More Soviet-Style Economics

Beef prices are up 15 percent over the past year according to federal inflation data released Friday.  One contributing factor is low supply and high demand.  The herd has shrunk as a consequence of recent droughts and high feed costs.  The second contributor is trade taxes (tariffs) on imported beef.  The high cost of beef has been a primary contributor to a price increase for groceries of 3.1 percent this year.

 

In another unsurprising example of his on-again, off-again trade policies - president Trump threw American ranchers under the bus with the announcement that he was unilaterally quadrupling beef imports from Argentina - tariff-free.  And that domestic beef producers should lower their beef prices in response.

 

The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil, Trump wrote on social media.

It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!

Soybean farmers were among the first to find themselves in the crosshairs of Trump’s tit-for-tat tariffs with China. Since May, China has effectively boycotted American soybeans as a response.  And now it's the cattlemen.  This is absolutely exhausting.

The domestic agriculture sector is already struggling with the rising cost of fertilizer as a consequence of tariffs and labor shortages driven by the president's immigration agenda.  The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggested; The result is not merely a short-term disruption, it could signal a sweeping reconfiguration of global agricultural trade stretching from Latin America to Europe and Australia.  

I'm not a big fan of conspiracies although I'm not surprised if some ranchers believe this is driven by the president's desire to help out his buddy, Argentina President Javier Milei.

It likely is some of the foregoing along with an extra helping of old school centralized economic planning at the whim of one guy.  You know; Soviet-Style.

Game Day

The Missus and a very tired Red Rocket chilling-out for Packer Game Day....

 

Ruby Time

From the trail camera circuit here's a tranche of red golden retriever selfies.  Some of me too.

Friday Music

Rock and blues musician Rory Gallagher performs ‘Walking Blues’ accompanied by Mark Feltham on harmonica. 

Introducing Rory Gallagher, Shay Healy takes great comfort in the knowledge that "No microchip will every replace the great blues journeyman Rory Gallagher." Rory Gallagher explains that his unusual looking guitar is an old 1932 National Resonator. Although it looks wooden it is steel bodied and is often used for street singing as it is very loud.

Although out of the country a lot, Rory Gallagher feels the urge to come home every now and again, You always miss it when you are away. Accompanied by his friend Mark Feltham on harmonica, Rory Gallagher performs one of the greatest blues songs ‘Walking Blues’. 

Written in 1930 by Son House, the song has been adapted and recorded by numerous other musicians including Robert Johnson and Muddy Waters. This episode of ‘Evening Extra’ was broadcast on February 24,1988. The presenter is Shay Healy. 

Hat-Tip to Gabe from Friday Group......

Fall Foliage

My favorite Power Company Tree is sporting some fine fall colors...

 

End of Tomatos

If you are a pizza snob like me by now you would have noticed that imported San Marzano tomatoes are now selling for $6 (give-or-take) for a large can.  Sure, you can purchase a quality domestic product for less $$$; but there is nothing like the genuine article grown in the rich volcanic soils in the shadow of Mount Vesuvius.  Alas, the on-again, off-again, individually and personally negotiated Trump import duties (tariffs) are taxes that make imported food an expensive nuisance.  Such is the price of snobbery.

If my household was supporting a spouse and three teenage kids consuming a gallon of milk a day I would also tell you the bread, fresh fruit, produce, beef, dairy, deli meat for lunches and eggs are also up in price too.  And for a working family trying to make ends meet on the grocery bill along with sports uniforms and extracurriculars and a mortgage - life might be a challenge under Trump inflation and taxes.  But he doesn't care.  And I digress.

Last week, after putting the big garden to bed, I finally canned the last batch of San Marzano tomatoes grown in the crappy clay soil of my peninsula garden.  One bowl yielded two last pints of these garden gems.  So, yeah, there is a means to cutting costs.  Grow your own applies to veggies too.  And these are pretty darn tasty.  My two - yes, only two - San Marzano plants were tomato factories. The bunker shelves are well-stocked. 

