likely has to have some implications; exactly how this will manifest is not known. Again, the Gallup folks suggest that this might not be a positive for Democrats and that independents who lean Republican may give the GOP a slight edge. Personally, I think (wild-ass guess) Donald Trump is going to be the X Factor. The ultimate trump card (pun intended).
You can perform a deep dive into the data over here at Gallup. Meanwhile, I'm certainly not feeling any love from anybody. Funny that.
Our group of five hunters killed nine whitetails last year. We processed four for ourselves and donated the remaining five to the food pantry network here in Door County. Venison burger is wholesome and popular fare with needful families.
I'm certain my neighbors had successful hunts as well.
Anyway, it would appear that we didn't make much of dent in the local whitetail herd as there have been ample images of does, fawns and a few dandy bucks continuing to show on the trail camera trapline.
It is the gift that keeps on giving.....
According to the interweb this song, performed by the
virtual band the ‘Archies’, was produced by Jeff Barry – and originally released
on the album Everything's Archie. The
final product was the result of a collection of studio musicians managed by Don
Kirshner.
Lead
vocals were by Ron Dante along with Andy Kim and Toni Wine and only by the miracle of studio
multitracking was this catchy tune held together by a thread. Released in
late May of 1969 the song achieved small success on the charts in the
early summer in some radio markets. It
was re-released mid-July 1969, on the Kirshner label. From there it went viral (before viral was a thing) spending
four weeks at the top of the U.S. Billboard Hot 100. The song eventually rose to the 1969 US
number-one single of the year. It
persists - ranked at number 78 - on Billboard's Greatest of All Time Hot 100
Singles.
Not a poor showing for a fake band.
Sorry for the earworm folks, but it's heartwarming to see people posting dance videos nowadays, choreographed to something that is 55 years old...
With the arrival of January 25th comes the first full
moon of 2024.
 |
| 01.09.20 photo |
.....Flock together.
Wild turkeys tend to travel in flocks as there is safety in numbers. If you have a dozen or more pairs of keen eyes predators can frequently be spotted before they pose a threat.
Turkey flocks take many forms. A brood flock includes hens and a mixed sex collection of that year's recruitment of the newly-hatched. Brood flocks are sometimes led by a matriarchal Boss Hen.
Jakes - yearling males - also travel in flocks. They are like gangs of teenage boys and are prone to making trouble and bad decisions. They are the juvenile delinquents of the species.
This is a flock of long beards; mature males referred-to as gobblers. Outside of the breeding season these flocks are typical and can be led by a dominant male bird. (The pecking order applies to birds of both sexes). With the arrival of spring and with loving on their minds any previous conviviality goes out the window and these males will resort sparring amongst themselves as they compete to collect their harems of hens with which to breed.
Jakes who are stupid enough to attempt to breed with a mature gobbler's lady friend can expect a sound thrashing.
These photos were taken by camera #2 on the north bank of Silver Creek and camera #1 west of the house and within a stone's throw of the Taj 2.0. The interval was sixteen minutes apart.
Years ago Jill and I spent a couple of days camping in the vicinity and touring the Little Bighorn Battlefield National Monument. It is a sprawling battlefield best navigated by automobile to capture the scale of the do or die conflict.
Nikki Haley has finally gotten what she wanted since the start to her campaign for the GOP presidential nomination: a vast battlefield in New Hampshire and a one-on-one showdown with Donald Trump. Do or die.
Sunday the field was cleared for her with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspending his campaign. The former governor of South Carolina and UN Ambassador, Haley is left as the only real threat to a third consecutive Trump nomination.
Polling suggests Trump retains a commanding lead, but Haley has dismissed the idea the race was over, suggesting America doesn't do coronations. We believe in choices.
We'll see if this is the hill she's chosen to die on. Stay-tuned...
This is what happens when you get the creeping impression that things have been too quiet for too long.
And the dog is nowhere to be seen.
The dog will have quietly slunk into the bathroom to filch a roll of toilet paper. Made herself comfortable on the bed. And efficiently unrolled and shredded it. Ingesting an unknown amount in the process.
This too shall pass.....
What a season for Jordan Love and the Packers in what was potentially a rebuilding year.
Started the season 3-6, finished 7-3
6.3% chance of making the playoffs after Week 8
Jordan Love - Best QBR since Week 11
Beat the Number 2 seed Dallas Cowboys in the Super Wild Card Round
Not bad for the youngest team in the league
Bright future for Love and the franchise....
Apologies, in-advance, for the brain dump.
