Having weekend guests we naturally tossed pizzas in the Forno followed the Packer game.
This morning I bid our travelers an early adieu.
Good thing I put the door back on the oven before bedtime as the temp
was still north of 400f (called a dying oven) and I had a couple of 375g
sourdough balls from yesterday.
So I baked bread.
Cheesy boules topped with tarragon plucked from the garden.
We have a long-established hedgerow of lilacs situated around the footprint of where the ancestral farmhouse once stood. This summer we notices that there was leaf die-off and a darkening of the stems and branches. Upon closer examination the woody part of the shrub was not dead. If scratched there was healthy, green matter beneath the bark. Nevertheless, something was stressing the plant as it was pushing-out replacement leaves and flowering. Go figure.
According to the interweb this is likely a form of blight caused by the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae. Among other things, it is characterized by leaf spots that can lead to leaf darkening, leaf wilting and premature leaf dropping.
Fortunately this is mostly a cosmetic condition and unless it reappears over multiple seasons there are no lasting effects. It is associated with wet conditions; which certainly describes our monsoon-like spring.
Because this is not a fungal pathogen spraying with a fungicides is a waste of time. Cleaning-up the leaf debris will prevent transmission next year.
I had an interesting text exchange with a pal a couple months back.
Hi Tom. I read your recent blog entry about Trump and the assassination attempt. I know you hate Trump. I'd like to know what policies that Biden had you agree with and support.
What a strange request from out of nowhere.
First of all, this interrupted my favorite cooking program - The Great American Recipe - so I was mildly annoyed. If I had to hazard a guess he and another pal were hanging-out, enjoying adult beverages and spontaneously decided to poke the bear. Taking the bait I continued with a flurry of texts as he badgered me for a policy of Old Uncle Joe's that I supported.
Seeking to end the tedium I settled on the largely bipartisan policy that provided military aid to Taiwan and Ukraine.
Considering this is a bright guy I was surprised he didn't recognize a protest vote when he sees one.
To be clear, I don't hate Donald Trump. I happen to think there are plenty of normal stand-up Republicans that make for better candidates. There's history to my membership in the Never Trumper Club long before it became a thing.
My first impression of Donald Trump dates to 1983 or 84 (or thereabouts). Back in the day I had taken a promotion to supervise securities sales for the firm I was associated-with. This engaged me with a broker-dealer headquartered in Providence, RI who happened to be owned by a large insurance company with a home office in Newark, NJ. Long story short, I traveled regularly to Providence and because NYC was (and still is) a financial center across the river from Newark, on occasion I traveled there.
I stayed at the new Vista International Hotel for meetings. This was a Marriott property located at One World Trade Center in lower Manhattan. Back during COVID I picked a book from my library to read and lo-and-behold it contained a bookmark, a page from a hotel notepad. The Vista International. That sent a chill down my spine as this hotel is no more. It was destroyed in the collapse of the twin towers as a consequence of the terror attacks on 9/11. But I digress.
During my travels I came to know New York City - which happened to be a very different place four decades ago. Times Square was a collection of seedy porn establishments and boom box stores. There was petty crime to accompany the graft, corruption and garbage. It was during this time I learned of a brash, local real estate developer with an outsized libido who always seemed to be working an angle.
One of the stories making the rounds included this developer's pitch for a seminar or workshop. Attendees could expect to learn about his "Midas Touch"; and the path to wealth in the Manhattan real estate world would be revealed. It wasn't a cheap date as the price of admission was something north of a thousand dollars. A tidy sum back in those days but the hook was that there would be an opportunity to have a photo taken with the mogul himself.
As it turned-out, the seminar was supposedly conducted by a low level minion and the photo-op was with a life size cardboard cut-out.
I thought to myself; Huh? This guy is nothing but a con man. A con man from Queens. That was my first impression. And first impressions count for a lot. For me anyway. Whether or not this narrative was factual it sure foreshadowed the much larger scam later perpetrated by Trump University. Which makes the tale believable. And perhaps explains the general NYC animus for Mr. Trump that persists to this day.
By the way, you can purchase your own life size cardboard Trump cutout from Walmart. It will set you back $50 to $120; but that's a far cry from getting fleeced for maybe a couple of grand forty years ago.
With the passage of time Manhattan has cleaned-up its act. The porno shops and boom box stores are gone from Times Square. As a vibrant retail and entertainment district this was home base for a family vacation a couple of years ago. There is still garbage on the sidewalk; but at least it's bagged.