In closing I want to announce that the big garden is being retired.  It's being seeded into native pollinator cover this fall and I'm going to install 2-3 raised garden beds in the front yard and fill them with decent topsoil and composted goodness.  I'm done gardening on my hands and knees.  Furthermore, if I want to make a giant batch of pickles there is always the Sturgeon Bay Saturday Farmers Market.

After thirty years of gardening I'm scaling-back....      

Big Bird

Recently, when I let out the dog before bedtime I heard the call of the Great Horned Owl as dusk settled upon the forest.  The horned owl is common around here and its call is quite distinctive.  And just a couple of days ago my cousin snapped this daylight photo in his backyard in Wauwatosa.

The horned owl is particularly gutsy being one of the few birds of prey that will take porcupines and skunks.  Plucky bird the horned owl is - which is why it is sometimes called the Flying Tiger. 

Exhausting

Depending on your priorities a lot can be done with $30 to $40 billion.

President Donald Trump has prioritized his friendship with the president of Argentina.

Javier Milei, nicknamed El Loco for his eccentric manners, is one of the few world leaders who attended Trump’s inauguration. Now, with his country facing a dire economic crisis, Trump is sending El Loco $40 billion in a not-at-all subtle effort to help him win reelection later this month.  Given the fact that Argentina's credit rating is basically junk you can kiss our money good bye.

And here’s the conundrum:  during Trump’s first term in office he started a trade war with China. When China responded by buying soybeans from Brazil instead of American farmers the resulting bailout cost all of us more than $35 billion.

Now, Trump’s doing it again, and another ginormous bailout will follow. 

America’s soybean crop is worth at least $30 billion. And once again, China pulled back and hasn’t bought any of our soybeans. Not a single, solitary, bean; much less the $12.6 billion they would have purchased from us at this same time a year ago.

So, where did China get their soybeans? 

Argentina.

The country now getting $40 billion from us.

Trump might have used that $40 billion to reinstate health insurance premium tax credits he insists on letting expire. So the government is shut down, Americans are seeing skyrocketing health insurance bills and farmers are hoping for a bailout check because the president wants to help a friend in a country that’s taking our spot in the global marketplace.

If you're still convinced this puts America First or if Argentina is ever going to pay us back you might just be El Loco. 

I don't see how any of this advances your and my prosperity and general lot in life.  For you readers who are Trump devotees I'm waiting for the explanation.  Meanwhile, all this winning is exhausting....

Semiquincentennial

As March 5, 1770 dawned, tensions between colonists and British soldiers were running high as a consequence of troops occupying Boston to enforce civil law for two long years already.  The presence of soldiers to enforce order inflamed resentment.  The town was a powder keg ready to explode.

Trouble began in late February when a schoolboy named Christopher Snider was shot and killed by a British loyalist during a melee.  The boy's funeral, organized by Samuel Adams, drew thousands of angry Bostonians.

On March 2, a British soldier, seeking a job, was told to clean my shithouse.  This triggered rioting.

On Monday, March 5, rumor had it that there would again be trouble.  The town was filled with people, mostly boys and young men milling about.  Many from out of town.  This was one of many brawls and arguments that broke out in Boston on that day.  

This one began innocently enough with a dispute over a barber bill.  A wig maker's apprentice was pestering an army officer, tailing him all over town, insulting him about the debt - which had, in truth, been paid. Eventually the officer entered a tavern on King Street opposite the State House.  The apprentice continued his harassment outside.  A solitary sentry on guard at the nearby Custom House joined the argument and struck the boy with the barrel of his musket.  A crowd began to gather, someone rang a church bell - normally used as a fire alarm - and more people arrived.  Many had sticks and clubs.