The primary games are upon us and the Iowa caucuses are in the rear view mirror. My takeaway? 110,000+ voters participated in the 2024 state caucuses - the smallest turnout ever. This represents less than 15% of the state's 752,000 registered Republican voters.
The 2016 turnout was 187,000 - about 70 percent higher. It is reasonable to conclude that the nasty cold weather conditions resulted in some voters staying home. Or is it possible something else is in play? Enthusiasm maybe?
Without a doubt, Donald Trump, with his power of incumbency and to my eyes at least, the most loyal and motivated base of supporters ever. His name recognition is off the charts. His trajectory is that of the inevitable. Yet he earned only half the votes of only a small number of the most committed GOP voters - roughly eight percent.
Consider this.
There is a population of Republican, Republican-leaning, conservative and independent voters who are unlikely to vote for Trump in the general election. Nearly half of Nikki Haley's Iowa supporters claim they'd vote for Biden over Trump. That is not to suggest they like or support Biden's policies - it is the suggestive of the strength of the Never Trump movement in conservative circles. Polling suggests that twenty-five percent of GOP caucus-goers won't vote for Trump in November.
I'm not making trouble or picking a fight over any of this; yet some of this polling data has implications for the general election in November.
A Trump - Biden match-up in November is presently in the margin of error and promises to be a close and fraught election. A couple of octogenarians going head to head.
A Haley - Biden match-up in November presently has Biden trailing by ten points. A younger, brighter, aspirational UN Ambassador mops the floor with Biden going head to head.
Sure, I understand polls can get it wrong. Yet a
party platform of retribution, grievance and pay-back is, in my
opinion, thin soup. If the GOP is desirous of taking back the White House, retaining control of the House or taking-back the Senate; or any combination of the foregoing, then something needs to happen to capture the enthusiasm of Republican, Republican-leaning, conservative and independent voters who continue to be indifferent to Trump. This will be a challenge.
As a recovering financial guy here are a couple of closing thoughts and an admonition to not commit an unforced financial error in 2024.
Past performance does not guarantee future results; nevertheless, historic patterns share some predictive qualities. I remain rationally optimistic about the art and science of basic economics and history.
Ponder this:
Where does Nikki Haley go after New Hampshire?
Is the next real race the one for for Donald Trump's VP?
I recall first learning the constellations as a young Boy Scout. It might have had something to do with a merit badge and I have a specific memory of spending a winter weekend at someone's lake cabin and going out on the ice after dark to study the heavens. Recently, the Pleiades has made the digital pages of The Platz.
Asterism - a prominent pattern or group of stars, typically assigned a popular name but smaller than a constellation.
The Winter Circle (Winter Hexagon) is a winter asterism formed by seven brightest stars that dominate the winter sky in the northern hemisphere. Included are Rigel in Orion, Aldebaran in Taurus, Capella in Auriga, Castor and Pollux in Gemini, Procyon in Canis Minor and Sirius in Canis Major.
Image credit Chris Vaughan Starry Nigh
Sirius, the brightest star in the sky, is known as the Dog Star. Procyon is known as the Little Dog Star. This is a fun time to watch for these stars as beginning tonight and for the following evenings the moon will be passing among them.
From the YouTube vault there is this rare clip of the very early Moody Blues.
French footage is captures everything from Mike Pinder's cracking wise about the lack of audience enthusiasm at the opening, to Graeme Edge's drums on Peak Hour, The joy of Ray Thomas, Justin Hayward's smooth vocals and John Lodge on bass.
At sixteen minutes this is a bit longer but worth it. You can always scroll ahead.....
The moon is waxing as it grows towards the full phase.
Look to the south an hour after sunset. Binoculars will help.
This entry about the highway patrol features our own Wisconsin State Police.
The livery of their fleet of vehicles has evolved over the years.
including the debut of the first patrol pickup truck...
At risk of appearing to be piling-on it would seem you cannot get enough of the ethical lapses from those Moms For Liberty mommas.
Keri Blair, former Tennessee school board member, and member of the book banning, Critical Race Theory conspiracy-mongering, COVID-denying and LGBTQ-hater organization - Moms For Liberty - was arrested on January 5th after allegedly shoplifting from Target on seven different occasions. According to the Collierville Police Department Blair purportedly engaged in skip-scanning items at Target self-checkout stations seven different times between November 25 and December 20.
 |
| Collierville Police Department |
Blair's departure follows Moms For Liberty-backed candidates being swept out of office late last year in Philadelphia's suburban Central Bucks and Pennridge school districts despite the group holding their annual conference in the Pennsylvania city.
