Thucydides Trap

Professor Graham Allison of the Harvard Kennedy School coined the phrase Thucydides’ Trap.  Based upon the famous quote from Thucydides: It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.  This is used to explain the likelihood of conflict between a rising power and a currently dominant one. 

This usage has even spread to Chinese President Xi Jinping who several years ago said: We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap – destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers … Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations.

Worth thinking about in light of Chinese territorial advances in the South China Sea and building and militarizing artificial reefs.  The Chinese are not stupid and they've tested two American presidents early in their terms of office to see how far they can push before getting push-back.  In the waning days of the Obama administration they smell opportunity which explains the seizure of the Navy's underwater research drone yesterday.

And so it begins.  Is Mr. Trump up to the task or will he rise to the bait?

The Atlantic has a great take on this and you can read about it here.