At the 29th Regiment's nearby HQ, Captain Thomas Preston 'walked up and down for near half an hour' wondering what to do.  The lone sentry was surrounded by hostile citizens and clearly in danger.  Finally, Preston led a detail to the Custom House to escort the sentry to safety.  Upon arrival Preston and his eight men found themselves surrounded.  For fifteen minutes the crowd grew uglier as the mob confronted the soldiers.  Insults and profanities were hurled.  Ice chunks were thrown at the soldiers.  Snowballs mixed with horse dung from the street were thrown at the troopers.  A club was thrown hitting one of the redcoats and knocking him to the ground.  Under stress and confusion and presaging events at Kent State two hundred years later - the trooper stood and fired at point-blank range.  More shots followed.  

Preston frantically ordered his men to cease fire; but three already lay dead and two more were dying.  Five colonists were killed including an African American - Crispus Attucks - remembered as the first violent casualty of the Revolution.  Several other Bostonians were wounded.

Samuel Adams and Paul Revere played this for all it was worth for its value as propaganda.  Their perennial villain, Lt. Gov. Hutchinson was forced to evacuate the troops to Castle Island in the harbor.

Revere's engraving of the Bloody Massacre was plagiarized from an illustration by Henry Pelham and was factually inaccurate but was terrific agitprop.  Prints were sold throughout Boston, the other colonies and made their way to England. 

But Boston was not ready for war and with the troops removed the situation quieted-down.  Two ardent patriots, John Adams (future president) and Josiah Quincy  defended the soldiers in court and won an acquittal for all but two of them.  The two found guilty of manslaughter were branded on their thumbs and set free.  

First installed in 1887, the circular brick memorial was in the middle of the street near where it was said Crispus Attucks fell.  It's been moved three times since with the present location selected so visitors would be less likely to be struck by traffic. 

The incident deepened colonial hostility toward Britain and contributed to unifying the opposition further laying the groundwork for the Revolution.

click on image to read the grave marker

 

October Astronomy Reminder

The Orionid Meteor Shower will light up the night sky on October 21 and 22. This event happens every year when Earth passes through the debris left behind by Halley’s Comet.  As these tiny particles enter our atmosphere, they burn up and create bright streaks of light known as meteors.

The Orionids are named after the constellation Orion, because the meteors seem to appear from that part of the sky.  They are known for being fast and bright, often leaving glowing trails that last for several seconds. Under dark skies, you might see up to 20 meteors per hour during the peak.

To watch this event, find a dark location away from city lights. The best viewing time is after midnight and before dawn when the sky is darkest. No special equipment is needed, but letting your eyes adjust to the darkness for about 20 minutes will help you see more meteors.

This meteor shower is one of the most reliable and enjoyable for both beginners and experienced sky watchers. Even if you only see a few, the sight of these natural fireworks across the stars is worth staying up for.

click on image to enlarge

Photo of Constellation Orion Monday morning - view southeast, October 20, at 5 AM. iPhone 14 Pro. 

Opportunity Lost?

This sucks.

Comet C/2025 A6 (Lemmon) is making its closest approach to earth tonight.

It should be in center fame - above and slightly right of the brick oven chimney.

Naturally, Ma Nature has sent rain our direction to mess with my once-in-a-lifetime astronomical viewing experience.  

Ugh.....

October Astronomy

The Orionid meteor shower featured in this post originates in the debris left behind by Halley's Comet.  Halley completes a circumnavigation of our sun every 76 years or thereabouts.  It last visited us in 1986 and will return in 2061.  Nevertheless, the dust trail left behind in its path does not disappear and is intercepted every year in late October.

As particulate matter from the debris trail enters our atmosphere it burns-up producing the Orionid meteor shower.  The orbit of the earth is opposite that of the debris (Retrograde is the Word Of The Day) resulting in fast-moving shooting stars.  We also collide with the debris once-again in May which results in the Eta Aquariids meteor show.  Halley is responsible for two meteor shows a year.