Listen-up moms, if you live in a glass house; don't throw stones. And for the love of God and all that is holy, don't engage in retail theft. Closed circuit security footage is admissible in court.
Sheesh...
In case you missed this ongoing skirmish in the larger culture war there's plenty of folks working overtime to make sure they control what you and your children or grandchildren read.
Beginning in July of 2021 PEN America began tracking public school book bans and has documented nearly 6,000 instances of banned books including 3,362 bans affecting 1,557 unique titles covering the 2022-23 school year. This included 1,480 authors, illustrators and translators.
 |
| New Christmas Ornament for 2023 |
Drivers of these trends include vaguely-worded legislation, national advocacy groups pressuring local school boards with the threat of penalties, lawsuits and criminal prosecution escalating the book bans to record levels.
In the first nine months of 2023 the American Library Association reported more than 1,900 titles challenged, a 20% increase over the same period in 2022.
Singled-out for particular attention are people of color or anything associated with the LGBTQ community. When the final three months of 2023 are included the total will certainly rise.
Major findings:
 |
In the face of this there is a small measure of poetic justice to be found between the pages of banned books. Bridget Ziegler, book ban queen and Moms for Liberty member from Florida, and her husband Christian Ziegler, now former Florida Republican Party Chairman, have found themselves embroiled in the fallout from a police report of a consensual sexual threesome including sexual battery allegations against the deposed GOP chairman.
Sniff Sniff. Do you smell what I smell? I suspect it's a whiff of schadenfreude in the Florida air.
A free people do not censor speech or ban books.
There is a NFL Wild Card game tomorrow that you might not want to miss.
Sure, the Cowboys are seven-point favorites, while the over/under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored is 50.5 in the latest Packers v. Cowboys odds from SportsLine consensus.
Of course, there's no denying these numbers.....
Beginning this evening the moon is at its closest approach to earth. This is known as Perigee. As a consequence, the moon will appear larger and brighter in the January night sky.
Tomorrow Saturn will be making a close approach to the moon and they will appear together. While visible to the naked eye, a pair of binoculars is recommended. This might be an opportunity for someone with a good camera to capture an image of both celestial bodies in the same frame.
Blizzard warning for here until noon tomorrow.
It's been howling pretty good since this morning so we're sheltering in place.
According to the national weather service here are the probabilities for our local snowfall...
With the moon not visible this evening it is the perfect time to observe faint celestial bodies.
Without moonlight the sky is at its darkest.
Fingers-crossed for no cloud cover too.
Image credit Chris Vaughan Starry Night
I first heard this yesterday afternoon while cleaning guns in my basement workshop. Donald Trump was prattling-on about his hopes for an economic crash.
When there's a crash, I hope it's going to be during this next twelve months, because I don't want to be Herbert Hoover.
Let's unpack that statement. If Trump believes and wants the markets to crash, then by extension, the general economic condition must be good. Sure, running on the fumes of his administration; nevertheless, a good economy along with concurrent rising markets. If the economy was in shambles and the markets down then it would be impossible to crash.
Similarly, if the economy was only in mediocre condition it couldn't crash. It could slip into recession and the market would correct; but there would be insufficient room for a true crash. An economy can only crash if it is performing at a sufficiently high enough level to fall. And Trump is predicting, even hoping for, a crash.
Is Donald Trump inadvertently suggesting that Bidenomics ain't so bad? That Biden set the price of regular unleaded at $2.34?
Of course, I'm being facetious. Sure, the market can crash. As a consequence of a Black Swan event. The immediate impact that any president has over an economy as large as ours is overstated. However, Trump has shown a predisposition to confuse the stock market with the economy. Nevertheless, I wonder if Trump's base might be feeling a twinge of cognitive dissonance over the prospects of their retirement being impacted.
Watch the opening thirty seconds of the clip below. Watch all of it if you are inclined. I rarely watch MSNBC and never watch Morning Joe. I just want you to know I don't make stuff-up.
Crazy talk from the former POTUS. Absolutely nuts.....
Get a load of this graph!
I've said for awhile that Donald Trump will be the GOP candidate for president this year. For any of you doubters this dynamic will become patently clear once the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses are held in only a few days.
If Trump cleans-up in Iowa there is a high probability he'll expand his lead in New Hampshire. My sense is at that point it's game over for everyone else; including Nikki Haley. Trump may actually thump her in South Carolina. Or maybe not. Either way, he will have all the needed delegates to sew-up the GOP nomination by the end of March.