Just returned from running the trail camera trap line.
One smashed cam still strapped to a tree and two others on the ground with busted straps. All had their SD cards.
Just like all the household appliances self-destructing in 2024, maybe it’s the same with the cameras?
The smashed cam was way-old so no big deal. Perhaps the memory cards will tell the tale.
Meanwhile, from a couple weeks ago, the fox squirrels have been busy gathering acorns.
Stay-tuned….
What we did was incredible. We got the largest tax cut in history.
- Donald Trump
The valid means by which to measure the size of any administration's tax cut is to compare it to the size of the economy at that particular point in time.
Using this yardstick, the tax cuts passed into law during the tenure of President Trump was the eighth largest of the past century.
This puts it significantly behind cuts enacted under Presidents Reagan and Obama.
I'm old enough to remember and was working pretty damn hard to launch a professional practice when Reagan signed into law the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. ERTA - sometimes called the Kemp-Roth Tax Cut - was enacted by the 97th Congress and targeted to encourage economic growth. It was seismic.
And remember - The Trump tax cuts favored individuals and large corporations who have significantly more income and personal wealth than you and I have. Middle America and small business start-ups got the equivalent of sloppy seconds.
The Reagan tax cut was more than four times larger in scale. Donald Trump is a liar.
Nothing new under the sun.
Composed by Lou Reed in 1970 this song was subsequently released by the Velvet Underground in 1973. Another really good year for this blogger.
Most of readers will remember the amped-up, hard rock, version with an extended introduction which was written by Steve Hunter and recorded live in 1973. It was subsequently released on Reed's Rock 'n' Roll Animal album in 1974.
This is a really good cover by one of my favorite artists hailing from our friendly neighbors to the north.
Sweet Jane.....
For the longest time I fretted-over the fact that I hadn't seen any turkey poults (young); either in person or on the trail cameras. The wet, wet spring weather is good for suppressing infestations of spongy (gypsy) moth caterpillars but generally not so good for ground-nesting birds. Then, all of a sudden, the turkeys materialized. Hens and their newly-hatched young'uns.
Many of the poults were smaller - implying they were hatchlings from a second laying - and going into the fall their are certainly more grouse-sized poults than what would ordinarily be observed.
Better smaller than none at all. Nature works that way occasionally. Come to think of it I'm seeing some awfully small fawns too.
From the trail camera trap line are these photos and videos....
Small birds
And a smallish fawn
Spot The International Space Station!
Time: Wed Sep 25 8:46 PM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 56°, Appears: 10° above WNW, Disappears: 56° above WNW
You can even see the ‘wings’ of the solar array…
Look who's back.
And just in time for hunting season.
Look for this distinctive constellation in the southern night sky....
A strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush; the title of this post was coined by James Carville as a missive to campaign workers. I've written about the subject several times over the years.
Last week the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by fifty basis points (half of a percentage point). Mortgage rates are down. Inflation has basically been beaten into submission having settled at historically normal levels. Gasoline is below $3 a gallon in many locations. Our nation is a net-exporter of petroleum and natural gas. Unemployment remains low. The financial markets are out-performing. I look at the economic landscape thru the lens of a recovering financial advisor and happen to think that the fundamental economic picture is pretty darn good.
Nevertheless, former president Trump tells us we're basically an economic failed state. His followers believe it too. Polling data from the New York Times and Siena College reveals that only 2 percent of voters believe the economy is excellent. 21 percent call it good. 28 percent consider it fair; while nearly half, 49 percent, rated it poor.
I do not minimize the reality that some individuals and families find themselves in economic circumstances that are diminished. Maybe they've struggled since the Great Recession of 2008 with the 2020 COVID-induced recession delivering a one-two punch. Yet, clearly there is a perception problem; and it is a problem that the Democrats own and continue to struggle-with. I happen to believe that this perception disconnect has its roots in something of an idealized view of where voters were in the pre-COVID years versus where they are today.
It is a fact that before COVID inflation and mortgage rates were lower. Unemployment was slightly lower than today. And, of course, all of that ended with the 2020 recession resulting in a ginormous spike in unemployment, negative economic growth and a crash in the financial markets.
Since then, and over the last four years, growth in household income has been higher year-over-year, the markets are at record highs and the US economy rivals any other similarly-advanced economy globally.