The overall duration of this shower is from September 26 to November 22 and is scheduled to peak on the evenings of October 21 with the best opportunities after midnight and before dawn.

This month's New Moon coincides with tomorrow evening.  New moons have no moonlight to clutter your viewing conditions and if you have clear skies viewing conditions could be optimal.  The radiant for the Orionids originates from the constellation Orion the Hunter so fix yourself a cuppa hot cocoa or a glass of Merlot and keep your fingers-crossed for good viewing conditions.

09.15.23 Orion

Pretty Good Chow If You Can Get it

On the heels of two evenings of venison wieners yesterday's dinner was a terrific change of pace.

Those of you who are NYT subscribers will recognize this as Ali Slagle’s Salmon Teriyaki recipe from last week.

When I was in Sturgeon Bay the other day I purchased a bag of North Atlantic wild caught salmon fillets. Five of them - just like the one in the photo - individually frozen and shrink wrapped.  Product of Norway.

They weren’t cheap, yet the stiff import tax (tariff) was less than anything from China or Vietnam. So, there is that and wild-caught vs. something farm-raised; quality matters for something.

Texas Basmati rice and salade César as sides. There’s enough of that sweet and salty salmon deliciousness leftover for a Sunday morning omelet too.

Pretty good chow if you can get it….

Ship Of The Line

I have a thing for ships and shipping.  Living in a maritime community it comes naturally.  There are 34 Coast Guard Cities in the United States, including Sturgeon Bay; the only one in Wisconsin.  For more than 150 years Coast Guard members and their families have called this their home.  

Shipbuilding is a major industry here in northeast Wisconsin - both commercially and for the department of defense.  During WWII the yard in Sturgeon Bay was launching a Liberty Ship in less than five days every month.  In nearby Manitowoc the yard built and launched 10 Gato and 18 Balao Class submarines.  Fincantieri Bay Ship has begun fabrication and assembly of the the US Navy's latest guided missile frigate.  Yes, they're resurrecting the frigate.  Bottom line; our naval roots grow deep.

In his recent speech to assembled US military commanders in Quantico, VA the president advanced his desire to return battleships to the US Navy; describing them as heavily armored, gun-centric, ships that are aesthetically impressive.  Trump further stated that this notion was under serious consideration and with a nod to their massive 16 inch guns that bullets are a lot less expensive than missiles.  The president was critical of the appearance of modern warships sporting stealth technology calling them, ugly.  Naturally, none of this is new as a decade ago candidate Trump delivered an address on the USS Iowa where he suggested recommissioning the ship. 

What is unclear from the Quantico speech is this:  Does the president wish to reactivate old battleships or does he wish to build new ones?  Whichever path is taken presents unique challenges.  Expensive ones too.

There are four remaining WWII era Iowa-class battleships.  Retired decades ago they presently serve as museum ships.  To make them operational would take years and cost billions upon billions of dollars.  Their oil-fired, steam power plants are antiquated and today's sailors are not trained to operate them.  The fire control system is obsolete; besides, 16-inch shells are no longer manufactured.

Build from scratch?  Consider the cost; two or three guided missile frigates could be had for the cost of one battleship.  And as impressive as a 16 inch gun might be; guided missiles and aircraft can hit further, faster and with deadly accuracy.  Smaller ships require smaller crews and large ships of the line are big, fat, high-value targets vulnerable to hypersonic weapons.

Let's face it, president Trump is not a naval architect; and the Navy has a plan to expand the fleet in the decades to come to include both manned and unmanned ships.  Moreover, higher-tech guns and missile tubes stand a better chance of dominating a conflict at sea. 

My guess?  Trump goes off-script most all the time and battleships occupy a memory hole in his vast pothole-ridden brain to emerge in his stream of consciousness like whack-a-mole when triggered.  

They're not gonna happen. 

You can learn more about this subject here. 