Which is interesting; to me, anyway. If the latest WSJ polling is to be believed Ambassador Haley clobbers Biden in a head-to-head match-up by 17 points. Trump wins by 4 percent. Margin of error anyone? Haley has plenty of appeal to moderates, independents, traditional conservatives and even some Democrats. Drama and controversy doesn't hang over her like an angry storm cloud.
It is going to be an interesting primary season.
Let the games begin....
__________________________________________________________________________
There is a population of conservatives, Republicans, center-right individuals and independent-minded voters who place a high value on facts and the truth. Marginalized because they refuse to embrace baseless conspiracy theories nor demonstrate sufficient fealty and obeisance to the former guy - exile is their cross to bear.
Just about the time I thought it was safe to take my new pup for a walk in the woods this shows-up in my email box this morning.
A trail camera photo taken just before Christmas by J.B. Sensenbrenner on his Southern Door property located near Lake Michigan between Algoma and Sturgeon Bay.
That would be just east of here.
And that is a gray wolf.
The January full moon is called the Wolf Moon.....
We learn that the hospitalization of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was kept from the White House and his own top aids for days.
The world is an exceedingly dangerous place and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs knew of Austin's condition last Tuesday, the day following Austin's hospitalization at Walter Reed. Yet it was two more days before the Pentagon Chief of Staff, Kelly Magsamen notified the Deputy Defense Secretary, Kathleen Hicks and Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
If these three individuals knew how is it the White House was uninformed?
The US assassinated an Iran-backed militia leader in Iraq last week. Who was in charge?
This is the sort of drama I'd expect from the former occupant of the the White House.
What the hell?
And what's anybody going to do about it?
Not my work - found on the interweb.
Yes, this is photo shopped.
Taken with the same camera, from the same location at similar times, two separate images were merged into one.
It is a very good tool for identifying the key characteristics differentiating a gray wolf from a coyote.
By any traditional measures our economy is firing on all eight cylinders. Unemployment is at a fifty year low, wages (adjusted for inflation) are higher than they were before the pandemic, job satisfaction is up and last month the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled that with inflation subsiding we may see three rate cuts in 2024. It looks like there is little if any chance of a recession, with an economic soft landing instead.
So why is public opinion on the economy not reflecting all of this wonderful news?
Conventional wisdom would suggest that people are grumpy about the economy even with the economic winds at their backs.
The best guess is that consumer sentiment over the economy has soured mostly as a consequence of high prices. While inflation has slowed prices have not come down significantly. We've seen a wee bit of a drop yet all you have to do is look at the tape total following a trip to the grocery store and it all makes perfect sense. I also think there is some psychology in play as a consequence of social media trolls and garden-variety confirmation bias. There is an election looming after all.
Consider this. Only a couple short years ago, when inflation reared its ugly head and prices began to spike, consumer sentiment plunged in the opposite direction. In 2022 the mood of the people, as measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, was as bad as it could possibly be. The Consumer Sentiment Index set a record fifty year low! That is a big deal.
Ordinarily, a strong economy bodes well for an incumbent president. In this case consumers may be recovering from the sentiment hangover. If economic grumpiness is the new normal this does not bode well for Biden's reelection prospects.
Maybe as we've embraced post-pandemic life our world has fundamentally changed somehow. Maybe it is the cumulative impact of many things - supply chain interruptions, labor shortages leading to hiring disruptions, longer waits for a contractor, higher mortgage rates, increased cost of diesel, fertilizer, used cars, new cars, real estate and construction has put large numbers of people into a mind-numbing economic funk? I cannot put my finger on it.
Nevertheless, gasoline prices have come down considerably ($2.34 Friday at the new Kwik Trip in Sturgeon Bay), the stock and bond markets have out-performed, my real estate taxes are affordable and have barely increased, interest rates are forecast to fall, the prospects of a recession seem to have been a mirage, my personal consumer confidence is strong and for everyone else is likely improving every month since hitting rock bottom. The previously worrisome Consumer Sentiment Index is steadily rising. The economy is strong. I have no major grievances. If Joe Biden is reelected not much will change for me. If Donald Trump is elected it is highly likely I'll continue to prosper and have beaucoup blog material. Besides, any president's immediate influence on an economy as large as ours is overstated.
So, we'll have to see how 2024 unfolds. For this blogger the glass is half-full.