Kamala Harris needs to work on her economic messaging.
If she wants to win the election.
I posted some recent coyote photos and video vignettes a couple of days ago. Coincidentally, Google Photos nudged me with these from September 18, 2023.
If you examine the photos closely, included in the third image is an adult with a stick in his/her mouth playing with the young'uns......
Our cities are flooded with illegal aliens. Americans are being squeezed out of the labor force and their jobs are taken. And by the way, you know who's taking the jobs? The jobs that are created, 107 percent of those jobs are taken by illegal aliens.
- Donald Trump
Nope. Undocumented immigrants are not taking jobs from US citizens. At least in any meaningful way. Employment for our country's native-born has increased by more than 7.2 million since 2021.
Furthermore, employment for foreign-born workers increased by almost 5 million over the same period. This figure includes undocumented, legally-admitted immigrants, refugees, students and temporary arrivals such as the seasonal workers that you'll find here on the peninsula.
According to the astronomical definition, in the Northern Hemisphere, fall begins with the autumnal equinox or September equinox on Sunday....
Michael David Fuller, better known as Blaze Foley, was an American country music singer-songwriter from Austin, TX. Close to Townes Van Zandt, his music was closely influenced by this friendship. The origin of his stage name was influenced by his admiration of musician Red Foley and stripper Blaze Starr. He also went by the names Deputy Dawg and the Duct Tape Messiah.
February 1, 1998 Foley was at a home in the Bouldin Creek neighborhood of Austin when he was shot and killed by the son of a friend whom he had accused of stealing from his father.
At his funeral, his casket was covered in duct tape by his friends. Townes Van Zandt later shared a story about going the Foley's grave site to dig-up his body and recover a pawn ticket that Foley had for Van Zandt's guitar.
Here's a nice cover of Clay Pigeons by John Prine; from Austin.....
The VELCRO® brand of hook and loop was invented by a man named George de Mestral in the 1940's while hunting in the Jura mountains in Switzerland.
Mr. de Mestral, a Swiss engineer, realized that the tiny hooks of the cockle-burs were stuck on his pants and in his dog's fur and wondered how they attached themselves.
From our walk this morning there were sticker pickers.
Millions of them.
It took a couple of hours but the FURminator got most of them removed.
This year the September full moon is called the Harvest
Moon.
The Harvest moon can occur in
either September or October because it coincides with an astronomical event –
the autumnal equinox. The full Moon that occurs nearest to the equinox
(September 22 or 23 depending-upon your time zone) takes on the name Harvest
Moon rather than its traditional name – the Full Corn Moon or Barley Moon. The name comes from this moon’s ability to
shine light when it is needed the most – to bring in the harvest.
The indigenous Anishinaabe people of the our Great Lakes region call this moon Waatebagaa-giizis or Waabaagbagaa-giizis, the Leaves Turning or Leaves Falling moon.
This full moon also happens to be the second of four super moons for 2024. It will appear about 6% larger and 16% brighter than the average full moon.
In the Northern Hemisphere and in our time
zone the Harvest Moon rises tonight.
You can learn more here.
And enjoy the music.....
With clear viewing conditions tonight there is something you can take-in by naked eye, binoculars or telescope.
After moonrise you should be able to spot Saturn to the left of the waxing gibbous moon.
Catch it early or watch it all night long - You pick. As the evening lengthens the moon's orbit will take it closer to Saturn.
Full moon on-deck for tomorrow.
Check back for details in the morning.
Turns-out my pal, Braumeister, has a Level Two charger in his garage just like I do.
If I have to travel to the Naked City and stay overnight if he and the missus are in town I might be able to score a spot on the fold out couch and top-off my battery overnight.
If he's reading this he might get a chuckle from the title...
If so, it was a monumental continental leap.
It is the result of a perfect combination of sunlight dappled through tree leaves and shadowed on a doe.
It's an interesting photographic result.
You never know what a trail camera will capture. One day it might be alien spaceship thruster backwash; another day it is something found on the Serengeti.....
So here we are; several months since Joe Biden abdicated the throne and Vice President Harris and Governor Walz have turned the election campaign on it's head. If you watch the polls the democrats have turned the tables in several battle ground states and possibly reversed the trend in others and nationally. What I would give to be a fly on the wall in Trump or Harris campaign HQ. But let's not get over our skis - is this a sugar high, a honeymoon or an implosion? No way to know for sure. Besides, polls have been sketchy the last couple-three national elections; and I happen to believe that the outcome remains a tossup. So I want to speak to the subject of gambling, or wagering.