Cobia Heads For Home

The Manitowoc Shipbuilding Company assembled and launched 28 submarines for the US Navy during the second World War.  They were nicknamed Freshwater Submarines as a consequence of being built on the Great Lakes.  They were ferried down the Mississippi river to New Orleans for final refitting and deployment to the Pacific Theater.  These included vessels like the Peto, Puffer and Rasher.  25 of these boats saw action sinking 132 Japanese ships.  4 were lost at sea.  

In early September Gato class WWII submarine USS Cobia (SS-245) arrived at the Fincantieri shipyard for dry docking to facilitate repairs, refitting and a makeover.

A couple of days ago she departed for her home port of Manitowoc where the boat serves as a museum ship and national monument.

Kevin O'Donnell synchronized in real time, drone video and the marine radio communications between tug captains, the dock workers, and the WWII submarine USS Cobia, as they gently nudge her from slip #1 at Bay Ship, tow her through town, and out the Sturgeon Bay Ship Canal. 

 

The production value of this is really excellent.

 

And if you appreciate maritime history; worth a watch...

 

Pentagon Press Corps

So, we’re gonna give the DOD a Trillion dollars and not have them accountable to a FREE press?

Naturally, this at the direction of the same collection of morons blathering about war plans in real time using Signal on their unencrypted personal devices.

No freedom of the press is one step closer to fascism.

The one thing that may save us from this administration’s clear authoritarian intent is its equally obvious incompetence.

Threesome

Whitetail triplets are hardly common yet hardly unknown.  I've blogged about it here from time to time as a consequence of trail camera evidence of the same.

Type Fawn Triplets in the search tool in the upper left corner of the blog homepage to see what you find.  

And there was this short video clip records at the end of last month.....

   

Friday Music

Composed by front man Mark Knopfler of the British rock band Dire Straits this sond was first recorded as a demo in 1977.  After the band signed a recording contract it was rerecorded in 1978 and released on the debut album - Dire Straits.

Knopfler consider the song boring until he acquired his first Fender Stratocaster at which  point the chord changes simple fell into place.

Turn-up the volume for Sultans of Swing.....

Winner, Winner, Weiner Dinner

What with all the baseball lately it should come as no surprise I've developed a hankering for hot dogs.

That’s a Meisfelds venison wiener from Sheboygan.  Tasty too.

Pretty good chow; if you can get it.

Go Brewers..... 

Better Living Through Chemistry

I had a Skilcraft Chemistry Set similar to this growing-up in the 1960s.  Did you?

These sets were sold in various levels of complexity - if I had to hazard a guess I didn't have a base model or the high-end version.  Precisely which one I had is lost to memory but it was likely somewhere in the middle.   Chemistry sets were classic educational toys popular from the 1950s through the 1970s, produced by various companies.  The Skilcraft version was a brand under the National Industries for the Blind (NIB). These sets afforded curious and scientifically-inclined children to the basics of chemistry through hands-on experiments.

What I recall of my setup was that it included small bottles of chemicals - copper sulfate, iron filings, borax, sodium bisulfate, calcium chloride, sulfur, cobalt chloride and more.  

There were test tubes (and rack), glass stirring rods, funnel, beakers, droppers, measuring spoons, scales, litmus paper, pH test stuff, an alcohol-fueled burner and instruction manual with dozens of self-guided experiments.  These taught basic chemical reactions (acid-base, color change, gas production), the scientific method and likely encouraged talented children to eventually pursue a career in a field of science.

By today's standards these home-grown laboratories contained hazardous materials and wouldn't be for sale nowadays as a consequence of liability concerns.  Come to think of it, I have no recollection of goggles, gloves and routine adult supervision.  I was left at my own peril to conduct my mad scientist experiments alone at the basement work bench. 

If you happen to have one of these laying around and the chemical contents haven't corroded everything it might be of some interest to anyone that is a collector of vintage toys. 

Maybe one of these days I'll tell you about the dissection kit my dad gave me.....

