Inflation Steady as Fed Considers Rate Path

 

In the event you were interested the numbers are in today  

Inflation ended the year on a subdued note, as the administration's 2025 import taxes (tariffs) worked their way through to sticker prices.

Consumer prices were 2.7 percent higher than a year ago, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Tuesday, or 2.6 percent when stripping out volatile food and energy prices.

That was about in line with the number for November, which was artificially depressed by irregularities arising from a lapse in data collection during the government shutdown. And it was only slightly slower than the pace at the beginning of 2025, before the prices of durable goods like cars and toys began rising as President Trump imposed steep tariffs on most countries.

The report is the last of its kind before the Federal Reserve meets again in two weeks. With the employment report for December showing the unemployment rate sinking back to a relatively healthy 4.4 percent, officials are expected to hold interest rates steady after cutting them three times since September.

The Consumer Price Index was pulled down by the cost of used cars and trucks, which fell 1.1 percent over the month, and have risen only 1.6 percent over the past year. Yearly growth in that category peaked at 45 percent in June 2021, before turning negative in 2023 and 2024. Airline fares, on the other hand, unexpectedly jumped 5.2 percent, potentially reflecting record travel during the holidays. And the price of groceries also came in hot, at 0.7 percent over the month and 2.4 percent since this time a year ago. That was the fastest one-month gain in grocery prices since 2022, driven by higher prices for items such as meats, dairy and coffee.

Inflation has been pulled down over the past year by apartment rents, which have been sinking from pandemic-era highs after cities like Denver, Phoenix and Austin, Texas, saw a boom of new supply. In December, rents rose 3.1 percent over the year, while the cost of owning a home has risen 3.4 percent.

Energy prices overall have risen 2.3 percent over the year, but that masks big differences between sources: the price of gasoline was down 3.4 percent, while electricity prices rose by 6.7 percent.

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, last month said he expected the peak impact of tariffs on price pressures to materialize in the first quarter of the year, meaning that the next couple of inflation reports will be even more closely scrutinized.  Of course, that was before the DOJ locked horns with the Fed with a probe that the Fed chair attributed to political retribution over its approach to monetary policy.

President Trump seized on the inflation report to demand that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates swiftly, as he renewed his public attacks on Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the central bank.

Yesterday, and overnight the Senate, former Fed Chairs and the business community started circling their wagons around the Powell with the admonition that meddling  with the independence of the Federal Reserve will likely increase inflation expectations and probably increase rates over time.*

Watch the bond markets, folks.

Meanwhile, any wagers on who blinks first?______________________________________________________________ 

*The New York Times Breaking news: Inflation holds steady as Fed considers rate path