Thursday, September 24, 2020

Mixed Signals

In further news today the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19 was 870,000 (840,000 expected). 

Continuing claims for the week ending September 12 totaled 12.580 million (12.275 million expected). 

Growth has slowed sharply over the past three months with layoffs picking-up and the labor market stalling in response to rising infection rates and federal support for the unemployed ending.  

When Larry Kudlow tells you this is a V-shaped recovery he is simply blowing sunshine up your patoot. The Trump recession has a long slog ahead of it before a return to normalcy.

Then there is this:  

New single-family home sales increased 4.8% in August to an annual 1.011 million (890,000 expected).  Sales are up 43.2% from a year ago.

What gives?

A likely explanation is pent-up demand from buyers that were sidelined earlier in the year as a consequence of lockdowns and the economic uncertainty attributed to the pandemic.  A contributing factor is near-zero interest rates.  Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages are at a record low of 2.9%.  Fifteen year fixed-rate mortgages are presently at 2.4%.  

This home purchase blip should slow as excess inventory shrinks.

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