Raspberry Avalanche!

 

This is my raspberry patch. 

Obviously not very big it is singularly, the most weed infested and neglected patch on the peninsula.  Admittedly, I did fertilize it and cut out dead canes in earlier this year.  

2025 has been a record harvest. Doggo and I picked raspberries (again) yesterday; freezing everything we didn’t scarf.

By my estimate I have more than 3+ gallons of these gems in the deep freeze.

I already have plenty of homemade jam in the bunker. I can certainly make more.   I can also add these to a smoothie and my Irish breakfast porridge.

Judging from a couple of my Face Book pals there is likely a raspberry pretzel torte in my future....

Foxy Rodent

Meet Sciurus niger - the Eastern Fox Squirrel - the largest species of tree squirrel native to North America. 

At first blush you might guess this to be a Red Squirrel.  Fox squirrels are the larger of the two and have rusty brown fur with a pale yellow to orange belly.  Lacking in this photo is the Red Squirrel's distinctive bright white belly and more pronounced white rings around the eyes.  The rusty coloring and large bushy tail are reminiscent of a fox - implying this is a Fox Squirrel.  From time to time this species produces black squirrels with a white belly, nose and white-tipped ears.  The translation of the Latin - Sciurus niger - is black squirrel.   

The bright orange pelt of this animal and it's loud, scolding call make it an easier visual and audible identification.  Unlike the Eastern Gray Squirrel this species has a wider home range and spends more time on the ground foraging.  They return with their food to a preferred dining location.  If you happen-upon a debris midden of corn cobs and split nutshells you will have found ‘that spot’.  This species buries nuts for retrieval at a future date - which probably accounts for all the tiny oak trees popping-up around the joint.

Semiquincentennial

On the road to independence it is 1760 and the British government has imposed the Writs of Assistance on their subjects in the American colonies.  Heretofore, the writ applied to citizens in Britain under a 1662 Act enabling customs officials to combat fraud and smuggling.  The practical impact in North America is that the writs were broad search warrants that allowed officials to enter homes, shops, warehouses, ships or businesses at any time to search for smuggled goods without having to disclose what they are looking for.

The colonists were strongly opposed to these measures because it was a violation of privacy and security of property and was without limitation.  Because the writ had previous not applied to British citizens in the colonies they became a symbol of the tyranny of King George and further fueled resentment leading up to the revolution.

Massachusetts lawyer, James Otis, famously argued against the writs in 1761 articulating core colonial grievances and popularizing the phrase - No taxation without representation.

Faneuil Hall in Boston was built in 1742 as a marketplace and meeting hall.  This building and James Otis were attached at the hip.  Otis delivered fiery speeches at this location protesting British policies and advocating for independence from British rule.  Faneuil Hall's assembly room served as a rallying location where patriots organized resistance, voiced their grievances and advocated unity in their resistance.  It eventually earned the nickname:  Cradle of Liberty. 

When the Stamp Act (1765) was imposed Boston patriots gathered at Faneuil Hall to denounce the tax and organize boycotts of British goods.  Samuel Adams and the Sons of Liberty used the hall to rally support and coordinate their resistance with other colonies.

The Townshend Acts (1767) imposed new duties on imported glass, paper, paint and tea.  A year later British officials seized John Hancock's ship Liberty claiming  it was involved in smuggling wine without payment of duties.  While it is true that Hancock was indeed a smuggler - and a flourishing one too - the seizure sparked outrage as Hancock was a wealthy merchant and a popular fellow.  Bostonians viewed this action as political targeting and responded with rioting and attacks on customs officials.  

The people were pissed-off.

The unrest escalated to the point that Britain sent troops to Boston later in 1768 to impose order.  The presence of troops in the city to enforce the law directly increased tensions between colonists and soldiers.  This occupation by military forces set the stage for the Boston Massacre two years later.

