With so many people sidelined and not working this nation is engaged in a dangerous flirtation with an economy that could crater into economic ruin. Maybe even plunge into a depression. We need to return to work to avoid this serious risk. And do so safely and without chancing a resurgence of coronavirus infections.
It is likely that many of you have heard or read of the White House’s guidelines for the easing of
social distancing orders that have been put in place to slow the spread of the
coronavirus. Implementation of these
guidelines rests with the states.
There
are three phases in the proposed guidelines - We are presently somewhere about to
commence Phase 1.
Communities would enter Phase 1 when
the statistics show a downward trajectory of reported illnesses within a 14-day
period, and when hospitals were able to treat all patients without resorting to
crisis care.
In addition, before
we can enter Phase 1, there would need to be a robust testing program in place for all at-risk healthcare workers.
If those criteria are met, the
guidelines would still require vulnerable individuals—the elderly and those
with pre-existing health conditions—to continue to shelter in place. Schools would remain closed and visits to
senior living facilities and hospitals would still be forbidden.
People who are not at risk would
go back to work, provided that they maintain appropriate social
distancing. Large venues (the guidelines
mention sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues and places of worship)
would be allowed to open under unspecified strict physical distancing protocols. Elective surgeries could also resume, and
gyms could open. But bars would remain
closed.
Nevertheless, for all of us in the general population testing
for COVID-19 continues to be flawed. Last month the Trump administration promised
27 million tests would be available by the end of March. As we approach the end
of April only about 4 million tests have been performed. To safely reopen the country and boost economic activity health
experts say that we have to perform upwards of 30 million tests a week to properly track the virus. We’re presently performing around I million
tests a week. This is a monumental challenge that the states
have to rise-to.
Concurrently there needs to be contact tracing – trace, track and isolate those individuals exposed to someone
infected with the virus. And for those
infected – a plan for isolating them under quarantine. Each governor of each state would be wise to develop
a plan.
Phase 2 kicks in if the states and regions
enter Phase 1 and show no evidence of a rebound in cases. Vulnerable individuals would continue to self-isolate,
but schools and organized youth activities would be allowed to resume. Bars would also be allowed to open, although
the protocols specify diminished
standing-room occupancy.
If
there is no evidence of a rebound, then the state or region could enter Phase
3, which would not actually be a full return to normalcy. There would still be physical distancing
protocols in workplaces, large venues, gyms and bars. But employers would resume unrestricted
staffing of worksites.
The guidelines prominently make no mention of increased testing other than
for healthcare workers. It’s
possible that, even if the state and local leaders sound the all clear, that people will likely still want to know
whether the people in their workplace or communities are contagious.
It’s all in the testing for those of us in the general population.
Stay tuned.....
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