Andrew S. Clyde (R-Ga.) has described the January 6 riot and assault on the Capitol and the mob's breaching of the building as a "normal tourist visit.”
I do quite a bit of traveling and am a tourist. I've been to Washington DC multiple times. Nothing like this would have entered my head.
Sure, those who broke-down doors, busted windows, assaulted law enforcement officers, defecated on the carpeting or engaged in violence or committed other crimes were charged and prosecuted accordingly. Some of the participants of this event got a ticket for trespassing. The rest got nothing at all.
I'm sure some people will celebrate rebellion and violence against others today. In a free society you can hold that belief system. I would counsel against acting on it.
Most people know that if someone hosts a riot, the smart choice is to run the other way.....
Part of our daily routine.
Dog certainly knows the drill.
Don't know were the birds are.
Oh yeah. Under the feeder in the front yard...
Composed by Paul Desmond and arranged by Dave Brubeck this tune is known for it distinctive tempo from which Brubeck derived its name.
First recorded in 1959 it has been covered since by a multitude of artists. It became a commercial success in 1961 and went on to become the biggest-selling jazz single of all time. It was induced into the Grammy Hall of Fame in 1996.
Take Five...
Just about every day without fail I take the dog out for a "hunt". It's basically about going thru the motions now as I'm not sure where all the pheasants have gone to. Coyotes maybe?
Anyway, if you've lived with upland bird dogs there is a certain ritual to swapping out shoes for boots, a shell vest or jacket, blaze cap, and fetching the shotgun from the bench at the back door and heading out. The dog now knows the drill.
On our walk she works the cover following her nose. Sometimes I plant a pheasant wing or two for her to locate. We both get some fresh air and exercise. And a tired pupper is less likely to bedevil you.
The dog basically knows what to do and she's now been trained with an e-collar to respond to a tone.
Smart dog.
Anyway, my device tells me that my walk is anywhere from .75 to 1.5 miles in length. The dog's mileage may vary towards a number north of those figures. And the trail camera trap line logs our movements too.
With the help of a bathroom scale and the trail cam photos this is how we keep track of the pup's growth over time.
From the end of November to mid December there are these.....
Found in my pocket there is this from a recent fill-up in Lake Geneva.
$2.649 a gallon for regular unleaded.
Further evidence that government does not build pipelines.
Government does not drill for oil.
Presidents do not set the price of a gallon of gasoline.
Business and markets make this happen. Capitalism.
Should've waited. Six cents cheaper at the BP eleven miles down the road.
Raising a toast to capital markets and a robust economy.....
The Quadrantids are an annual meteor shower that is a
consequence of Earth passing through the debris field of a crumbling comet some
500 years ago. If you have an opportunity to witness this
event - depending upon your location - it has the potential of producing as many as 100 shooting stars an hour.
For those of us in North America the
Quadrantids will reach its maximum rate of activity tomorrow on January 4th. Some shooting stars associated with the
shower began several weeks ago and will linger around thru
January 6th.
Observing the
show on the peninsula requires a location with little light pollution and a
view towards the north-northeast between the North Star and the Big Dipper. We're still a week away from this month's New Moon so fingers-crossed for cold, clear dark skies.
Happy New Year gentle readers.
With the dawn of the New Year unemployment is still below 4 percent, inflation has cooled to 3 percent, third quarter economic growth came in a 5.2% 4.9% (revised a second time) the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has returned to pre-pandemic levels and wages are growing faster than prices. All good news as we turn the page on a new calendar.
As supply chains have finally caught-up we've even settled into consumption patterns that are near normal. (Note: If Iranian-back Houthi rebels step-up harassment of Red Sea shipping; supply chains are gonna get rocked).
All of that aside, what we know for sure is that us boomers are continuing to retire in droves; and as a consequence have created a demographic disturbance in the force. The millennials and Gen Z population cohorts might not be capable of meeting future labor demands. So, while we can momentarily bask in the warmth of recent positive economic news, inflation might be a stickler for awhile. We have to wait and see.
And there is that nagging disconnect between consumer behavior and consumer perception. So check back Sunday while I take another whack at that piñata.
Fun Factoid:
Declaring it Public Enemy Number One, in 1974 President Gerald Ford mounted a campaign to suppress inflation. It was called Whip Inflation Now (WIN) and an attempt to spur a grassroots movement to combat inflation by means of encouraging personal savings and disciplined spending habits in combination with 55 presidential vetoes (45 upheld by Congress) saving US taxpayers $9.5 billion. I'm old enough to remember.
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