Time Warp

October 11, 2020

 

October 11, 2025 

 

The Big Lift

As of last evening a long-awaited ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is finally underway.  An end to the conflict is still up in the air with all of the obstacles to be found in the remaining 20 points in the Trump plan to end the war in Gaza.

I've actually read the plan and found particularly-detailed coverage in the Times of Israel (linked below).  It's a solid proposal and there's not much to it to take exception-to.  It will be a heavy lift and it is in the world's enlightened self interest that president Trump is successful. As they say - the devil is in the details - and there will be ample opportunity to debate specifics in the months and years to come.

If Trump pulls-it-off maybe he'll earn that elusive Nobel Peace Prize he so earnestly covets.  If he succeeds he deserves it.  Time will tell. 

Here are the 21 points as reported in the media summarizing Trump’s “21-point peace plan” for Gaza / the Israel-Hamas war:

Source: The Times of Israel (paraphrased) The Times of Israel

1. Gaza will be a de-radicalized, terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.

2. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of its people.

3. If Israel and Hamas accept the proposal, the war will immediately end: Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) halt operations and gradually withdraw from the Strip.

4. Within 48 hours of Israel publicly accepting the deal, all living and deceased hostages will be returned.

5. After hostages are returned, Israel will free several hundred Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences, over 1,000 Gazans arrested since the war began, plus return bodies of Palestinians.

6. Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence will be granted amnesty; those who wish to leave Gaza will be given safe passage to receiving countries.

7. After agreement, aid to Gaza will surge—at least at levels from earlier benchmark deals (e.g. 600 aid trucks/day) plus rehabilitation of critical infrastructure.

8. Aid will be distributed without interference from either Israel or Hamas, via the UN, Red Crescent, and other international organizations not tied to either party.

9. Gaza will be administered by a temporary transitional government of Palestinian technocrats, supervised by a new international body (established by the US in consultation with Arab and European partners).

10. An economic plan will be created to rebuild Gaza, using experts with experience in modern Middle Eastern cities, and existing investment plans.

11. A special economic zone will be established, with reduced tariffs and preferential access to participating countries.

12. No one will be forced to leave Gaza; those who choose to leave may return. Gazans will be encouraged to remain and build a better future there.

13. Hamas will have no role whatsoever in Gaza’s governance; all offensive military infrastructure (e.g. tunnels) must be destroyed.

14. Regional partners will guarantee security: ensure that Hamas and other factions comply, and Gaza stops posing threats.

15. The US will work with Arab/international partners to form a temporary international stabilization force (ISF) to deploy in Gaza immediately, oversee security, and train Palestinian police.

16. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza; the IDF will gradually hand over territory as security forces assume control.

17. If Hamas delays or rejects the proposal, its provisions will still be applied in “terror-free” areas: the IDF will hand them over to the international stabilization force.

18. Israel agrees not to carry out future strikes in Qatar; the US and international community acknowledge Doha’s mediating role in the Gaza crisis.

19. A process will be established to de-radicalize the population, including interfaith dialogue to change mindsets and narratives in both Israel and Gaza.

20. Once Gaza redevelopment advances and the Palestinian Authority’s reform program is completed, conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood (recognizing it as the aspiration of the Palestinian people).

21. The US will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful coexistence.

---

Caveats and observations:

• The plan is often referred to as a 20-point plan in several media outlets, but in the version leaked / reported by The Times of Israel it includes 21 items (the last being the U.S. dialogue to set a political horizon).

• Many of the points are broad commitments rather than detailed operational mechanisms; key issues (e.g. timing, enforcement, funding, oversight) remain under negotiation.

• Points like “if Hamas delays or rejects, proceed in terror-free areas” imply partial implementation even without full consensus.

• The plan envisions sidelining Hamas entirely from governance in Gaza, replacing it with technocratic administration under international supervision.

• The pathway to Palestinian statehood is conditional and not immediate; it depends on reforms, redevelopment, and progress on Gaza.