I've touched-upon this subject from time to time; sometimes from the POV of a financial guy and sometimes outright humor. Back in the first week of June I took a stab at a topic I had been reading-up on and listening about; a subject that I thought was maybe gonna gain some traction - that of actually wagering on US Elections. With every passing week it seems to be gaining traction now that we have a real competitive campaign.
For some time government regulators with oversight on Wall Street have been trying to clamp down on growing election wagering in the US. With a completely reconfigured presidential race a tsunami of trading on this fall's election has taken-off. At the time of the publication of this post, traders (gamblers) favor Harris over Trump.
PredictIt, formerly a largely academic pursuit and now off-shored was witness in July to its busiest wagering volume reaching roughly 120 million contracts - a spike of more than 500% over June. $1.1 billion has been bet on crypto-based Polymarket since June, according to Dune Analytics, and 88% of that has been political bets on the U.S. election.
Consequently, this has the increased attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) who has proposed rule-making that would expressly outlaw wagering of this sort with scattered support in the US Senate.
As a recovering financial guy with almost forty years in the wealth management biz I've seen more than my share of feeding frenzies in the equity, fixed-income, commodities, futures and other derivatives markets; and market bubbles, more often-than not, end badly. After-which seasoned veterans, put on their boots, roll-up their sleeves, slip-on their autopsy gloves and sift thru the bloody detritus of mostly novice online traders who got themselves slaughtered chasing phantom profits.
Markets always correct.
Nevertheless, none of this is outlawed or banned. Financial markets are regulated and there is ample opportunity for the unguided to squander their savings on dreams, brass rings or Pumpkins and Mice. The CFTC needn't ban wagering on election outcomes as much as they might regulate them with reasonable guardrails just like any other market.
The UK has grappled with their own tempest in a teapot with the revelation that some conservative members of parliament got caught placing bets on the timing of their recent snap election. Did it impact the July 4th outcome? Who knows? Considering the level of outrage when this got found-out it's entirely possible. Should politicians be barred from betting on elections? Or allowed to do so at their own political peril?
A week and a half ago, a federal judge cleared the way for Americans to place bets on the outcome of congressional elections via a prediction-market startup. A ruling that may potentially expand further legalized wagers on elections in this country.
Wagering requires bettors to put their money where their mouth is. Betting markets may be useful when politics are chaotic. With skin in the game facts displace misinformation.
Newton's First Law of Motion, also known as the Law of Inertia, states that an object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.
Tariffs are not going to drive prices higher. It's just going to cause countries that have been ripping us off for years, like China and so many others. In all fairness to China it's going to just force them to pay us a lot of money.
- Donald Trump
Tuesday's debate raised this issue. I have opined on this subject more times than I can remember. All you need to do is type the word "tariff" in the search feature found in the upper left corner of the homepage for this blog.
Donald Trump seems to be enamored by tariffs. He wielded his tariff bludgeon frequently during his tenure as president. And he continues to express his fondness for tariffs on the campaign trail today.
Economics 101 - When you subject imported goods to tariffs (a form of taxation) the cost of those goods generally increases by the full amount of the tariff. Translation: Consumers pay them. And they contribute to inflation in our economy.
Fact: In my first year of retirement we purchased a Kawasaki Mule from a local implement dealer. Trump tariffs added more than $800 dollars to the purchase price.
Thanks for nothing.
Kinda cloudy with ambient light reflection from the moon behind me to the southwest.
Nevertheless, ISS buzzing the house from overhead.
Time: Fri Sep 13 8:37 PM, Visible: 5 min, Max Height: 66°, Appears: 10° above WSW, Disappears: 30° above NE
Earlier this year when we were on family vacation in the United Kingdom we scored tickets to see Van Morrison at Royal Albert Hall in London.
This was one of the songs in the play list that evening.
Composed by my favorite Irish singer-songwriter this was the title song of his 1995 album of the same name. It's one of the most popular tunes of his later material.
It peaked at number 65 in the UK when release and later reached the number 12 spot on the US Billboard Rock Digital Song Sales Chart. Who knew there was such a chart?
Days Like This.....
Fresh from the trail camera trapline are mama hens tending to their flock of turkey poults....
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